Title: International Terrorism
1International Terrorism
2Fundamental Questions
- Is Terrorism warfare?
- Is terror a legitimate tool?/ What is
international terrorism? - Is terrorism more predominant in the post cold
war area? - Is 9/11 significant?
- Mass casualties, a serious threat?
- What counter measures we can take against the
threat?
3(No Transcript)
4Is Terrorism a legitimate tool?
5Is Terrorism warfare?
- Colin Gray thesis All Terrorist are Soldiers.
- Another Bloody Century, Future Warfare
- Legitimating terrorism for the sake of war!
- Terror is a form of warfare in both conventional
and insurgency wars. - Terrorism against states or individuals not in a
state of insecurity or declaring martial law
remains a crime!
6Is Terrorism warfare? Depends on the perspective
7Is terror a legitimate tool?
- Philosophical explanation (definition on what is
right? Or Who is right?) - East Timor, War of Independence (17751783),
French Revolution, Israel (1948) - Pragmatic explanation
- Jurisprudence (resistance movements)
- International Law (Geneva Convention, U.N
Charter) - Adversary view (means are justified)
- Revolutionary warfare (Banastre Tarleton)
- War of Independence (Algerian Civil War 1990)
- Struggle, freedom fights or idiosyncratic
millenarian movements - Mahdi movement (Muhammad Ahmad ibn as Sayyid Abd
Allah 1845 - 1885 )
8Jurisprudence on terrorism
- Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of
Crimes against Internationally Protected Persons,
including Diplomatic Agents, New York, 14
December 1973 - International Convention against the Taking of
Hostages, New York, 17 December 1979 - International Convention for the Suppression of
Terrorist Bombings, New York, 15 December 1997 - International Convention for the Suppression of
the Financing of Terrorism, New York, 9 December
1999 - Convention on Offences and Certain Other Acts
Committed on Board Aircraft, Tokyo, 14 September
1963 () - Convention for the Suppression of Unlawful
Seizure of Aircraft, The Hague, 16 December 1970
() - Convention for the Suppression of Unlawful Acts
against the Safety of Civil Aviation, Montreal,
23 September 1971 () - Convention on the Physical Protection of Nuclear
Material, Vienna, 3 March 1980 () - Protocol on the Suppression of Unlawful Acts of
Violence at Airports Serving International Civil
Aviation, supplementary to the Convention for the
Suppression of Unlawful Acts against the Safety
of Civil Aviation, Montreal, 24 February 1988 ()
- Convention for the Suppression of Unlawful Acts
against the Safety of Maritime Navigation, Rome,
10 March 1988 - Protocol for the Suppression of Unlawful Acts
against the Safety of Fixed Platforms located on
the Continental Shelf, Rome, 10 March 1988 - Convention on the Marking of Plastic Explosives
for the Purpose of Detection, Montreal, 1 March
1991 () - 1949 Geneva Convention
9Is terror a legitimate tool?
- ICRC, Geneva Convention, UN Charter - a clear NO!
- Criminal Code a clear NO!
- Political perspective well fuzzy, as and if
opportune (for state) for adversary always YES! - Colonists (US War of Independence) - YES!
- Beaten on the battlefield, Francis Marion fixed
British forces away from the main continental
contingents. Actions by the British justified
Colonists retaliatory actions
10Is terror a legitimate tool?
