Palestinian Terrorism in Israel - Developments and Trends

1
Palestinian Terrorism in Israel - Developments
and Trends

• Gabriel Ben-Dor
• Ami Pedahzur
• Arie Perliger
• National Security Studies Center (NSSC)

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Research Goals

• The following presentation is aimed at
  analyzing and describing the development of the
  Palestinian terrorism in Israel with regard to
  the following aspects
• Geographical
• Operational
• The Perpetrators

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Data Collection

• Phase 1 Review of the Haaretz newspaper
• publications from 1948 till
  today.
• Data collection through
  questionnaires
• about each and every terrorist
• incident.
• Phase 2 Coding of the gathered data into
• SPSS.

A total of 2622 acts of terrorism were recorded
from 1948-2003
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Number of Terrorist Attacks - per Year
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Geographical Aspects
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Percentage of Terrorist Acts in Main Regions - By
Decade
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Events in Urban versus Non-Urban Areas
(percentage)
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Events Inside/Beyond the Green Line (percentage)
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Conclusions

• Palestinian terrorism has become more urban
  centered throughout the years.
• From the 90s, Palestinian organizations have
  shifted their attacks to targets beyond the green
  line (in the territories).
• Since the establishment of the state of Israel,
  almost one quarter of all attacks occurred in
  Jerusalem.

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Operational Aspects
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Methods of Attack Used (percentage) - by Decades
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Average Number of Casualties per Terrorist Act -
by Decade
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Conclusions

• From the 90s there has been a noticeable
  increase in the use of suicide attacks.
• This method has now been implemented by all the
  Palestinian organizations including the Fatah.
• As a result, judging from the number of victims,
  Palestinian terrorism since the year 2000 is the
  most devastating in the history of Israel.

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The Perpetrators
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Organizational Affiliation of the Terrorist
(percentage)
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Where Do the Terrorists Come From? (percentage)
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Conclusions

• While before the first intifada nationalistic
  and left-wing organizations were dominant, ever
  since the 90s the fundamentalist organizations
  have become most prominent.
• This is often viewed as a counter-measure to the
  involvement of the Fatah in the Oslo peace
  process.
• While in the first years of the state of Israel,
  most of the terrorists came from the neighboring
  Arab states, in recent decades they originated
  from the West-Bank and Gaza.

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General Conclusions

• Throughout the years there has been an increase
  in the number of attacks and intensity level of
  Palestinian terrorism inside Israel.
• The aims of the Palestinian organizations have
  shifted from creation of public interest to
  inflicting maximum damage, hence targeting urban
  areas and population in the territories.
• Palestinian terrorism, once focused on the
  international arena, is now concentrated inside
  Israel.
• The Ideology of the Palestinian struggle has
  become more universal and is now dominated by
  Pan-Islamic organizations that enjoy financial
  and logistic support from several Arab states
  (mainly Syria and Iran).