Problem Solving Decision Making

1
Problem Solving /Decision Making

• Kepner-Tregoe
• The New Rational Manager
• Chapter 2

2
Chapter 2 Contents

• Conditions Skills of Problem Solving
• Structure of a Problem
• The Process of Problem Analysis (PA)

3
People and Problems

• People like to solve problems and will seek them
  out if four conditions are met
• they posses the skills need to solve the problem
• they experience success in using those skills
• they are rewarded for being successful
• they do not fear failure

4
Problem Analysis

• Problem Analysis (PA) provides the skills needed
  to explain any situation in which an expected
  level of performance is not being achieved and in
  which the cause of the unacceptable performance
  is unknown.

5
PA Continued

• We are concerned with the way in which
  information is used to approach deviation in
  performance.
• Decision making based on FACTS and DATA!

6
Problems Not Solved

• Weve all experienced the solved problem that
  isnt really solved.
• Problem solving by extrapolation
• need solution quick - no time
• rely on memories
• past similar problems
• past successes

7
K-Ts View of Problem Solving vs Decision Making

• A decision requires answers to questions of the
  form
• How?
• Which?
• A problem always requires an answer to the
  question
• Why?

8
The Two Forms of Problems

• Performance once met the SHOULD and no longer
  does.
• See Figure 1 (W p 25, B p 37)
• ACTUAL performance has always been below SHOULD.
• See Figure 2 (W p 25, B p 37)

9
Techniques of PA

• State the Problem
• Specify the Problem
• Develop Possible Causes
• Test Possible Causes
• Determine the Most Probable Cause
• Verify Assumptions, Observe, Experiment, or Try a
  Fix and Monitor

10
Case History

• Review the Leaking Soybean Oil Filter case
• It is used extensively throughout the remainder
  of the chapter
• Also review the PA_Worksheet template

11
Problem Statement

• Name the Problem
• Be precise
• Is the deviation from SHOULD clear
• Is the cause unknown
• Case
• Number One Filter Leaking Oil
• An important paragraph (W p 29, not in B but I
  will provide)

12
Specify the Problem

• Describe the problem in detail using four
  dimensions
• What - identify the deviation we are trying to
  explain
• Where - location of the deviation
• When - timing of the deviation
• Extent - magnitude of the deviation
• See Fig 3, (W p 30, B p 41-42) - IS col.

13
IS and IS NOT

• Any problem can be described by answering the IS
  specifying questions
• question wording may need to be modified to suit
  especially for a human performance problem
• establish problem detection facts data
• Next we need a basis of comparison
• What COULD BE but IS NOT

14
IS NOT

• Nothing is more conducive to sound analysis than
  some relevant basis of comparison
• Search in all four dimensions looking for Closest
  Logical Comparison
• This narrows the scope of the search for cause
  isolates distinguishing features
• Fig 4, (W p 33, B p 44-45) - IS NOT col.

15
Develop Possible Causes

• We will use Distinctions and Changes to lead us
  to Possible Causes.
• As we proceed, remember
• knowledge and experience are key
• brainstorm - dont close too quickly
• cast a large net

16
Distinctions

• Ask what is distinctive about (the IS data) when
  compared with (the IS NOT data)?
• for all specifying questions in all dimensions.
• See Figure 5, (W p 36-37, B p 48-49)

17
Changes

• We now search for the of change between
  acceptable and unacceptable performance (remember
  Figure 1)
• What changed in, on, around, or about each
  Distinction?
• See Figure 6, (W p 39, B p 51) - Distinction
  column

18
Possible Causes

• If all relevant information about a problem has
  been obtained, the explanation of cause will
  emerge
• Ask how could this distinction (or this change)
  have produced the deviation described in the
  problem statement.
• See Possible Causes on pages (W p 40- 41, B p
  52-53)

19
Test Possible Causes

• Test Possible Causes
• Does it explain the WHAT, WHERE, WHEN, and
  EXTENT?
• Does it require no (or minimal) additional
  assumptions to make it work?
• Are necessary assumptions reasonable?
• Identify the most likely possible cause.

20
Confirm Cause

• Confirmation seeks to verify the cause and effect
  relationship
• additional information
• additional actions
• Observe
• Experiment
• Fix and Monitor

21
Most Common Causes of Failure

• Using inaccurate or vague information
• Insufficiently identification of key distinctions
  and changes
• Allowing assumptions to distort judgement
• PA is a process, not a Panacea
• review concluding comments (W p 46 - 47, B p 54 -
  55)