Presidential Elections

1
Presidential Elections

• The Parties
• The campaigns
• Electing the president
• The electoral college
• Bushs victories why and what it means
• The video

2
The Parties

• Not originally planned
• A desire to avoid factions
• Party development
• The federalists and anti-federalists
• Anti-federalists believed in states rights and
  eventually the Democrats took on this stance.
• The Whigs were the party of the aristocracy and a
  strong central government.
• Their interest was a stable government and one
  which aided economic development through active
  participation.

3
The Parties and the Irony

• The Republican party moved from a position of
  strong central government to one of government
  is best which governs least and the Democrats
  have moved from a states rights party to the
  defender of a strong central government and a
  strong welfare system.
• The Democrats lost the South when they
  supported civil rights for blacks.

4
The Republican Party

• Established in 1856 as a third party behind the
  Democrats and Whigs
• Replaced the Whigs by the election of 1860 which
  Lincoln won.
• The main platform was anti-slavery and preserving
  the union and thus was the party of a strong
  central government.
• The progressive wing
• Teddy Rooseveltanti-trust suits, national parks,
  and investigating business practices.

Januray
5
Republican Party

• Political landscapeHøyre to Fremskrittsparti
• Present Platform
• Tax reduction (70 of which goes to the upper
  20)
• Defense build-up
• Pro-business legislationderegulation of
  government restrictions
• Unilateralism and pre-emptive strikes
• Spreading democracy
• Roll back environmental legislation
• Project for the New American Century

6
The Republican Party

• Constituency
• Geographically
• The south (ever since the Democrats passed civil
  rights legislation in the 1960s)
• The mid-west
• The suburbs
• Sociologically
• Middle, upper-middle and upper classes
• Business people
• Evangelicals

7
The Democrats

• Political landscapeHøyre/Venstre
• The Party of Jefferson and Jackson
• Dominated politics until Lincoln
• The party of the people vs. the Whigs
• Pressured for the Bill of Rights
• Supported the rise of the unions
• Wilson, FDR, Kennedy Clinton

8
The Democrats

• Present Platform
• The third way
• Balance the needs of business and the rights of
  the people. Shares some economic concerns with
  Republicans, but are more concerned about the
  working class, environment, diplomacy and
  minorities.
• Progressive tendencies
• FDRsocial welfare
• Kennedy/Johnsoncivil rights
• Carterequal rights

9
The Democrats

• Constituency
• Geographically
• The coasts, New England and the industrial
  mid-west (Pennsylvania, Ohio, Illinois, Michigan,
  Wisconsin, Minnesota)
• Urban areas
• Sociologically/politically
• The working class
• Middle-class
• Minorities
• Jews
• Intellectuals
• Environmentalists

10
Presidential Elections

• The President and Congress are elected separately
• The nature of Washington politics
• Gridlock
• Weak party structure, regional differences and
  horse trading
• Lobbying and external influence
• Can lead to corruption as big money is at stake

11
Flow Chart

• Steps In Selecting A President
• Candidate Declares Intention to Run for Office
• Candidates Campaign for Delegates in State
  Primaries
• Primary Elections, Caucases, and Conventions are
  Held in the States
• National Party Conventions Choose Nominees for
  President and Vice-president
• Voters Choose Presidential Electors in each State
  in the November General Election
• Electoral College Casts Its Votes for President
  in January
• The President and Vice-president are Inaugurated
  on January 20

12
The Campaign

• Positioning
• Each potential candidate must find financial
  backing and create national recognition
• The process starts 2-3 years before the election
• Internet campaign funding
• Avoids special interest funding
• Obama has made a big deal about this and runs as
  an outsider
• Announcing candidacy1 year in advance

13
The Campaign

• The primaries
• A democratic idea gone amok?
• Meet the people, press the flesh
• Iowa New Hampshire
• Creating momentum, getting financial support
• Winning delegates
• The national conventions August September
• A foregone conclusion, but who is the V.P.
  candidate?
• National exposurewatch Obamas jump in the polls

14
The General Election Campaign

• From Labor Day to November
• Focuses on swing states
• The debates
• Body language and appearance are important
• Confidence Image
• Performing above expectations
• Meet the press
• Newspaper endorsements

15
The Cost

• The vicious cycle
• Money to buy time to get donations to buy time on
  TV
• The cost 1.2 billion
• You cant win without money
• The best president money can buy
• Campaign contributions are investments
• Recent lobbying scandalsJack Abramoff
• Dependence on campaign funding corrupts

16
The Medias Role

• Image vs. content Total makeover
• Looking presidential
• The debates and Meet the Press
• The character issue
• The person not the platform
• A 1 ½ party system
• The vicious cycle and media control
• What is projected Image
• Sound bites The average ad is 10 second
• Cost and corruption

17
The Candidates Image

• In 2004, an questionnaire showed that only 10 of
  the voters voted on the basis of issues.
• The winning image personal qualities such as
  honest, simple, straight-talking, God fearing,
  determined, decisive, likeable
• This leads to personal attacks and draws the
  focus away from issues.

18
When Things Get Tough, the Candidates Get Dirty

• Attack ads
• McCain attacked Obamas education policy focusing
  on what he called sex education for kindergarten
  pupils.
• McCain tried to pain Obama as a vacuous
  celebrity like Britney Spires and Paris Hilton
• Obama linked McCain to lost jobs at DHL
• The candidates must respond or look like wooses,
  but the attacks turn off the public.

