Nominations, Elections, and campaigns

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Nominations, Elections, and campaigns

• Chapter 9

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The Evolution of Campaigning

• During election campaigns, political parties help
  structure voting choice
• Successful campaigns need resources to acquire,
  analyze, and disseminate information
• Voter interests
• Campaign tactics
• Candidate message
• Voter turnout

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The Evolution of Campaigning

• Until 1950s, political parties
• ran most campaigns
• Todays candidates manage their own campaigns
• Races more candidate-centered
• Must campaign for nomination as well as election
• Parties help with funding and party label

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Nominations

• American political parties use elections to
  choose party nominees
• In most other countries, party leaders choose
  nominees
• In America, each state has own set of laws
  regarding party nominations
• America puts large burden on voters

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Nomination for Congress and State Offices

• All states use a primary election as all or part
  of the nomination process
• Nomination process highly decentralized
• Only half of regular party voters vote in a given
  primary UNBELIEVABLE!!!!
• Many primary races have little or no competition

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Primary Elections

• Four types of primary elections
• Closed primaries
• Open primaries
• Modified closed primaries
• Modified open primaries
• Blanket primaries
• Most scholars believe type of primary affects
  strength of party organizations

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Nomination for President

• Presidential candidates for each party chosen at
  national convention
• Until 1960s, party delegates to national
  convention chose nominee
• Since 1972, delegates have been chosen by complex
  process that includes the primary election and
  party caucuses

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Selecting Convention Delegates

• Different states and parties have different
  procedures for selecting delegates
• States follow one of two basic formats
• Presidential primary
• Presidential primary/caucus
• Democratic selection proportional
• Republicans winner takes all

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Selecting Convention Delegates

• Delegates selected openly back one of the
  presidential candidates
• Primary elections and caucuses mean nominees
  names usually known before national conventions
• Early primaries and caucuses result in
  front-loading

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Changes in the Presidential Nominating Process
Until 1968 Since 1972
Party Dominated Candidate Dominated
Few Primaries Many Primaries
Short Campaigns Long Campaigns
Easy Money Difficult Fundraising
Limited Media Coverage Media Focused
Late Decisions Front-Loaded
Open Conventions Closed Conventions
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Campaigning for the Nomination

• A complex, drawn-out process
• Invisible primary
• Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary viewed as
  testing grounds
• In 2008, narrowed field to five Republicans and
  seven Democrats
• Super Tuesday resulted in one Republican and
  two Democrats with the most support by voters

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Only in America Marvels the World
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Campaigning for the Nomination

• John McCain set as Republican nominee after Super
  Tuesday
• Democratic contest not settled until June
  7th!!!!!!!

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Consequences of Presidential Campaigns

• Races with no incumbents contested in both
  parties
• Incumbent presidents usually face little
  opposition
• Iowa and New Hampshire do matter MEDIA attention
• Candidates favored most by party identifiers
  usually win nomination
• Winners owe little to national party
  organization!!!!!!

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Figure 9.1From Many to Two Presidential
Hopefuls Starting and Dropping Out
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Elections

• By national law, all seats in House of
  Representatives and 1/3 of seats in Senate
  elected every two years in general election
• State and local offices also on ballot
• President chosen every 4th year in presidential
  election
• Non-presidential elections congressional,
  mid-term, or off-year elections

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Presidential Elections and the Electoral College

• Presidency not automatically given to person with
  the most votes in the general election
• General election selects electors who then select
  president
• States receive one elector for each House and
  Senate seat
• Washington, D.C. also receives three electors

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The Electoral College

• Candidate must have a majority of electoral votes
  (270) to win presidency
• If no candidate receives majority, decision on
  president made by the House Senate chooses vice
  president
• Each state has one vote
• Has only happened in 1800 and 1824

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Figure 9.2Populations Shifts and Political Gains
and Losses Since 1960
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The Electoral College Politics

• Prior to 1860, most electors chosen by state
  legislatures
• After 1860, electors chosen by popular vote
• All states but Maine and Nebraska award electors
  winner takes all
• Election in 2000 came down to Floridas electoral
  votes

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Figure 9.3How America Votes
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The Electoral College Abolish It?

