Presidential Elections

1
Presidential Elections

• POLS 125 Political Parties Elections

Any American who is prepared to run for
president should automatically, by definition, be
disqualified from ever doing so.  Gore Vidal
2
The Electoral College Tally, 2008
3
(No Transcript)
4
How Presidents and Vice Presidents are Chosen
5
A certificate of vote lists all persons who
received electoral votes for President and Vice
president the number of electors who voted for
each person.
A certificate of ascertainment names of the
electors chosen by the voters and the number of
votes received.
6
Are electors bound by law to cast their vote for
a specific candidate?

• Yes in these states AL, AK, CA, CO, CT, DC, FL,
  HI, ME, MD, MA, MI, MS, MT, NE, NV, NM, NC, OH,
  OK, OR, SC, VT, VA, WA, WI, WY. (those in yellow
  are bound by party pledges)
• No in these states AZ, AR, DE, GA, ID, IL, IN,
  IA, KS, KY, LA, MN, MO, NH, NJ, NY, ND, PA, RI,
  SD, TN, TX, UT, WV.

7
Arguments for the Electoral College

• Contributes to the cohesiveness of the country by
  requiring a distribution of popular support to
  become president
• Enhances the status of minority interests
• Contributes to the political stability of the
  nation by encouraging a two-party system
• Maintains the federal system of government and
  representation

8
Arguments Against the Electoral College

• The possibility of electing president receiving a
  minority of the popular vote
• The risk of so-called faithless electors
• The possible role of the Electoral College in
  depressing voter turnout
• Failure to accurately reflect the popular will

9
Consequences
10
Consequences
11
Reforming the Electoral College

• Do nothingmaintain the status quo.
• Abolish the electoral college outright and use a
  direct popular vote to determine outcomesweigh
  individual votes equally everywhere one person,
  one vote.
• Retain the apportionment of the electoral college
  but allow for a proportional allocation of
  electoral votes.
• Retain the apportionment of the electoral college
  but allocate one electoral vote for every
  congressional district a presidential candidate
  carries plus two more for each state.
• Adopt a national bonus plan that would maintain
  the Electoral College but add 102 electoral votes
  to the existing total of 538 and award all of the
  bonus votes to the national popular-vote winner.

12
Four Methods for Aggregating Votes
Year Candidate Electoral College Proportional Plan District Plan Direct Popular Vote
1960 Nixon 219 266.1 278 49.5
Kennedy 303 265.6 245 49.8
Byrd 15 5.3 14 0.7
1976 Ford 240 258.0 269 48.0
Carter 297 269.7 269 50.1
Others 1 10.2 0 1.9
2000 Gore 266 258.4 267 48.2
Bush 271 260.2 271 48.0
Others 0 19.4 -- 3.8

13
Reforming the Electoral College

• Do nothingmaintain the status quo.
• Abolish the electoral college outright and use a
  direct popular vote to determine outcomesweigh
  individual votes equally everywhere one person,
  one vote.
• Retain the apportionment of the electoral college
  but allow for a proportional allocation of
  electoral votes.
• Retain the apportionment of the electoral college
  but allocate one electoral vote for every
  congressional district a presidential candidate
  carries plus two more for each state.
• Adopt a national bonus plan that would maintain
  the Electoral College but add 102 electoral votes
  to the existing total of 538 and award all of the
  bonus votes to the national popular-vote winner.

14
Why Great Men are Not Chosen Presidents
The safe candidate may not draw in quite so many
votes from the moderate men of the other side as
the brilliant one would, but he will not lose
nearly so many from his own ranks. Even those
who admit his mediocrity will vote straight when
the moment for voting comes. Besides, the
ordinary American voters does not object to
mediocrity. He has a lower conception of the
qualities requisite to make a statesmen than
those who have direct public opinion in Europe
have. He likes his candidate to be sensible,
vigorous, and above all, what he calls
magnetic, and does not value, because he sees
no need for, originality or profundity, a fine
culture or a wide knowledge.
James Bryce, The American Commonwealth (1888)
15
November 4, 2008
375 days, 14 hours, and 45 minutes to go!
16
Why Great Men are Not Chosen Presidents
In America, which is beyond all other countries
the country of a career open to talents, a
country, moreover, in which political life is
unusually keen and political ambition widely
diffused, it might be expected that the highest
place would always be won by a man of brilliant
gifts. But from the time when the heroes of the
Revolution died out with Jefferson and Adams and
Madison, no person expect General Grant, had,
down till the end of last century, reached the
chair whose name would have been remembered had
he not been president except Abraham Lincoln had
displayed rare of striking qualities in the
chair. Who now knows or cares to know anything
about the personality of James K. Polk or
Franklin Pierce? The only thing remarkable about
them is that being so commonplace they should
have climbed so high. James Bryce, The American
Commonwealth (1888)
James Bryce
17
The Presidential Nomination Process

