CREATIVE PROBLEM-SOLVING & DECISION-MAKING

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Problem Solving Decision Making

• 2007

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C O N T E N T S

1. Background to Problem Solving
2. Setting the Problem Statement
3. Analyze the Problem in Detail
4. Identify Likely Causes
5. Define Actual Causes

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Background to Problem Solving

• (1)

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What is PAID?

• A logical problem solving process can be done
  through some steps called "PAID"
• Problem Statement
• Analyze the problem in detail
• Identify likely causes
• Define actual cause(s)

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• Problems exist when someone or something is not
  performing as expected.
• Action needs to be taken to solve the problem
  thus action should follow from a clear
  understanding of the problem.
• To understand problem solving it is necessary to
  distinguish between symptoms of a problem and its
  causes.

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• Identification of the cause of a problem is the
  key to problem solving.
• Once you know the real cause of the problem, you
  can decide how to deal with it

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Causes and Symptoms of a Problem

• It is necessary to distinguish between the
  symptoms of a problem and its causes.
• What is the best indication that a problem can be
  solved?
• The symptoms of the problem have been treated?
• OR
• The cause of the problem has been isolated?
• Sure symptoms treatment not a solution but once
  you have found the real cause of a problem you
  can decide how to deal with it.

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Diagram of a Problem

• To help understand what we are looking for when
  finding the cause of a problem, it is worthwhile
  looking at a problem diagrammatically.

• Look at the diagram on the right. It shows
  performance over time. In this case it is
  constant, but is there a problem?

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• The area with the positive variance is called
  Opportunity"
• An opportunity is the exact opposite of a
  problem.
• They can be analyzed in the same way as problems.
• You want to find out what caused an opportunity
  to happen that you can exploit it to the full or
  make it happen elsewhere.

Positive Variance Opportunity
Negative Variance Problem
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• Problems don't occur without a reason.
• In any situation with a problem, there must be an
  historical point.
• When actual performance started to deviate.
• Something happened at the time x which caused the
  problem to occur.

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Problem Solving Action Flow

• Set a Problem Statement
• Describe the problem
• Develop a one sentence problem statement
• Analyze the problem in detail
• Analyze what is wrong
• Analyze what is right
• Identify likely causes
• What's different?
• What has changed?
• What are the most likely explanations?
• Define actual cause/s
• What is the most likely explanation?
• Can I prove it?

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Avoiding Pitfalls

• (A) Giving up too early
• (B) Jumping straight to conclusions about the
  cause
• (C) Not getting the right people involved
• (D) Not collecting all the relevant data
• The worst one is B " because. It is always very
  tempting to think you know the cause of a problem
  straight away, jump to conclusions and take
  action to solve it.

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Setting the Problem Statement

• (2)

Describe the problem Develop a one sentence
problem statement
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Describe the Problem

• The purpose of describing the problem is to
  create an impressionistic view of it - something
  on which to lay a solid foundation for further
  work.
• Choose what you would do first from this list
• Write down a list of possible causes
• Undertake a detailed analysis to produce a
  structured picture of the problem
• Write down everything you know about the problem
• Interview the people you think are to blame for
  the problem

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Describe the Problem

• The purpose of describing the problem is to
  create an impressionistic view of it - something
  on which to lay a solid foundation for further
  work.
• Choose what you would do first from this list
• Write down a list of possible causes
• Undertake a detailed analysis to produce a
  structured picture of the problem
• Write down everything you know about the problem
• Interview the people you think are to blame for
  the problem

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Brainstorming

• Creative thinking techniques have a potentially
  powerful role in the PAID process.
• They are a very good starting point when you have
  a blank piece of paper.
• They can help you get insights into the nature of
  the problem that purely analytical techniques
  couldn't.
• many people broadly know what it means, but don't
  do it properly.
• Even though it's a creative thinking technique it
  has several rules which must be followed to make
  it work.

