The Global Environmental Change and Human Security Project

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The Global Environmental Change and Human
Security Project
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INTRODUCTION

• Review development of GECHS.
• Highlight recent activities and planned research
• Discuss GECAFSCFS - GECHS linkages

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GECHS Origins

• Redefinition of traditional security concepts

• Human security the Canadian/international
  policy agenda

• Environment economy linkages

• Critical zones mapping

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Key Questions Underlying GECHS
Context
Response Options

• What types of environmental change threaten
  human security?

What strategies are potentially available to cope
with the insecurities caused by environmental
change?

• How does environmental change threaten human
  security?

• What is the present extent of insecurity?

Analysis

• Which regions and groups are the most insecure?

• Why are some strategies selected?

• Can we predict future insecurities?

• Why are some effective?

• Why are some regions and groups more vulnerable
  to specific environmental change than others?

• How can obstacles be overcome?

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Human Security Defined

• Human Security is
• having the options necessary to end, mitigate or
  adapt to threats to their human, environmental
  and social rights
• participating in attaining these options
• having the capacity and freedom to exercise
  these options.

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Improving human security means improving
livelihood

• Human security is the capacity
• to overcome vulnerability
• and to respond positively
• to environmental change

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GECHS Goals

• to advance interdisciplinary, international
  research
• to advance policy efforts in the area of human
  security environmental change
• to promote collaborative participatory research
• to encourage new methodological approaches

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Current Project Structure

• International Project Office
• University of Victoria (99-02)
• Carleton University (02-present)
• Project Chair
• Mike Brklacich, Carleton University
• Scientific Steering Committee
• Australia, Cambodia, Canada, Costa Rica,
  Netherlands, Ghana, Norway, Russia, USA
• Project Website www.gechs.org

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GECHS ACTIVITIES

• Research Themes Projects
• Three GEC Vulnerability Case Studies
• Human Insecurity Index (Macro)
• Double Exposure in India (Macro Micro)
• Food System Vulnerabilities Canadian Cases
  (Micro)

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GECHS ResearchThemes Activities

• Conceptual Theoretical Issues
• Environ., Resource Use HS
• Population, Environment HS
• Modelling Environmental Stress Human
  Vulnerability
• Institutions Policy Development in
  Environmental Security
• Policy Briefings

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Human VulnerabilityScience Policy Linkages

• Identify vulnerable populations/regions
• Assess interventions to reduce human
  vulnerability
• Trade-offs between improving adaptive capacity vs
  mitigation vs multi-dimensional responses

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Human Insecurity Index

• National Level Study
• Employ Existing Data
• Illustrate Current Potential Applications

PI S. Lonergan
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Reminder Human Security
Human security is having the capacity to overcome
vulnerability and respond positively to global
environmental change Multi-dimensional
indicators required
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Human Insecurity Indicator Set
Environment Net energy imports ( of energy
use) Soil degradation (tonnes/yr) Safe water (
of pop with access) Arable land (ha/person)
Economy Real GDP (USD/capita) Annual GNP growth
(/capita) Adult literacy rate ( pop
15) Value of imports ( of GDP)
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Indicator Set Contd
Society Urban pop growth (/yr) Young male pop
( 0-14 of tot pop) Maternal mortality (per
100,000 births) Life expectancy (yrs)
Institutions Public expenditures defense
vs social services ( of GDP) Gross domestic
fixed investment(GDP) Degree of democratization
(1-7) Human freedoms index(1-40)
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Index of Human Insecurity Example
Source Lonergan 2000
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Climatic Change and Economic GlobalizationIn
Indian Agriculture Policy Implications
PI K. OBrien
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Main Objectives

• Assess vulnerability of agriculture to climate
  change and economic changes
• Assess how social and economic policies enhance
  or constrain farmers ability to adapt to climate
  change in the context of globalization (e.g., by
  limiting/increasing choices)
• Suggest measures to reduce vulnerability of
  farmers to global change

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Context

• Agriculture in India
• 27 GDP
• 700 million people
• more than 60 is rainfed cultivation
• Both climate change and economic globalization
  are ongoing processes with uneven impacts.
• Indian agriculture will be confronted by both
  processes simultaneously, leading to changing
  patterns of vulnerability.

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Methodology

• GIS-based vulnerability profile
• Village-level case studies
• Integration of macro- and micro- scale analyses
• Policy survey and recommendations

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Elements of Vulnerability Profiles

• Biophysical vulnerability
• Soil degradation and cover
• Flood prone districts
• Groundwater extraction

Climate sensitivity index (precipitation
variability and dryness)
Vulnerability index
Trade sensitivity index (port distance and
export- import- sensitive crops)

• Socioeconomic vulnerability
• Agricultural workers and laborers
• Gender discrimination
• Literacy
• Infrastructure
• Irrigation availability

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Climate change vulnerability map
Low vulnerability
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Globalization vulnerability map
Data not available
Low vulnerability
High vulnerability
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Village-Level Case Studies
Jhalawar district, Rajasthan

• To assess key factors which enhance or constrain
  farmers ability to adapt
• Pilot study in Jhalawar district, Rajasthan
• semi-arid
• 84 rural population
• 30-40 below poverty line
• 50-70 land under cultivation
• 21 area irrigated

Low vulnerability
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Case Study Results 1
Unequal access to markets, irrigation, credit,
and other non-price inputs
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Case Study Results 2

• Different Strategies for Coping with Climate
  Stress
• Shift towards less water-intensive crops
• Change net cropped area
• Seasonal migration to Gujarat for
  construction-related employment

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Next Steps

• Feedback of case study results into macro-level
  vulnerability profile
• Develop matrix relating globalization, climate
  vulnerability, and policies for agriculture
  sector
• Recommendations for adaptation to reduce
  vulnerability to multiple aspects of global
  change.

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Eastern Ontario, CanadaCase Studies

• Renfrew County 1995
• RMOC 1998
• On-going 2002-05

PI M. Brklacich
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Renfrew RMOC Case Studies

• Whole farm decision making focus
• Embedded climatic change
• Focus group I
• In-depth personal interviews
• Renfrew 30 RMOC 55
• Interview structure
• Farm characteristics
• Previous farm changes
• Perceived climatic change
• Climatic change scenario
• Focus group II

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RMOC CASE STUDYFARM MGT CHANGES 87-97
of Farms Responding
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RMOC CASE STUDYPERCEIVED CLIMATIC CHANGE 77-97
No of Farms
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RMOC CASE STUDY RESPONSE TOPERCEIVED CLIMATIC
CHANGE (77-97)
Livestock farms (n27) Diversified farms (n28)
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RMOC CASE STUDYCONCLUIDNG COMMENTS

• Climate vs other stimuli
• Differential response options
• Differential vulnerability

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NEXT STEPS2002 - 2005
SOCIO-ECONOMIC VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTABILITY OF
AGRICULTURE TO CLIMATE CHANGE A COMPARATIVE
ASSESSMENT OF EASTERN ONTARIO, WEST QUEBEC
UPSATE NEW YORK
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Concluding Comments

• Vulnerability as a social science policy
  linkage
• Vulnerability concepts vs applications
• Science to reduce vulnerability to multiple
  stressors
• Improving science policy relationships

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GECHS Partnerships
Public Sector Partners SSHRC, CIDA, IDRC,
University of Victoria, Carleton University, US
AID, WWC, University of Michigan, Norwegian
Research Council, Norwegian Foreign Ministry,
IHDP, ICSU, UNESCO, NATO, APN, EU ENRICH Private
Sector Partners Procter Gamble
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