Climate change: an European perspective

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Climate change an European perspective

• Andrus Meiner, EEA
• 1st International ASTRA Conference
• ARE WE PREPARED TO COPE WITH CLIMATIC CHANGES?
• CONSEQUENCES OF THE WINTER STORM 2005
• May 18-20, 2006 Klaipeda, Lithuania

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Role of EEA in mitigation and policy adaptation
strategies

• The European Environment Agency is the EU body
  dedicated to providing sound, independent
  information on the environment in support to
  environmental policy makers and for the general
  public
• EEA is publishing reports on GHG emission trends
  and mitigation, but recently on climate change
  impacts (2004, new 2008), vulnerability and
  adaptation (2005)
• In 2006 EEA will report on state of environment
  of the coastal areas, that in limited scope also
  addresses the climate change issues (framing the
  issue)

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Air temperature

• Global temperature 0.7 ?0.2 C over past 100
  years. Projected (19902100) 1.45.8 C
• Top 5 warmest years worldwide 2005, 1998, 2002,
  2003, 2004
• Europe mean annual 0.95 C Summer 0.7C
  Winter 1.1C. Projected 2.06.3C

Data-sources IPCC, WMO, CRU
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European summer temperature 2003

• Very likely that greenhouse gases have doubled
  the risk of summer temperatures as hot as 2003
• Such a heat wave is now four times more likely.
  By 2050 every other summer could be as hot as 2003

Data-sources IPCC, WMO, CRU, Stott et. al. (in
Nature, 2004)
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Projected precipitation changes in 2080

• Precipitation is projected to increase in
  northern Europe but decrease in southern Europe
• More frequent droughts and intense precipitation
  events are likely

Data-source Hadley Centre HadCM3 model, B2
scenario
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Water resources

• Temperature rise and changing precipitation are
  likely to exacerbate the water shortage in
  southern and south-eastern (increasing demand for
  irrigation in agriculture) and eastern Europe
  (increasing demand for households and industry)

Data source Henrichs and Alcamo, 2001. Hadley
Centre HadCM3 model, baseline scenario
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Vulnerable sectors

• Ecosystems and biodiversity
• Agriculture and forestry
• Water resources, flooding, water quality
• Coastal zones, marine resources, fisheries
• Tourism
• Energy (supply and demand)
• Built environment, infrastructure
• Human health
• Land management, regional planning
  (cross-cutting)

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Vulnerable regions in Europe
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Vulnerable regions

• River flooding events 1998-2005
• About 100 (river) floods more than 700
  fatalities, a million people affected and 25
  billion EUR in insured economic losses

• Coastal zones
• Sea level is projected to rise for centuries
  (0.09-0.88 m from 1990 to 2100)
• 9 of all European coastal zones are below 5 m
  elevation (85 for NL, BE), potentially
  vulnerable to sea level rise and related
  inundations
• Coastal zone ecosystems are threatened
• Future increase in storm frequency and intensity
  (uncertainties)

Data-source EEA, 2006, unpublished
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Coastal zones

• Sea level is projected to rise for centuries
  (0.09-0.88 m from 1990 to 2100)
• 9 of all European coastal zones are below 5 m
  elevation (85 for NL, BE), potentially
  vulnerable to sea level rise and related
  inundations
• Coastal zone ecosystems are threatened
• Future increase in storm frequency and intensity
  (uncertainties)

Data-source EEA, 2006 (forthcoming)
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Economic losses from weather related events

• Costs of weather and climate related events
  double each decade
• Since 1990, insured losses are on average 16
  billion annually
• 2004 was costliest 40 billion.
• Annual costs of European flooding could increase
  by 100-120 billion by the 2080s on top of the
  6.5-8 billion paid today

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Balancing mitigation and adaptation Avoiding
the unmanageable, managing the unavoidable,

• EU Council target of limiting global temperature
  increase to 2C above pre-industrial levels
  needs global emission reduction of 15 up to 50
  by 2050 (from 1990 levels)
• Some global and European climate change is
  inevitable due to historical built up of
  greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, and time lags
  in climate and ocean systems
• EU Council recognised the need to prepare for and
  adapt to climate change in both developing and
  developed countries, to complement mitigation
  policies
• Addressing climate change has costs, but also
  brings benefits and opportunities e.g. for
  innovation