- International humanitarian law prohibits without
exception all acts of terror during international
or non-international armed conflicts. - This body of law also requires States to prevent
and punish breaches. Acts of terrorism may
constitute war crimes, subject to international
jurisdiction, and the International Criminal
Court may be competent to hear such cases. - At the same time, the fight against terrorism and
the prosecution of persons suspected of terrorism
are subject to international humanitarian law if
they take place during armed conflict. That body
of law does not constitute an obstacle to the
fight against terrorism. Indeed, suspected
terrorists can be prosecuted for acts of
terrorism. But even the members of armed forces
or illegal fighters suspected of acts of
terrorism are protected by the Geneva Conventions
and are entitled to judicial guarantees if put on
trial. - http//www.icrc.org/Web/eng/siteeng0.nsf/htmlall/5
FLCCX/File/irrc_847_Gasser.pdf - http//www.icrc.org/Web/eng/siteeng0.nsf/iwpList74
/A728AA89F447446BC1256C5C00236A3B
11International terrorism
12Is 9/11 significant? - Perspectives
- Political
- Emotional resonance
- Starting now, life in America is about
emergencies rather than ease - Economical, Constitutional
- Patriot Act, curbing of civil liberties
- Economical switch to the Euro threatens US
economy Iraqs invasion has economical
justifications - Ideological/ Religious
- Muslim perspective. Surah 911 does not appear
relevant, but Surah 9111 is highly relevant
because it firmly promises heavenly gardens to
those who slay and are slain in Allah's way. - Some historians noted that September 11, 1683
the Battle of Vienna, was the turning point in a
250-year struggle between the forces of the
Christian West and the Islamic Ottoman Empire.
http//www.progressive.org/node/1777 James
Ashcroft, Virgin Books, Making A Killing, page
215
13Is 9/11 significant? - Perspectives
- Strategic
- Hegemonic change of the United States
- Regional changes initiated
- Social
- Impact on the American soul
- Attack against the homeland first since 1941
14U.S perspective
- Title 22, US Code, Section 2656f(d) (used by the
Department of State and the CIA) - Terrorism is premeditated, politically motivated
violence perpetrated against non-combatant
targets by sub-national groups or clandestine
agents, usually intended to influence an
audience. - International terrorism is terrorism involving
citizens or the territory of more than one
country. - A Terrorist group is any group practicing, or
which has significant subgroups which practice,
international terrorism. - Federal Bureau of Investigation
- International terrorism involves violent acts or
acts dangerous to human life that are a violation
of the criminal laws of the United States or any
state, or that would be a criminal violation if
committed within the jurisdiction of the United
States or any state. These acts appear to be
intended to intimidate or coerce a civilian
population, influence the policy of a government
by intimidation or coercion, or affect the
conduct of a government by assassination or
kidnapping. International terrorist acts occur
outside the United States or transcend national
boundaries in terms of the means by which they
are accomplished, the persons they appear
intended to coerce or intimidate, or the locale
in which the perpetrators operate or seek asylum.
15U.S perspective
- U.S. State Departments official list of states
supporting terrorism - Political mandated by U.S Congress
- to take the moral high ground against terrorism
with little political cost. - With no objective criteria for deciding when
countries should be placed on or removed from the
list, inclusion is a purely political decision. - Syria
- State Department testified in 1995 that it had no
evidence of Syrian involvement in terrorism since
1984! - Serbia
- Not on the State Department list despite its
support of Bosnian Serbs committing mass
atrocities and terrorist acts in Bosnia.
http//www.criminology.fsu.edu/transcrime/article
s/counteringterrorism.htm
16What is international terrorism?
- Religious terrorism
- Tends to be more violent then secular terrorism
- Amateur terrorism
- Lethal, self inspired, indirect sponsored
- Hamas vs. PLO
- Trade Center bombing 1983 (400, 6 killed, more
than 1,000 injured, 180ft. Six storey deep
crater, 550 million damage - Professional terrorism
- Core cadre provide the foundation for amateurs
- Outome
- Accelerate in lethality since 1990
http//www.ciaonet.org/wps/hob01/
17What is international terrorism?
- Agro-terrorism
- A subset of bioterrorism, agro-terrorism would
involve the use of a biological agent against the
agricultural industry and/or food supply. - Cyber-terrorism
- A terrorist attack aimed at crippling the
country's networking infrastructure through the
use of viruses etc, which also results in
violence against persons or property. - Narco-terrorism
- This term does not refer to a method of attack,
but rather to a description of the link between
narcotics trafficking and terrorism it involves
being a direct or indirect participant in drug
trafficking and using the profits to advance or
finance terrorist activities. - WMD terrorism
- A terrorist attack utilizing a weapon of mass
destruction (WMD), i.e. the use of a chemical,
biological, nuclear or radiological weapon - http//www.tamilnation.org/tamileelam/armedstruggl
e/terrorism/index.htm - http//www.armscontrolcenter.org/terrorism/101/def
initions.html
18Conclusions
- No conclusive definition but commonly accepted
legal, moral definitions of what terrorism is
generally perceived - Interpretation subject to change and often
defined by the type of response - US perspective (direct historically kinetic)
- European perspective (indirect)
- Asian perspectives (mixed)
- Adversaries perspective (direct historically
kinetic, only when defeated pattern changes)
19U.S policy example
- Make no concessions to terrorists and strike no
deals - Bring terrorists to justice for their crimes
- Isolate and apply pressure on states that sponsor
terrorism to force them to change their behavior
and, - Bolster the counterterrorism capabilities of
countries that work with the United States and
require assistance.
