PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION MECHANICS

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PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION MECHANICS
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The Franchise 1789

• Under the original constitution, who had the
  right to vote?
• for U.S. House?
• for U.S. Senate?
• for Presidential electors?
• for state and local officials?

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The Franchise 1789 (cont.)

• Voter qualifications (including for U.S. House
  and Presidential electors) were set entirely by
  state law
• Proviso The House of Representatives shall be
  composed of members chosen every second year by
  the people of the several states, and the
  electors in each state shall have the
  qualifica-tions requisite for electors of the
  most numerous branch of the state legislature.
  Article 1, Section 2
• Property-owning/tax-paying qualifications were
  common, and
• often scaled to level of office
• Perhaps 50 of adult white males were eligible to
  vote in early elections,
• plus some free blacks (and even some women) were
  eligible to vote in some elections in some states.

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The Franchise 1830s

• Jacksonian Revolution
• Almost all adult white males got the right to
  vote
• All Presidential electors were popularly elected
  (except in SC)
• Voter mobilization campaigns by competing
  (Democratic and Whig) political parties greatly
  increased voting turnout, i.e.,
• the proportion of eligible voters who actually
  cast votes.
• But non-whites (and most or all women) lost the
  right to vote (in so far as they previously had
  that right).

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14th Amendment

• Section 1. No state shall make or enforce any law
  which shall abridge the privileges or immunities
  of citizens of the United States ... nor deny
  to any person within its jurisdiction the equal
  protection of the laws.
• Section 2. Representatives shall be apportioned
  among the several states according to their
  respective numbers, counting the whole number of
  persons in each state, excluding Indians not
  taxed. But when the right to vote at any election
  for the choice of electors for President and Vice
  President of the United States, Representatives
  in Congress, the executive and judicial officers
  of a state, or the members of the legislature
  thereof, is denied to any of the male inhabitants
  of such state, being twenty-one years of age, and
  citizens of the United States, or in any way
  abridged, except for participation in rebellion,
  or other crime, the basis of representation
  therein shall be reduced in the proportion which
  the number of such male citizens shall bear to
  the whole number of male citizens twenty-one
  years of age in such state. IMPLICATION FOR
  ELECTORAL COLLEGE

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15th Amendment

• Section 1. The right of citizens of the United
  States to vote shall not be denied or abridged by
  the United States or by any state on account of
  race, color, or previous condition of servitude.
• Section 2. The Congress shall have power to
  enforce this article by appropriate legislation.

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The Franchise Turn of the 20th Century

• The Jim Crow regime was established in the
  South.
• Jim Crow had two main elements
• de jure segregation and
• de facto disenfranchisement (poll tax, literacy
  test, grandfather clause, white primary,
  intimidation)
• Blacks remain enfranchised outside the South (but
  relatively few lived outside the South until WWI
  and WWII)
• Women gained the right to vote in some states
  (especially in the West) in late 19th/early 20th
  centuries.
• Caused dramatic apportionment effects in
  Electoral College
• E.g., 1916 State Electoral Vote Popular Vote
• IL 29 2,192,707
• NY 45 1,706,305
• PA 38 1,297,189
• 19th Amendment (1920)
• The right of citizens of the United States to
  vote shall not be denied or abridged by the
  United States or by any state on account of sex.

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The Franchise 20th Century

• 23rd Amendment (1963)
• The District constituting the seat of government
  of the United States shall appoint in such manner
  as the Congress may direct a number of electors
  of President and Vice President equal to the
  whole number of Senators and Representatives in
  Congress to which the District would be entitled
  if it were a state, but in no event more than the
  least populous state they shall be in addition
  to those appointed by the states, but they shall
  be considered, for the purposes of the election
  of President and Vice President, to be electors
  appointed by a state and they shall meet in the
  District and perform such duties as provided by
  the twelfth article of amendment.
• 24th Amendment (1964)
• The right of citizens of the United States to
  vote in any primary or other election for
  President or Vice President, for electors for
  President or Vice President, or for Senator or
  Representative in Congress, shall not be denied
  or abridged by the United States or any state by
  reason of failure to pay any poll tax or other
  tax.
• Voting Rights Act (1965)
• 26th Amendment (1971)
• The right of citizens of the United States, who
  are 18 years of age or older, to vote, shall not
  be denied or abridged by the United States or any
  state on account of age.

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The Franchise Continuing Issues

• Failed 27th Amendment
• Section 1. For purposes of representation in the
  Congress, election of the President and Vice
  President, and article V of this Constitution,
  the District constituting the seat of government
  of the United States shall be treated as though
  it were a State.
• Felon disenfranchisement
• State laws vary
• Voter ID laws, etc.
• Presumably the franchise should be uniform across
  all states and DC if the Electoral College were
  replaced by a direct national popular vote
  through a constitutional amendment.
• Apportionment of electoral votes is based on
  total population,
• including non-citizens and illegal immigrants (in
  so far as counted by census)

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Voter Registration

• Prior to the late 19th century, only informal
  voter registration systems exists
• probably a lot of fraudulent voting
• vote early and vote often
• States adopted voter registration laws in the
  late 19th century,
• which produced an evident decline in total
  turnout.
• Voter registration systems undoubtedly
• reduced fraudulent voting, but also
• may have had the effect of vote suppression.
• Typically, people who are eligible to vote have
  to take some initiative to get themselves
  registered.
• Moreover, registration list were periodically
  purged of non-voters.
• Mid to latter part of 20th century, general
  liberalization of registration laws (by states,
  by courts, and by Congress)
• Motor Voter Act (1993)
• Help America Vote Act (2002) provisional
  ballots
• Voter registration evidently remains something of
  a mess in many states and localities.
• deadwood problem
• There is uncertainty (and passionate academic
  dispute) concerning the typical turnout rate
  among registered voters.

