Problem Solving and Decision Making

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Problem Solving and Decision Making
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• Problem solving involves making a series of
  decisions
• deciding that something is wrong,
• deciding what the problem is, and
• deciding how to solve it.

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• Successful problem solving depends on good
  decisions.
• Decision A choice from among available
  alternatives.

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• Much of the supervisors job is making decisions.
  
• In many cases, decisions are made without giving
  any thought to the process of deciding.
• Supervisors will automatically decide something
• because it feels right or
• because a decision has been made on a similar
  issue in the past.
• Decision making can be improved by understanding
  how the decision-making process works in theory
  and in practice.

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Rational Model

• The rational model of decision making includes
• a. identify the problem
• b. identify the alternative solutions
• c. gather and organize the facts
• d. evaluate the alternatives
• e. select and implement the best alternative
• f. get feedback and take corrective action.

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• The importance of understanding and using a model
  is that the decision will be the result of facts
  and analysis rather than of opinions and feelings.

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• Identification of the real problem is extremely
  important.
• If the wrong cause and solution for that cause is
  selected, the problem will still be there.
• Deming says that most problems are unknown or
  unknowable.

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• There are two basic types of problems
• simple, or acute and
• long-standing, or chronic, problems.

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• Simple problems occur suddenly, and the cause of
  the problem may be obvious.
• An example is when the electricity goes off
  because a fuse is blown.
• The chronic, or recurring, problem is usually
  more complex, and it is difficult to determine
  the causes and solutions.
• This type of problem can benefit from the
  conscious use of a problem-solving or
  decision-making model.

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Bounded rationality

• Choosing an alternative that meets minimum
  standards of acceptability.
• Solutions that meet minimum standards will likely
  result in a return of the problem, since there is
  no margin of safety that will allow for slight
  changes and desirable outcomes.

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Recency Syndrome

• The tendency to most easily remember events that
  have occurred recently.
• To test this concept, try to remember what
  happened yesterday.
• Now try to remember eight or ten days ago with
  the same kind of detail.

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Stereotyping

• Rigid opinions about categories of people.

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• Supervisors often have neither the time nor the
  desire to follow all these steps to make a good
  decision.
• They may have trouble thinking of all the
  alternatives or
• gathering all the facts they need.

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Compromises

• Given the human and organizational limitations,
  supervisors tend to make compromises most of the
  time.
• If the supervisor is aware of the kinds of
  compromises people make, he or she is more likely
  to be aware when using them.
• Some kinds of compromises are useful in some
  situations, others are to be avoided as much as
  possible.

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Reasons for compromises

• Sitnplicity.
• Usually what we do is think over our experiences
  and consider some of the ways similar problems
  have been handled in the past.
• The downside of this approach is that it tends to
  bypass new and innovative solutions that may
  deliver better results.

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Bounded rationality

• When it seems impossible or unreasonable to find
  the best alternative in the universe, decision
  makers settle for an alternative they consider
  enough .
• The process is also known as bounded rationality,
  that is, the decision maker places limits, or
  bounds, on the rational model of decision making.
  
• The decision maker considers alternatives only
  until he or she finds one that meets his or her
  minimum criteria acceptability.

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Subjective rationality

• This considers alternatives that are the result
  of intuition and instincts, rather than impartial
  data.
• Even when the process for arriving at the
  decision otherwise rational, the numbers used in
  the process may be subjective.
• As a result, they may be less than completely
  accurate.

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Rationalization

• People tend to favor solutions that they believe
  they can justify to others.

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Personal perspective

• People may assume that everyone sees things the
  way they do.
• They think if something is clear to them it is
  also clear to everyone else.
• Decision makers must find out what other people
  are thinking and take those views into account.

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Stereotyping

• Rigid opinions about categories of people distort
  the truth that people offer a rich variety of
  individual strengths and viewpoints.
• The cure for stereotyping is not to assume that
  everyone is alike.
• The supervisor should be aware of what his or her
  stereotypes about people and situations are.
• In making a decision, the supervisor should
  consider whether those stereotypes truly describe
  the situation at hand.

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Consider the Consequences

• When the consequences of a decision are great,
  the supervisor should spend more time on the
  decision.
• He or she should try to follow the rational model
  of decision making, collecting information and
  including as many alternatives as possible.
• When the consequences are slight, the supervisor
  should limit the time and money spent in
  identifying and evaluating alternatives.

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Respond quickly in a crisis

• In a crisis, the supervisor should quickly select
  the course of action that seems best
• This is an application of satisficing.
• Rather than waiting to evaluate other
  alternatives, the supervisor should begin
  implementing the solution and interpreting
  feedback to see whether the solution is working.