http//www.fas.org/irp/threat/commission.html
20Historical Statistical Data
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22Historical view 1997 data
23Most deadliest groups 1997 data
241997 The Year of Violence
25Terrorist Incidents by Region 01/01/1968 -
12/24/2006
Region Incidents Injuries Fatalities
Africa 1059 9208 3496
East Central Asia 242 5584 253
Eastern Europe 1405 5100 1984
Latin America the Caribbean 3616 3854 2322
Middle East / Persian Gulf 12424 44435 22014
North America 576 4221 3566
South Asia 4604 22097 8071
Southeast Asia Oceania 1556 5090 1791
Western Europe 5473 5642 1439
TOTAL 30955 105231 44936
26Terrorist Incidents by Target 01/01/1968 -
12/24/2006
Target Incidents Injuries Fatalities
Airports Airlines 4 166 43
Business 23 2962 2913
Diplomatic 22 5739 414
Government 20 344 364
Journalists Media 4 92 32
Maritime 1 39 17
Military 24 296 430
NGO 3 6 19
Other 14 366 190
Police 12 338 88
Private Citizens Property 35 1629 287
Religious Figures/Institutions 3 69 25
Tourists 5 405 223
Transportation 29 847 260
Unknown 14 3 15
Utilities 1 0 6
TOTAL 214 13301 5326
271980 1990/ 1990 - 2006
Month Incidents Injuries Fatalities
January 1798 4688 2030
February 1521 4941 2211
March 1622 11929 2330
April 1410 3963 1789
May 1401 4653 1929
June 1573 4751 2051
July 1816 4795 2173
August 1851 11365 2937
September 1529 7941 5373
October 1736 5812 2512
November 1670 4765 1983
December 1828 4851 2108
TOTAL 19755 74454 29426
Month Incidents Injuries Fatalities
January 238 176 165
February 240 578 157
March 341 1060 361
April 327 1983 310
May 265 314 109
June 279 277 464
July 278 990 223
August 302 619 193
September 315 1100 447
October 315 1098 541
November 236 389 370
December 276 765 527
TOTAL 3412 9349 3867
MIPT Terrorism Knowledge Database RAND
28Evolution of Terrorism
29Opposing Viewpoints(2000 2004)
- Is Terrorism a Serious Threat
- Terrorism is a Serious Threat (Hoffman, Paul
Bremer!) - The Threat of Terrorism is Overstated (1997-2000)
Larry C. Johnson/ William Church - WMD Do Not Pose a Terrorist Threat
- Terrorism Against Information Systems Is a Threat
- The Threat of Terrorism is Being Reduced (John
Ashcroft! - 2004) - Biological Terrorism Is a Serious Threat (2004)
- The Threat of Biological Terrorism has been
exaggerated (2004) - America Is a Serious Terrorist Threat (2004)
- Southeast Asia Terrorism Is a Serious Problem
(2004) - Narco-terrorism Is a Serious Threat (2004)
30Opposing Viewpoints(2000 2004)
- What Motivates Terrorism?
- Religious Fanaticism Motivates Terrorists
- Postwar Developments Motivate Terrorists
- Democracy Encourages Terrorism
- Economic Distress Motivates Terrorists (2000
2004) - Israeli Actions Motivate Middle East Terrorists
- A combination of factors motivate Terrorists
- What Are the Causes of Terrorism?
