The National Popular Vote for Presidential Elections

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The National Popular Votefor Presidential
Elections

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The National Popular Vote PlanWhy Now?

• Voters in two-thirds of states are ignored
• Decreases turnout in these spectator states
• 70 of public wants a popular vote

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The Current System Weakens Participation of Key
Constituencies

• Elections come down to fewer and fewer
  battlegrounds every election
• National trend of hardening partisanship
• Hurts participation of people of color and youth

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Fewer and Fewer Battlegrounds

• 1976 24 states in play (345 electoral votes)
• 2004 13 states in play (159 electoral votes)

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Partisanship is Hardening

• States are becoming less and less competitive
  and more and more fixed in their status
• Blue states becoming bluer
• Red states becoming redder

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Sharp Decline in BattlegroundsBoth Big and
Small States Hurt

• 1976 10 of 11 biggest states contested2004
  only 4 of 11 biggest states contested
• Ignored states include NY, CA, MA, NJ, IL, TX
• 1976 5 of 13 smallest states contested2004
  only 1 of 13 biggest states contested
• 6 red states, 6 blue states, only one swing New
  Hampshire

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Impact of the Current System in 2004 Advertising
and Campaign Visits

• Florida had more ads than 45 states and DC
  combined.
• 18 states had 0 candidate visits and TV ads

Advertisingby state
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Racial Disparities in Battlegrounds

• Whites 30 live in battlegrounds, 70 in safe
  states
• Blacks 21 live in battlegrounds, 79 in safe
  states
• Latinos 17 live in battlegrounds, 83 in safe
  states

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Voter Turnout Suffers

• Large and persistent gap in participation
• Biggest gap with youth turnout 18 in 2004

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Warping National Debate

• Al Gore and 2000 Climate change doesnt play in
  the rust belt -- key consultants
• Hard line on Cuba Cuban-Americans in Florida
• High-tech industries in spectator states are
  ignored relative to rust belt issues

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The Case for Participation

• With national popular vote, campaigns would no
  longer ignore 2/3 of our states
• Every vote and effort to urge others to vote is
  equally meaningful everywhere
• Encourages a culture of higher voter turnout

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Why Proposed Congressional District Systems
Fail

• Some suggest dividing states electoral votes by
  congressional district
• Applied nationally, district system makes it more
  likely for the popular vote winner to lose
• In 2000 George Bush wins by 10 of electors even
  while losing national vote
• Jimmy Carter ties or maybe loses in 1976
• John Kennedy loses in 1960
• 80 to 90 of districts are not competitive

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The Path to VictoryThe National Popular Vote
Compact

• Constitutional basis for the proposal
• How the plan works
• Historical basis for states taking leadership
• Campaign successes after just 20 months
• Endorsements growing

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Constitutional Basis for the Plan
US Constitution Article II, Section 1, Clause
2 Each State shall appoint, in such Manner as
the Legislature thereof may direct, a Number of
Electors.
US Supreme Court The appointment, and mode of
appointment, of electors belong exclusively to
the states.
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How the Plan Works

• States act on their responsibility to structure
  system
• They join interstate compact to award their
  electors to the candidate winning most votes in
  all 50 states DC
• Compacts are legally binding contracts with the
  full force of the Constitution behind them
• Goes into effect if and only if participating
  states represent a majority (270 or more)
  electoral votes
• A blackout period for withdrawal secures plan
  from July of election year to inauguration of
  president

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Bottom Line for State Lawmakers

• The National Popular Vote plan presents a
  simple policy choice
• Keep the current system exactly as it is
• or
• Guarantee election of the national popular vote
  winner in 50 states

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Historical Basis for State Action

• Founders generation had no fixed system
  governing state rules on electors
• Example of 1796 election Adams vs. Jefferson
• 8 States Electors elected entirely by state
  legislature
• 5 States Electors elected from districts
• 2 States Elected elected statewide
• 1 State Electors elected indirectly with state
  legislature
• Only by 1830s is unit rule dominant
• It maximized boost to majority party in a state
• It increased states clout by swinging more
  electors

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Campaign Successes for National Popular Vote in
Only 20 months

• Maryland Enacted the NPV law in April 2007
• Illinois Both houses passed in 2007. May go to
  governor for signature in January 2008
• New Jersey Passed assembly in 2007 and going to
  senate in January 2008
• NC, AR, CO, HI, CA Has passed one or two
  chambers . Viable for passage in all these states
  in 2008-09.
• Nationally More than 360 state legislative
  sponsors in 47 states expect bills in all 50
  states in 2008-9.

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Endorsements for NPV Proposal

• Organizations
• Common Cause
• FairVote
• National Black Caucus of State Legislators
• National Latino Congreso and Asian American
  Action Fund
• Supportive reactions by many others
• Editorial Endorsements
• New York Times
• Los Angeles Times and Sacramento Bee
• Minneapolis Star-Tribune
• Chicago Sun Times

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Public Support Consistently Strong

• Gallup as high as 80 in recent decades
• The more the question is debated, the stronger
  the public tends to support a popular vote.
• Washington Post Poll (2007)
• Support 72 Oppose 23 Dont Know 4
• Four Polls by NPV (2005)
• Michigan - 70 Missouri - 66 Maine - 71
  Arkansas - 74
• NPV vs District Plan (2007)
• 69 of California voters favor a national popular
  vote
• Favored NPV to District plan 58-22

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A Roadmap for Winning Reform

• Legislative victories in numerous states
• State ballot measures as potential final vote
• Educational efforts nationwide

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For More Information

• National Popular Vote
• www.NationalPopularVote.com
• FairVote www.FairVote.org