Food Challenges in the 21st Century

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Food Challenges in the 21st Century From the
Plough to the Plate Production Sustainable
Agriculture Environmental Protection Biodiversity
and Agro-biodiversityAgricultural research and
Technology Climate Change and Variability Domest
ic and International Access, Availability
Trade Consumption Population, Diet,
Income Food Security and Mal-nutrition Food
Security and Obesity
Mahendra Shah IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria GECAFS
Food Systems Workshop London, 21-22 October 2004
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Human Rights
Food Water Education Health Care Social
Security Clean/Safe Environment Freedom form
Harassment Freedom from Discrimination Opportuniti
es for Participation
International Commitments in a World of
Disparities
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Hunger in a World of Plenty
World Food Summits 1974,1996, 2002 MDGs 2000
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The Risks of Too
Much Food
EDUCATION
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Millennium Development Goals Targets to 2015
(long history of international political
goals) POVERTY 1948( Universal Declaration-Human
Rights) World Summits 1972 Stockholm 1990
Children 1995 Social Development 1996 Food
2000 G8 Okinawa Millennium Summit 2000 HUNGER
World Food Summits 1974,1996, 2002 Millennium
Summit 2000 Education and Gender Equity 1974
UNESCO Convention 1990 World Conference on
education 1994 UN IPCD 1995 Social Development
Summit 1995 Beijing 2000 World education Forum
Millennium Summit 2000 Health 1974 Bucharest
1984 Mexico 1992 Rio 1994 Cairo 1995
Copenhagen 2000 Millennium Summit Environmental
and Development 1972 Stockholm 1992 Rio WSSD
2002
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Food Agriculture Millennium Development Goals
2015 50 Reduction in POVERTY (1a) Agriculture
gt 70 of poor in rural areas Livelihoods/
employment on farm/ rural off farm 50
Reduction in HUNGER (1b) Agriculture gt Food 90
of agriculture Rural and urban hunger-
access/affordability/safety Universal Primary
Education (2) Eliminate Gender Disparity
(3) Agriculture gt Firewood collection and
cooking Focus on primary education 67 Reduction
in child mortality (4) 75 Reduction in maternal
mortality (5) Halt and reverse spread/incidence
of HIV/AIDS/Malaria/Diseases (6) Agriculture gt
Rural and Urban Investments in Health Care Ensure
Environmental sustainability (7) Agriculture gt
Largest user/ highest impact on ecosystems and
ecosystem services Biodiversity and
Agro-biodiversity Global Environmental Change
poses greatest threat Water scarcity Fragile
ecosystems hill sides, semi-arid areas,
watersheds, forests etc Develop a global
partnership for development (8) Agriculture gt
ODA/ investments - agriculture research/extension/
developmentWTO Reforms The Food Agricultural
Challenge Differentially Vulnerable Populations
and Ecosystems Sustainability of Natural
Resources Agricultural Technology
Relevance/Risks/Benefits/IPR Infrastructure and
Marketing Education and training Nutrition and
Diets
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Human Population
2000
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Regional Diversity and Demography, 1700 1990
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Demographic Transition 2000-2050
Population 2000, 2050 regional distribution
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Expanding Cropland 1700-1990 Fraction of grid
cell in croplands
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Intensive Mono Cropping
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Intensive Meat and Fish Production
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• Agricultural Vulnerability Sustainability
  Sciences
• Political Vulnerability
• Disenfranchisement
• Societal Vulnerability
• Poverty, Hunger, Health, Population, Knowledge
• Environmental Vulnerability
• Resources, Degradation, Pollution, Climate
  Variability and Change
• Economic Vulnerability
• Farm and off-Farm Investments, Agricultural
  Research and Extension, Prices, Credit,
  Infrastructure, Livelihoods
• Technological Vulnerability
• Research and Extension Capacity,
  Agro-biodiversity, IPRs
• Internal and External Factors

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What can science and research contribute to
foster sustainable development?

• How can the dynamic interactions between nature
  and society, including lags and inertia, be
  better incorporated in emerging models that
  integrate the Earth system, human development,
  and sustainability?? INTEGRATED SYSTEMS VIEW
• What determines the vulnerability or resilience
  of the nature-society system for particular
  places, ecosystems, and livelihoods? ?
  UNDERSTAND ROBUSTNESS / HETEROGENEITY
• Can scientifically meaningful limits or
  boundaries be defined that would provide
  effective warning of conditions beyond which the
  nature-society systems incur a significantly
  increased risk of degradation?
• ? UNDERSTAND NONLINEARITIES / INTERACTIONS

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What can science and research contribute to
foster sustainable development?

