PERKEMBANGAN PASAR MODAL INDONESIA

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PERKEMBANGAN PASAR MODAL INDONESIA

• Prof. Dr. Eduardus Tandelilin
• KULIAH UMUM
• JURUSAN MANAJEMEN
• FE UBAYA
• 23 Juni 2006

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OUTLINE

• PENGERTIAN PASAR MODAL INDONESIA
• PERKEMBANGAN PASAR MODAL INDONESIA
• KONSEP PENTING INVESTASI

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PERSONAL LIFE STAGES
 
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PENGERTIAN PASAR MODAL
Pengertian Pasar Modal
PASAR MODAL
Pemodal/Investor Yang memiliki kelebihan dana
Perusahaan, Institusi Pemerintah Yang membutuhkan
dana tambahan
Dana
Efek
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PENGERTIAN PASAR MODAL
Struktur Pasar Modal
DEPARTEMEN KEUANGAN BAPEPAM-LK
Lembaga Penyimpanan Penyelesaian
Bursa Efek
Lembaga Kliring Penjaminan
Perusahaan Efek
Investor
Profesi Penunjang
Emiten
Lembaga Penunjang

• Penjamin Emisi Efek
• Perantara Pedagang Efek
• Manajer Investasi

• Biro Administrasi Efek
• Kustodian
• Wali Amanat

• Akuntan Publik
• Notaris
• Konsultan Hukum
• Perusahaan Penilai

• Perusahaan
• Institusi Pemerintah
• Reksa Dana

• Investor Domestik
• Perorangan
• Institusi
• Investor Asing
• Perorangan
• Institusi

• Penasehat Investasi
• Perusahaan Pemeringkat Efek

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PENGERTIAN PASAR MODAL
Types of stock market transactions
Initial public offering (IPO) An initial public
offer occurs when a company offers stock for sale
to the public for the first time.
Primary market The market in which new securities
are originally sold to investors.
Secondary market The market in which previously
issued securities trade among investors.
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PENGERTIAN PASAR MODAL
Proses Perdagangan pada Pasar Perdana
Penjamin Emisi
Emiten
Investor
Agen Penjual
Dana
Efek
Proses Perdagangan pada Pasar Sekunder
BURSA EFEK
Broker Beli
Investor Beli
Investor Jual
Broker Jual
Dana
Efek
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PENGERTIAN PASAR MODAL
Sebelum Remote Trading
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Nasabah melakukan order
Proses order
Verifikasi validasi order
Penyam- paian Order Ke Floor Trader Via Tlp.
Memasuk- kan order Ke JATS
Konfirmasi status order Ke kantor broker
Konfirmasi matched Order ke nasabah
Proses Back Office
Anggota Bursa (Perusahaan Efek)
Bursa Efek Jakarta
Anggota Bursa (Perusahaan Efek)
Sesudah Remote Trading
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2
3
4
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Nasabah melakukan order
Proses order
Verifikasi validasi order
Konfirmasi matched Order ke nasabah
Proses Back Office
Anggota Bursa (Perusahaan Efek)
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PENGERTIAN PASAR MODAL
INVESTMENT PRODUCTS
About to launch
In the market
Stocks Corporate Bonds Government
Bonds Rights Warrants Mutual Funds Index Futures
LQ45 Single Stock Options
Asset-Backed Securities Indonesian Depository
Receipts
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PENGERTIAN PASAR MODAL
Ringkasan Instrumen Pasar Modal Indonesia
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PENGERTIAN PASAR MODAL
MARKET CLASSIFICATION BY ASSET TYPES
FINANCIAL MARKETS AND ASSETS
DERIVATIVE INSTRUMENTS
CAPITAL MARKETS Common stock
Preferred stock Partnership Interests
Bonds - Corporate - U.S. Treasury -
Municipal Mortgages related
securities MONEY MARKETS Federal
Funds Commercial paper
Certificates of deposit Treasury bills
Bankers Acceptances CURRENCY MARKETS
NON FINANCIAL MARKETS AND ASSETS
Commodities (spot) Real estate
Collectibles

