EEA scenario 2005 project:

1

• EEA scenario 2005 project
• Climate Change and a European low-carbon energy
  system
• Rob Swart, EEA Topic Centre Air and Climate
  Change
• (core presentation provided by Hans Eerens)

It is not most important to predict the future,
but to be prepared for it Perikles (about 500-429
b. Chr.)
2
SoEOR2005

• SoEOR2005 Air and Climate Change
• Energy and GHG projections
• Regional air quality 2000-2030
• Some conclusions

3

• ETC/ACC partners and others involved
• RIVM IMAGE/TIMER/FAIR/EUROMOVE models, global
  scenarios, climate effects, coordination
• NTUA PRIMES/GEM-E3/PROMETHEUS models, European
  energy system
• IIASA RAINS model, European air quality
• DNMI EMEP model
• AEAT non-CO2 GHGs and non-energy CO2 emissions
• IPTS POLES model, technology variants
• AUTH OFIS, OSPM model, transport urban Air
  Quality
• NILU air Pollution State policies
• CCE air pollution effects on
  ecosystems/critical loads
• EEA project guidance, links with issues other
  than air and climate change

4
SoEOR2005 series of reports

• Climate change and a low-carbon European energy
  system
• European Environmental Outlook
• Main SoEOR2005 report (29 November 2005)
• Air quality and ancillary benefits of climate
  policy (December 2005?)

5
SoEOR2005 Objective ACC

• Assessment of long-term air pollution and climate
  change trends and scenarios
• Europe (2030) in a global long-term context
  (2100)
• Baseline (no climate action after 2012, moderate
  high economic growth, based on CAFE scenario)
• Climate action scenario (550 CO2eq) assuming EU25
  GHG target of -40 by 2030 (from 1990 levels),
  combination of domestic action and use of
  international flexibility mechanisms
• Variants (low economic growth path, high
  renewable/biomass ambitions, increase/decrease
  use of nuclear energy, Maximum Feasible
  Reductions AQ)

6
Baseline and climate action scenarios compared to
IPCC SRES scenarios
Climate action
7
Impact of a 75 year Convergence and Contraction
global burden sharing approach on the GHG
emissions ceiling for various world regions
8
Global development in energy use 1970-2100
9
Global trend in CO2eq emissions
10
Focus on 2030 avoided CO2 emissions
Climate action
11
Change in emissions of air pollutants in the EU
25 region relative to 2000
Ancillary benefits of climate policy
12
Anthropogenic contribution to modeled
grid-average PM2.5 concentrations (annual mean,
µg/m3)
2000
2020 CAFE
2030 Climate Action
2030 Climate Action - MFR
13
Percentage of total ecosystems area receiving
nitrogen deposition above the critical loads
2000
2020 CAFE
2030 Climate Action
2030 Climate Action - MFR
14
Percentage of forest area receiving acid
deposition above the critical loads
2000
2020 CAFE
2030 Climate Action
2030 Climate Action - MFR
15
Loss in statistical life expectancy that can be
attributed to the anthropogenic contributions to
PM2.5 (in months)
2020 CAFE
2000
2030 Climate Action - MFR
2030 Climate Action
16
Grid-average ozone concentrations in ppb.days
expressed as SOMO35
2000
2020 CAFE
2030 Climate Action - MFR
2030 Climate Action
17
Ozone concentration in urban areas SOMO-35
18
SoEOR2005 Climate Change and Air Quality
Conclusions

• Climate action scenario assumes GHG emissions to
  be reduced by 15-30 20 below 1990 levels by
  2020 and 60-80 65 by 2050.
• The analyses suggest that 40 of the reductions
  could be achieved cost-effectively by actions
  outside the EU and that no fundamental transition
  in Europes energy system is needed
• The domestic actions have significant ancillary
  benefits for air quality (yet to be quantified
  this year)
• But to meet AQ objectives, (additional) air
  pollution policies remain necessary

19
SCENARIOS FOR SOEOR2005 CONCLUSIONS (II)
Climate action
20
While such a transition can bring enormous
benefits, it also presents substantial challenges

• Benefits
• Decoupling of CO2 emissions from economic growth
  and reduced European contribution to global
  climate change
• Reduced emissions of air pollutants
• Reduced energy import dependency (-20)
• Employment in industrial and agricultural sectors
  selling biofuels and clean and low energy
  technologies to Europe and the world
• Challenges
• Large changes required in the energy sector
• Difficult choices over controversial technologies
  such as nuclear power and carbon capture and
  storage
• Potential for energy efficiency is well-known,
  but achieving energy reductions in practice will
  require new policy approaches
• Costs may be small in relation to GDP, but are
  nevertheless large in real terms

21
Nederland

• Bij een gelijke koolstof tax zal NL, naar
  verwachting, achterblijven in binnenlandse CO2
  reduktie vergeleken met het Europees gemiddelde
  (2 versus -16 in 2030 tov Kyoto doelstelling)
• In combinatie met een Europees beleid voor
  hernieuwbare brandstoffen (2,5 Eurocent/Kwh in
  2020 oplopend tot 5 Eurocent/Kwh in 2030) kan de
  reduktie oplopen tot -7 voor NL en -23 voor
  EU25.
• Door Europees klimaat beleid kunnen aanzienlijke
  co-benefits voor luchtkwaliteit worden
  gerealiseerd (inclusief financiele voordelen).

22
SoEOR2005 flow chart of models used
Economy
GEM-E3, PROMETHEUS
Transport
Agriculture
PRIMES
COPERT III, TREMOVE, TREND
AEA-T model
RAINS
Emissions
CO2
CH4, N2O,
(Europe)
MERLIN
HFC, PFC,
SF6 (Europe)
EMEP
CO2 Permit
OFIS
Price
OPSM
POLES
TIMER
FAIR
Regional concen-trationSO2, NO, NH3, PM, O3
Urban conc. PM, NO2, O3
Sinks
Street increments
CO2, CH4,
N2O, HFC,
PFC, SF6
IMAGE
Energy Price
WaterGap
AQ impacts
CC impacts
23
Burden sharing regimes, impact for EU-27
1990100
24
Permit prices assumed
Climate action
Climate action
25
Past and projected prices of fossil fuels and
electricity 1970-2050
26
Costs ( of GDP) for various world regions to
achieve climate change targets 2020-2100 under
the climate action scenario.
27
Climate action scenario Netherlands versus EU-15
28
Changes in the fuel mix of EU-25 gross inland
energy consumption compared to the baseline in
2030
29
Emission control costs EU-25 billion Euro/year
Climate change benefit
30
Air pollutant land-abatement cost baseline
compared to Climate action
EU 25 costs in billion /year costs in billion /year costs in billion /year costs in billion /year
Pollutant 2000 2020 2030  2030  2030 
  CLE baseline Climate action Climate action-MFR
SO2 11,4 12,9 16,0 12 15
NOx 2 2,4 3,1 2 7,9
VOC 0,4 1,7 1,8 1,8 4
NH3 2 2,2 2,2 2,1 17,6
PM 10 6,4 6,5 7,4 5,5 17,6
Mobile 7,7 40,2 50,5 47,7 61,4
Total 30 66 81 71 123