Global Environmental Change

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Global Environmental Change Changes in the
biophysical environment caused or strongly
influenced by human activities
For example changes in
Land cover soils Atmospheric composition
Climate variability means Water availability
quality
Nitrogen availability cycling Biodiversity Sea
currents salinity Sea level
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Simulated maize yields baseline and changes by
2055 (from Jones Thornton, CGIAR, 2001)
present
2055
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GECAFS Goal
To determine strategies to cope with the impacts
of global environmental change on food systems
and to assess the environmental and socioeconomic
consequences of adaptation responses.
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Food Provision
Provision f (production,
availability, access) Production f (yield,
area) Availability f (production,
distribution, storage) Access f (availability,
socioeconomic potential e.g. affordability,
physiological potential e.g. nutritional
quality)
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GECAFS Long-Term Aims

• Understand how GEC will additionally affect food
  provision in different regional food systems.
• ? GECAFS Science Theme 1
• Determine how different food systems might be
  adapted to cope with both GEC and changing
  demands.
• ? GECAFS Science Theme 2
• Assess the environmental and socioeconomic
  consequences of such adaptations.
• ? GECAFS Science Theme 3

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GECAFS Science Themes
Socioeconomic Change
Global Environmental Change
Theme 1 Vulnerability and Impacts
Theme 3 Environmental Feedbacks
Theme 2 Adaptations
Adapted Food Provision
Food Provision
Theme 3 Socioeconomic Feedbacks
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Two types of GECAFS Projects

• Food Systems Research
• Sub-continental scale
• e.g. Subsistence commercial arable
  (Indo-Gangetic Plain)
• Import subsistence arable fishing
  (Caribbean)
• Conceptual and Methodological Research
• Generic
• e.g. Vulnerability concepts
• Scenario development

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Food Systems Research Projects

• Research being developed to
• relate to regional development needs
• have relevance to current and near-term issues,
  as well as to longer-term issues

• Ensures a GEC science agenda that
• interacts effectively with the regional policy
  making process and thereby encourages more
  support for the regional science communities
• attracts donor support from outside the
  traditional GEC funding community

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Food Systems Research Projects Selection Criteria

• Principal Criteria
• Range of Food Systems
• Range of GEC Issues
• Other Criteria (alphabetically listed)
• Geographical balance of the portfolio of projects
• Policy interest/mechanism at project scale
• Potential donor interest
• Potential links to IGBP, IHDP WCRP Core
  Projects
• Potential regional coordination/leadership
• Relevance to regional development

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Food Systems Research Projects Initial Set Main
GEC Issues

• Subsistence commercial arable (Indo-Gangetic
  Plain)
• water availability, climate change
  variability, GHG emissions
• Import subsistence arable fishing (Caribbean)
• climate variability, sea-level rise, coastal
  zone degradation
• Commercial subsistence arable livestock
  (Southern Africa)
• climate variability, land degradation
• Income/livelihoods-based (Eastern Pacific coastal
  fisheries)
• ENSO/sea currents, marine biodiversity loss

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Conceptual Methodological Research Initial Set

• Vulnerability Concepts
• To integrate concepts of vulnerability of social
  aspects of food systems with concepts from
  natural science to provide a more holistic
  approach to vulnerability studies.
• Scenario Construction
• To determine how to construct the comprehensive
  scenarios needed for providing appropriate
  context for GECAFS food systems research.
• Decision Support Systems Development
• To develop, evaluate and refine innovative
  decision support systems for use in GECAFS food
  systems research.

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Population density in areas where the length of
the growing period (LGP) is lt90 days. Based on
Global Agro-ecological Zones (AEZ), Landscan2000
population density, and irrigation maps (from
FAO, GIS-SDRN unpublished).
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GECAFS Distinguishing Features

• A robust framework for novel, interdisciplinary
  approaches to GEC research that examines
  vulnerability to impacts, adaptations and
  feedbacks.
• A problem-oriented, policy-relevant approach
  which can bring together the GEC and Development
  agendas, and their donor communities.
• A design for analyses at regional and
  sub-regional levels which will help develop
  effective policy to protect vulnerable sections
  of society.
• A methodology which allows an analysis of
  trade-offs between managing resources for both
  food provision and environment.

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Potential GECAFS questions for Eastern Pacific
Coastal Fisheries
How will climate variability and other aspects of
GEC affect food systems and livelihoods dependent
on pelagic, demersal and coastal fishing? GECAFS
Science Theme 1 What management and policy
strategies will best reduce the vulnerability of
fisheries-based livelihoods to climate
variability and increase employment
opportunities? GECAFS Science Theme 2 What
will be the consequences of alternative
strategies for local and regional biodiversity,
and for poverty alleviation in coastal
communities? GECAFS Science Theme 3