• FORWARD CONTRACTS
• Commodities
• Currencies
• FUTURES CONTRACTS
• Commodities - Agricultural futures
• - Industrial
  material futures
• - Precious metal futures
• Financial assets - Bond and other interest
  rate futures
• - Bond-index futures
• -
  Stock-index futures
• - Currency futures
• Miscellaneous futures
• - Price-index
  futures
• - Freight-index futures
• OPTIONS CONTRACTS
• OTC options
• Listed options - Options on stocks
• - Options on
  stock indexes
• - Options on
  bonds

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PENGERTIAN PASAR MODAL
Indeks Harga Saham
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JUMLAH EMISI SAHAM DI BEJ
PERKEMBANGAN PASAR MODAL INDONESIA
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PERKEMBANGAN IHSG JAN05 JUNI 06
PERKEMBANGAN PASAR MODAL INDONESIA
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PERBANDINGAN IHSG DENGAN INDEKS NEGARA ASEAN
PERKEMBANGAN PASAR MODAL INDONESIA
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INDEKS SAHAM BEBERAPA NEGARA LAINNYA
PERKEMBANGAN PASAR MODAL INDONESIA
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PERBANDINGAN VOLUME PERDAGANGAN (INVESTOR
INDONESIA Vs ASING)
PERKEMBANGAN PASAR MODAL INDONESIA
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PERKEMBANGAN PASAR MODAL INDONESIA
Where we are
The JSX Market Cap accounted only 0,13 of the
Global Market Cap
The JSX trading value accounted only 0,04 of the
global trading value
Source 2002 Annual Repot of the World Federation
Exchanges
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PERKEMBANGAN PASAR MODAL INDONESIA
Numbers of Investors
Total Population
Domestic Investors
1 m
3,5 m
Singapore
1,3 m
7,3 m
Switzerland
3 m
18 m
Malaysia
70,000
220 m
Indonesia
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JUMLAH EMISI OBLIGASI
PERKEMBANGAN PASAR MODAL INDONESIA
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KINERJA REKSADANA
PERKEMBANGAN PASAR MODAL INDONESIA
??
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REDEMPTION Vs SUBSCRIPTION REKSADANA
PERKEMBANGAN PASAR MODAL INDONESIA
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PERKEMBANGAN PASAR MODAL INDONESIA
REDEMPTION Vs SUBSCRIPTION REKSADANA BERDASAR
JENIS REKSADANA
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PERKEMBANGAN PASAR MODAL INDONESIA
PERDAGANGAN KONTRAK BERJANGKA INDEKS BES
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KONSEP PENTING INVESTASI
INVESTMENT PRINCIPLES

• Return and risk
• Time horizon
• Concentration and diversification
• Market timing and volatility

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KONSEP PENTING INVESTASI
RISK

• What is a risk
• Probability of losing money
• Probability that a given set of objective will
  not be met
• Investing money to the wrong assets

Risk is relative. Risk is subjective.
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KONSEP PENTING INVESTASI
Risk-Return Trade-Off for Various Investment
Vehicles
Return E(r)
Futures
Arts Antiques
Coins Stamps
Commercial Real Estate
Foreign Common Stock
Real Estate (personal home)
Foreign Corporate Bonds
US Corporate Bonds
Foreign Government Bonds
US Government Bonds
T-Bills
Risk ( s )
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KONSEP PENTING INVESTASI
RETURN AND RISK

• The greatest long-term risk of stocks is not
  owning them

12.0
Returns before and after taxes, 1926-2002 Source
Ibbotson Associates
10.0
Before Taxes
After Taxes
10.2
8.0
7.7
Compound Annual Return
6.0
5.5
4.0
4.0
3.8
3.1
2.0
2.2
0.0
Stocks
Bonds
Cash
Inflation
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KONSEP PENTING INVESTASI
DIVERSIFICATION

• Diversify to reduce risk or increase
  return(figures based on period from 1970-2000)

Fixed Income Portfolio
Lower Risk Portfolio
Higher Return Portfolio
Return 9.1 Risk 7.8
Return 9.1 Risk 6.4
Return 9.6 Risk 7.8
Risk is measured by standard deviation. Risk and
return are based on annual data over the period
1970-2002. Portfolios presented are based on
Modern Portfolio Theory.

