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Caminìa
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Caminìa, the basic structure
? mathematical programming model
? spatial
? partial equilibrium
? one homogeneous commodity wheat
? exogenous exchange rates
? perfect competition prevails both on
domestic and international markets
? 19 countries/regions
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Caminìa, the basic structure
? base model time reference 1994
? domestic markets represented through linear
demand, supply and stock release functions
? producer prices are farm gate prices
? consumer prices are net prices to consumer
? domestic transportation and handling costs
? international transportation and handling
costs
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Caminìa, the policy modeling (base model)
? EU compensatory payments fully decoupled
? US deficiency payments fully decoupled
? EU set aside as its rotational equivalent
? minimum guaranteed prices in the EU and the US
? EU export restitutions endogenously
determined
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Caminìa, the policy modeling (base model)
? US EEP export subsidies assumed to be paid
in cash and to be unconstrained
? EU variable levies endogenously determined

? Japans JFA represented as an import quota
? NAFTA
? bilateral agreements
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Caminìa, solver and calibration
? Written in GAMS, solved recursively to
overcome the difficulties due to the high
non-linearity of the constraints
? Average percent difference, in absolute
values, between observed and predicted values
is equal to 2.6 for quantities produced and 3.1
for quantities consumed
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Caminìa, the simulations
? Base 2001, 2002 and 2005
? expected changes in demand (population, per
capita income)
? expected changes in supply (yields)
? FAIR Act
? implementation of 1992 Cap reform
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Caminìa, the simulations
1994 GATT Agreement on agriculture
? domestic support commitments irrelevant
? tariff levels country schedules, unless
applied tariffs were lower than binding ones
? EU tariff protection variable levy
? Japan import quota adjusted
? TRQs
? export competition commitments individually
explicitly modeled
? US export subsidies maximizing exports
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Caminìa, the simulations
? Agenda 2000
? intervention price
1994 119.19 2001 110.25 (-7.5) 2002
2005 101.31 (- 15)
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Caminìa where does it come from? Where is it
now? Where is it going?
? Where does Caminia come from? - Anania and
McCalla, AJAE, 1991 - Anania, Bohman and
Carter, AJAE, 1992 - Solagral, 1998
? Where is it now? Anania, 2001
? Where is it going? more runs of
current version (EU enlargement, /Euro
exchange rate sensitivity multi-product
cereals, meats and dairy