5 What can be done to curb GHG emissions

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5 - What can be done to curb GHG emissions ?
Proposal employ several strategies, each (1
wedge) capable of reducing, in 50 years, 1
billion tonnes of Carbon (0,5 billion, on
average, for the next 50 years)
5C (gt800 ppm CO2)
3C (gt525 ppm CO2)
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5 - What are some possible strategies ?
A - Efficiency and Conservation

• Improve car fuel economy (average 12,5 km/liter
  -gt 25 km/liter) for estimated 2 billion cars
• Reduce average mileage (16.000 km/year -gt 8.000
  km/year)
• Increase efficiency in heating, cooling, lighting
  and appliances by 25
• Increase coal-fired power plant efficiency to 60
  from 40

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5 - Energy Efficiency (?)
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5 - What are some possible strategies ?
B Carbon Capture and Storage Low carbon Fuels

• Introduce CCS systems to capture CO2 and store it
  underground at 800 large (1 GW) coal-fired plants
  or 1.600 NG-fired plants
• Use CCS in Coal-to-Liquids plants, producing 30
  million barrels/day
• Replace 1.400 large coal-fired plants with NG
  fired-plants
• Displace coal by increasing production of nuclear
  power to three times todays capacity

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5 - Carbon Capture Storage
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5 - What are some possible strategies ?
C Renewables and Biostorage

• Increase wind-generated power to 25 times current
  capacity (more like 13 times in 2007)
• Increase solar power to 700 times current
  capacity (more like 13 times in 2007)
• Increase wind power to 50 times current capacity
  to make hydrogen for fuel-cell cars (more like 26
  times in 2007)
• Stop all deforestation
• Expand conservation tillage to all cropland
  (normal plowing releases carbon by speeding
  decomposition of organic matter)

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5 - World Electricity Demand in 2006 and
Projection for 2020
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5 - Possible Scenario for Renewable Energy in 2020
1 Petajoule 1x 10e15 Joules
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5 - Incoming Solar Energy to Earths Surface
Solar Constant 1,367 kW/m2 Projected Earth Area
1,269 x 10e14 m2 Solar Energy in 1 year 1,5
x 10e18 kWh 4,8 x 10e24 J 4800000000 Peta
Joules
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5 - What are some possible strategies ?
D Biofuels

• Increase ethanol biofuel production to 50 times
  current capacity - 250 million hectares, about
  one-sixth of the worlds cropland, would be
  needed!
• Increase ethanol and biodiesel to displace 20 of
  worlds current consumption of gasoline and
  diesel. That would require 36 BRAZILs in terms
  of current biofuel-based energy.

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5 - Carbon Cycle and Biofuels
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5 - Food vs. Fuel Debate
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5 - Energy contained in Biomass of Selected Crops
(GJ/ha/ano)
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5 - How much will it cost to stabilize GHG
concentrations within safe limits (500 ppm)?
Quotes from The Stern Review The Economics of
Climate Change, 2006

• This Review has assessed a wide range of
  evidence on the impacts of climate change and on
  the economic costs, and has used a number of
  different techniques to assess costs and risks.
  From all of these perspectives, the evidence
  gathered by the Review leads to a simple
  conclusion the benefits of strong and early
  action far outweigh the economic costs of not
  acting.
• Using the results from formal economic models,
  the Review estimates that if we dont act, the
  overall costs and risks of climate change will be
  equivalent to losing at least 5 of global GDP
  each year, now and forever. If a wider range of
  risks and impacts is taken into account, the
  estimates of damage could rise to 20 of GDP or
  more.

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5 - How much will it cost to stabilize CO2
concentrations within safe limits (cont.)?

• In contrast, the costs of action reducing
  greenhouse gas emissions to avoid the worst
  impacts of climate change can be limited to
  around 1 of global GDP each year.
• Climate change is the greatest market failure
  the world has ever seen, and it interacts with
  other market imperfections. Three elements of
  policy are required for an effective global
  response. The first is the pricing of carbon,
  implemented through tax, trading or regulation.
  The second is policy to support innovation and
  the deployment of low-carbon technologies. And
  the third is action to remove barriers to energy
  efficiency, and to inform, educate and persuade
  individuals about what they can do to respond to
  climate change.

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5 - How much will it cost to stabilize CO2
concentrations within safe limits (cont.)?

• If we take no action to control emissions, each
  tonne of CO2 that we emit now is causing damage
  worth at least 85 but these costs are not
  included when investors and consumers make
  decisions about how to spend their money. 
  Emerging schemes that allow people to trade
  reductions in CO2 have demonstrated that there
  are many opportunities to cut emissions for less
  than 25 a tonne.   In other words, reducing
  emissions will make us better off. According to
  one measure, the benefits over time of actions to
  shift the world onto a low-carbon path could be
  in the order of 2.5 trillion each year.