Source Ibbotson Associates.
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KONSEP PENTING INVESTASI
MUTUAL FUNDS
A mutual fund is a scheme whereby investors
pooled their savings together into a fund which
is then managed by a Fund Manager according to
guidelines set out in the prospectus
Investment Decision

MutualFund
Investors
Fund Manager
Safekeep assets
Watchdog for unitholders
Custodian
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KONSEP PENTING INVESTASI
RISK RETURN TRADE OFF
HIGHER VOLATILITY
MUTUAL FUNDS
RETURN
LOWER VOLATILITY

• Source IFIC.

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KONSEP PENTING INVESTASI
MARKET TIMING VOLATILITY

• Reduction of Risk over Time 1926-2000

Each bar shows the range of compound annual
returns for each asset class over the period
1926-2002 Source IbbotsonAssociates
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KONSEP PENTING INVESTASI
THE ART OF ASSET ALLOCATION
 
Asset allocation is the way you divide your money
among the basic asset classes stocks, bonds,
and cash investments. Determining the correct
asset allocation can be critical to your
investment success. Stock category Value,
growth, small cap, large cap, foreign stock. Bond
category Government, Corporate bond. Cash
category Saving, Deposits, Money Market
Accounts. Stocks, as a broad category, have the
highest average total return over the long run,
but they are often the most volatile in the short
run. Cash equivalent have the lowest return, but
are the least volatile. Bond volatility falls in
the middle. Even if stocks outperform the other
asset classes over a period of years, they do not
do so every year.
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KONSEP PENTING INVESTASI
ASSET CLASS PERFORMANCE
 
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KONSEP PENTING INVESTASI
MAKING THE RIGHT ASSET ALLOCATION DECISION
Strategic Tactical Asset Allocation
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KONSEP PENTING INVESTASI
WHERE SHOULD YOU BE?

• On the Efficient Frontier
• If youre not sure how much risk to accept, you
  can explore optimal portfolio mixes at different
  levels of risk. The optimized range of these
  portfolios is called the efficient frontier.

13.5
All Stocks
13.0
90/10
80/20
12.5
70/30
12.0
60/40
SOURCE Stocks SP 500 Index. Bonds Lehman
Bros.. US Long-Term Government Bond Index.
Standard deviation is a statistical measure of
the degree to which an individual value in a
probability distribution tends to vary from the
mean. Results are from 1970-1998. Past
performance does not guarantee future results.
All investments carry some level of risk.
11.5
50/50
RETURN
40/60
11.0
30/70
10.5
20/80
10/90
10.0
9.5
All Bonds
9.0
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
Risk (Standard Deviations)
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KONSEP PENTING INVESTASI
DOMESTIC STOCK INVESTMENT CLASSES
Domestic Equities
Large-Cap
Large-Cap Value
Large-Cap Growth
Size
Small-Cap Value
Small-Cap Growth
Small-Cap
Value
Growth
Style
Small cap newer, faster-growing company which
carry higher risk than larger cap company which
are mature, established well known company with
steadier streams of income and profits. A value
company generally has a lower P/E ratio, a higher
book value vs. market price ratio, and a slower
rate of growth than growth companies. Growth
companies generally has higher rates of growth,
higher market prices relative to earnings and
book value, and are generally considered riskier
and more volatile than value companies, but
tend to have higher overall returns.
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KONSEP PENTING INVESTASI
INTERNATIONAL STOCK INVESTMENT CLASSES
International Equities
Developed Markets
Developed Markets Small-Cap
Developed Markets Large-Cap
Size of Economy
Emerging Markets Small-Cap
Emerging Markets Large-Cap
Emerging Markets
Size of Stocks
Small-Cap
Large-Cap
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KONSEP PENTING INVESTASI
REBALANCING THE PORTFOLIO
By rebalancing, you may give up some short-term
gains if you reduce your holdings of winning
stocks prematurely, but youll also miss the big
losses when and if they collapse.
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KONSEP PENTING INVESTASI
MODELLING PORTFOLIO
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KONSEP PENTING INVESTASI
FOUR CORE MODEL PORTFOLIOS
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THANK YOU