Europe United we stand, divided we fall

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EuropeUnited we stand, divided we fall
..but what are we at present?
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Racial, religious territorial issues in Europe
ONGOING VIOLENCE Spain Basques
UNEASY TRUCE Balkans Muslims - Serbs
CEASEFIRE - CESSATION Ireland Protestants -
Catholics
DORMANT or EXTINCT France Bretons - French
ECONOMIC /or POLITICAL Belgium Walloons -
Flemish Germany East-west Italy North -
South Greece Macedonia Greece/Turkey
Cyprus Britain/Spain Gibraltar New Europe Olde
Europe
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The Races of Europe
Immigration Problems Turks - Germany Arabs -
France/Spain Pakistanis - UK Albanians etc - Italy
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European Languages
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Religion
Christianity - Protestant -
Catholic Islam Jewish Religion
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The Iron Curtain
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THE BALKANS
F.Y.R.O.M.
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CYPRUS
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CYPRUS

• small country, but major problem for Europe
  Turkish entry depends on resolution
• should Turkey be admitted to EU? Is it
  "European"?
• strategic geographical position
• large, but non-extreme Muslim country
• large number of Turks in Germany (Gastarbeiter)
• entry contentious within between European
  states
• human rights problems death penalty etc
• Turkey's attitude to its past Kurdish problem,
  Armenian massacre - 1915 to 1918

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TURKEY
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TURKEY
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CYPRUS

• Ottoman Turks ruled Cyprus for over three
  centuries ceded to Britain in 1878
• Independence from Britain achieved August 1960,
  after four-year military struggle between UK and
  guerrillas of EOKA (National Organization of
  Cypriot Fighters) who sought enosis (union
  with Greece) - which was anathema to Turkish
  community
• political leader of liberation movement,
  Archbishop Makarios - also head of islands Greek
  Orthodox Church - returned from exile and
  elected President December 1959
• islands new constitution was elaborate
  compromise between British and rival Greek and
  Turkish communities, between whom considerable
  distrust remained
• as part of deal, British kept two large tracts of
  land for military purposes, known as Sovereign
  Base Areas and accounting for 5 per cent of
  islands total area
• deal fell apart in July 1974, when Makarios was
  deposed by military coup (allegedly backed by
  military regime in power in Greece)
• within days, Turkish troops arrived on northern
  coast of Cyprus, invited by Turkish Cypriot
  leader, Rauf Denktash, to intervene in order to
  protect Turkish community on island
• Greeks failed to respond effectively, not least
  because of simultaneous collapse of military
  junta in Athens, besides which
  Greek-Cypriot-controlled National Guard was
  insufficiently equipped to combat fully
  mobilized army
• after Turkish army had taken control of northern
  third of island, ceasefire arranged under UN
  auspices

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CYPRUS

• island partitioned ever since and UN peacekeeping
  forces maintain truce
• in November 1983, Turkish part of island
  proclaimed itself Kuzey Kibris Turk Cumhuriyeti
  (Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, TRNC) -
  however, formal recognition of self-styled
  country only granted by Turkey and a few
  statelets
• TRNC still run by Rauf Denktash - dominant
  political figure in enclave for almost 30 years -
  at last two presidential elections - April 1995
  and April 2000 - re-elected with comfortable
  majorities
• for vast majority of international community,
  legitimate government of Republic of Cyprus
  (Kiprikai Demokratika) is Greek-Cypriot
  administration in Nicosia - until February 2003
  led for a decade by President Glafkos Clerides -
  that month, he was deposed at most recent
  presidential election by Tassos Papadopoulos,
  candidate of center-right Komma Dimokratika
  (Democratic Party)
• present government is coalition of DIKO, AKEL -
  Communist Party which has long been single
  largest force in Greek-Cypriot politics - and
  smaller KISOS party
• principal issue for Greek-Cypriot government
  remains same how to normalize relations with
  TRNC and reunify island.
• numerous diplomatic initiatives ended in failure
  - main sticking points are
• - balance and concentration of power within any
  unified government
• - Turkish troop concentrations in north
• - return of property relinquished by Greek
  refugees and since occupied by Turkish settlers

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The Disunited States of Europe?
BELGIUM
Flemish
Walloons
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The Disunited States of Europe?
BELGIUM - the Walloons (wolunz'),

