GHG and Transport

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THE CHALLENGE OF SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORT FUELS,
POWER TRAINS, AND MORE Lee Schipper, Ph. D,
Director of Research, EMBARQ World Resources
Institute Washington DC www.embarq.wri.org
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POWER TRAINS AND FUELSThe Challenges How do we
Get Started?

• Power Trains
• Conventional 20 savings
• Hybrids - 30 40 savings in city traffic
• Fuel cells and electrics. Maybe, but costs,
  resources, GHG implications
• Fuel Choices
• Diesel -- only if fuel is clean and prices at
  parity with gasoline
• CNG expensive and short range
• Bio-fuels Maybe but expensive, closet carbon
• New Vision What is Needed?
• Better consensus on the real goals, risks more
  than technology
• Manufacturer/Government/Consumer agreement
• Something to end the upward march of
  power/weight/engine size

WHATEVER IS BEST, TECHNOLOGY MUST BE PUSHED BY
ECONOMICS
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ANALYTICAL STARTING POINTImpact Decomposition
Technology vs Behavior
Focus on Technology for I and F, butdo not lose
sight of A and S
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• Created at WRI by Shell Foundation
• Mission to work closely with empowered forces in
  urban areas to solve transport/environment
  problems
• Working in Mexico City and Shanghai
• Now in Xian,Pune, and Hanoi
• Visit us at http//www.embarq.wri.org/en/index.htm

By 2015 there will be 23 mega-cities, and nearly
300 cities in the developing world are already 1
million strong
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Real Automobile Fuel Intensity All
Fuels Stagnant in the US heading down in Europe
.
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Trends in New Car Fuel Intensity
V.A.Impacts
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Average Power of New Cars Sold (kW)
International Energy Agency
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Fuel Prices Matter Price of Automobile Fuel and
Per Capita Carbon Emissions from Cars 1970-1995
Present price in 1990 USD US 38
cents/liter Europe 80-90 UScents/ l)
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Von Randow Pragmatic approach, no money to burn

• Principals
• First, we have to continue reducing pollution.
• Second, we have to make more efficient use of
  energy resources. Incremental in the next 20
  years, while hybrids rise
• Third, we have to tap new sources of energy for
  tomorrows mobility.H2 from ?
• Strategy 11 november
• Consumption of fossil fuels will be reduced,
  thereby reducing our dependency on oil (security
  of supply).
• Emissions of greenhouse gases from transport are
  to be reduced (action to tackle climate change).
• Fuels likely to be available in high quantities
  and powertrains with the potential to enhance
  energy efficiency will be identified
  (innovation).
• Conclusions
• Hard Look at the realism
• H2 the long term option
• Like the DG-Tren fusion

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Costes -- Peugeot

• Principals
• Main challenge CO2
• Demand for a continuous improvement of air
  quality
• Clean technology has an effect on environment
  when diffused in very large quantities
• Long term industrial investment.
• Strategy 11 november
• Euro V decisions have to take into account CO2
  and market answers WILL THAT DISCOURAGE DIESEL?
  CNG, BIO FUELS MORE EXPENSIVE? TAXES
• Need for long term visibility and stability of
  political orientations -
• Need for a single market in Europe
• Need for global harmonization of regulations
• Conclusions Keep it Simple, Stupid
• There is no perfect technologies COST VS RETURN
• Conventionnal technologies will improve and have
  a future FAST ENOUGH TO OFFSET GREATER POWER?
• Diesel is a chance for Europe challenges and
  competitivity IF PRICED AT PARITY

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Tjan -- EPIA

• Security of supply
• Stuck on oil
• GTL, BTL
• GHG
• Few low GHG fuels.. (maybe none)
• Go for improving cars, because transport remains
  in the center of the problem
• Dealing with what customer wants and what is
  produced
• With sulphur gone, pollution is minimal
• Conclusions
• Address security and GHg - start up subsidy is
  ok, but not for ever
• Market acceptance/timing
• Role of Government
• Technology neutral
• Functioning market
• Support innovation and creativity education,
  bus environment

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SUMMARY Power Trains and Fuels-Kick out the
Jambs

• Options are there SoS and GHG - Lots of
  options
• Stuck on oil , but incremental improvements
  significant on gasoline and diesel
• GTL, BTL etc, Longer term H2 or gas?
• Dont ignore mobility patterns.. Lifestyles
• Low suphure, clean fuels will solve local air
  problems
• Consumer behavior should be in the equation
  travel, etc
• Kick Starting fiscal or regulatory or?
• Harmonization of specs, standards
• No strong pronouncements on taxes or regulations
• Dealing with what customer wants and what is
  produced perhaps the big problem
• Leadership do people really believe we have a
  problem
• Political leaders, wo/man in the street
• Stable Govt directions -- big investments
• Private sector risks and uncertainties of
  uncertain regulatory and consumer decisions
• Role of Government Integrated approach
• Technology neutral
• Functioning market
• Support innovation and creativity education,
  bus environment