FOOD AND FUEL Global Perspectives in Food and Agriculture

1
FOOD AND FUELGlobal Perspectives in Food and
Agriculture
Vienna, 15 March 2007 Alexander
Müller Assistant Director-General Food and
Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
2

• Ein kurzer Rückblick

Die Errungenschaften der modernen Landwirtschaft
waren immens
Quelle FAOSTAT
3

• Ein kurzer Rückblick

... bei einem drastischen Verfall der
Weltmarktpreise
Landwirtschaft (Index)
Nahrung (Index)
Quelle Weltbank, Pink Sheets
4
World population 1750 2050
Further growth, but at drastically declining rates
12.0
0.9
0.8
0.7
9.0
0.6
0.5
Annual increments (billions)
6.0
Total population (billions)
0.4
0.3
3.0
0.2
0.1
0.0
0
1750
1800
1850
1900
1950
2000
2050
Source UN, 2003
5
Population growth is concentrated in developing
countries
6
Urban and Rural Population 1950-2030
Source UN, World Population Assessment 2002
7
1. The main determinants
GDP growth per capita - by region
1986-1998
1998-2015
2015-2030
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
Percent p.a.
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
-1.0
World
EU-15
Developing
Industrial
South Asia
L-America
East Asia
s.S. Africa
NENA
E. Europe
Ex-USSR
-2.0
Source World Bank, GEP 2003
8
Distribution of income today and in 2030
US 13,416 per person
US 986 per person
Increase by more than 300
Increase by more than 200
US 3,408 per person
US 33,361 per person
9
Improvements in sight, but hardly enough to meet
the target of the WFS
1200
1000
800
Unterernährte in Millionen
600
400
200
0
1969/71
1999/01
2015
2030
1990/92
Ostasien
Südasien
s.S-Afrika
Latein Amerika
Naher Osten-Nordafrika
Entwicklungsländer
WFS-Ziel
MDG
Quelle FAO 2003
10
Success and failure in fighting hunger
Source FAO, SOFI, 2002
11
Developing countries will remain big grain
importers
12
Der Nahe Osten und Nordafrika werden auch künftig
die größten Exportchancen bieten
13
Die Fleischimporte der EL werden stark ansteigen
aber auch die Konkurrenz aus Lateinamerika
14
Land in use versus suitable area for crop
production
1200
1066
1031
1000
874
Suitable for rainfed crop
production
800
Arable land use, 1997/99
million ha
600
497
366
400
387
220
265
200
232
228
99
207
203
86
0
Latin America
sub-Saharan
East Asia
South Asia
Near
Industrialized
Transition
and
Africa
East/North
countries
Economies
Caribbean
Africa
15
4. What challenges for the resource base?
Irrigation water withdrawal as a share of
renewable water resources ()
70
Today
in 2030
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
East Asia
South Asia
Latin America
sub-Saharan Africa
Near East/North Africa
All developing countries
16
Wie groß ist der Markt für Biomasse und
Biotreibstoffe?
1.) Potential based on Schrattenholzer and
Fischer, IIASA, 2000 2.) Based on IEA Key energy
statistics, 2006 (TPES), EIA (US) projections for
2030 are 684 EJ, 721 Q (BTU 1 British thermal
unit (Btu)  1,055.05585262 joules (J)) 3.)
Derived from http//www.earth-policy.org/Updates/2
005/Update49.htm, Earth Policy Institute 4.)
Assuming an average yield per hectare for ethanol
of 4200 l (3000 l US maize, 5500 l Brazil cane,
6900 l France sugar beet) and of 3800 l/ha for
biodiesel (average). Most recent yields are about
10 higher for cane and 20 higher for maize. 5.)
850 million ha would be required to meet 2002
road transportation fuels needs (77 EJ) at
current yields (l biofuel/ha), technology, and
crop composition. 6.) Area for developing and
developed countries, not OECD and non OECD 7.)
Assuming an energy content of 34 MJ/l for
biodiesel and 21.1 MJ/l for ethanol 8.) Bruinsma
