Campaign Financing and Election Outcome

1
Campaign Financing and Election Outcome
A study of the correlation between fundraising in
the U.S. and popular votes in presidential
elections
2
Overview

• Project Background
• Brainstorming
• Federal Election Commission
• Goals/Objectives
• Preliminary Comparison
• Election 2000 and 2004
• Relationship Findings

• Election 2008
• Primaries
• Republican Candidates
• Democratic Candidates
• General Election
• Total Party Contributions
• Electoral College
• Conclusions
• Limitations and Future Work

3
Background

• Election 2008 in the media constantly
• First Presidential Election in 12 years with no
  previous ties to the White House
• General Public knowledge about Campaign Financing
• Federal Election Commission

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Federal Election Commission

• Ensures that candidates and convention committees
  requesting public funds have satisfied the
  eligibility requirements.
• Reviews submitted contributions
• Audits all public funding recipients to ensure
  that the funds were spent in compliance with the
  law

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Presidential Candidates and the Federal Election
Commission

• Only candidates seeking nomination by a political
  party for the office of President are eligible to
  receive primary matching funds
• A candidate must establish eligibility by showing
  broad-based public support must raise in excess
  of 5,000 in each of at least 20 states
  (100,000).
• Although an individual may contribute up to
  2,300 to a primary candidate, only a maximum of
  250 per individual applies toward the 5,000
  threshold in each state.

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Presidential Candidates must agree to the
following

• Limit campaign spending for all primary elections
  to 10 million (plus a cost-of-living adjustment
  COLA). This is called the national spending
  limit.
• Limit campaign spending in each state to 200,000
  plus COLA, or to a specified amount based on the
  number of voting age individuals in the state
  (plus COLA), whichever is greater.
• Limit spending from personal funds to 50,000.

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Goals

• Presidential Elections 2000 and 2004
• Show relationship between Campaign Contributions
  and Popular Vote by state
• Presidential Election 2008
• Predict Primary Election using Funds Raised from
  Quarters 1 and 2 of 2007
• Speculate General Election Results

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Objectives

• Inform average voter about the relationship
  between presidential campaign funding and
  political race outcome
• Illustrate a relationship between popular votes
  and campaign funding

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Election 2000
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Election 2000
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Election 2004
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Election 2004
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Republican Candidates 2008
Totals Romney 30,859,721 Giuliani
30,590,059 McCain 20,900,595
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Democratic Candidates 2008
Totals Clinton 47,669,977 Obama
42,953,612 Edwards 18,213,607
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Democratic Primary Outcome

• Electoral Votes
• Clinton 284
• Obama 167
• Edwards 87

• Considered candidate that rose the most money in
  each state the winner
• The election of delegates to the Democratic
  National Convention is handled differently in
  every state but all consider state population
  as factor
• To account for population, we used the number of
  electoral votes to determine the primary winner

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Republican Primary Outcome

• Electoral Votes
• Guiliani 237
• Romney 231
• McCain 70

• Considered candidate that rose the most money in
  each state the winner
• The election of delegates to the Republican
  National Convention is handled differently in
  every state but all consider state population
  as factor
• To account for population, we used the number of
  electoral votes to determine the primary winner

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Comparison of Republican Candidates vs.
Democratic Candidates Funds Raised
General Election 2008
Totals Democrats 108,837,196 Republicans
82,355,375
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General Election Outcome
Total Projected Electoral Votes Democrats
(Blue) 358/538 67 Republicans (Red) 180/538
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What about percentage error from past elections?
Remember? States where candidates with more
campaign contributions didnt win the popular vote
In 2000, the percentage difference by electoral
vote is 26 In 2004, the percentage difference by
electoral vote is 14 Average is 20 So, assuming
/- 20 error Democratic electoral votes 250
466 Republican electoral votes 36 288 Votes
required to win election 270 Chance of Clinton
victory 91 Chance of Giuliani victory
7 Chance of no electoral winner 2
2004 8 states
The new House of Representatives votes between
the top three candidates to select a president.
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Conclusions

• 2008 Presidential Race
• Democratic Party nominee Hillary Clinton
• Republican Party nominee Rudy Giuliani
• Interestingly, neither of these candidates raised
  the largest amount of money in Q1 and Q2 of 2007
• Winning in highly populated states counts!
• In general election and Republican primary, state
  winner takes all

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Conclusions
Population Counts!
2004 Presidential Election Results by State
2004 Presidential Election Results by Population
Cartogram
Source http//www-personal.umich.edu/mejn/electi
on/
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Conclusions

• 44th President of the United States Hillary
  Clinton
• Why?
• Clinton will win Democratic primary due to
  support in populous states
• General election relies heavily on patterns from
  2000 and 2004 popular vote in 80 states went
  to the candidate whose party raised more money in
  that state

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Limitations

• Problem The primary/caucus process varies for
  each state and party
• Solution Study the primary/caucus process for
  the 2008 election and develop a more complex
  formula for determining the winner

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Limitations

• Problem Our study does not consider the impact
  of 3rd party and Independent candidates on the
  general election
• Problem Our study only includes the three
  front-runners for each party in primary
  predictions

• Solution Include additional candidates in our
  study.

Ralph Nader won 3 of the popular vote in 2000.
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Limitations

• Problem Our analysis relies on pattern
  established by two quarters of fundraising
• Presidential primaries will take place after four
  quarters of fundraising
• General election contributions will also include
  federal matching funds
• Solution Study contributions to 2004
  presidential candidates for the first two
  quarters of 2003

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Conclusions

• Suggestions for similar projects
• Simplify your problem!
• Create a map template
• Study this subject closer to
• election, if possible

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Future Work

• Our study does not account for contributions and
  voting at the county level, only the state level.

2004 Presidential Election Results by State
2004 Presidential Election Results by County
Source http//www.princeton.edu/rvdb/JAVA/electi
on2004/PurpleAmericaPosterAll50.gif
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Future Work

• Revisit this project in early January 2008
• Fundraising figures for all four quarters of 2007
• Directly before state primaries begin
• Calculate federal matching funds for Democratic
  and Republican nominees

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Future Work

• Use this data to plan a campaign trail
• Campaign staffers decide to plan visits to states
  where races are very close
• Our Suggestions
• (W) denotes the candidate currently predicted to
  win
• Democratic Primary
• California is very close between Obama and
  Clinton (W)
• Iowa is very close between Obama and Edwards (W)
• Republican Primary
• Illinois is very close between all candidates.
  McCain (W)
• Florida is very close between Romney and Guiliani
  (W)

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Sources

• Federal Election Commission (FEC)
• http//www.fec.gov
• United States Geological Survey (USGS)
  http//www.usgs.gov
• Center for Responsive Politics http//www.opensecr
  ets.org
• Maps and cartograms of the 2004 US presidential
  election results (University of Michigan)
• http//www-personal.umich.edu/mejn/election/
• Election 2004 Results http//www.princeton.edu/rv
  db/JAVA/election2004/

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Questions?
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Calculating Likely Election Winner

• Clinton
• For Clinton to lose, number of electoral votes is
  between 250 and 269.
• Clintons possible number of electoral votes
  according to analysis is between 250 and 466.
• Clintons chances of losing (269-250)/(466-250)
  0.09 (9)
• Conversely, Clintons changes of winning 91
• Giuliani
• For Giuliani to win, number of electoral votes is
  between 270 and 288.
• Giulianis possible number of electoral votes
  according to analysis is between 36 and 288.
• Giulianis chances of winning
  (288-270)/(288-36) 0.07 (7)
• Chances of no electoral winner 100 Clintons
  chances (91) Giulianis chances (7) 2