Problem Solving Escalator Video

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Problem Solving Escalator Video
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Decisions!! Decisions!!

• How many bad decisions have you made lately?

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Maxine Clark founder of Build a Bear

• Attributes her success to Mrs. Grace, her
  elementary teacher who gave out a red pencil
  prize to the student who made the most mistake
  each week. She didnt want the fear of being
  wrong to keep us from trying. No prize for
  making the same mistake twice though.

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Decision making errors

• Overconfidence Bias
• 1996 expedition to the top of Everest were
  overconfident, did not follow the rule of
  reaching the top by 200 PM or you turn around.
  The 5 who reached the top at 400 died. Leaders
  said it worked 39 times before.

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Decision making errors

• 2. Sunk Cost Bias
• 1996 expedition to the top of Everest (29,000
  feet) had invested 6 weeks of preparation to
  acclimatize and 2 weeks climbing. The cost was
  65,000 each. Because of this, they had become
  overly committed violating the Turn around
  rule.

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Decision making errors

• 3. Cognitive Bias
• When you place too much emphasis on recent event.
  The leaders of the expedition to the top of
  Everest had experienced several seasons of good
  weather. A raging blizzard came in that day as
  they were climbing down in the dark.

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Can you undo a decision?

• You have gone to a bad movie
• You chose to stay up late
• You cheated on a test
• You told someone something that was told to you
  in confidence
• You paid too much for a pair of jeans
• You saved your entire paycheck with no money
  leftover for gas

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Do I follow my heart or my head? 
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Do I follow my intuition? 
Nurses and Doctors have a sense that something
isnt right, but no vital sign abnormalities
cardiac arrest happens. A fireman sees a simple
kitchen fire, but has a sense that his men should
leave the floor collapses.
Intuition is about pattern recognition and
pattern matching based on out past experience
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Is there a right and wrong answer to most
decisions?

• RIGHT?? WRONG??

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OPPORTUNITY COSTS

• Do the rewards outweigh the benefits?

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OPPORTUNITY COSTS

• Is a choice free, or does it have a cost?
• Each choice has alternatives.
• The choice is what your willing to give up.
• Are you as well off as your next best
  alternative?
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Is the longest list best?

• College to go to
• Who to marry

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Have I let my imagination go wild?




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Brainstorming ground rules

• Encourage wild ideas
• Encourage building on other ideas
• Defer judgment
• IDEOs brainstorming methods creating a
  shopping cart

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Should I let others help me?
Audience was correct 91 of the time
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Group Think

• Pressure for conformity to any members who
  express a dissenting view.
• Certain individuals filter out information the
  might challenge the wisdom within the group.

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Are there unintended consequences to others?
Choice
Consequences?
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10 10 10 RULE

• Consider the consequences of your decision in
• 10 minutes
• 10 months
• 10 years

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10 10 10 RULE

• Start with a question
• Collect information
• Ask friends family for guidance
• Consider your inner most values
• Will this decision help me create a live of my
  own making?

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Should you always choose the option of what you
do best?

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Decision Making Process
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Class Activity

• Make to tallest, free standing tower
• With newspaper and masking tape only
• Groups of 4-5
• 3 minutes to plan
• 10 minutes to construct

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Paper Tower

• Did it help to plan and organize the group?
• Did plans change as you worked?
• Did some take over, some do less than others?
• Was it helpful to have others ideas?