• How does the process work (then vs. now)?
• Who does it advantage?
• Is further reform necessary?
• Are the qualities that make a good candidate the
  same qualities that make a good president?

18
Then and Now
Bottom up, driven by primaries and caucuses
PREDICTABLE
Top down, dominated by party elite
BORING
19
Its got a huge cast, the series goes on forever
and Fred Thompson shows up at the end.
Mitt Romney, commenting on how the prolonged
system of debates is a lot like an episode of Law
Order
20
Presidential Candidates
For the first time since 1928, both major parties
will have open contests for the Presidential
nomination without a sitting President or Vice
President in the running

• Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton
• Sen. Barack Obama
• Sen. John Edwards

• Sen. John McCain
• Gov. Mitt Romney
• Mayor Rudy Giuliani

21
Political Conventions, Then and Now

• Throughout the 19th and into the 20th century,
  nominating conventions were controlled by state
  party leaders who used their influenced to
  handpick their states delegates.
• Critics of the party bosses eventually
  supported reforms that allowed voters within each
  state to select convention delegates in primary
  elections. By 1916, more than half of the states
  held presidential primaries.
• While conventions were once raucous,
  unpredictable affairs, today they offer little
  drama because nominees are effectively determined
  months before.

22
Percentage of Convention Delegates Chosen in
Primaries
23
Reforming the Nomination System
The number of candidates seeking their partys
nomination, the range of issues, and the
diversity of their public appeals have sensitized
the parties to their heterogeneous base. Lauding
their diversity, the parties have given economic
and social groups within them a chance to be
heard, to pursue their interests, and even to put
forth candidates who can win the nominations.
All of this has put the parties more in touch
with themselves. But it has also given those who
can effectively mobilize their supporters much
more influence. Therein lies the
problem. Stephen J. Wayne, Is This Any Way to
Run a Democratic Election?
24
The 2008 Electoral Calendar
FRONTLOADING AND COMPRESSION
March 2, 2004 SUPER TUESDAY California
presidential/state primary (370)Connecticut
presidential primary (49)Georgia presidential
primary (86)Maryland presidential/state primary
(69)Massachusetts presidential primary
(93)Minnesota caucuses (72)New York
presidential primary (236)North Dakota
Democratic caucusesOhio presidential/state
primary (140)Rhode Island presidential primary
(21)Vermont presidential primary (15)Washington
presidential primary
January 19, 2004 Iowa caucuses (45) January 27,
2004 New Hampshire presidential primary (22)
25
The 2004 Electoral Calendar
In 2004, the Democratic nomination for president
was determined by 4,317 delegate votes. A simple
majority (2,159) was needed to win. State
primaries and caucuses determined how the 3,520
pledged delegates voted. The remaining 797
unpledged delegates (or superdelegates) were
party leaders and elected officials. They were
permitted to vote for whomever they pleased. The
nominee was officially declared at the Democratic
partys convention in Boston, July 26-29.
FRONTLOADING AND COMPRESSION
March 2, 2004 SUPER TUESDAY California
presidential/state primary (370)Connecticut
presidential primary (49)Georgia presidential
primary (86)Maryland presidential/state primary
(69)Massachusetts presidential primary
(93)Minnesota caucuses (72)New York
presidential primary (236)North Dakota
Democratic caucusesOhio presidential/state
primary (140)Rhode Island presidential primary
(21)Vermont presidential primary (15)Washington
presidential primary
January 19, 2004 Iowa caucuses (45) January 27,
2004 New Hampshire presidential primary (22)
26
The 2008 Electoral Calendar
In 2008, the Democratic nomination for president
was determined by 4,317 delegate votes. A simple
majority (2,159) was needed to win. State
primaries and caucuses determined how the 3,520
pledged delegates voted. The remaining 797
unpledged delegates (or superdelegates) were