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• Supervisors should be careful in identifying
  crisis situations.
• Sometimes it is easy to define more and more
  situations as a crisis or pseudo crisis using
  crisis decision-making methods.

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Inform the manager

• The supervisors boss doesnt want to hear about
  every minor decision, but the boss does need to
  know what is happening in the department.
• The supervisor should inform the boss about major
  decisions.
• These would include decisions affecting
• the department,
• meeting objectives,
• responses to crises, and
• any decision that might be controversial.

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• When the boss needs to know about a decision,
  its usually smart to discuss the problem before
  reaching and announcing the decision.
• The boss may have some input to the
  decision-making process that may modify the
  supervisors decision.
• In a crisis, the supervisor may not have time to
  consult with his or her boss and has to settle
  for discussing the decision as soon as possible
  afterward.

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Be decisive yet flexible

• Sometimes it is difficult to say which
  alternative solution is best.
• Perhaps none of the choices looks good enough.
• In this case, it may be difficult to move beyond
  studying the alternatives to selection and
  implementation.
• However, avoiding a decision is just another way
  to decide to do nothing.
• Being decisive means reaching a decision within a
  reasonable amount of time.
• The supervisor should pick the best alternative
  or at least an acceptable one, and then focus on
  implementing it.

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• A decisive supervisor clears his or her desk of
  routine matters when a problem arises.
• The supervisor
• refers the question or problem to the proper
  people,
• delegates appropriately, and
• keeps work moving.
• He or she takes complete responsibility for
  getting the facts needed.

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• A decisive supervisor keeps his or her employees
  informed of what they are expected to do and how
  they are progressing relative to their
  objectives.
• Being decisive should not mean that a supervisor
  is blind to signs of a mistake.
• If the feedback indicates the solution is not
  working, the supervisor must be flexible and try
  another approach

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Avoid decision-making traps

• Avoid making a major issue out of each decision.
• Good planning can avert many crises, and
  life-and-death issues are not the usual stuff of
  the supervisors job.
• Put each issue into perspective so that
  alternatives can be evaluated and an appropriate
  amount of time can be devoted to finding the
  solution.

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• Avoid inappropriate responses to failure.
• Acknowledge mistakes, but do not dwell and
  agonize over them.
• It is more important to learn whatever lesson the
  mistake can teach, and then move on.

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• Remember to draw on easily available information.
  
• Have some of the alternatives been tried before?
• If so, what was the outcome?
• Also consult with other members of the
  organization or with outside experts.

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• Beware of promising too much.
• Dont make promises you cant keep to your
  employees or your boss.

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Probability Theory

• A body of techniques for comparing the
  consequences of possible decisions in a risk
  situation.

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Decision Tree

• A graph that helps in decision making by showing
  the value of expected outcomes of decisions under
  varying circumstances.
• Decision trees can be used to present a variety
  of conditions to help familiarize others who are
  involved in the decision-making process.

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Decision-making Software

• A computer program that leads the user through
  the steps of the formal decision-making process.
• Software programs can construct the tree diagram
  and other decision-making tools, such as matrices
  that consider multiple factors.

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• The decision tree is a graph or picture of all
  alternatives under consideration.
• Decision-making benefits from a logical process
  that will present alternatives in a format that
  displays the alternatives and consequences of
  selecting each of the possible alternatives.
• It is useful to the supervisor because it can
  show relationships and potential outcomes of each
  step of the decision-making process, and allows
  mathematical calculations by including
  probability factors or risk involved in each
  decision.

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• In constructing the decision tree, the
  consequences for each alternative are considered.
  
• The decision tree can also be used to inform and
  communicate with the supervisors boss.
• A decision can be selected with a fair amount of
  certainty.
• However, with the decision tree, if the selected
  alternative not working as anticipated, another
  alternative has already been considered with its
  consequences.

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Groupthink

• The failure to think independently and
  realistically as a group because of the desire to
  enjoy consensus and closeness.

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Symptoms of Groupthink

• An illusion of being invulnerable
• Defending the groups position against any
  objections
• A view that the group is clearly moral--the good
  guys
• Stereotyped views of opponents
• Pressure against group members who disagree
• Self-censorship, that is, not allowing oneself to
  disagree.
• An illusion that everyone agrees (because no one
  states an opposing view)
• Self-appointed mindguards--people who urge
  other group members to go along with the group.

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• Some organizations allow or expect supervisors to
  work with others in arriving at a decision
• Supervisors might encourage employees to come up
  with a solution themselves.

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Advantages of Group Decision Making

• Group members can contribute more ideas for
  alternatives than an individual working alone.
• The group will have a broader perspective since
  the experience of the group is broader than an
  individuals experience.
• People involved in the decision will better
  understand an alternative selected and also be
  more likely to support the decision.

