User needs from a GHG inventory perspective

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User needs from a GHG inventory
perspective UNECE Task Force on Climate Change
Statistics 19-20 November 2012, Geneva Ricardo
Fernandez European Environment Agency
Background paper User needs of climate change
statistics from a greenhouse gas inventory
perspective Gaining support for improved NSO
involvement
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Outline of the presentation

• Objective and typology of user-needs compilers,
  reviewers and analysts
• Quality principles in GHG inventories what does
  quality mean?
• National inventory systems how to ensure
  quality
• International review under UNFCCC/KP who
  rubber-stamps quality
• Improving/enhancing the role of NSOs in GHG
  inventories examples for the energy sector
• Summary/conclusions

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I. Objective and typology of user-needs

• Objective To provide a short overview of user
  needs from a GHG inventory perspective and give
  you some examples of the role of NSOs to meeting
  those needs
• Typology of user needs
• GHG inventory compilers provision/sharing of
  quality AD to estimate EM
• GHG inventory reviewers flagging quality
  improvements in ARRs quality of CO2 EM in the
  energy sector quality of AD
• GHG/climate mitigation analysts complexity
  (ERTs) vs. simplicity policy makers,
  journalists, general public

NSOs already connected to the inventory world - UNECE survey in 2011 shows
36 NSOs are involved in GHG inventories (gt75)
19 NSOs are involved in providing source data
11 NSOs participate in GHG calculations
6 NSOs are responsible for reporting GHG inventories
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II. What does quality mean?

• Quality principles are defined in the UNFCCC
  Reporting Guidelines (TACCC) http//unfccc.int/res
  ource/docs/cop8/08.pdf
• Transparency Clear assumptions and methodologies
• Accuracy unbiased estimates reflecting true
  emissions (no systematic error) reduce
  uncertainty (improve precision)
• Consistency Over all its elements and over time
  (time series)
• Comparability Spatial, through agreed IPCC
  methodologies
• Completeness All countries all sectors all
  gases all years
• Because the EU is the sum of its MS, the quality
  of EU GHG estimates reflects the quality of MS
  GHG estimates!

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III. How to ensure quality, at EU level?

• Legal basis EU GHG Monitoring Mechanism
  Decision - EU is Party to UNFCCC/KP and
  coordinates with 27 MS
• Institutional arrangements EU National System -
  internal set-up to deliver high quality GHG
  inventories
• WG1 Climate Change Committee - forum to discuss
  compilation and review activities quality
  improvements all 27 MS EU National System
• The EUs QA/QC Programme Plan - Who does what,
  when and how in the EUs National System?

Institutions in the EUs National System Roles/responsibilities (more detail in QA/QC Plan)
European Environment Agency EEA, Copenhagen Inventory Agency coordination role in compilation implementation of QA/QC Programme
European Topic Centre on Air Pollution Climate Change Mitigation Vienna Technical compilation QA/QC Plan EEAs right hand
DG CLIMA, European Commission Brussels Official submission to UNFCCC on behalf of the EU National System, Registry information
DG Joint Research Centre, European Commission Ispra Agriculture and LULUCF
DG Eurostat, European Commission Luxembourg IPCC reference approach CO2 emissions fossil fuel combustion quality of energy statistics
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IV. Who rubber-stamps quality in emission
inventories?

• International reviews under UNFCCC/KP the
  quality of a GHG inventory is reviewed annually
  by independent group of experts from Annex I and
  non-Annex I Parties to UNFCCC very thorough
  reviews!
• Reviews show that quality depends on well
  functioning national systems
• Planning e.g. allocate responsibilities and
  ensure sufficient capacity establish a QA/QC
  Plan and define quality objectives
• Preparation e.g. estimate GHG
  emissions/removals using appropriate methods
  (IPCC) collect sufficient activity data and EFs
• Management e.g. documentation/archiving
  responding to questions during UNFCCC reviews
• More info on National Systems Decision
  19/CMP.1, Guidelines for national systems under
  Article 5, para 1 of the Kyoto Protocol
• GHG Inventory cannot be perfect but needs to
  reflect continuous quality improvements!

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V.i Examples of user needs during compilation in
the energy sector AD to estimate emissions

• The quality of the energy balances is fundamental
  gt Energy sector 80 of total GHG emissions
• Examples of current/potential involvement by NSOs
  to improve AD quality
• Eurostats role in the EUs national system
• IPCC Reference Approach top down, fuel based
• Sectorial Approach bottom up, using harmonised
  energy balances reported under the EU Energy
  statistics Regulation
• Improvements in the quality of energy statistics
• Consistency of energy balances (ESR) and
  inventory data (CRF)
• Key category analysis most important
  emission/sink sources in a country easy to
  know where to focus quality improvements
• Data sharing among all institutions concerned is
  essential! inventory compilers need access to all
  relevant data for a good quality inventory