party leaders and elected officials. They were
permitted to vote for whomever they pleased. The
nominee was officially declared at the Democratic
partys convention in Boston, July 26-29.
FRONTLOADING AND COMPRESSION
March 2, 2004 SUPER TUESDAY Alabama, Alaska
(caucuses), Arizona, Arkansas, California,
Colorado (caucuses), Connecticut, Delaware,
Georgia, Idaho (D caucuses), Illinois, Kansas (D
caucuses), Massachusetts, Minnesota (caucuses),
Missouri, Montana (R caucuses), New Jersey, New
Mexico (D), New York, North Dakota (caucuses),
Oklahoma, Tennessee, Utah, West Virginia,
American Samoa (caucuses)
January 3, 2008 Iowa caucuses January 8, 2008 New
Hampshire primary
27
Iowa and New Hampshire
"If you look at the caucuses system, they are
dominated by the special interests in both
parties. The special interests don't represent
the centrist tendencies of the American people.
They represent the extremes." Howard Dean, 2000
28
(No Transcript)
29
Why Great Men are Not Chosen Presidents Revisited
It must also be remembered that the merits of a
president are one thing and those of a candidate
are another thing. James Bryce, The American
Commonwealth
30
What kind of president do Americans want?
A charismatic leader and man of conviction?
A passionate leader who tells it like it is?
A well-meaning, ordinary guy?
A man who can kick butt when he needs to?
31
Could these men be elected president today?
32
Why Great Men Are Not Chosen President
Nearly a century later with parties in decline,
an American scholar, James McGregor Burns,
responded to Bryce with a chapter of his own
titled Why Great Men Are Chosen President
(1965), arguing instead that the office of the
Presidency brings out greatness in men.
Burns wrote of the presidential campaign as a
kind of training ground, testing men for the very
qualities they must display in the White House.
Campaigns, he said, ruthlessly cast aside
aspirants who cannot organize a large campaign
organization, who cannot bargain with other
leaders, who cannot appeal to the mass of voters,
who cannot spell out their programs, who cannot
hold their tempers and keep their sense of humor.
The whole presidential selection system is almost
ideally suited for the selection of men who can
become great in the White House. Do you agree
or disagree and why?
33
The Permanent Campaign

• More and more states have moved their primaries
  and caucuses toward the beginning of the
  electoral process in order to exercise more
  influence over the selection of the nominees,
  encourage the candidates to address the needs and
  interests of the state, and get their campaigns
  to spend money in them. This is known as
  front-loading.
• In a practice known as regionalization, states
  have cooperated with one another to hold their
  primaries and caucuses on the same date to
  maximize the influence of a region.

Both of these trends have forced candidates to
begin their campaigns earlier to gain a foothold
in the states that hold the initial contests.
Candidates also have had to depend increasingly
on the mass media, particularly radio and
television, and on the endorsements of state
party leaders to help them reach voters in the
multiple states that may be conducting their
primaries on the same day. This benefits
candidates who are well-known nationally.
Source Stephen J. Wayne, Presidential
Nominations and American Democracy, at
http//usinfo.state.gov/products/
pubs/election04/ nominate.htm
34
The Nomination System Appraised
The presidential nominating process is not
perfect, but in recent decades it has

• Enhanced participation
• Improved demographic representation
• Strengthened the tie between the average partisan
  and the candidates

Is this a bad thing?
As constituted, the process gives advantage to
candidates who are better known, can raise more
money, have the most effective campaign
organizations, and generate the most enthusiasm
among the voters early in the presidential
primary season.
Source Stephen J. Wayne, Presidential
Nominations and American Democracy, at
http//usinfo.state.gov/products/
pubs/election04/ nominate.htm