The Long War

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The Global War on Terrorism Strategy for the
Long War Brigadier General Mark O.
Schissler Joint Staff J-5, Deputy
Director for the War on Terrorism This
briefing is UNCLASSIFIED 6 June 2007
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Agenda

• Understanding the environment
• Understanding the enemy(s)
• Understanding our strategy

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When Was America Attacked?

• 1979 Iranian Hostage Crisis
• 1983 Embassy Marine Barracks Bombing, Lebanon
• 1984 Embassy Official kidnapped and murdered,
  Lebanon
• 1985 TWA Hijacking, U.S. sailor murdered
• Achille Lauro Hijacking, American
  murdered
• 1988 U.S. Marine kidnapped and murdered,
  Lebanon
• USO attacked, Italy
• 1993 World Trade Center Bombing
• 1995 Military Installation attacked, Saudi
  Arabia
• 1995-1997 Palestinian terrorist attacks
  murdered Americans
• 1996 Khobar Towers Bombing, Saudi Arabia
• 1997 Empire State Building Sniper Attack
• 1998 Embassy Bombings, Kenya Tanzania
• 2000 U.S.S. Cole Bombing, Yemen
• 2001 Philippines Hostage Incident
• World Trade Center, Pentagon,
  Shanksville, PA

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Nature of the Conflict
Muslim Society
Extremist Influence

• Leverage Grievances
• Islam is Under Attack
• All Muslims must rise to the defense of Islam
• Re-establish Islamic states under strict Sharia
  Law
• Restore the preeminence of the Muslim world

• GRIEVANCESboth
  perceived and real
• Local Corrupt and ineffective political,
  economic, and social systems,
• high unemployment
• Regional Bias in US policies, (Palestine,
  Kashmir, Iraq, etc)
• heavy handed US operations, occupation of Islamic
  lands
• Global Infusion of Western culture corrupting
  society
• RESULT anger, humiliation,
  and disenfranchisement

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Who is the enemy?

• a transnational movement of extremist
  organizations, networks, and individuals and
  their state and non-state sponsors which have
  in common that they exploit Islam and use
  terrorism for ideological ends.
• Al-Qaida Associated Movement is most dangerous
• Other violent extremist groups also pose a
  serious and continuing threat

Nature of the Enemy - Represent no nation - Do
not mass armies or warships - Defend no
territory - Wear no uniform - Operate in
shadows, conspire in secret, attack without
warning
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Global Terrorists

• Enemy Considerations
• Intentions?
• Capabilities?
• Ambitions?
• Potential?

CIRA Real IRA
IIPB RSRSBCM SPIR
ETA
DHKP/C
IJG / IMU
PKK
17 Nov RN
ETIM
Aum
TCG
AS AQI
MEK
HUM JEM LT
GICM
GIA GSPC
LIFG
IG
IAA
ASG
AUC ELN FARC
AIAI
LTTE
CPP/NPA
JI
Asbat al-Ansar HAMAS Hizballah Kach PLF PIJ PFLP P
FLP-GC
SL
AQ global network
LEGEND
Foreign Terrorist Organization (Immigration and
Nationality Act) Al-Qaida Associated Group
(UNSCR 1267)
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The Changing Nature of Terrorism
From a local threat, with local
communications and local ambitions to a global
threat that uses mass casualty weapons, modern
mass media, with both regional and global
ambitions.
Increased Capabilities
Increased Ambitions
Increased Communication
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Extremist Use of the Internet
Iraq has become the focus of the enemys effort.
If they win in Iraq, they have a base from which
to expand their terror.

• Result
• Strongest army in the world
• Strongest currency in the world
• Largest country in the world
• Atomic and super power country
• Half of world population in Islamic State

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Basic Ideology of al Qaida

• Totalitarian ideology that exploits Islamic
  doctrine to justify the use of violence (jihad)
  unwilling to use political process advocate
  violence to establish a fundamentalist Islamic
  State.
• Believe that only they are the true believers
  (saved sect) all others are only Muslims
• Hostile unbelievers control the world and seek
  the destruction of Islam
• Therefore, jihad against them and their puppets
  is justified
• An Islamic State (Caliphate) is necessary to not
  only to implement Islamic law correctly, but also
  to wage war against the unbelievers

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al-Qaida Strategy
If our intended goal in this age is the
establishment of a caliphate.
1. Expel the Americans from Iraq Establish an
Islamic authority or emirate


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2
1
3. Clash with Israel
2. Extend the jihad wave to the secular
countries neighboring Iraq
Source Letter from al-Zawahiri to al-Zarqawi, 9
July 2005
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Why is Iraq Important?

• al Qaidas first step to establish a Caliphate
• Regional stability
• Access to resources
• A democratic regime to counter extremism
• Moral obligation of the United States.that we
  will not abandon our allies

Iraq is the central front in the War on
Terrorismyet the impact of failure would not
only embolden terrorists, but would likely lead
to genocide, expanded regional conflict, millions
of refugees, an exponential rise in energy
costs, and a loss of US credibility among our
allies.
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What are the Enemys Weaknesses?