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• Involvement by employees in decision making
  provides an opportunity for improving morale and
  employee self-esteem.
• Recognition of the contributions of groups is a
  powerful motivator.

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Disadvantages of Group Decision Making

• Group decision making is slower than individual
  decision making.
• There is an opportunity cost to the organization
  when employees spend time in meetings rather than
  producing or selling.
• If one person dominates the decision-making
  process, the value of multiple inputs is lost.

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Brainstorming

• An idea-generating process in which group members
  state their ideas, a member of a group records
  them, and anyone may comment on the ideas until
  the process is complete.

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• Brainstorming is the process of coming up with as
  many ideas as possible.
• It may be structured, that is, each person takes
  a turn suggesting an idea.
• An unstructured session calls for individuals
  calling out whatever comes to mind. In the use of
  either method, no value judgments should be made
  about the suggestions.

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• A brainstorming session can be held for
  generating ideas about problems to be solved,
  causes for identified problems, and alternative
  solutions for the problem.
• Individuals with knowledge about the issue
  should be included, although an outsider may
  also be useful.
• This person will help clarify and question why
  suggestions are or are not made.

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• The supervisor is wise to involve employees in
  some but not all decisions.
• When a decision must be made quickly, like in an
  emergency, the supervisor should probably make it
  alone.
• When the supervisor needs to build support for a
  solution, such as in cutting costs or improving
  productivity, the group process is useful.
• When the consequences of a poor decision are
  great, the benefits of the groups collective
  wisdom are worth the time and expense of
  gathering the input

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• The supervisor may use the employees for input or
  they may be asked to make the decision.
• Whenever supervisors ask for employee input, they
  should be sure they intend to use the information.

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• Since a primary benefit of group decision making
  is the variety of opinions and expertise, a
  supervisor leading a decision-making meeting
  should be sure that everyone is participating.
• The supervisor should concentrate on listening
  and encouraging the input of others.
• If someone is not participating, the supervisor
  may have to ask for his or her opinion or
  thoughts on the matter at hand.

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• Brainstorming is another way to generate ideas in
  a group.
• Group members state their ideas no matter how
  far-reaching they may seem.
• No one may criticize or even comment on an idea
  until the end of the process.
• All ideas are recorded on a flip chart or black
  (white) board.
• Evaluation or follow-up on ideas takes place
  after all ideas are suggested.

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• Fifty to a hundred ideas may be generated in a
  single brainstorming session.
• The value of generating ideas in a free and open
  forum is to have group members build off each
  others ideas.
• Some ideas are likely to be only slightly
  different from others or a combination of
  previously mentioned ideas.

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Creativity

• The ability to bring about something imaginative
  or new.

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• In decision making, creativity means being able
  to generate alternatives that are innovative or
  different from what what has been used in the
  past.
• Thinking outside the box

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• There is a common notion that some people are
  creative and the rest of us are stuck with
  following routine and ordinary courses of action.
• A fundamental way to become more creative is to
  be open to your own ideas.
• think of as many alternatives as you can
• jot them down
• dont evaluate them until after you have finished
  the list.

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Five Step Technique for Generating Creative Ideas

• Gather the raw materials by learning about the
  problem and by developing your general knowledge.
• Constantly expand your experience.
• Work over those materials in your mind
• As you think of partial ideas, jot them down so
  you can refer to them later.
• If youre stuck on a problem, try leaving it for
  a while.

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• Incubate
• Let your subconscious do the work.
• Stimulate your imagination.
• Identify an idea.
• Ideas often pop into your head unexpectedly.
• Shape and develop the idea to make it practical
• Seek out constructive criticism.

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• The most important step a supervisor can take to
  establish a work climate that encourages creative
  thinking is to show that he or she values
  creativity.
• When employees offer suggestions, the supervisor
  should listen attentively and look for the
  positive aspects of the suggestions.
• Then the supervisor should attempt to implement
  the suggestions and give the employee credit for
  the idea.
• Failure should be acknowledged as a sign that
  people are trying.
• Help employees see what can be learned from
  failures as well as from successes.

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• Creating an environment that fosters creativity
  is not simply listening to alternative solutions
  when problems occur.
• The environment is developed daily and by all
  levels of the organization.
• The supervisor can nurture a creative environment
  by the way he/she treats people and their ideas
  on an ongoing basis.
• Respect for all employees and appreciation of
  daily contributions will create an environment
  where employees feel valued and are willing to
  think about the problems of the workplace.

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• Often supervisors and employees have difficulty
  being creative because they are afraid their
  ideas will fail.
• Focus on learning from failures
• Another barrier to creativity is being overly
  busy.
• Creativity requires time to think.
• Isolation also interferes with creativity.
• Get i