Pertemuan 19 Model Pengambilan Keputusan

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Pertemuan 19Model Pengambilan Keputusan

• Matakuliah J0274/Akuntansi Manajemen
• Tahun 2005
• Versi 01/00

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Learning Outcomes

• Pada akhir pertemuan ini, diharapkan mahasiswa
• akan mampu
• Memahami proses pengambilan keputusan termasuk
  aspek-aspek yang mempengaruhi proses

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Outline Materi

• Informas sebagai barang ekonomi
• Sifat dan tipe keputusan
• Model pengambilan keputusan
• Tahapan pengambilan keputusan

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Informasi sebagai suatu barang ekonomi

• Rantai transformasi
• DATA - INFORMATION - KNOWLEDGE -- WISDOM
• Informasi adalah sebuah special good
• Biaya produksi tinggi
• Biaya reproduski quasi null
• Biaya tetap tinggi, namun biaya marjinal rendah
• Nilai informasi (waktu, volume, ketidakpastian)
• Harga Jual informasi tergantung pada
  nilai/manfaat, bukan pada biaya.

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Sifat Dasar Decision Making

• Pengambilan Keputusan
• Adalah tindakan memilih salah satu alternatif
  dari sekumpulan alternatif yang tersedia.
• Proses Pengambilan Keputusan
• Rangkaian Proses mengenali, mendefinisikan
  situasi, identifikasi alternatif, memilih
  alternatif terbaik, dan implementasinya.
• Sebuah keputusan yang efektif adalh yang
  mengoptimalkan beberapa faktor seperti laba,
  penjualan, kesejahteraan karyawan dan pangsa
  pasar.
• Para manajer membuat keputusan berkenaan dengan
  masalah dan kesempatan.

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Tipe Keputusan

• Keputusan Terprogram
• Suatu Keputusan yang cukup terstruktur (recurs)
  yang kerap berulang.
• Contoh Memanaskan mesin mobil di pagi hari.
• Keputusan Tak terprogram
• Suatu keptusan yang relatif dan terstruktur dan
  terjadi sangat jarang dibandingkan keputusan
  teprogram.
• Contoh Memilih tujuan wisata saat liburan.

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Tipe Keputusan

• Routine and Non-Routine Decisions
• Objective vs. Bounded Rationality
• Level of Certainty

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Kondisi Decision-Making

• Decision Making Under Certainty
• Suatu kondisi dimana manajer memahami dengan baik
  alternatif yang tersedia serta kondisi berkaitan
  dengan setiap alternatif.
• Decision Making Under Risk
• Suatu kondisi berkenaan dengan ketersediaan
  alternatif dan potensi manfaat serta biaya
  resiko.
• Decision Making Under Uncertainty
• Suatu kondisi dimana manajer tidak mengetahui
  seluruh alternatif, resiko setiap alternatif, atu
  konsekuensi untuk setiap alternatif.

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Uncertainty apa saja yang ada?

• Uncertainty karena Teknologi
• Dell and LiOn battery
• Will it work? Will Sony as the only supplier
  have enough capacity?
• Uncertainty berkenaan permintaan
• Economic recession or boom, interest rates,
  inflation, consumer preferences
• Expansion of Saturns Spring Hill Plant
• Uncertainty karena persaingan
• Competitive actions and reactions
• Success of international expansion by Wal-Mart
• Success of new beverages of Coke and Pepsi

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Isu lainnya dalam Decision Making
Incentives for Decision Makers
Short-Run Versus Long-Run Decisions
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Isu lainnya dalam Decision Making

• Pitfalls yang harus dihindari

Sunk costs.
Allocated fixed costs.
Unitized fixed costs.
Opportunity costs.
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Kondisi Decision-Making
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Pandangan Rasional dalamDecision Making

• Model Klasik Decision Making

Figure 9.2
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Langkah Dasar Rational Decision Making

• 1. Identifikasi seluruh opsi (termasuk doing
  nothing).
• 2. Kuantifikasi nilai (biaya) konsekuensi yang
  mungkin timbul untuk setipa opsi
• 3. Prediksi likelihood untuk setiap konsekuensi.
• 4. Integrasi seluruh kemungkinan.