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Brainstorming

• See if you can identify what we can use
  brainstorming for as part of sorting out a
  statement of the problem.
• To generate as many ideas as possible about
• The overall nature of the problem
• The actions to be taken to solve the problem
• Possible causes of the problem
• Specific aspects of the problem

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Brainstorming

• See if you can identify what we can use
  brainstorming for as part of sorting out a
  statement of the problem.
• To generate as many ideas as possible about
• The overall nature of the problem
• The actions to be taken to solve the problem
• Possible causes of the problem
• Specific aspects of the problem

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Brainstorming

• You are the leader of a brainstorm session
  looking at a customer service problem.
• A member of the group gives an idea you know is
  completely irrelevant. What should you do? 
• Write down the idea as stated
• Modify the idea to make it relevant and write
  that down
• Ignore the idea completely
• Ask members of the group whether they think the
  idea is relevant

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Brainstorming

• You are the leader of a brainstorm session
  looking at a customer service problem.
• A member of the group gives an idea you know is
  completely irrelevant. What should you do? 
• Write down the idea as stated
• Modify the idea to make it relevant and write
  that down
• Ignore the idea completely
• Ask members of the group whether they think the
  idea is relevant

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Bug Listing

• When listing the things they liked, the group got
  a very different set of ideas.
• It is quick and easy to use and very useful for
  getting a feel about problems. It can also be
  used later when you are looking for the areas you
  need to specify in detail.

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Reversals

• 'Reversals' is a simple technique which is useful
  at any stage in the PAID process.
• It is good to use at the start of the process
  because it's fun.
• You simply take an issue that you planned to
  brainstorm and reverse it!
• You then brainstorm the reversed issue. It's best
  explained by example. Here are a few issues and
  possible reversals
• How to attract more customers into my store
• How to reduce the number of customers visiting my
  store
• How to improve the quality of customer service
• How to reduce the quality of customer service

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Setting the Problem Statement

• A problem statement is a single sentence which
  embraces your understanding of the problem.
• Not the cause of the problem, but the problem
  itself.
• Setting the problem statement is the single most
  important action you will take in the whole
  problem solving process.
• It is so important that you must be prepared to
  put in time and effort to get it right.

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Setting the Problem Statement

• But why is setting the problem statement so
  important?
• Several potential reasons are given below
• Get the problem statement wrong and you will
  search in the wrong areas for the problem's
  cause.
• A clear problem statement enables you to decide
  what work must be completed to find the cause.
• Keeping the problem statement visible during the
  search for the cause keeps effort focused in the
  right area.
• The problem statement provides the context within
  which all further work takes place.

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Effective Problem Statements

• If a problem statement is to do its job it must
  be
• A single sentence.
• Precise. 
• Understandable to a person with no knowledge of
  the problem area.
• Neutral.
• Based on the description of the problem.

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The Completed First Stage

• When you have completed the first stage of the
  PAID problem solving process you will have
• A description of the problem. This will probably
  contain things like
• Your notes on how you see the problem
• Notes of conversations with other people involved
• Examples of how the problem manifests itself
• Write-ups of brainstorms, bug lists or reversals
• Any available statistics which showed you have a
  problem
• You will then sort out all this information to
  produce
• The Problem Statement
• A one sentence statement which incorporates your
  understanding of the problem

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Analyze the Problem in Detail

• (3)

Analyze what is wrong Analyze what is right
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Analyzing what is wrong

• Here you are aiming to develop a detailed
  specification of the problem.
• This involves measuring its scale and scope,
  determining what the detailed symptoms are and
  the negative consequences they cause.
• It also needs to determine who is involved and
  when and how often the problem occurs.

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Analyzing what is right

• The purpose of this is to determine what the
  problem is not.
• If things are going well, then they can't be part
  of the problem.
• By analyzing what is right you can eliminate
  potential causes of the problem and limit the
  scope of your investigation.

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OverviewAnalyze the Problem in Detail

• Though both activities are equally important,
  this is rarely reflected in how problem solvers
  behave.
• Individuals and teams attempting to solve
  important organizational problems, nearly always
  focus on what is wrong, ignoring what is right.