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Substantial emission reductions are needed 60
to 80 by 2050 (developed countries)
The EU target of max 2 C temperature increase
requires at least stabilising at 550 ppm CO2
equivalent. Most likely a lower target is
needed, for example of 450 ppm. That would mean a
80 emission reduction by 2050 for developed
countries (from 1990 levels).
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Various EU Member States are not on track to
their Kyoto targets
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Faster growth is needed to achieve the EU goal
for electricity from renewable sources
EU indicative targetof 12 by 2010
Scenario projections
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Key EU (domestic) policies and measures to reduce
GHG emissions

• EU CO2 emissions trading scheme
• Electricity from renewable energy
• Combined heat and power (CHP)
• Energy efficiency (buildings, industry,
  household devices, cars)
• Biofuels in transport
• Recovery of methane from landfills
• Reduction of fluorinated gases
• Remove potentially environmentally harmful
  subsidies
• Research and development
• Raise awareness

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Conclusions on mitigation

• More efforts are required to reach the EU Kyoto
  target
• Substantial further reductions in global GHG
  emissions are needed to achieve long term targets
  and avoid unacceptable impacts
• Strong global action is needed, while the EU has
  to take its responsibility and continue taking a
  leading role
• To succeed everyone has to contribute
  governments, industries, private persons,
  researchers, NGOs, media

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Impact, Adaptation, Vulnerability
exposure
sensitivity
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Adaptation strategies at national level

• National adaptation strategies are currently
  under preparation in Denmark, Finland, France,
  Germany and the UK
• Adaptation measures are included in National
  Climate Change Action Plans of several countries
• The latest Spatial Policy of the Netherlands
  recognises the need for adaptation to climate
  change in spatial planning
• Several countries (e.g. Finland, Hungary,
  Portugal, the Netherlands, Spain, UK) are
  undertaking comprehensive multi-sector national
  assessments of climate change
• In many EEA member countries (e.g., Austria,
  France, Sweden, the Netherlands, Belgium, Italy,
  Switzerland), adaptation measures are taking
  place in the context of natural hazard
  prevention, environment protection, and
  sustainable resource management

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National adaptation strategies and local
variations

• Assessments of regional and sector adaptation
  needs still rare
• More local variations and higher relevance to
  regional and local conditions is needed, because
  this is where practical management is happening

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EU policy developments, adaptation

• Many EU policies, including environmental, do not
  yet address climate change impacts
• Commission communication on post-2012 (Feb. 2005)
  and Environment Councils (2005) mentioned
  adaptation, complementary to mitigation
• Commission Communication (2004) on an EU
  framework on flood risk mapping. Proposed Floods
  Directive in 2005
• ECCP II started in October 2005, including a
  working group on adaptation, 10 sectoral/issue
  meetings April-June 2006, Green Paper in Nov 2006

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Living by the sea
Very different and unequal situations in
socio-economic terms
Expected climate changes pose a real challenge to
the population at sea to adapt, especially to sea
level rise
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Focus Coastal systems

• Coastal zones comprise both sea and land side
• sea/land interface
• catchment-coastal continuum
• natural flows along the coasts
• Regarding marine and coastal areas most of
  climate change research is addressing SLR and SST
  changes and their impacts

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What impacts can climate change have on the
coastal system given the existing anthropogenic
pressures to the coasts?
Often a region or sector is already under
pressure today
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Built up in the distance of the coast
Atlantic
by Regional Sea Basins
Baltic
Black Sea
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Mediterranean
North Sea
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of built up
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0
1
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Distance to the coast (Km)
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Historic land use change and impact on coastal
system

• Wide conversion of forest and grassland to
  agricultural area in 19th and 20th century
• This land use change was accompanied by massive
  soil erosion
• But development of river dams and abstraction of
  water has reduced sediment discharges to the
  coast
• On a global scale, some 25 of the current
  sediment load from land to the coastal zones is
  trapped behind reservoirs.
• In Europe, almost all main rivers are dammed. For
  ex. River Ebro (Northern Spain) delivers 1 of
  solid discharge volume of 1900.
• Sediment deficit at the coast increase
  vulnerability to climate change impacts (SLR,
  storm surges, coastal erosion)