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Voting Turnout

• Total actual vote/ Total potential vote
• In the U.S., voting turnout in Presidential
  elections is usually calculated as
• total recorded vote for President,
• divided by the census estimate of the voting age
  population (VAP)
• However, such turnout is often (mistakenly)
  characterized as the percent of eligible (or even
  registered) voters who actually voted.
• Election workers who report high turnout on
  election night are looking at the number of
  voters who showed up as a percent of registered
  voters on their lists.

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Problems with PV / VAP

• Numerator misses
• spoiled ballots
• Presidential abstentions
• Denominator
• includes
• (legal and illegal) immigrants
• institutionalized population (generally
  ineligible or unlikely to vote)
• felons perhaps not eligible to vote
• but excludes eligible voters overseas.

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Some Reasons for National Differences in Turnout

• Some countries have compulsory voting.
• Some countries make election day a holiday.
• Most countries have (national) voter enrollment
  (vs. state voter registration) systems,
• in which case, about 90-95 of eligible voters
  are enrolled, and
• turnout denominator is (usually) the number of
  enrolled voters not VAP.
• U.S has unusually frequent elections with many
  offices/propositions at stake in each
  (long-ballot)
• federal/state/local offices
• separate executive and legislative (and often
  judicial) elections (sometimes with runoffs)
• referendums
• plus primaries (sometimes with runoffs)

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TURNOUT IN SELECTED COUNTRIES, 1960-2005
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TURNOUT DECLINE IN ALL OEDC COUNTRIES (1960-2000)
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• Ballot Types and Ballot Access
• Early voting was informal, perhaps oral,
  otherwise voters had to create own ballots,
  hardly secret
• Mass party competition (1830s on) led to party
  ballots
• printed by parties
• listing only party candidates
• distribution to party supporters
• hardly secret (differently colored paper)
• Implications
• No ballot access problem
• Hard for voters to split ticket
• Enhanced influence of party leaders
• Easy to arrange (even on election eve) fusion
  between (major or minor) parties

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Australian Ballot Reform (1890)

• Government election authority prints ballots
• all voters receive same ballot at polling place
• ballots list all candidates for all offices
• secures secret ballot
• Implications
• Ballot access must be regulated
• filing fee, deposit, petition, etc.
• It becomes much easier for voters to cast split
  ticket ballots.
• It reduces the influence of party leaders and
  organizations.
• It becomes harder to fuse party tickets.
• In fact, fusion may be prohibited.
• Partisan vs. non-partisan Australian ballots
• U.K. vs. U.S. example
• what information listed for each candidate?

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Fundamental Implication of a Partisan Australian
Ballot

• Which candidate is entitled to be listed on the
  ballot under a given party label?
• This produces government in U.S., state
  government regulation of party organization and
  nominating procedures,
• in particular, in the U.S. it led to primary
  elections,
• by which a candidate is entitled to be identified
  on the ballot as a party nominee by virtue of
  winning a government-run election.

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Two Formats for U.S. Australian Ballots
Party-Column/Line Ballot vs. Office Block Ballot

• This distinction is relevant only if
• the ballot is partisan, and
• two or more offices are at stake in a single
  election and
• it is especially relevant if many offices are at
  stake long ballot
• Party-Column/Line Ballot
• Such a ballot is set up so that all candidates of
  a given party appear in the same column or line.
• In effect, it is several party ballots placed
  together on the same page.
• It encourages straight ticket voting.
• It may provide for a straight party vote.
• It raises the question of party order on the
  ballot.
• Office-Block Ballot
• Such a ballot groups together all candidates for
  a given office.
• It encourages split ticket voting,
• though it can (but usually does not) provide a
  straight party vote.
• It raises the question of candidate order in each
  block.

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• A Party-
• Column
• Ballot
• (Indiana, 1956)

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An Office-Block Ballot (Massachusetts 1956)
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• An Office Block Ballot
• With a Straight Party Option
• Missouri

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The Notorious Butterfly Ballot
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Presidential Election Ballots

• Does the ballot make any reference to
  Presidential electors? Today, usually but not
  always
• Does ballot list Presidential elector candidates
  individually? Today, usually not
• Does ballot allow or require voters to vote for
  electors individually? Today, never
• If voters are required to vote for electors
  individually, does the ballot indicate the
  candidates to whom the elector candidates are
  pledged? Today, not relevant
• Does state law allow fusion of elector
  candidate slates? NY does

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• Kansas
• (1960)

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Vermont 1960 vs. 2012
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New York (1960) allows fusion
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• Hawaii
• (1960)

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Alabama (1960)
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• Maryland (Baltimore Co.)
• 2008
• No mention
• of electors
• But they actually exist gt

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