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Consistency of energy balances and AD in GHG
inventories (crucial!)
EU Energy Statistics Regulation ESR
consistency energy balance activity data in
CRFs Art. 6.2 Every reasonable effort shall be
undertaken to ensure coherence between energy
data declared in accordance with Annex B and data
declared in accordance with Commission Decision
2005/166/EC of 10 February 2005 laying down the
rules for implementing Decision No 280/2004/EC of
the European Parliament and of the Council
concerning a mechanism for monitoring Community
greenhouse gas emissions and for implementing the
Kyoto Protocol.
EU-15
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Tier 1 Key category analysis prioritising
inventory improvements gt focus where it makes a
difference! tier 2 includes uncertainty

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Potential role for NSOs during compilation,
linked to QA/QC verification of emission
estimates

• Energy sector, IPCC Reference Approach for CO2
  emissions from fossil fuel combustion (mandatory
  in UNFCCC Reporting)
• What about other sectors? Industrial processes,
  Waste, Agriculture and LULUCF
• Can there be a role for NSOs? e.g. to provide a
  third party verification of activity data /
  emissions provided by MS on a sectorial bases
  Eurostat could be instrumental for the EUs
  QA/QC perspective

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V.ii Examples of user needs during review to
ensure continuous quality improvements

• Annual Review Reports ARRs are the best source
  of information to motivate improvements in data
  quality
• http//unfccc.int/national_reports/annex_i_ghg_inv
  entories/inventory_review_reports/items/6048.php
• GHG inventory agency coordinates input by
  institutions in the national system
• If NSO is not in the national system gt be
  proactive if issue/s flagged in ARRs fall under
  NSO competence
• 2 examples of relevant recommendations to
  improving the quality of AD ARRs 2011 cycle
• Consistency between energy balances and GHG
  inventory activity data
• Consistency between energy balances and data
  reported under the EU Emissions Trading System
  (ETS)

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Link energy balances and CRF activity data

In some countries, the ERTs can facilitate
communication and/or sharing of information
between different institutions GHG inventory
compilers need to be able do their job should
have access to all relevant data for the
estimation of emissions
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Link energy balances and EU ETS activity data

ETS activity data is not always available to
energy balance inventory compilers Improving
the consistency between ETS, energy balances and
CRF activity data is essential e.g. EU-target
setting assumes consistency of ETS and inventory
data
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V.iii Examples of user needs for a wider audience

• GHG inventories are really complex inventory
  compilers and reviewers understand them!
• GHG inventories cannot answer everything about
  climate change, and arent designed for policy
  makers, journalists or the general public.
• Some examples of questions by journalists are
• What about the role of renewables, and nuclear?
• Are biomass emissions carbon neutral?
• What about carbon intensity and energy
  efficiency?
• Is the economic recession reducing emissions?
• Is the EU ETS reducing emissions?
• Are warmer winters leading to lower heating
  demand and emissions?
• What about embedded carbon / exported emissions?
• This was 2 years ago (!), what about last year or
  this year?
• The inventory alone cannot answer these
  questions! additional data usually collected by
  NSOs

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Why did emissions decline despite of increased
electricity/heat generation?

• Overall fuel use somewhat stable but emissions
  fell!
• Less coal (101 tCO2/TJ) liquid (77 tCO2/TJ).
  More gas (56 tCO2/TJ) biomass (CO2 Memo)
• Role of non carbon fuels (?) gt Non-combustible
  fuels arent reported in GHG inventories

Source EEA
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Total economy Eurostats energy balance
nuclear and renewables also played a significant
role and not just fossil fuelsinventory
Source by EEA based on Eurostats energy balances
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What is the share of household emissions, or
transport?
on an UNFCCC-reporting basis,
households/services look too good
on an end-user basis not UNFCCC!, the picture
changes completely this would not be possible
without Eurostats energy statistics
Source EEA method. GHG emissions, EEA, Energy
balances, Eurostat
Source EEA
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GDP/recession, other factors? Difficult to
explain reality without these factors
Source by EEA, based on Eurostats energy
balances, national economic accounts and
population statistics.
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GHG inventories run on t-2 (not timely!)
competition with socio-economic data, ETS .
running on t-1 gt EEA developed proxy emission
estimates in t-1
No apparent link (on average in the EU)
Significantly warmer winter-months in 2011
(December 2010 very cold!)
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5. Summary/conclusions own reflections

• The EU National System would not function
  properly without the work of Eurostat and
  other NSOs in MS
• Eurostats current role in the EU NS is essential
  during compilation review
• IPCC Reference Approach, Sectorial Approach,
  Energy Statistics Regulation quality
  consistency between energy balances and CRF
  activity data
• Eurostats future role in the EU NS can (should)
  also increase
• Capacity building to EU MS to improve the quality
  of the energy balances
• Helping improving the consistency of ETS AD and
  the energy balances e.g. legally encouraging
  data sharing between agencies
• Provision of timely socio-economic data for trend
  analysis GDP, population, heating degree days,
  cooling degree days
• Verification of MS AD in all sectors reported in
  GHG inventories i.e. third Party verification
  similar to the IPCC Reference Approach for
  energy
• Formalising institutional relations (NS) can
  provide certainty about the roles and
  responsibilities visibility NSOs in NS may
  also increase public trust
• The key objective remains good quality GHG
  inventories!

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Thank you for your attention! ricardo.fernandez_at_ee
a.europa.eu