WORKSHOP AGIR

1

• WORKSHOP AGIR
• THE HAGUE
• FEBRUARY 14-15 2003
• RESULTS FOR BELGIUM WP2
• J. MESTDAGH M. LAMBRECHT

Federal Planning Bureau Economic Analysis
Forecasts
2
WP2 - Results Belgium

• TABLE OF CONTENTS
• Demand for (use of ) health care
• Long term care at home / in institutions
• Supply of health care
• Household composition / family situation
• Labour market developments

3
Hospital admissions

• Average number of admissions, 1998, by age and
  gender
• Highest at age 0, then decrease, to increase
  again with age
• Women are less frequently admitted except at age
  15-34

4
Hospital admissions (2)

• Average number of admissions 1991 1998, by
  gender / age
• Increase between 1991-98 for younger and older
  age groups
• Decrease between 1991-98 between age 1 and 45

5
Length of hospital stay

• Average length of hospital stay by age group and
  gender, 1998
• Positive relation with age increases as people
  get older
• Higher for women than for men, especially in
  oldest age group

6
Length of hospital stay (2)

• Average length of hospital stay by age group /
  gender, 1991-98
• ? Decrease between 1991-1998, men/women, all age
  groups

7
Volume of hospital stay

• Volume of hospital stay, 1998, by gender and age

8
Volume of hospital stay (2)

• Volume of hospital stay, by age and gender, 1991
  1998
• ? Slight decrease between 1991 and 1998, all ages

9
Contacts with doctor

• Average number of contacts a year, by age group
  and gender, 2001 (National Health Survey)
• Number of contacts increases with age
• Higher for women than for men (except youngest
  age group)

10
Contacts with doctor (2)

• Contacts with doctor by gender and age, 1997-
  2001 (NHS)
• Again positive relation with age
• For men and women, more contacts in 2001 than in
  1997, EXCEPT women in oldest age group (!!)

11
Long term care at home

• of population using LTC at home by age group,
  1998 2001
• Clear positive relation with age increases as
  people get older
• Little evolution in time, only small increase for
  oldest group

12
Long term care at home (2)

• of population using LTC at home, 2001, by
  category
• Positive relation with age, increases as people
  get older
• lower for higher degrees of dependence (cfr.
  Institutions)

13
Long term care at home (3)

• of population using home-delivered meals, age /
  gender, 2001
• Positive relation with age increases as people
  get older
• No clear difference between men and women
• Note similar data for 1997 (no increase or
  decrease in use)

14
Long term care at home (4)

• of population receiving help in household,
  2001, age/gender
• Positive relation with age increases as people
  get older
• Higher for women than for men, in all age groups

15
LTC in institutions (2)

• of population living in ROB-RVT by age group,
  1996-2001
• Positive relation with age increases as people
  get older
• Increase between 1996-2001, especially at older
  ages

16
LTC in institutions (3)

• of population in ROB-RVT, by age group and
  category, 2001
• Positive relation with age increases as people
  get older
• In older age groups, categories with higher
  dependence become more important

17
Forecasting exercise

• Use of long term care at home 2030-2050
• ? Increase of 124 277.432 people in 2050
  compared to 123.566 in 2001

18
Forecasting exercise (2)

• Use of LTC in institutions, 2030-2050
• ? Increase of 166 317.979 people in 2050
  compared to 119.254 in 2001

19
Supply of formal health care

• Density of care givers (per 1000 inhabitants)
• ? Slight increase in density for all, especially
  nurses

20
Supply of formal health care (2)

• Density of care givers in ROB-RVT (per 1000
  people living in institutions)

21
Supply of formal health care (4)

• Number of hospital beds for LTC per 1000
  inhabitants aged 65
• ? Decrease in density of hospital beds for LTC

22
Supply of formal health care (5)

• Density of acknowledged beds in ROB-RVT per 1000
  inhabitants older than 65
• Overall slight increase in density
• Decrease for ROB, increase for RVT

23
Average household size

• Average household size 1900 1999
• ? Decrease from 4.3 in 1900 to 2.4 in 1999

24
Number of HH members

• Evolution in share of households 1930-2001
• Increase in proportion HH with 1 / 2 members
• Proportion of bigger families decreases

32
31
25
25
21
16
17
14
11
7
25
Composition by marital status

• of men by marital status, 1965 2001
• Increased proportion single and divorced
• Smaller proportion married or widowed

26
Composition by marital status (3)

• Marital status by age group, MEN, 2001

27
Composition by marital status (4)

• Marital status by age group, WOMEN, 2001

28
Composition by relation with others

• Total population, 1961 2001
• Increase in single with or without children
• Decrease in married with or without children
• Similar situation for men and women separately

46
34
30
30
24
17
12
7
29
Elderly people

• of HH having elderly person living with them
• ? Decrease between 1970 and 2001

30
Elderly people (2)

• Living situation of elderly people in 1991

31
Participation rates

• Participation rates, MEN, by age group, 1947-2050
• Reversed U shape curve
• Decrease between 1947 and 2050, especially
  youngest and oldest age groups

32
Participation rates (2)

• Participation rates, WOMEN, by age group,
  1947-2050
• Shape curve has changed from flat to reverse
  U-shape
• Increase between 1947 and 2050 except youngest
  and oldest age groups

33
Weekly working hours

• Average weekly working hours, by gender,
  1983-2000
• Higher for men (38 in 2000) than women (30)
• Decrease for women, rather stable for men

34
Weekly working hours (2)

• of MEN working certain hours a week, 1983-2000

35
Weekly working hours (3)

• of WOMEN working certain hours a week,
  1983-2000
• Increase in lowest groups (part time employment!)
• Decrease in highest age groups

36
Part time employment

• PT employment in of total employment, by gender
• ? Spectacular increase for women (from 5 to 30)

37
Part time employment (2)

• PT employment by gender and age group, 1999
• Much higher for women than for men (all ages)
• For men, higher in lower and higher age groups

38
Reasons for PT employment

• Reasons for PT employment,by gender, 2000, of
  PT workers giving this as reason

39
CONCLUSIONS

• Demand for health care increases with age
• Demand for LTC increases with age
• Decrease in supply of formal health care
• Supply of informal health care?
• - household composition
• - labour market evolutions