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OverviewAnalyze the Problem in Detail

• The result are solutions that come to wrong
  conclusions, vital aspects of the situation are
  ignored and underlying problems remain unsolved.
• Make sure you avoid the trap of concentrating
  only on what is wrong and ignoring what is right

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The Role of Questions

• Asking questions is the key to analyzing
  problems.
• A systematic approach to questioning ensures you
  don't miss any important areas.
• If you don't ask the right questions, you can't
  possibly get the right answers.
• The best questions nearly always start with
• What? Why? When?
• Who? Where? How much?
• Because such questions cannot be answered with a
  single word, but require some form of comment

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How do you decide which questions to ask?

• Essentially, your problem statement and
  description of the problem are the best starting
  points for generating questions.
• You should also think of holding a creative
  thinking session to generate questions.
• This is an area where the techniques are
  particularly useful.
• Brainstorming, bug listing and reversals can all
  be used in this context.

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Herringbones

• Herringbones are a variant of the Ishikawa Fish
  Bone and serve the same purpose.
• The Ishikawa Fish Bone was invented in Japan for
  use by teams working in quality circles when
  trying to solve problems.
• They are most commonly used in operations
  departments.

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Herringbones

• The technique is particularly useful in
  determining what needs to be analyzed.
• A herringbone is like a structured brainstorm.
• You write down the issue you want to cover in the
  box marked 'Problem Statement', then brainstorm
  it using the headings on the herringbone.

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• Look at an example of a completed herringbone
• The issue was a backlog of work.
• A herringbone is a structured brainstorm, where
  the headings on each 'bone' provide a structure
  appropriate to the problem that needs to be
  solved.

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Analyzing the Problem

• Here are some what questions you might find handy
  when attempting to solve a problem.

Questioning Tool Box Questioning Tool Box
What is wrong?What did you do about it?What was the result?What happened next? What was their reaction?What are the symptoms?What are their effects?What did you notice first?

• The list isn't exhaustive, but should be enough
  to give you a clue how to go about using them.

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Analyzing the Problem

• "When" questions aim to pinpoint exactly when the
  symptoms began to appear.
• In other words you are trying to track down the
  point x in time.
• So the key question is When did it start going
  wrong?
• If you can discover the point x, then something
  must have happened at that point in time to cause
  the symptoms.
• Once you discover what happened, then you have
  found the cause of the problem.

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Analyzing the Problem

• Where questions isolate the parts of the
  organization or geographical area where the
  symptoms are being experienced.
• There is no point in looking for the cause of a
  problem in areas of the organization which don't
  exhibit symptoms.
• You also need to know who is involved

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Analyzing the Problem

• To summaries, the key questions you need to ask
  are
• What is wrong?
• When did it go wrong?
• How much went wrong?
• Where did it go wrong?
• Who is involved?

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Analyzing What is Right

• There is no need to go into detail about the
  types of question you should ask to explore what
  is right.
• They are the mirror images of those you ask when
  analyzing what is wrong.
• Basically, they are based around
• What am I satisfied with?
• When are things correct?
• How much is correct?
• Where are things correct?
• Who is not involved?

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Identify Likely Causes

• (4)

What's different?What has changed?What are the
most likely causes?
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Identify Likely Causes

• Identify the differences between what you have
  identified from your analysis of what is right
  and what is wrong.
• This will enable you to discover what is
  distinctive about the problem.
• What has changed? Something happened to cause the
  problem.
• So what things changed round about the time the
  problem started to manifest itself.
• What are the most likely explanations?
• The work you have done so far should enable you
  to identify potential causes of the problem.

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What's Different?

• In this stage of the PAID process you are looking
  for things which are
• Distinctive in the symptoms identified which
  distinguish the problem situation from the areas
  where you are satisfied
• Distinctive in the parts of the organization and
  specific locations where the problem arises which
  distinguish them from the areas where you are
  satisfied

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What's Different?