- Islam Encourages Terrorism (2004)
- Islam Does Not Encourage Terrorism (2004)
- Economic Problems Cause Terrorism (2004)
- Israel's Occupation of Palestine Causes Terrorism
(Hamas 2004) - Palestinian Hatred of Israel Causes Terrorism
31Opposing Viewpoints(2000 2004)
- Can Terrorism be Justified?
- Resistance to Tyranny Justifies Violence against
U.S government - Resistance to British Rule Justifies Bombings in
Northern Ireland - Bombings in Northern Ireland Cannot be Justified
- American Policies in the Middle East Justify
Islamic Terrorism (Osama Bin Laden interview) - Israeli Occupation of Palestine Justifies Islamic
Terrorism - The Islamic Faith Does Not Condone Terrorism
32Opposing Viewpoints(2000 2004)
- How Should the United States respond?
- Tougher Aviation Security Measures Will Help
Reduce Terrorism - Tougher Aviation Security Measures Will Not
Reduce Terrorism - The U.S Should Retaliate Against Terrorist Groups
- Retaliation Efforts Against Terrorists Are
Fruitless - Expanding the FBIs Power is a necessary Response
to Terrorism (Louis J. Freeh) - CT Legislation is a Dangerous Expansion of
Governmental Powers - How Should Americas Domestic War on Terrorism Be
Conducted? (2004) - Antiterrorism Legislation Will Make America Safer
- Antiterrorism Legislation Threatens Civil
Liberties - Racial Profiling Will Make America Safer
- Racial Profiling Will Make America Less Safe
- Immigration Must Be Restricted to Protect America
Against Terrorists - Immigrants Enhance National Security
33Opposing Viewpoints(2004) surprise entry
- How Should the International Community Respond to
Terrorism? - The UN Should Lead the Fight Against Terrorism
vs. Should Not Lead the Fight - War Is an Appropriate Response to Terrorism
- War Is the Wrong Response to Terrorism
- Brokering a Peace Between Israel Palestinians
Can Reduce Terrorism vs. Will Not Reduce
Terrorism
34Old vs. New Terror
- Old terror (system/state terror?)
- Mid-eastern PLO (supported by Stasi ergo the
Soviets!) nationalistic - Defined, set of political, social or economic
objectives, taking credit with communiqués or
explaining their actions - Marxist-Leninist movements
- South America
- FARC, MRTA, SL, Sandinistas
- Europe
- RAF, Red Brigades
- Nationalistic
- IRA, ETA
35New forms of Terrorism
- New so new (Hoffman)
- Religious imperatives encapsulates the confluence
of the adversary, motivation and rationale - Less cohesive organizational entities
- Amorphous, religious or millenarian aims
- Obscure, zealous nationalist religious groups
- Self started, home grown
- Converted from nationalistic aims to
divine-inspired, mystical, vehemently
anti-government
361980 1990/ 1990 - 2006
Month Incidents Injuries Fatalities
January 1798 4688 2030
February 1521 4941 2211
March 1622 11929 2330
April 1410 3963 1789
May 1401 4653 1929
June 1573 4751 2051
July 1816 4795 2173
August 1851 11365 2937
September 1529 7941 5373
October 1736 5812 2512
November 1670 4765 1983
December 1828 4851 2108
TOTAL 19755 74454 29426
Month Incidents Injuries Fatalities
January 238 176 165
February 240 578 157
March 341 1060 361
April 327 1983 310
May 265 314 109
June 279 277 464
July 278 990 223
August 302 619 193
September 315 1100 447
October 315 1098 541
November 236 389 370
December 276 765 527
TOTAL 3412 9349 3867
MIPT Terrorism Knowledge Database RAND
37(No Transcript)
38New forms of Terrorism
- Ethical/nationalistic
- Stronger ideological reasons
- Broad based social movement, no longer close knit
former war veterans. - Old Al Qaeda not entirely superseded
- Centralized targeting, ideological direction
operational support - Emergence of autonomous, self-recruited self
starter cells - Coalesce spontaneous plan attack without
reference or active involvement of the global
jihad
http//www.iiss.org/publications
39Is terrorism more predominant in the post cold
war area?
- Predominant extremist fundamental causes are deep
rooted sovereign political state issues.