• Violence and intimidation are their primary
  tactics
• Oppressive, backward vision for the future
• Multiple cultural, religious and language
  dimensions
• Growing effective and legitimate governance
  erodes support and provides an alternative

So what do we need to do? What is our strategy?
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National Strategic Framework for the GWOT
We must take the battle to the enemy, disrupt
his plans and confront the worst threats before
they emerge. In the world we have entered, the
only path to safety is the path of action.
President George W. Bush

• Strategic Aims
• Defeat violent extremism as a threat to our way
  of life as a free and open society, and
• Create a global environment inhospitable to
  violent extremists and all who support them

Ends
Ways
Means
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U.S. Military Efforts in the Global War on
Terrorism
Multi-National Force Iraq
Combined Joint Task Force 82
Combined Joint Task Force Horn of Africa
Military Assistance to Pakistan
OEF Caribbean Central America
OEF Philippines
2
OEF Trans Sahara
2
Operation Unified Assistance
2
Security Cooperation Plans
3
2
DoD Rewards Program
2
2
LEGEND
Al-Qaida Associated Movement terrorist attacks
Furthest Historical Extent of the Muslim World
c. 1500
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Defeating an Extremist Ideology Takes Time

• Cold War offers several lessons
• Long, sustained struggle punctuated by periods
  of conflict
• Required perseverance by the American people
• Required all instruments of national power to
  win
• Required non-military programs and institutions
• Marshall Plan
• Truman Doctrine
• Radio Free Europe
• Central Intelligence Agency
• Global War on Terrorism requires similar efforts

• World Bank
• International Monetary Fund
• United Nations

Some of you may ask when and how will the Cold
War end? I think I can answer that simply the
Communist world has great resources and it looks
strong, but there is a fatal flaw in their
society. Theirs is a system of slavery. There
is no freedom in it, no consent I have a deep
and abiding faith in the destiny of free men.
With patience and courage, we shall some day move
on into a new era. President Harry S.
Truman, 1953
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Building Capacity Takes Time
For the global community, the withering away
of the state is not a prelude to utopia but to
disaster These weak states have posed threats
to international order because they are the
source of conflict and because they have become
the potential breeding grounds for a new kind of
terrorism that can reach into the developed
world. Francis Fukuyama, State Building,
Cornell University Press, 2004.
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Afghanistan Update
Afghanistan Mar 07
US Coalition ANSF NATO ISAF
24,000 1,000 97,000 34,000

• ISAF has assumed stability and security
  assistance mission throughout Afghanistan
• US maintains responsibility for
  counter-terrorism mission
• US leads development of Security Forces fielded
  forces continue to show improvement
• Persistent presence to deny Al Qaida/ Taliban
  resurgence

Mazar-e Sharif
RC North
156,000
Herat
Kabul
Islamabad
Farah
Kandahar
Quetta
CONSOLIDATED SECURITY OPS UNDER NATO
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Iraq Update

• US Personnel in Iraq 146,965
• Coalition Personnel in Iraq 12,238

Focus of Presidents Revised Strategy 1) Let the
Iraqis Lead 4) Create Space for Political
Progress 2) Help Iraqis Protect the Population
5) Diversify Political and Economic Efforts 3)
Isolate Extremists 6) Nest Strategy in a
Regional Approach
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Implications of Cultural Terrain
Tajik
Uzbek
Turkmen
Chahar
Nuristani
Hazara
Persian
Punjabi
Pashto
Baluchi
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Complex ProblemRequires Complex Approach
Exchanges
Atk Network
Info Ops
Info Ops
Sec Assist
Diplomacy
Econ Assist
Edu Assist
Gov Reform
Info Ops
Hum Assist
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Summary

• Muslim population is key grievances provide
  inroads for violent extremists
• Enemy is not 10 feet tall we know his strategy
  and his weaknesses
• al Qaida has made Iraq its central front
  therefore success in Iraq remains key to defeat
  of global terrorists
• Success requires perseverance not necessarily
  combat
• Reverse grievances in the Muslim World
• Discredit violent extremist ideology
• Build partner nation capacity

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What Keeps Me Awake at Night?

• Terrorist groups gaining access to weapons of
  mass destruction
• Radicalization of Muslim youth that will serve
  to perpetuate violence
• Loss of United States public support and
  political will to defeat this threat while it is
  still in its infancy
• Health of our all-volunteer force

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(No Transcript)
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Transition from Combat Operations to Capacity
Building
We are making measurable progress in the War
on Terrorismbut it will take sustained
assistance and perseverance to build legitimate
and effective governance to counter extremism
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Progress in Iraq

• Iraqi security forces continue to grow 334,000
  trained and equipped Iraqi Security Forces
• Partnership with coalition forces
• Coalition battalion with each Iraqi brigade
• 490 training teams embedded with Iraqi Security
  Forces
• 7 of 18 Provinces transferred to Iraqi control
• Increased political dialogue to find political
  resolution, both domestic and regional/internation
  al
• Positive economic trends increasing GDP,
  decreasing inflation, debt forgiveness, rising
  employment

Progress in Iraq doesnt make the
headlines..slow, deliberate and not without
setbacks, it will take a decade or more of
commitment of the United States. It wont always
require combat operations.