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Result weakened coastal systems

• Diversity of environmental and socio-economic
  conditions at the coast create regional
  differentiation of vulnerability
• The degree of adaptation to climate impacts is
  determined by the adaptive capacity (autonomous
  and planned) of the human-environment system
• The capacity of coastal system for adjustment is
  small if the resilience of coastal system is
  reduced or necessary resources for adaptation are
  lacking

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Information needs at the European level

• Higher spatial resolution and more frequent
  updates that allow target local variations and
  have higher relevance to regional and local
  conditions
• Understanding of causal links - better
  distinction of climate change impacts from other
  anthropogenic impacts (e.g. eutrophication and
  algae blooms, coastal and open sea)
• Uncertainty of time horizon for forecasts
• There is still little evidence so far for direct
  sea level rise
• It is difficult to realize that sea level will
  rise for centuries
• Often indirect CC mechanisms are more pronounced
• Status of ecosystems - data on variability and
  resilience of ecosystems (e.g. water quality,
  coastal habitats)
• More integration with in situ monitoring of
  nature and with social and economic datasets to
  improve risk assessments

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Bridging the gap between science and practice

• More analysis of current land use and sediment
  management practices at our coasts (non-climatic
  issues)
• Combine the results with predicted impacts of
  climate change
• Improved interface from climate change research
  to coastal management
• More relevant adaptation strategies
• Broader vision of integrated coastal management
  in to coastal engineering
• Reduced vulnerability to climate change impacts?

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What more is needed?

• Policy change living with natural processes
• Legislation is only beginning to recognize
  ecosystem approach and full threats of coastal
  squeeze
• Spatial planning for coasts is only emerging
  (river basin, coastal and flood risk management
  plans)
• Cross-sectoral integration on coasts to be
  realized (potential for SEA directive
  implementation)
• Coastal protection still dominated by hard
  solutions or beach nourishment
• Multi-scale adaptation EU, national and
  local/regional level
• Reflect diversity of EU coasts and be appropriate
  to decision making of the coastal zone in
  question

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Current adaptation measures reactive or
proactive?

• Regional and local governmental organizations,
  NGOs and the private sector have started to adopt
  new policies, regulations and standards
  accounting for climate change (role of insurance
  sector)
• Measures mainly in areas with a long tradition of
  dealing with climate extremes such as flood
  defence
• Many adaptation actions have been initiated
  because of the substantial losses from extreme
  weather events in recent years
• Policies and measures designed to address
  long-term climate change impacts have not been
  developed to the same extent

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Challenges for integration of adaptation into
other policies and measures

• Scientific uncertainty (low level of confidence
  in climate change scenarios of extreme events at
  high spatial resolution)
• Policy action at regional/local level (need for
  stakeholder involvement gaps in knowledge on
  potential adaptation policies and measures lack
  of resources)
• Costs of adaptation and benefits assessments
  (gaps in knowledge how to identify win-win or
  no-regret options, justified under many
  plausible scenarios)
• Coordination between sectors (how to enhance
  efficiency and effectiveness of measures with
  many organisations involved)

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Possible adaptation framework

• Define the overall (European/national) policy
  objectives
• Determine priority sectors for adaptation action
• Propose decision making criteria
• Assess priority risks or opportunities (in each
  sector)
• Identify potential adaptation options
• Appraise and propose adaptation options (high
  priority, win-win and no-regret)
• Define adaptation targets and indicators
• Integrate and/or link to policy framework at the
  EU, national and sectoral level
• Implement policies/measures
• Monitor, review and revise if needed

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Conclusions

• Need to develop policy framework at European,
  national and regional/local levels
• Integrate (mainstream) adaptation into other
  policies and measures
• Enhance research (EU and national) on
  vulnerability assessments (including scenarios),
  good practices and costs and benefits, with
  stakeholder involvement
• Improve management practices for non-climatic
  reasons, as potential to reduce vulnerability to
  climate change impacts
• Exchange experiences amongst relevant
  stakeholders (public and private
  EU/national/regional/local)
• Communicate risks clearly to those affected and
  the actions they can take

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Thank you for attention,More information on EEA
web page http//eea.europa.eu The
European Environment Agency is the EU body
dedicated to providing sound, independent
information on the environment