• group of people living in S Belgium who
  traditionally spoke dialect of French called
  Walloon, but who today mostly part speak standard
  French
• Walloons, numbering some 3.5 million, reside
  mostly in provinces of Hainaut, Liège, Namur,
  Luxembourg, and Walloon Brabant, in contrast to
  Dutch-speaking Flemings of northern provinces
• movement for reviving Walloon literature centered
  in Liège in the 19th cent. today the language
  is considered moribund
• since medieval times economic and social
  background of Walloons has differed radically
  from that of Flemings, and cleavage became even
  more pronounced with Industrial Revolution
• Walloon part of Belgium contains major mining
  areas and heavy industries, while Flemings
  engage mainly in agriculture, manufacturing
  (particularly textiles), and shipping
• tension between Walloons and Flemings has long
  been critical political issue in 1970 plan was
  approved recognizing cultural autonomy of
  Belgium's three national communities
  Dutch-speaking Flemings of the north, the French
  speaking Walloons of the south, and bilingual
  Brussels

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The Disunited States of Europe?
GERMANY

• reunification 1990
• massive economic gaps
• OstMark given parity with Dmark
• billions transferred west to east
• special tax on "Wessies"
• not only economic, but cultural gulf

• bureaucracy
• high social benefits
• endemic unemployment
• public refusal to give up "acquis"
• socialist/capitalist divide still strong .

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The Disunited States of Europe?
ITALY
North of Rome

• industrial - bulk of economy
• many small/medium business
• many family-owned business
• fashion, style, engineering adaptability was
  trump card
• large black market (27?)
• serious competitivity problems
• some call for return of lira

South of Rome

• agricultural - little industry
• earthquake-prone
• Vesuvius!!

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GIBRALTAR
ceded to Britain in perpetuity by the Treaty of
Utrecht, 13 JULY 1713
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BASQUE COUNTRY
many Basques want independence long-running
"terrorist" (or "liberation") movement considerab
le autonomy granted by Central government
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European Languages
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Religion
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European Nation States
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The Iron Curtain
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The CAP the Budget Money, money, money!!!!
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The EU BUDGET - CONTRIBUTORS IN 2004
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The Common Agricultural Policy
A Success?

• introduced in 1960 - aim to provide a reasonable
  standard of living for farmers and
  reasonably-priced food for all
• intention also (especially in France) to maintain
  traditional pattern of farming - avoid massive
  drift away from country to cities
• facilitated free movement of farming products
  within the EU
• after lean war years, concern to ensure reliable
  food supply and self-sufficiency
• this aim succeeded in fact, there is now
  oversupply
• oversupply has led in past to so-called
  "butter-mountains" and food dumping

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The Common Agricultural Policy
A Failure?

• medium and larger farms are paid not to produce
  smaller ones rely on subsidies
• some rich farmers are paid to leave their fields
  fallow (unused)
• subsidies do not go to all farmers mainly to
  dairy farming
• the CAP accounts for 42 of the EU budget,
  limiting investment in other areas
• it distorts world trade in agriculture
  developing countries are particularly penalised
  they can't penetrate the EU
• cost of subsidizing poor farmers in new EU
  countries will put unbearable strains on budget
  reform is essential
• reform will be strongly resisted by current
  beneficiaries
• Britain and France in particular have immovable
  positions

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The British French positions on agriculture

• Britain said it will veto any cut in the 4.4bn
  euro (3bn) rebate unless farm subsidies are
  overhauled, a stance which puts it at
  loggerheads with France.
• French President Jacques Chirac refused to
  discuss any cut in farm subsidies and says the
  rebate should "under no circumstances be linked
  to a reform of farm expenditure."