• Over 700 proposals to abolish electoral college
  introduced in Congress over the years
• Electoral vote system allows states to decide how
  electors chosen a federal system
• Many voters appear to prefer nationwide direct
  popular vote
• Grover Cleveland (1888) and George W. Bush (2000)
  elected despite losing popular vote

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Figure 9.4The Popular Vote and the Electoral Vote
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Support for the Electoral College

• Generally, results from electoral vote system
  magnify popular vote results
• Electoral college is a federal election system
• Allows small states to have more weight in
  process
• Campaigns carried out via personal contact versus
  the large market media
• Nationwide recounts not needed

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Congressional Elections

• Candidates for president listed at top of ballot,
  
• with other national, state, and local offices
  below
• Voter Fatigue
• Voters can vote straight ticket or split ticket
• between 15 and 30 of voters choose president
  from one party and congressional candidates from
  the other
• Can result in divided government

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Congressional Elections

• Democrats basically in power until 1994
• Winners from single member districts are
  candidates with the most votes
• First-past-the-post elections
• http//www.youtube.com/watch?vs7tWHJfhiyo
• Districts drawn by the party in power and usually
  benefit dominant partyOhio 2010
  Census---Republicans draw new districts.
• Presidents party generally loses seats in
  mid-term elections

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Figure 9.5Presidential Popularity and Party
Seat Loss/Gain
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Campaigns The Political Context

• Most important structural factors in campaign
  planning
• Office sought
• Whether incumbent or challenger
• Non-incumbents more successful in open elections
• More populous and/or diverse districts mean more
  expensive campaigns
• Party preference of electorate also important

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Financing

• Quality of campaign organizations a function of
  money
• However, money alone does not ensure success
• There are four parts to any campaign.
• The candidate, the issues of the candidate,
• the campaign organization, and the MONEY to run
  the campaign with. Without money, you can forget
  the other three. -- former House Speaker Thomas
  (Tip) ONeill

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Regulating Campaign Financing

• State and federal governments regulate campaign
  financing
• Federal Election Campaign Act (FECA) passed in
  1971
• Amendments in 1972 created
• Federal Election Commission (FEC)
• Limits on political action committee (PAC)
  contributions both soft and hard money
• After court challenges, 1974 FECA governed
  elections for about 30 years

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Regulating Campaign Financing

• Increases in campaign contributions and spending
  led to Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act (BCRA) in
  2002
• Limits on contributions by individuals
• Banned soft money contributions to political
  parties
• Allowed 527 committees to spend unlimited amounts
  for media, with some limits
• 2007 Supreme Court ruling struck down ban on
  issue ads before elections
• New committees formed 501(c)4 social welfare
  organizations
• 2010 Supreme Court ruling overturned ban on
  corporate and Labor contributions to candidates
• Citizens United v. FEC

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Public Financing of Presidential Campaigns

• Both FECA and BCRA provided for public financing
  for presidential campaigns
• Subject to spending limits!!!!
• Until 1996, all eligible candidates used public
  funds for primary elections
• Since 1996, more and more candidates refusing
  public funds for primaries
• Funding for general election follows different
  rules most candidates used until 2004Obama did
  not

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Private Financing of Congressional Campaigns

• Candidates for national office raised over 3
  billion during the 2007-2008 primary and general
  electionsUnbelievable!!!
• Obama raised almost 750 million
• McCain raised almost 370 million
• Congressional candidates raised almost 1.4
  billion

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Future Trends in Campaign Finance

• Public funding faces uncertain future
• Major candidates can raise more money on their
  own
• Contribution bundlers
• Internet fundraising
• BCRA limited soft money but not amounts raised
  for presidential campaigns

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Strategies and Tactics

• Strategies are broad approaches to campaigns
• Party-centered strategies
• Issue-oriented strategies
• Candidate-oriented strategies
• Strategies must take into account political
  context