19
The national election

• 1st Tuesday after the 1st Monday in Nov.
• The popular vote
• The Electoral College vote
• Electoral College as a compromise between the
  larger and small states
• 538 voteseach states representatives in
  Congress
• If one wins the 11 most populated states one can
  lose the rest.

20
The National Election

• The Electoral College and the Campaign
• Campaigning is limited to the big and/or the
  swing states which limits contact
• Election day
• Low voter turnoutapprox. 50
• Difficulty in registration, lack of interest
• 2008 an exception, near 70
• Weatherthe Republicans hope for bad weather in
  the industrial mid-west states and the coasts

21
Electoral College Votes 2008

• Note the two parties regions and changes

22
Note the shift from 1960-2004
23
Trends

• The South has gone Republican
• A result of the Democrats campaign for civil
  rights
• Before the Civil Rights Acts, the South had
  virtual apartheid
• When President Johnson, a Texan, sign the acts he
  stated that he was signing away the South to the
  Republicans
• Movement to the Sunbelt and increased influence
  of these states
• Movement among Hispanics who were Democrats but
  showed movement to the Republicans on the basis
  of moral issuesanti-gay, anti-abortion

24
A Possible Shift Back for the Democrats

• The Southern states may not be as solid
  Republican as they have been since 1965.
• Afro-American population in the South
• Louisiana35 (9 Electoral College votes)
• Mississippi39 (6 Electoral College votes)
• Alabama28 (9 Electoral College votes)
• Georgia32 (15 Electoral College votes)
• South Carolina30 (8 Electoral College votes)
• 92 of Afro-American voters vote for the
  Democrats

25
Recent Scandals

• Abramoff American politics at its dirtiest
• Lobbying and corruptionwhere does information
  stop and bribery begin?
• Abramoff has pleaded guilty to influence peddling
  (arranging meeting with influential politicians
  for a fee) and shows up on pictures at the Oval
  Office with guess who and his clients.
• He has been indicted for embezzlement and bribery
  (it is estimated that he influenced 60 members of
  Congress illegally).
• He helped Tyco avoid off shore taxes bragging
  that he had good relations with member of
  Congress.

26
Recent Scandals

• Election fraud
• There are 3000 counties in the US with its own
  election board and election official are partisan
• In both Florida and Ohio, the Secretary of State
  (responsible for the election) was also the
  campaign manager for Bush
• The problem of accurate vote counting has not be
  remedied in Ohio

27
Recent Scandals cont.

• The two largest provider of voting machines
  donate large amounts to the Republican party
• Let them vote, because we are doing the
  counting.a statement made by the president of
  one of the companies one year before the 2004
  election
• Why was there a discrepancy between the exit
  polls and the final count in Ohio?

28
What the New President Inherited

• Iraq war costs--3 trillion plus Afghanistan
• National Debt 11 trillion
• 2009 budget deficit--482 billion (est)
• A slowing economy with negative GDP growth
• Rising unemployment5, now 10
• Rising health care costs47 million Americans
  have no health insurance
• Discresionary budget items 38 of the budget

29
Abandoned Houses
30
After the Housing Bubble Popped

• http//www.youtube.com/watch?vjmeHiFZUWtE

31
What a Difference a Day Makes

• Obamas foreign policy
• A new tone
• No longer black and white, we against the world
  thinking.
• Dialogue versus confrontation
• An understanding that we cannot dictate results

32
Obama and China

• A new tone and new priorities
• Cooperation on key issues economy and
  environment
• China is the major lender to the U.S. and holds
  1.5 trillion in U.S. paper.
• No longer an emphasis on civil rights infractions
  inspite of the fact that they are increasing a
  more diplomatic tone

33
Obama and Russia

• Russia Has the bear awoken or is it back
  broken?
• They want to be a player, but their economy is in
  shambles and they are moving towards the old
  authoritarian state.
• Tricky issues The rocket shield, Georgia and
  Ukraine in NATO.
• Nuclear disarmament

34
Obama and Israel

• Further expansion of the settlements
• and expropriation of Palestinian houses is
  unacceptible
• The Israelis are suspicious of Obamas
  intensions.
• What they dont understand is his tendency to
  look at both sides of the question
• A two states solution is the only one

35
Obama and the Middle-East

• A complicated formula
• Russia has good relations with Iran and thus is
  important for a solution
• U.S. and Syria must talk, but Syria supports
  Hizbollah and Hamas
• Syria and Israel must resolve the Golan Heights
  issue
• Iran has strong influence in Irak.

36
Afghanistan

• A mistake?
• Afghanistan consists of warlord controlled areas.
• It is not a unified country, but a collection of
  fiefdoms with conflicting interests.
• The main economic source poppies
• Can the war be won and at what price?

37
Obama and Latin America

• The relationship was put on hold during the Bush
  administration
• There was a considerable move to the left
• Chavez, Morales, Lula
• The development of Banco del Sur could take
  Latin America out of the grasp of IMF
• Venezuela is no strategic threat to the
  USAObama, but has developed an alliance with
  Russia and bought Russian weapons

38
Domestic Issues

• Health care reform
• Environment
• Education

39
Obama and Latin America

• Where to start to improve Latin American
  relations
• Cubalifting restrictions on visits and money
  transfersdone. Lifting restrictions on
  investments and businessdo be done.
• Honduras
• Colombiaopening new bases??
• The School of Americas??

40
The Video

• Coverage of the Republican primaries to choose
  the Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate
• The video does not touch on the presidential
  campaign, but describes campaigning in general
• Total make-over, image creation, the campaign
  trail and dirty tricks.