Terrorism in the post-Cold War world is tied to
the sovereign state system more than ever before.
- Since 1991 terrorism has always been motivated by
parochial ethnic, national, and religious
loyalties than by universalism ideologies.
Terrorism is a international problems extending
beyond sovereignty and rooted in the sovereign
state system rather than less. - Focused on creating their own revolutionary
Islamic regimes rather then submerging them in
utopian Ummah of the Bin Laden world. However
the Ummah concept does have its attractors. - This is in sharp contrast to the Cold War years
- Assumption that terrorism was primarily a product
of an international conspiracy created by the
Soviet Union to spread communism and Soviet
foreign policy. That assumption was never totally
accurate.
Cusimano, Maryann K. 2000. Beyond Sovereignty
Issues for a Global Agenda. Pp. 96-107
http//www.criminology.fsu.edu/transcrime/articles
/counteringterrorism.htm
40Commonalities
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42Commonalities
- Goals, strategies, operations, organization,
ideology, Target, objective, motive, perpetrator,
and legitimacy or legality of the act. - Escalation of force Trigger for violence
- Intifada (Jewish truck driver overrun 5
Palestinians) exploit situation for political
aims - (Aggressive) response by governments
43Commonalities
- Visuals, need for expression
- Terrorist groups were dealing with, I think,
are bound to visuals. - Government platitudes
- All insurgents are terrorists
- Poor law enforcement
- Corruption (Azahari, 50,000 IDR)
- Lack of transparent governance
- Social grievances (Thailand)
44Mass casualties, a serious threat?
- "Trends in terrorism over the past 15 years
indicate that loosely linked transnational
networks motivated primarily by religious
ideologies seeking mass casualties are replacing
more 'traditional' terrorists who are motivated
primarily by politics," says Jason Pate, a senior
research associate at the Monterey Institute of
International Studies. "These ominous trends
suggest the potential for mass-casualty attacks,
and because biological agents could be used in
this fashion, the potential for mass-casualty
bioterrorism may be at hand."
http//usinfo.state.gov/journals/itps/1101/ijpe/pj
63pate-2.htm
45Mass casualties, a serious threat?
- Definition of mass casualties reached new meaning
at the 9/11 attacks - Al Qaeda model, once a year but big!
- High media impact
- High casualties
- Aggressive response by state to alienate masses
46Mass casualties, a serious threat?
- Strains the state security apparatus
- Strains response systems
- To maintain stability and effectiveness of
medical, political and Internal Security systems - Objectives to weaken and collapse the state,
society and the will to fight - High levels of casualties result in emotional
response
47Countermeasures
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49Components of Counter Terror policy
- Public policy diplomacy
- Responsibility of political leadership
- Political aspects of terrorism
- Law enforcement public security
- Deals with the criminal aspects apprehension
judiciary process - Intelligence
- Terrorism are largely covert actions
- Identify intend and prevent, apprehend or
divert/foil the attack - The use of force, including covert action
- proactive in contrast to the mainly reactive
tactics of law enforcement and public security. - Conciliation
- Re-integration of former adversaries to return to
society Process of public healing
50What counter measures we can take against the
threat?
- Addressing the ideological battle
- Recognizing the strong bond within the social
cell unit structure - Zero tolerance policy (French position)
- Countering the media advantage
- Denying battle space, refuge/sanctuaries
- Identifying the less evidence more gut feeling
is needed. Intuitive response
51Principal Strategy
- Terrorism cannot be treated as a monolithic
threat. - Kinetics is only one aspect. CT strategies are a
means to the End - Moreover, as much as we may wish to focus on the
terror tactics and terrorist means, we cannot
overlook the ends. - Policy response must incorporate understanding of
terrorist strategy - Terrorist groups evolve, so must the governments
response - Multiple response strategy
- Address and recognize grievance by population
- Secure the population
- Bolster state legitimacy, demonstrate state
effectiveness regarding insecurity. - Build coalition if necessary cross border promote
social values
52If history is a teacher..