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Pollsters and Political Consultants

• Well-funded campaigns buy polling packages
• Benchmark poll
• Focus groups
• Trend polls
• Tracking polls
• Information gathered then used to tailor campaign
  to current political situation

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Making the News

• News coverage valuable because its free and
  seems objective to the public
• Incumbents have advantage
• News coverage frequently limited to sound bites
• Horse-race metaphors limit attention to issues
  bandwagons, losing ground, the front-runner, and
  the likely loser

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Advertising the Candidate

• Main objective for campaigns ads
• NAME RECOGNITION
• Voters may not recall name but recognize on a
  list, such as a ballot
• Must also point out virtues of candidate
• Campaign ads also sometimes attack opponent or
  play on emotions
• Majority of ads use electronic media

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Advertising the Candidate

• Recent years ads tend to mention personal
  characteristics rather than policy preferences
• Negative ads can be either attack ads or contrast
  ads
• Media sometimes report controversial ads as news
• Candidates must approve message in their ads
  independent groups do not

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Using the Internet

• Use started in 1992 with e-mail to supporters
• Democrats pioneered Internet usage in election
  campaigns, both to raise funds and mobilize
  supporters
• Also use social networking sites, blogs, and
  YouTube
• Internet inexpensive way to quickly contact
  supporters, but TV still best way to reach
  average voters

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Explaining Voting Choice

• Long-term forces predispose voters to choose
  certain types of candidates
• Party identification most important
• Short-term forces associated with particular
  elections
• Combination of candidates and policy positions on
  current issues

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Party Identification

• Over half of electorate decides candidate before
  party conventions
• Early decisions generally vote based on party
  identification
• Each candidate in 2008 received 90 of vote of
  self-described partisans
• Independents generally favored Obama
• Republicans have won more elections due to lack
  of Democratic voter turnout and other short-term
  factors

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Figure 9.6Effect of Party Identification on the
Vote, 2008
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Hopes Fulfilled
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Issues and Policies

• Candidates exploit issues that seem to be
  important to voters
• Incumbents record versus problems pointed out by
  challenger
• Even with no incumbent, that partys candidate
  may be tied to outgoing president

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Hopes Dashed
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Candidates Attributes

• Attributes important because most voters lack
  information about candidates past performance
  and policy stands
• Stereotypical thinking may play into some voters
  decisions

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Evaluating the Voting Choice

• Party identification and candidate attributes not
  basis for voting according to democratic theory
• Citizens should vote based on past performance
  and proposed policies
• However, all are factors when developing
  statistical models to explain voting
• Historically, attributes and party identification
  most important

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Evaluating the Voting Choice

• Recent studies show increase in policy-based
  voting
• Relationship between party identification and
  voters positions on issues more distinct today
• Alignment between party and ideology almost
  perfect in congressional voting

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Campaign Effects

• While campaign may not cause change in party
  identification, can influence enough votes to
  change outcome of election
• Television ads main method for transmitting
  candidates message
• Battleground states key
• Presidential campaign in 2008 most expensive ever
• No major candidate took federal matching funds in
  primary only McCain in general election

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The Americanization of Campaigns
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The Presidential Debates

• First televised debate in 1960 between John F.
  Kennedy and Richard Nixon
• In 1976, televised debates began airing regularly
• Presidential and vice-presidential debates in
  2008 election led to rise in support for Obama in
  election polls

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Campaigns, Elections, and Parties

• Party organizations not central to elections in
  America
• Both parties follow majoritarian model by
  formulating different party platforms and
  pursuing announced policies when in office
• Weak connection between party platform and voters
  during campaigns and elections
• Party platforms do not play major role in
  elections, especially those for House and Senate
  seats

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Parties and the Pluralist Model

• The way parties operate in America more like
  pluralist model
• Function as two giant interest groups
• Parties prefer candidates who support party
  platform
• However, candidates operate as entrepreneurs, and
  may vote against party leadership
• Stronger parties might be able to better
  coordinate government policies after elections