1. What systems of incentive structures including
   markets, rules, norms and scientific information
   can most effectively improve social capacity to
   guide human interventions toward more sustainable
   trajectories? ? ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES
2. How are long-term trends in environment and
   development, including consumption and
   population, reshaping nature-society
   interactions? ? INTEGRATED SCENARIOS
3. How can todays operational systems for
   monitoring and reporting on environmental and
   social conditions be integrated or extended to
   provide more useful guidance to navigate a
   transition toward sustainability? ? INFORMATION
   INTEGRATION

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Information Relevance and Utility

• Earth-based Information
• Ground Assessment, Household Surveys, Market
  Information
• Science and research, Traditional Knowledge
• ..
• Space-based Information
• IGOS Integrated Global Observing Strategy
• GISD Global Information for Sustainable
  Development
• .
• Harmonizing Earth-based and Space-based
  Information
• Integrated analytical tools Scientific
  understanding and policy analysis
• National Policy making and implementation
• International negotiations and agreements
• .
• Developing Country Capacity Building
• Achieving Sustainable Development Reaching the
  Farmers and Consumers

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IIASA www.iiasa.ac.at Global Food and
Agricultural System Global Environmental
Change Global Economy Integrated
Ecological-Economic Science for Policy Actions

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Agro-ecological Zones Methodology
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Agro-ecological Zones MethodologyGeographical
Data Layers
1. Monthly climatology 1960 1996 CRU at
University of East Anglia at 0.5 deg.
latitude/longitude
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Agro-ecological Zones MethodologyGeographical
Data Layers
3. FAO/Unesco digital Soil Map of the World UN
Food and Agriculture Organization at 5 arc-min.
latitude/longitude
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Agro-ecological Zones MethodologyGeographical
Data Layers
5. Global gridded population distribution data of
1995 CIESIN at 2.5 arc-min. latitude/longitude
resolution.
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Global Agro-ecological Zones Environmental
resources databaseincluding climate, soil,
terrain, and land covercomprising 2.2 million
grid cells,assessing the agricultural potential
of food and fiber crops, pastures, trees etcat
three levels of farming technology.
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BLS Model System18 National Models, 2 Regional
Models, 14 other Regional ModelsCommodities
wheat, rice, coarse grains, protein feed, bovine
and ovine meat,dairy products, other animal
products, other food, non-food agriculture,non-agr
iculture.Linkage trade, world market prices
and financial flows

• National and Regional Models
• Argentina, Australia, Austria, Brazil, Canada,
  Egypt, Indonesia, Japan, Kenya, Mexico, New
  Zealand, Nigeria, Pakistan, Thailand, Turkey,
  China, India, USA
• European Union, Eastern Europe and former USSR
• AFRICA (Oil exporters, medium and low income
  exporters and importers)
• LATIN AMERICA (high-income exporters and
  importers, medium income)
• SOUTHEAST ASIA (high-medium income exporters and
  importers)
• SOUTH ASIA (low income)
• SOUTHWEST ASIA (oil exporters, medium-low income)
• Rest of the world

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The International Linkage in the World Food
System Model
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Integrated ecological-economic Analysis of the
Impact of Climate Change on Food and Agriculture
Systems
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IPCC SRES Scenarios
Source IPCC, 2001.
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(No Transcript)
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IPCC SRES Development Scenarios to 2100
Population, Scenario A1, B1
GDP per caput
Population, Scenario B2
Population, Scenario A2
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3.7
Environmental constraints to rain-fed
agriculture, reference climate 1961-90
3.8
Environmental constraints to rain-fed
agriculture, HadCM3-A1FI 2080s
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Impact of Climate Change on Extents of Land with
Constraints for Agriculture Hadley A1f, 2080s
Note This transition table shows changes due to
climate change of extents of land with no,
slight, moderate and severe constraints for
agricultural use. The diagonal indicates land
remaining within the broad classes. Values to the
right of the diagonal indicate a worsening of
agro-ecological conditions, values to the left of
the diagonal an improvement.
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Comparison of land with rain-fed crop production
potential for current climate, for future climate
projected by HadCM3-A1FI in 2080s, and land in
use for cultivation in 1994-96 (million ha).
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Cultivated Land projected for different IPCC
economic development paths
WORLD
Source Fischer et al., 2002
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
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Changes in cereal-production potential versus
increase in atmospheric CO2 concentrations and
related global warming
DEVELOPED, all land
DEVELOPED, current cultivated land






