Global Environmental Change and Food Systems (GECAFS)

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Global Environmental Change and Food Systems
(GECAFS)

• The Caribbean Food System Background,
  Socio-economic Issues and Vulnerability to GEC
• Ranjit Singh (UWI, Trinidad)
• Adrian Trotman (CIMH, Barbados)

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Country Profile Table - CARICOM 2000 (Physical)
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Country Profile Table - CARICOM 2000 (Economic
Indicators)
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Regional characterisation

• Many small island states (apart from Guyana and
  Belize)
• Diverse cultures, environments and food provision
  systems
• Great dependence on food imports
• Reliance on export crops, tourism other
  non-food sectors (e.g. minerals) to provide
  revenue
• Susceptibility to weather extremes
• Susceptibility to changes in preferential export
  markets
• Weak regional-level institutional connectivity

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Major Sources of Foreign Exchange

• Agricultural exports
• Tourism
• Exception Trinidad and Tobago where the energy
  sector is dominant
• Oil
• Gas (LNG)
• Methanol
• Ammonia

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The Caribbean Region A Net Importer of Food
(US Billion) (US Billion)
1999 2000
CARICOM Imports 2.956 2.061
Exports 1.092 1.223
Caribbean Imports 3.350
Exports 1.947
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Caribbean Food Imports Dominated By

• Cereal wheat corn
• Food livestock feed
• Oils soyabean and corn
• Meat Products

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Overall Impact

• Declining production
• Declining incomes
• Increasing levels of poverty/unemployment
• Increasing incidence of malnutrition

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Priority Policy Goals for CARICOM

• Food security
• Enhancing productivity and international
  competitiveness in agriculture
• Food safety
• Rural employment
• Sustainability of the food/agricultural sector
  and rural communities

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Aspects of GEC of particular concern to the
Caribbean region

• Changing climate variability
• Changes in mean climate (including global change)
• Changes in the frequency, intensity and tracking
  of tropical cyclones and other extreme weather
  events
• Sea level rise
• GEC and social impacts on land and water
  resources and availability

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Vulnerability

• Increase in atmospheric temperature
• Global average surface temp. projected to warm
  1.4-5.8 C by 2100 relative to 1990
• Changes in crop responses
• Heat stress in livestock
• Greater change further poleward which may imply
  change in markets, competition from what were
  existing or potential markets
• Increased sea surface temperatures
• Damage to coral reefs
• Losses of current marine/fishing species
• Loss of tourist attraction (diving and
  snorkeling)
• Changing species (non-reef)

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Vulnerability

• Tropical storms and hurricanes
• Increased frequency and intensities
• Greater infrastructural damage
• Losses of agricultural production
• Other severe systems
• Reports of greater intensities without
  necessarily an increase in annual rainfall
• Flooding
• Runoff and erosion

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Vulnerability

• Sea level rise
• Global average sea level projected to rise
  0.09-0.88m by 2100
• Small islands with loss of significant land area,
  most cities situated near sea ports
• In the case of Guyana loss of capital city of
  majority of agriculture
• Salt water intrusion
• Destruction of beaches, losses to tourism

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Vulnerability

• Drought
• Often associated with ENSO (in conjunction with
  NAO) events
• Crop and livestock losses in states whose
  agricultural production are mainly rainfed
• Agriculture water competing with domestic,
  tourism and other industries

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Overarching GECAFS Questions

• Theme 1 How will GEC (especially land
  degradation, variability in rainfall
  distribution, sea surface temperature, tropical
  storms and sea-level rise) affect vulnerability
  of food systems in the Caribbean?
• Theme 2 What combinations of policy and
  technical diversification in food harvested and
  traded for local consumption, in export
  commodities and in tourism would best provide
  effective adaptation strategies?
• Theme 3 What would be the consequences of these
  combinations on national and regional food
  provision, local livelihoods and natural resource
  degradation?

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Story lines developed for two spatial
levelsLocal and Regional

• STORY LINE 1 LOCAL LEVEL
• Target Food systems in resource-poor communities
  based on fishing and locally-produced food crops.
• Aim To reduce food system vulnerability,
  especially in relation to changes in climate
  variability.

• STORY LINE 2 REGIONAL LEVEL
• Target Caribbean regional food provision.
• Aim To develop regional-level strategies to
  reduce the additional complications GEC would
  bring to regional food provision, given changing
  preferential export markets.

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GECAFS QuestionsLocal Level

• Theme 1 How would changes in climate variability
  and water availability affect food systems of
  communities on different islands?
• Theme 2 How would current national and regional
  policy instruments (e.g. access to markets,
  insurance schemes, EEZs) best be adjusted to
  enhance the effectiveness of technical options
  for diversifying cropping systems and fisheries
  so as to reduce vulnerability to GEC?
• Theme 3 To what extent would these strategies
  affect food provision by altering the
  proportional reliance on local vs. imported
  commodities, and how would changed land
  management and associated changes in runoff
  affect coastal fisheries and other aspects of
  coastal zone ecology and tourism income based on
  this?

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GECAFS QuestionsRegional Level

• Theme 1 What additional factors would GEC bring
  to destabilise the regions food system, and in
  particular what would be their impact on revenue
  generation from different cash commodities?
• Theme 2 How could regional institutional changes
  best be introduced to sustain regional food
  provision by maximising diversification options
  and inter-island trade?
• Theme 3 How would changes in intra-regional
  trade, and in policy and technical development at
  a regional level affect development in individual
  islands, and how could such changes be promoted
  to conserve the natural resource base of the
  region?

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Regional Response Challenges

• Diversification challenges
• Difficulty of achieving economics of scale
• Production characterized by small fragmented
  farms
• Sloping and hilly terrain limit mechanization and
  labour-saving technology
• Market access/penetration constraints
• Shipping/handling costs
• Quality issues
• Lack of critical export volumes

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Regional Response Challenges (Continued)

• Rapid conversion of best arable lands to
  housing/built development
• Problem of losses from crop/livestock larceny
• Declining water resource availability
• Degradation of watersheds
• Weak RD and Innovation Support
• Weak linkage of agrifood sector with tourism