FAO

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FAO
CGIAR
WMO
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GECAFS Vision
A food-secure future for those most vulnerable to
environmental stress.
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Fundamental Questions

• How will Global Environmental Change affect the
  vulnerability of food systems in different
  regions?
• How might food systems be adapted to cope with
  GEC so as to enhance food security?
• What would be the consequences of adaptation
  options for environmental and socioeconomic
  conditions?

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Key Terms

• Global Environmental Change
• changes in the biogeophysical environment
• Food Systems
• an interconnected set of processes and activities
• Food Security
• a state or condition underpinned by food systems

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Global Environmental Change Changes in the
biogeophysical environment caused or strongly
influenced by human activities
For example changes in
Land cover soils Atmospheric composition
Climate variability means Water availability
quality
Nitrogen availability cycling Biodiversity Sea
currents salinity Sea level
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Global Environmental Change

• Examples of human activities leading to GEC

Agricultural intensification Freshwater
extraction Fisheries overexploitation Waste
production
Deforestation Fossil fuel consumption
Urbanisation Land reclamation
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Key Terms

• Global Environmental Change
• changes in the biogeophysical environment
• Food Systems
• an interconnected set of processes and activities

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A Food System

• is a set of dynamic interactions between and
  within the human and biogeophysical environments
  which result in the production, processing,
  distribution, preparation and consumption of
  food.
• (definition based on FAO viewpoint)
• should involve interactions designed to provide
  food security.
• is based on three major components each
  comprising three key elements influenced by many
  determinants.

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Components of Food Systems Key Elements
FOOD UTILISATION
FOOD ACCESS

• Affordability
• Allocation
• Preference

• Nutritional Value
• Social Value
• Food Safety

FOOD AVAILABILITY

• Production
• Distribution
• Exchange

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Example Determinants of Food Systems
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Food Systems

• operate through connections between related
  determinants operating in one or more major
  components.
• fail to deliver food security when determinants,
  and/or the links between them, are disrupted by
  GEC or other stresses.
• can be adapted to reduce their vulnerability to
  GEC by
• identifying which related determinants are
  particularly sensitive to GEC
• enhancing effective determinants
• restoring disrupted determinants

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Determinants perspective helps analyse external
stressors on Food Systems
Currency Fluctuations
Economic Recession
Water Pollution
FOOD UTILISATION
FOOD ACCESS
Floods, Droughts
Political Unrest
FOOD AVAILABILITY
HIV-AIDS
War
Climate Change
Change in Trading Agreements
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Food Systems Concepts questions defined

• What parameters describe food systems so as to
  facilitate GECAFS research?
• Within given food systems, which parameters are
  most sensitive to GEC?
• Who are the agents within each major food system,
  what are their roles, and how do they interact?

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Vulnerability of Food Systems to GEC questions
defined

• Which aspects of food systems (availability,
  accessibility, utilisation) are presently most
  vulnerable to environmental stress and which
  stresses are most threatening?
• How might these vulnerabilities change in the
  future and to what extent might GEC either
  heighten or mitigate these vulnerabilities?
• Which strategies, involving both the private and
  public sectors, will most likely reduce food
  system vulnerabilities and thereby increase food
  security?

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Key Terms

• Global Environmental Change
• changes in the biogeophysical environment
• Food Systems
• an interconnected set of processes and activities
• Food Security
• a state or condition underpinned by food systems

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Food Security

• is underpinned by food systems
• exists when all people, at all times, have
  physical and economic access to sufficient, safe,
  and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs
  and food preferences for an active and healthy
  life.
• (definition from the World Food Summit)
• emphasizes access for individuals, households,
  communities to food.
• is researched via food systems approach

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GECAFS Goal
To determine strategies to cope with the impacts
of GEC on food systems and to assess the
environmental and socioeconomic consequences of
adaptive responses aimed at improving food
security.
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Achieving the Goal

• Improve understanding of the interactions between
  food systems and key socioeconomic and
  biogeophysical components of the Earth System.
• Deliver the new science necessary to assist
  policy formulation for improving food security in
  the face of GEC.
• These are to be undertaken simultaneously

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Global Environmental Change and Food Systems
Research
Conditions Scenarios
Vulnerability Impacts
Feedbacks
Decision Support
Current Food Systems
Adapted Food Systems
Adaptation
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Research Approaches

• 1. Conceptual Methodological Research
• Food Systems Concepts
• Vulnerability Concepts
• Scenario Construction
• Decision Support Systems
• 2. Food Systems Research in
• Indo-Gangetic Plain
• Caribbean
• Southern Africa

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Scenario Development questions defined

• What are the plausible future changes in
  environmental and socioeconomic conditions that
  will affect food systems?
• What elements of global scenarios are most
  important for regional-level food system
  analyses?
• What what are the best approaches for linking
  global scenarios to regional scale so as to
  capture regional-level factors relevant to food
  systems?