DEVELOPING, all land
DEVELOPING, current cultivated land
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India Climate Change Yield Impact - 2050
Note weighted yield impact for rain-fed and
irrigated cultivation ( change).
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India Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture
2080
Note percent change relative to respective
reference projection without climate change.
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Country-level Climate Change Impacts onCereal
Production Potential on CurrentlyCultivate
d Land 2080s
ECHAM4
HadCM2
CGCM1
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Country-level Climate Change Impacts onCereal
Production Potential on CurrentlyCultivate
d Land 2080s
ECHAM4
HadCM2
CGCM1
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Country-level Climate Change Impacts onCereal
Production Potential on CurrentlyCultivate
d Land 2080s
ECHAM4
HadCM2
CGCM1
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Country-level Climate Change Impacts onCereal
Production Potential on CurrentlyCultivate
d Land 2080s
ECHAM4
HadCM2
CGCM1
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Cereal Production, Net Imports of Developing
Countries projected for different IPCC economic
development paths
PRODUCTION
Source Fischer et al., 2002
NET IMPORTS,CEREALS
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Economic Impacts of Climate ChangeHadley A1F1
Scenario 2080
Ag GDP Cereal Production World
-1.5 -1.4 Developed -0.5
2.8 North America 7.5 1.3 Europe
-14.7 -3.4 Devloping
-1.9 -3.9 Africa -4.9 -0.6 Latin
america 3.7 15.9 Asia -4.3 -8.6 World
Market prices( change from Ref
Scenario) Cereals 19.5 All crops 10.5
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Number of People at Risk of Hungerprojected for
different IPCC economic development paths
AFRICA
Source Fischer et al., 2002
SOUTH, SOUTEAST and EAST ASIA
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Food Insecurity in the World (FAO, 2000)
Number of Countries Population 1997millions Under-nourished 1997millions Average daily food deficit (kcal/capita)
Group 1 28 2180 223 240
Group 2 27 1517 339 285
Group 3 23 464 220 360
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Food Security Impact of Climate Change on Food
Production, 2080s
Number of Countries Population1995 millions Under-nourished millions Cereal Production 1995 mill. tons Cereal Gap 1995 mill. tons Climate Impact 2080s mill. tons
LOSING
ECHAM4 27 1661 386 362 -12 -60
HadCM2 25 1379 321 277 -10 -156
CGCM1 45 2077 396 467 -12 -135
WINNING
ECHAM4 20 1592 210 481 -6 99
HadCM2 37 2057 275 598 -8 192
CGCM1 17 540 166 100 -6 42
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Additional number of People at Risk of Hungerdue
to Climate Change for socioeconomic conditions of
IPCC scenario A2
Additional number of undernourished resulting in
BLS simulations plotted against different levels
of atmospheric CO2 concentrations and associated
climate changes in 2080s, for projections of
HadCM3 and CSIRO models
Source Fischer et al., 2002
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Food Systems Policy Issues and Methodology
Challenges

• Sustainability of Land Use Systems
• Economy-Environment Relations
• Efficiency vs. Equity
• Millennium Development Goals

• Spatially disaggregated modeling
• Methodological foundations and applications for
  treating heterogeneity
• - Theoretical foundations of aggregation (over
  heterogeneous environments,
  actors, markets, commodities)
• - Downscaling methods
• Cross-sector linkages
• - Urbanization Infrastructure development
• - Water supply and use
• - Technological change
• - Globalization and trade

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Food Systems Policy Issues and Methodology
Challenges

• GHG stabilization
• Vulnerability, adaptation capacity
• Framework for adaptation and mitigation

• Climate change impacts
• Adaptation needs and options
• Land-based mitigation strategies
• - Biomass energy
• - Afforestation
• - Land use patterns and management
• Climate variability and extreme events
• Treatment of uncertainty