- Every successful CT strategy included
- Fair and firm leadership
- Clear defined policy objectives
- Homegrown political will desire to change and
resisting extremist forces - Unified response command, but defined roles for
- Police
- Intelligence
- Military
- Strategic Intelligence
53I.C.A.R.U.L.S.K/ I.K.A.R.U.S
- Intelligence
- Community/Kinetics
- Authority
- Religious
- Unconventional
- Security
54Intelligence
- Small focused
- Credible accepted field officers
- Promote an environment of trust
- Population, informers and build support base
- Support collection
- Disseminate at tactical response level
- Exploit at strategic level
- Abuses by the adversary
55(No Transcript)
56Ideological battle
- Web mail, Internet, home made video clips, hand
phone cameras - Muaskar al-Battar (The Camp of al-Battar, the
name of Mohammeds sword) - Sawt al-Jihad (The Voice of Jihad)
- Total empowerment for moderate forces
- Education, education, education in schools on
presenting the dangers of extremism
57(No Transcript)
58Authority
- Provide an recognized authority
- Health support
- Property ownership
- Respected responsive police
- Central government leadership at local and
regional level - Education
59Religion
- Ensure religion is not hijacked by extremism
- Maintain control on religious teachings
- Expose and exploit identified false believers or
preachers of hate and dissent - Maintain close relationship between religious
groups
60Unconventional
- Community Development Programs
- Sports, Children, Elderly
- Transportation
- Road conditions
- Media, print and modern communications
- Football game (Soviets loved German TV,
Bay(be)-watch) - Emergency support in case of needs
- Water supplies, telephone, electricity, heat
- Direct Action
- Use of force counter extreme violence, brutality
or bestiality - Human Aspect
61Community
- Must be immediately part of the intelligence
combined efforts - Listen grievances and provide sustainable
protection - Support basic needs (water, shelter, health)
- Keep it simple and honest
- Identify and respect customs
- Shelter, Hospitality Retaliation tribal concepts
62Law Enforcement
- Apprehension
- Functioning court
- Prison process
- Investigation of capital crime and persecution of
capital crimes
63State
- Transparent, honest and better then the adversary
- Economical supportive
- Defined leadership, clear, concise and perceived
as incorruptible - Clear political and strategic mandates
- Supportive educative of its citizens
- but, avoid the rumor drivers
64Kinetics
- Restraint but effective
- Avoid pink misting
- Overly aggressive use of precision ammunition
- Public education of being at war means loosing
men - Clear defined use of force at strategic
tactical level - Increase in SOF, CT forces globally
65Conclusions
66Deep rifts within the political spectrum
- Fighting terrorism, what terrorism is generally
is, the concept of terror, strong support - The interventions in Iraq strong diverse views
increasingly less supported - Afghanistan morally supported, the aim, goals
adversary are clear! - Fear of increasing governance influencing civil
liberties under the mantle fighting terrorism - Clash of civilization is feared dividing
societies - Bilateral relationship are not exploited enough
- Terrorism broad stroked with war is unlikely
providing a solution.
67References Perspectives
- Hamas in its own words http//www.jewishvirtuallib
rary.org/jsource/Terrorism/Hamas1.html - Cyber terrorism http//www.techweb.com/wire/story/
TWB19980923S0016 - http//www.criminology.fsu.edu/transcrime/articles
/counteringterrorism.htm - James Ashcroft, Making A Killing, Virgin Books,
pg. 215 - http//usinfo.state.gov/journals/itps/1101/ijpe/pj
63pate-2.htm - Cusimano, Maryann K. 2000. Beyond Sovereignty
Issues for a Global Agenda. Pp. 96-107 - http//www.iiss.org/publications
- MIPT Terrorism Knowledge Database RAND
- http//www.fas.org/irp/threat/commission.html
- http//www.tamilnation.org/tamileelam/armedstruggl
e/terrorism/index.htm - http//www.armscontrolcenter.org/terrorism/101/def
initions.html - http//www.icrc.org/Web/eng/siteeng0.nsf/htmlall/5
FLCCX/File/irrc_847_Gasser.pdf - http//www.icrc.org/Web/eng/siteeng0.nsf/iwpList74
/A728AA89F447446BC1256C5C00236A3B - http//www.ciaonet.org/wps/hob01/