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Research Relevance Partnerships
Science Agendas
Development Agendas
Policy Makers
Resource Managers
Science
Socio- economic
Natural
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Decision Support Systems questions defined

• What is the best way to determine the information
  needs of advisors to policymakers, resource
  managers and other stakeholders regarding GEC and
  food issues?
• How can DSS best be developed to help analyse the
  socioeconomic and environmental tradeoffs of
  adaptation options?
• What is the best methodological approach to DSS
  development to optimise communication with
  stakeholders?

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Update on GECAFS IGP planning
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IGP General Characteristics

• Western Region (1, 2 3)
• high productivity food surplus
• high investment in infrastructure
• major use of fertilisers and ground-water for
  irrigation
• in-migration of labour

• Eastern Region (4 5)
• low productivity food deficit
• poor infrastructure and low inputs of fertilizer
  and water
• high risk of flooding
• out-migration of labour

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Context

• ? The IGP food system is both threatened by GEC
  and contributes to further GEC forcing.
• In the face of increased climate variability,
  policy requirements are to develop strategies
  that
• sustain/boost agricultural production while
  limiting further environmental degradation
• promote food systems which improve socioeconomic
  conditions for the more vulnerable
• encourage reduced intra-regional labour migration
• ? Research needs to recognise the marked
  socioeconomic and biophysical differences across
  the region.

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• IGP Western Sub-Region Characterisation and
  GECAFS Questions
• high productivity food surplus region
• high investment in infrastructure
• major use of fertilisers and ground-water for
  irrigation
• in-migration of labour

What will be the consequences of changed water
management on rural livelihoods, intra-regional
trade, GHG emissions and water tables?
Conditions Scenarios
How will climate variability affect change in
water demand in IGP food systems?
Adapted Food Systems
Current Food Systems
How can changes in water management (e.g. though
policy instruments and/or agronomic aspects)
reduce vulnerability of rice-wheat productivity
to climate variability?
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• IGP Eastern Sub-Region Characterisation and
  GECAFS Questions
• low productivity food deficit region
• poor infrastructure and low inputs of fertilizer
  and water
• high risk of flooding
• out-migration of labour

Conditions Scenarios
How would diversification effect rural incomes,
labour migration, water quality and regional
biodiversity?
How will climate variability affect vulnerability
of resource-poor farmers to flooding?
Adapted Food Systems
Current Food Systems
What are the market opportunities, social
constraints and technical options for
diversifying crops (e.g. aquaculture) to make
more effective use of flood and groundwater?
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Specific Objectives

• Improved assessment of the spatial and temporal
  vulnerability of food systems across the IGP.
• Refined decision support systems to address
  stakeholder needs relating to potential policy
  and technical interventions.
• Improved water governance from enhanced capacity
  of stakeholders to use different types of
  decision support systems.

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GECAFS IGP Research Products Stage I

• Standard characterisation and classification of
  food systems and their water requirements five
  case study sites.
• Refined and improved Water Poverty Index
  methodology.
• Initial assessments of vulnerability of the food
  systems in relation to water availability for the
  case study sites and the region.
• Will build on regional research on
• food production (RWC)
• diversification (IFAD WB projects)
• policy reform in irrigation sector (IMWI)

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GECAFS IGP Research Products Stage II

• Decision Support Systems for analysing
  socioeconomic and environmental consequences of
  alternative policies and water management
  technologies.
• Analysis of socioeconomic and environmental
  tradeoffs of alternative water policy and
  technical options at national and regional
  levels.

Capacity building of regional stakeholders and
scientists through collaborative analysis in both
stages.
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Participating Institutions
Bangladesh Bangladesh Unnayan Parishad India Ind
ian Council of Agricultural Research Nepal Nepal
Water Conservation Foundation Pakistan Global
Change Impact Studies Centre Pakistan
Agricultural Research Council UK NERC Centre
for Ecology Hydrology USA University of
Illinois CGIAR International Food Policy
Research Institute GECAFS International Project
Coordination