• In this stage of the PAID process you are looking
  for things which are
• Distinctive about the time a problem arises from
  times when it does not
• Different about a group which is affected by the
  problem compared to groups which are not affected
  by it

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What Has Changed?

• Often the changes involve
• People. These include changes in personnel,
  organization structure, workgroups, skill levels
  and leadership style
• Materials. Use of different materials, changes in
  material specification and changes in quality are
  all relevant

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What Has Changed?

• Often the changes involve
• Equipment. This includes introduction of new
  equipment and changes in maintenance procedures
• Processes. Introduction of new systems and
  procedures, changes to patterns of communication,
  training processes and so on

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Define Actual Causes

• (5)

What is the most likely explanation?Can I prove
it?
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Define Actual Causes

• Identifying what is the most likely explanation.
• Of all the potential causes identified which is
  the most likely explanation for all the symptoms
  which have been identified?
• Proving the cause.
• This involves testing whether the cause
  identified can explain all the symptoms presented
  by the problem.

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The Most Likely Cause

• Does it explain all the data you have collected
  about the problem and what is wrong?
• Is it consistent with the data you have collected
  about things which are right?
• If the potential cause should be generating
  symptoms in areas which are right, but it is not,
  then that cause can be eliminated.

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The Most Likely Cause

• They would be solving the wrong problem.
• They would focus on initiatives to sign up new
  retailers or retaining sales executives.
• They would be taking action in relation to a
  symptom.

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Proving the Cause

• Identification of the cause of a problem will
  almost inevitably lead to action designed to
  eliminate it.
• Deciding what to do involve decision making which
  is a distinct process in its own right and is
  dealt with in next chapter.
• If action is taken to eliminate the wrong cause,
  there is a strong possibility that your actions
  will only make matters worse.
• Therefore, it is often worthwhile seeing if you
  can prove that the most likely explanation is the
  actual cause.

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Proving the Cause

• Proving the cause involves
• Checking that the actual cause identified does
  explain all the facts at your disposal
• About both the problem and those things that are
  right.
• Testing that any assumptions you have made which
  support the analysis are accurate.
• Trying to replicate the problem situation in a
  controlled test.

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Review

• Once you have found the cause you should conduct
  a review to see if you can improve your
  performance next time round. The review should
  focus on three basic questions
• What went well?
• What went less well?
• What should we do differently next time?

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Problem Solving

1. Background to Problem Solving
2. Setting the Problem Statement
3. Analyze the Problem in Detail
4. Identify Likely Causes
5. Define Actual Causes

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Decision Making

• The ICES decision making process stands for
• InitiateCriteriaEvaluateSelect

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Decision Making

• A decision is about making choices.
• It is the cut off point at which you stop the
  process of thinking and begin the process of
  action.
• There are many types of decisions including
• Yes or no decisions
• Choose from a list
• Creative

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Making Decisions

• If a decision is a cut off point when the
  thinking process stops,
• Clearly the quality of thinking determines the
  quality of decisions.
• But what is involved in the thinking process?
• There are many ways to make decisions and all
  manners of decisions to be made.
• Which do you think are the most difficult type?
• All of them!

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The ICES Process

• INITIATE Deciding what to decide
• This is the first important stage of any decision
  making process - INITIATING THE DECISION
• CRITERIA Defining exactly what you want
• EVALUATE Evaluating the options available
• EVALUATING the options against the CRITERIA.
• SELECT Selecting the best option

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Evaluating Options

• Generating several options will normally help you
  to select the one that will best help you achieve
  your decisions objectives.
• The time and effort spent generating options
  depends on the importance of the decision being
  made.
• Options can be generated by
• Research
• Informal discussion
• Brainstorming
• Meetings

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Evaluating Options

• So far youve learnt how to initiate the decision
  making process by
• Describing the decision to be made
• Producing a set of essential and desirable
  criteria
• There is not an optimum number of options for
  making an effective decision
• Sometimes a decision is simply just yes or no or
  a choice between two things.

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Thank You..!