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6 - GHG Emissions Patterns Brazil vs. World
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6 - Whats the cause for such GHG emissions
profile ?
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6 - Main Brazilian Biomes
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6 CO2 Net Emissions due to land-use change in
Brazil, by biome (1988-1994)
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6 - Deforestation in the Amazon

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6 - Annual Deforestation Rates in the Amazon
Forest
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6 - Amazonian Teleconnections
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6 - World Soybean Production is Soaring. Why?
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6 - Meat Consumption is Increasing!
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6 One Possible Solution for Deforestation
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6 - Brazils Contribution to Avoid Climate
Change (2007)

• Report developed by the following ministries
• Ministry of Foreign Relations
• Ministry of Science and Techology
• Ministry of the Environment
• Ministry of Mines and Energy
• Ministry of Development, Industry and Foreign
  Trade

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6 - Brazil has one of the cleanest energy
matrices in the World
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6 Brazils Electricity Matrix

Electricity Internal Production
Avoided CO2 Emissions
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6 Avoided CO2 Emissions from Ethanol in road
transportation
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6 - Projected Biofuels Demand for Land
Transportation

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6 - Estimated Cultivated Area Necessary to
Produce Biofuels According to IEA Scenarios
(2010/2020)
Biofuels substituting 10 of gasoline
and diesel demand in 2020 will require 43 of
all cultivated area in the USA and 38 in The
EU.

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6 - Why Brazil could be the main player In the
Biofuels Arena
Área Agricultável
em milhões de ha
O mundo tem ainda 2,4 bilhões de hectares
disponíveis para a agricultura (62 do total de
terras agricultáveis)

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6 - Brazil could Produce more Food and Fuel
without further Deforestation
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6 Brazil is also a leader in Minimum Tillage
Practices
Soils hold more carbon than atmosphere and
vegetation
Minimum tillage prevents carbon from soil to move
to atmosphere
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6 Brazil is very Competitive in Reforestation
Biomass Yields for Cellulose and Charcoal
production
Average Comparative Yield (m3/ha/yr)
More than 50 of charcoal used for pig-iron
production comes from planted forests
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6 Brazilian Programs to Help Mitigate Climate
Change

• Renewable Energy PROINFA, Luz para Todos
• Energy Efficiency PROCEL, CONPET
• Biofuels PNPB, PROCONVE, Flex-Fuel engines
• Deforestation of the Amazon INPE -gt PRODES,
  DETER
• CDM Projects 3rd in the World (traded tC eq)

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Clean Development Mechanism Projects in Brazil
(2007)
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6 - Other G85 Countries - Climate Change Related
Issues

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7 - What comes after Kyoto?

• UNFCCC Roadmap - RED / REDD
• Focus on Adaptation. Geo-engineering?
• Cap and Trade? Charging for GHG emissions
• Contraction and Convergence

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7 - COP-13 Roadmap and RED Reduced Emissions
from Deforestation

• Avoided Deforestation (AD) refers to the
  prevention or reduction in forest loss in order
  to reduce global emissions of GHGs.
• This has become a key issue being discussed in
  debates related to Climate Changes policy.
• Final COP-13 statement on RED by UNFCCC invites
  further discussion on the complexities associated
  with carbon reduction accounting
• RED Proponents want incentives for forest
  conservation to be used as a market tool in the
  period after Kyoto (after 2012)
• Regional and Global funding bodiese are
  spreading. The World Bank aims to become the
  main international agency to head RED global
  initiatives
• The central idea is for the (rich) countries
  from the North to pay the countries in the South
  to reduce its deforestation within their borders.
• One proposal (Brazil) is for the rich countries
  to provide voluntary funds to accomplish this
  goal
• Another (Papua Costa Rica) involves the sale of
  stored carbon inside the forests from the
  countries from the Sul, allowing the industries
  from the North to keep polluting as usual, within
  a carbon credit trading system

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7 - Global Solutions ?

• Use Humanitys entire arsenal of strategies to
  reduce GHG emissions in order to stabilize their
  atmospheric concentrations and, consequently,
  surface temperature
• ADAPT Map the most vulnerable areas to be
  affected by global warming-related disturbances.
  IPCC is already shifting its focus from physical
  science research to adaptation needs
• Geo-Engineering not yet being widely considered
  by scientists. Includes ocean fertilization and
  sulfur dioxide release in the atmosphere to block
  incoming energy from the sun

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7 Carbon Offsetting as a Local Solution. Is it
worth planting a tree to compensate for a tank
full of gas ?

• 1 tank full with Gasoline C (52 litres) 40
  litres Gasoline A 12 litres Anhydrous Alcohol
• 40 litres Gasoline gt 30 kg. Gasoline
• 30 kilos Gasoline 25 kilos Carbon 5 kilos
  Hidrogen
• 1 tree to capture 25 kilos of carbon needs
  (roughly) weigh 100 kilos
• How long till a tree weighs 100 kilos?
• How long will that tree be left standing?

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7 - Charging for GHG Emissions

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7 - Contraction and Convergence
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Final Comments

• "Un día, un científico del Panel
  Intergubernamental del Cambio Climático (formado
  por más de 2.000 expertos) me contó una historia
  que me parece que viene muy al caso. Me dijo que
  cuando el panel empezó a reunirse, hace ya unos
  20 años, había en el grupo un anciano científico
  japonés que en una de las reuniones intervino y
  dijo 'los científicos hemos constatado que existe
  un problema de emisiones, pero no lo podemos
  resolver. Puesto que el CO2 lo producen las
  máquinas, tendremos que llamar a los ingenieros.
  Estos, a su vez, dirán que existe la tecnología
  necesaria para solucionar el problema, pero que
  cuesta dinero, así que se llamará a los
  economistas. Los economistas harán sus cálculos y
  dirán que, para conseguirlo, habrá que cambiar
  nuestro actual modelo social basado en el
  transporte, el derroche energético... así que se
  llamará a los sociólogos. Éstos, a su vez, dirán
  que es un problema de escala de valores que ellos
  no pueden resolver, así que se acudirá a los
  filósofos para que nos digan qué valores
  deberíamos poner nuestro empeño e interés".

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Thank You!