Global Environmental Change

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Global Environmental Change and Food
Systems GECAFS A Joint Project of IGBP, IHDP
WCRP in Research Partnership with
the Consultative Group on International
Agriculture Research (CGIAR) and in Collaboration
with WMO
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Global Environmental Change IssuesChanges caused
by human activities
Changes in
Climate variability and extreme events Water
availability and quality Climate mean values
Land use and cover Nitrogen availability Atmos
pheric composition
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Global Change and food production
systems Impacts of Global Change Global Change
(esp. climatic variability) will complicate
management of current crop and fisheries
production systems Feedbacks to Global
Change Environmental consequences of increasing
food production will exacerbate Global Change
(e.g. habitat degradation, biodiversity, GHGs
emissions)
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Emerging issues for world food production
(adapted from IFPRI, 1997)
Fresh water supplies Soil fertility and
fertilizer use Climate variability and climate
change Trade liberalization and market
reform Applications of emerging technologies
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International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme
(IGBP) A programme of the International Council
for Science (ICSU)
8 Core Projects, 2 directly related to food
systems Global Change and Terrestrial Ecosystems
(GCTE) most relevant to cropping systems Global
Ocean Ecosystem Dynamics (GLOBEC) most relevant
to marine fisheries
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• International Human Dimensions Programme of
  Global Environmental Change (IHDP)
• A programme of the International Social Science
  Council (ISSC)
• General IHDP issues
• How do human actions contribute to GEC?
• Why are these actions taken?
• How does GEC feedback into peoples lives?
• What actions can be taken by whom to respond to,
  reduce and mitigate GEC?
• 4 Core Projects, all directly relevant to food
  systems
• Land-Use and -Cover Change (LUCC, co-sponsored
  with IGBP)
• Institutional Dimensions of Global Environmental
  Change (IDGEC)
• Global Environmental Change and Human Security
  (GECHS)
• Industrial Transformation (IT)

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•  World Climate Research Programme (WCRP)
• A joint WMO-ICSU programme
• 5 International Science Projects
• Most relevant Project for cropping systems and
  fisheries is
• Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR)
• Describe and understand climate variability and
  predictability on seasonal to centennial
  time-scales
• Identify the physical processes responsible,
  including anthropogenic effects and
• Develop modelling and predictive capabilities
  where practicable.

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• How they work
• scientific research
• research capacity-building
• integration and synthesis
• international scientific networks

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GECAFS Goal To determine strategies to cope with
the impacts of Global Environmental Change on
food provision systems and to analyse the
environmental and socioeconomic consequences of
adaptation.
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Food Provision
Production f (yield, area) Availability f
(production, distribution) Access f
(availability, socioeconomic potential e.g.
affordability, physiological potential e.g.
nutritional quality) Provision f
(production, availability, access)
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GECAFS Fundamental Questions

1. Given changing demands for food, how will GEC
   additionally affect food provision and
   vulnerability in different regions and among
   different social groups?
2. How might different societies and different
   categories of producers adapt their food systems
   to cope with GEC against the background of
   changing demand?
3. What would be the environmental and socioeconomic
   consequences of such adaptations?