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Kompenen Decision Making

• State /Kondisi
• Adalah kondisi aktual yang mungkin terjadi di
  masa mendatang
• Keputusan / Decision
• Berbagai pilihan dimana seorang decision maker
  dapat memilih satu diantaranya
• Outcomes /hasil
• Hasil dari suatu kombinasi states dan decisions

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Tahapan menuju Good Decisions

• Definisikan problem dan influencing factors
• Tetapkan decision criteria
• Pilih model pengambilan keputusan
• Identifikasi dan evaluasi alternatif menggunakan
  model yang dipilih
• Pilih alternatif terbaik
• Implementasi keptusan
• Evaluasi hasil

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Models

• Memungkinkan manajer melakukan analisis What
  if.
• Disusun untuk manajemen masalah dan manajemen
  input
• Force a consistent and systematic approach to the
  analysis of problems
• Require managers to be specific about constraints
  and goals relating to a problem
• Help reduce the time needed in decision making

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Keterbatasan Models

• They
• may be expensive and time-consuming to develop
  and test
• are often misused and misunderstood (and feared)
  because of their mathematical and logical
  complexity
• tend to downplay the role and value of
  nonquantifiable information
• often have assumptions that oversimplify the
  variables of the real world

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The Decision-Making Process
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Ways of Displaying a Decision Problem

• Decision trees
• Decision tables

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Steps in the Rational Decision-Making Process
Table 9.1a
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Steps in the Rational Decision-Making Process
(contd)
Table 9.1b
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Evaluating Alternatives in theDecision-Making
Process
Figure 9.3
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Behavioral Aspects ofDecision Making (contd)

• Bounded Rationality
• The concept that decision makers are limited by
  their values and unconscious reflexes, skills,
  and habits.
• Satisficing
• The tendency to search for alternatives only
  until one is found that meets some minimum
  standard of sufficiency to resolve the problem.
• Coalition
• A political force in decision making which
  consists of an informal alliance of individuals
  or groups formed to achieve a goal.

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Behavioral Aspects ofDecision Making (contd)

• Intuition
• An innate belief about something without
  conscious consideration.
• Escalation of Commitment
• A decision maker is staying with a decision even
  when it appears to be wrong.
• Risk Propensity
• The extent to which a decision maker is willing
  to gamble when making a decision.

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Behavioral Aspects ofDecision Making (contd)

• Ethics and Decision Making
• Individual ethics (personal beliefs about right
  and wrong behavior) combine with the
  organizations ethics to create managerial
  ethics.
• Components of managerial ethics
• Relationships of the firm to employees
• Employees to the firm
• The firm to other economic agents

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Group and Team Decision Makingin Organizations

• Forms of Group Decision Making
• Interacting groups or teams
• are the most common form of decision-making
  groups which consists of an existing group or
  newly formed team interacting and then making a
  decision.
• Delphi groups
• are sometimes used for developing a consensus of
  expert opinion from a panel of experts who
  individually contribute through a moderator.
• Nominal groups
• are a structured technique designed to generate
  creative and innovative ideas through the
  individual contributions of alternatives that are
  winnowed down through a series of rank-ordering
  of the alternatives to reach a decision.

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Advantages and Disadvantages ofGroup and Team
Decision Making
Table 9.2
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Managing Group and Team Decision-Making Processes

• Managers Can Promote the Effectiveness of Group
  and Team Decision Making
• Being aware of the pros and cons of having a
  group or team make a decision.
• Setting deadlines for when decisions must be
  made.
• Avoid problems with dominance by managing group
  membership.
• Have each group member individually critically
  evaluate all alternatives.
• As a manager, do not make your position known too
  early.
• Appoint a group member to be a devils
  advocate.
• Hold a follow-up meeting to recheck the decision.