(ed), World agriculture towards 2015/2030, An
FAO Perspective, 2003, total suitable land for
rainfed agriculture 9.) WEC/ IIASA Scenarios 620
EJ for Scenario C1-C2, 1084 EJ for Scenario
A1-A3, 23.8845 Mtoe 1 EJ 10.) IEA (2003),
Biofuels for Transport, table 6.8. road
transportation in 2030 about 120 EJ total
transport 132 EJ EIA. 11.) 15-60 EJ most
biomass fuels are not traded on world markets,
estimates of consumption are highly uncertain.
12.) Based on regional estimates from
Schrattenholzer and Fischer, IIASA, 2000 13) The
IEA Energy Outlook 2006 assumes a 4 share in
road transportation in 2030 in the reference
case, 7 in the alternative scenario
17
Bioenergy potential per region different
scenarios, year 2050 Exajoules/yr
Source Juergens and Mueller forthcoming 2007,
based on data from WWI 2006)
18
Bioenergy potential per type of biomass
different scenarios, year 2050 Exajoules/yr
Source Juergens and Mueller forthcoming 2007,
based on data from Faaij 2006
19
Wettbewerbsfähigkeit und Mindestpreiseffekt
Daten Nymex and EIA, J. Schmidhuber (2007)
20
Zyklische Effekte überlagern von strukturellen
Umbruch
21
Competitiveness by feedstock
Parity prices PetrolCrude oil Ethanol Various
feedstocks and farming/production systems
120
100
80
Crude, US/bbl
60
40
20
0
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
Petrol, US/l
Gasoline-Crude US
Cane Brazil, top producers
Cane, Brazil, average
Cassava, Thaioil, 2 mio l/d
Maize, US
Cassava, Thailand, OTC joint venture
Palmoil, MPOB project
Mixed feedstock Europe
BTL Synfuel/Sunfuel
Josef Schmidhuber (2005)
22
Wettbewerbsfähig als Heiz- und Brennstoffe?
Quelle Eigene Berechnungen auf Basis von EIA,
IEA, FAO Daten. J. Schmidhuber (2005)
23
Reicht der Zollschutz für Ethanol?
Zölle, Preise und Produktionskosten für Ethanol
0.6
0.5
P-kosten
tEU
tEU-40
tEU
tEU-40
tUS
0.4
tUS
CIF US
/l
0.3
CIF EU
FOB BRA
0.2
MP US Ct/l
MP EU
0.1
0
Mais
Mais
Weizen
Zuckerrohr
Zuckerrüben
EU
BRA
USA
24
US ethanol-some market impacts
25
Cross links Impacts on international commodity
prices
Source _at_2030 simulation results
26
Bioenergy and Land Use Scenarios (2050) IPCC
Third Assessment Report (2001)
27
Competition for Biomass
Source Juergens (FAO) 2006, adapted from
SEI/ESMAP 2005
28
Different Bioenergy Sources with different land
requirements
Source Faaij/FAO 2005
29
Land requirements for replacing 10 of petrolium
based fuels in the respective region/country
(based on average crop area and yield data for
2000-2004 and transport fuel consumption in 2004)
Source based on data from WWI 2006
Notes World 1/2 area relative to land used for
cereals, oilseeds and sugar globally (World 1)
and in five major biofuel producing regions
(World 2).
30
Availability of land for bioenergy plantations in
the EU and the US
Source Schlamadinger et al. 2002, p.63
31
Land available for biomass production for energy
in the EU
Source EEA Report No 7/2006
32
Environmentally-compatible bioenergy potential
from forests in the EU
Source EEA Report No 7/2006
Notes Calculations cover EU-25 Member States
without Cyprus, Greece, Luxembourg and Malta
33

• Determinants of Bioenergy Production
• Population growth and economic development
• Energy prices
• Food consumption per capita calorie intake and
  composition of diet
• Land use patterns (feasibility of
  marginal/degraded lands)
• Efficiency of food production crop yields,
  livestock production
• Forest productivity and sustainable harvest
  levels.
• Competing demands for land nature reserves,
  endangered/protected ecosystems, recreation,
  amenity
• Competing demands for wood and agriculture based
  bio-materials.