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GECAFS Science Themes Theme 1 Vulnerability and
Impacts Effects of GEC on Food Provision Theme
2 Adaptations GEC and Options for Enhancing Food
Provision Theme 3 Feedbacks Environmental and
Socioeconomic Consequences of Adapting Food
Systems to GEC
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Socioeconomic Change
Global Environmental Change
Theme 1 Vulnerability and Impacts
Theme 3 Environmental Feedbacks
Theme 2 Adaptations
Adapted Food Provision
Food Provision
Theme 3 Socioeconomic Feedbacks
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Theme 1 Vulnerability and Impacts Effects of
Global Environmental Change on Food
Provision Overarching questions In which
regions and to what extent are food production
and provision potentially sensitive to GEC, and
why?   How will anticipated changes in food
production due to GEC influence the availability
and accessibility of food?   To what extent might
anticipated changes in socioeconomic conditions
influence the impacts of GEC on food production
potential?
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Theme 2 Adaptations Global Environmental Change
and Options for Enhancing Food Provision Overarch
ing questions How have food production systems
coped with or adapted to environmental
variability and change in the past?   What types
of GEC will exceed the thresholds and speed of
adaptive responses of current food production
systems?   Are existing institutions capable of
providing effective adaptation options?   What
are the future costs to food provision of
delaying the implementation of response
strategies to GEC?
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Theme 3 Feedbacks Environmental and
Socioeconomic Consequences of Adapting Food
Systems Overarching questions How and to what
extent will the environment be affected by
adapting food systems in response to both
changing demands and GEC?   What are the
socio-economic consequences of these
adaptations?   To what extent are management
responses effective in mitigating GEC and
consistent with socioeconomic capacities?
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Socioeconomic Change
Global Environmental Change
Theme 1 Vulnerability and Impacts
Theme 3 Environmental Feedbacks
Theme 2 Adaptations
Adapted Food Provision
Food Provision
Theme 3 Socioeconomic Feedbacks
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•  Example new areas of interdisciplinary science
• Methodologies to address regional- and
  sub-regional issues by (i) aggregating
  small-scale food systems and (ii) disaggregating
  global-scale scenarios and datasets.
• Methodologies for policy analysis of
  environmental and socioeconomic tradeoffs in food
  systems.
• Use of past records of societal adaptations to
  biophysical changes to provide inputs to
  scenario-based models of the future.
• New analysis and insights into the institutional
  factors that can reduce societal vulnerability to
  GEC.
• Developing vulnerability indices and
  comprehensive scenarios of future conditions.
• Analysis of changing human wealth and food
  preferences and interactions with biophysical
  models of GEC to produce new insights of regions
  where food provision may be sensitive to GEC.

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Criteria for individual GECAFS projects

• Have a clear GEC dimension
• Include all 3 GECAFS Themes with a strong design
  for internal integration
• Clearly identify, and demonstrate end-user
  involvement in all stages
• Help develop policy at project level
• Include capacity development

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• Implementation possibilities for individual
  projects
• Initiate new research projects
• - little existing research addressing the
  interdisciplinary nature of this project
• the spatial and interdisciplinary scales of the
  required analyses will best be tailor-made to
  address particular interests of scientists,
  policy makers and donors.
• Identify, build upon and add value to suitable
  ongoing research (e.g. CPACC-Agriculture?).

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• Scientific framework
• The scientific framework will be provided by
  IGBP, IHDP and WCRP building on their respective
  strengths of
• internationally-agreed science agendas which
  specifically include impacts, adaptation and
  feedbacks research
• well-developed coordination and synthesis
  mechanisms
• and will be further developed by consolidating
  links between the Global Change science community
  and research organisations working on
  agricultural, policy formulation and development
  issues.

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• Strategic alliances
• Need to be established from an early stage with
• National and international research bodies, e.g.
  national academies and research centres and the
  CGIAR and science bodies within ICSU
• Assessment agencies and groups, e.g. WRI, MA
• International agencies, e.g. FAO, WMO, World Bank
• National and international donor agencies and
  other potential investors

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GECAFS interactions with Sponsoring Programmes
and with example collaborations
NARS CGIAR
GECAFS
FAO
IIASA
MA
WMO
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• GECAFS Caribbean Project
• Initial w/s (April 2002, Trinidad)
• Dialogue within the GECAFS framework between
  national scientists policy makers and GECAFS
  scientists to overall global change issues in the
  region
• CFS and GEC Issue Identification w/s (Oct 2002,
  St Lucia?)
• Prepare Synthesis paper of CFS and GEC issues
• Identify GECAFS possible research areas and
  collaborators
• Research Planning w/s (2003?)
• Detailed GECAFS research strategy planning to
  establish scientific objectives collaborators
  funding needs and mechanisms how to maintain
  dialogue with the policy community
• Research Implementation Phase (3 - 5 yrs)

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• GECAFS Distinguishing Features
• A robust framework for novel, interdisciplinary
  approaches to GEC research that examines
  vulnerability to impacts, adaptations and
  feedbacks.
• A problem-oriented approach which can bring
  together the GEC and Development agendas, and
  their donor communities.
• A methodology which allows an analysis of
  trade-offs between managing resources for food
  provision and environmental concerns.
• A design for analyses at regional and
  sub-regional levels but which is
  globally-applicable in concept.

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Socioeconomic Change
Global Environmental Change
Theme 1 Vulnerability and Impacts
Theme 3 Environmental Feedbacks
Theme 2 Adaptations
Adapted Food Provision
Food Provision
Theme 3 Socioeconomic Feedbacks