From the EU summit meeting in June, 2005
Where the money goes ---gt
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The Subsidization of Farming in the World
limits this places on African exports to rich
countries now a hot, political topic
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Symptomatic of EU budgetary problems The
British rebate
French President Jacques Chirac defends French EU
farming subsidies against the British, wielding
their famous rebate
"The problem is the imbalance of the budget 40
of the budget goes to meet the needs of 5 of the
population and 2 of European jobs." Tony Blair,
July 2005
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SPAIN PORTUGAL EU cash business rapid
development South American leanings
SCANDINAVIA detached,calm uncorruptible business-
oriented high taxation common market
The EuroTango
UK common market close to USA "liberal"
economy anti-regulation anti-Brusselslower
taxation
EAST EUROPE fears Russia pro-USA -
anglophile low taxation lots to catch
upbusinessEU moneydevelopment
IRELAND incoming investment favourable
business climate grab the money while it lasts
GERMANY industrial powerhouse major
exporter unemployment East-West divide political
turmoil over-regulated high tax less anti-US
"Olde Europe"
FRANCE anti-USA, statist powerful
lobbies (farmers, civil servants) high
taxation cultural fears"social model" France's
place in world insular tendancy
ITALY style, chic small businesses big
North/South divide struggling to compete call for
lira return dodgy politics
HOLLAND usually the good guys business-oriented f
ed up immigration paying too much taken for
granted
BALTICS dynamic, go-ahead ambitious anti-regulati
on high potential fear Russia
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A View from the USA Robert J Samuelson,
"Washington Post" - June 15th, 2005

• Europe is slowly going bust - not just because
  it's overshadowed by Asia and USA
• Europe's birthrates have dropped well below the
  replacement rate of 2.1 children for each woman
  of childbearing age
• for Western Europe as a whole, rate is 1.5 - it's
  1.4 in Germany and 1.3 in Italy
• already about 17 of the population is 65 and
  older
• by 2030 that would be 25, and by 2050 almost 33
  
• How can European economies support so many old
  people?

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The European Economy .

• Europe's economy already weakening - in 1970s
  annual growth for the Euroland countries
  averaged almost 3 from 2001 to 2004 the annual
  average was 1.2 percent
• in 1974 those countries had unemployment of 2.4
  percent in 2004 the rate was 8.9
• Western Europeans feel their way of life
  threatened.
• one solution to low birthrates is higher
  immigration
• but many Europeans don't like the immigrants they
  have and don't want more
• one way to revive growth would be to reduce
  social benefits, taxes and regulations
• but that would imperil Europe's "social model,"
  which supposedly blends capitalism's efficiency
  and socialism's compassion

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What about the USA, as reported by OECD?

• unemployment with high unemployment benefits,
  almost half of Western Europe's jobless out of
  work a year or more U.S. figure about 12
  percent
• early retirement in 2003 about 60 percent of
  Americans aged 55 to 64 had jobs. comparable
  figures for France, Italy and Germany were 37,
  30 and 39
• Europeans like early retirement, high jobless
  benefits and long vacations
• sources of this benevolence (high taxes, stiff
  regulations) weaken economy - with ageing
  populations, contradictions will only grow
• some research suggests that high old-age benefits
  partly explain low birthrates - with the state
  paying for old age, who needs children as
  caregivers?
• high taxes may also deter couples from assuming
  added costs of children
• other countries are also aging and face problems
  similar to Europe's, but the ageing is more
  pronounced in Europe and a few other nations
  (e.g. Japan), precisely because birthrates are
  so low
• U.S. birthrate, for example, is 2.1 even
  removing births to Hispanic Americans, it's
  about 1.9

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What about the USA, as reported by OECD?

• Europeans could do something about their
  predicament - but mostly they're not
• some countries (Britain, Ireland, the
  Netherlands) have acted, and there are
  differences between East and West Europe
• But in general Europe is immobilized by its
  problems
• classic dilemma of democracy - too many people
  benefit from status quo to change it but status
  quo isn't sustainable
• status quo in France called "les acquis" (e.g.
  train drivers, school university teachers)
• even modest efforts in France and Germany to curb
  social benefits have triggered backlashes and
  government cave-ins
• many Europeans - maybe most - live in a state of
  delusion believing things should continue as
  before they see almost any change as menacing

• All this bad for Europe - and the United States
• a weak European economy is one reason the world
• economy is shaky and so dependent on American
  growth

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• Europe is preoccupied with divisions at home, but
  is looking to the past
• Europe not strong American ally, not only because
  it disagrees with some U.S. policies but also
  because it doesn't want to make the commitments
  required
• unwilling to address their genuine problems,
  Europeans become more reflexively critical of
  America
• this gives the impression that they're active on
  the world stage, even as they're quietly
  acquiescing in their own decline
• French fear of cultural swamping adds to the
  mixture as does "Olde Europe's" search for a
  role on world stage
• France traditionally anti-American (Anglo-Saxon)
  de Gaulle prevented UK entry into EU and once
  withdrew from NATO and find alternative to it
• France's schizophrenia towards UK and USA .
• Iraq ..