Presentaci

1
MEDEX, MEDiterranean Experiment on Cyclones that
produce High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean
WMO World Weather Research Programme
MEDEX IMPLEMENTATION
Agustí Jansà (), INM, Spain Pinhas Alpert, TAU,
Israel Philippe Arbogast, Météo-France Andrea
Buzzi, ISAC, CNR, Italy James Doyle, NRL,
USA Vassiliki Kotroni, NOA, Greece Climent Ramis,
UIB, Spain Evelyne Richard, LA, France Antonio
Speranza, Univ. Camerino, Italy And Members of
MEDEX Advisory Group () jansa_at_inm.es
2
MEDEX, MEDiterranean Experiment on Cyclones that
produce High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean
WMO World Weather Research Programme
General objective of MEDEX The improvement of
knowledge and forecasting of the cyclones that
produce high impact weather in the Mediterranean
area
Specific objectives (MEDEX phase 1,
2001-2004) (a)  To implement a dynamic
climatology of the cyclones that produce high
impact weather in the Mediterranean, to know the
types of cyclonic structures that appears related
to high impact weather events, if any. This is a
necessary step to evaluate the potential impact
of the improvement of the forecasting of cyclones
on the prediction of the high impact weather
itself. It is also necessary to know how
representative is the work done on the base of a
selection of particular cases. (b)   To determine
and rank the multiple geographical and
meteorological factors that are acting in the
generation and evolution of the different types
of cyclones that produce high impact weather in
the Mediterranean. (c)   The identification of
sensitive areas where better initial conditions
may likely lead to improved forecasts. Closely
connected with the former objective is an
assessment of the impact of additional
observations in sensitive areas.
Based on systematic data, covering every day
along a period Based on selected cases
3
MEDEX, MEDiterranean Experiment on Cyclones that
produce High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean
WMO World Weather Research Programme
Priority tasks for MEDEX phase 1 (according the
WWRP/SSC Resolution about MEDEX, Sep. 2000)
a.    Identify the nature, availability, and
usefulness of data presently not available on the
GTS, and to start concentrating these data in a
MEDEX database. b.    Identify a set of cases
where high impact weather was poorly forecast and
conduct co-ordinate, in-depth case studies that
include considerations of forecast skill and
societal impacts associated with both the event
and the poor forecasts. c.    Conduct NWP
studies to identify sensitive areas where the
addition of observations would most likely lead
to improved forecasts and their related benefits.
d.    Conduct research to identify physical and
dynamical hypotheses that might form the basis of
developing improved forecast techniques for
Mediterranean cyclones.
4
MEDEX, MEDiterranean Experiment on Cyclones that
produce High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean
WMO World Weather Research Programme
Identify the nature, availability, and usefulness
of data presently not available on the
GTS Establishment of the MEDEX database

• Steps
• Definition of data requirements (made,
  preliminarily)
• Identification of available data (made,
  preliminarily)
• Implementation of the MEDEX database (under study
  the feasibility of implementation of the database
  in INM-Spain)

1. Definition of data requirements (made,
   preliminarily)

5
P 39 W 25 RADAR 1 SYNOP 25
P 387 W 95 RADAR 1 SYNOP 8
P 80 W 20 RADAR 1 SYNOP 10
P 175 W 50
P 850 W 80 RADAR 2 LIGHT. SYNOP 60
P 1381 W 76 RADAR 7 LIGHT. SYNOP 191
P 49 W 27 RADAR 1
P 96 W 34 RADAR 1
P 29 W 29 SYNOP 40 PILOT 7 TEMP 1
P 163 W 10 RADAR 1 LIGHT.
P 400 W 120 RADAR 1 SYNOP 120
non-GTS data availability
6
MEDEX, MEDiterranean Experiment on Cyclones that
produce High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean
WMO World Weather Research Programme
Specific objective 2 Diagnostic studies and
sensitive experiments (selected cases)
Selection of cases 1995-2002 (This work is a
necessary step for Diagnosis studies and
sensitive experiments concerning factors, as well
as for Identification of sensitive areas).

• The point of departure has been a questionnaire
  submitted to the institutions that are
  participating in MEDEX.
• Selection criteria
• High impact weather (mainly precipitation and
  wind) associated with cyclones affecting the
  Mediterranean area
• Poor forecast skill
• Adverse societal impact and possible mitigation
  depending on forecast skill
• Sensitivity to initial condition and
  meteorological model used
• Data base accessible (meteorological non GTS
  data, documentation on adverse weather impact and
  losses)
• Events affecting more than one country (to favour
  interactions)
• Events associated with different cyclone types
  and representative of all the Mediterranean
  subregions

7
MEDEX, MEDiterranean Experiment on Cyclones that
produce High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean
WMO World Weather Research Programme
Specific objective 2 Diagnostic studies and
sensitive experiments (selected cases)
Selection of cases 1995 - 2002

• More then 80 events were initially suggested by
  17 institutions of 11 countries.
• 27 among them constitute the present selection.
• The pre-selection has been made according the
  following criteria
• Events affecting two or more contiguous
  countries.
• Severe impact weather events (affecting one
  country only).
• Additional events to ensure some degree of
  geographical 'balance'.

NOTE Information about societal impacts, degree
of success of numerical forecasts and alerts is
not always readily available, but a distinct
progress was made in two iterations.
8
MEDEX, MEDiterranean Experiment on Cyclones that
produce High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean
WMO World Weather Research Programme
Geographical cover of selected events
9
MEDEX, MEDiterranean Experiment on Cyclones that
produce High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean
WMO World Weather Research Programme
Specific objective 2 Diagnostic studies and
sensitive experiments (selected cases)
Selection of cases emerged forecasting problems

• Forecast often difficult but skill gradually
  improving in time
• Heavy precipitation (and consequences, mainly
  floods and landslides, also snow) most important,
  but also strong winds (damages, navigation,
  storm surges)
• Most of benefits from meteorological models
  (especially LAM's), ECMWF, U.K.M.O., DWD
  (Europa, LOKALL M.), ARPEGE, ALADIN, BOLAM,
  QBOLAM, ETA, HIRLAM, LAMBO, MASS, MM5, RAMS...)
• Identification of problems limiting forecast
  skill.

10
MEDEX, MEDiterranean Experiment on Cyclones that
produce High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean
WMO World Weather Research Programme
Specific objective 2 Diagnostic studies and
sensitive experiments (selected cases)
Develop/test physical and dynamical hypotheses to
form the basis of improved forecast techniques
for Mediterranean cyclones

• Investigate the physical role (in the formation
  and evolution of cyclones that produce high
  impact weather in the Mediterranean) and model
  representation /assimilation of
• orography
• surface fluxes of latent and sensible heat
• latent heat release
• upper level potential vorticity
• low level jets

11
MEDEX, MEDiterranean Experiment on Cyclones that
produce High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean
WMO World Weather Research Programme
Specific objective 2 Diagnostic studies and
sensitive experiments (selected cases)
Case study by Delitala et al. (SAR -
Sardinia) (impact of high res. forecast of
precip., also ensemble fc.)
BOLAM
ECMWF
13/11/1999 00Z - ECMWF analysis
12
MEDEX, MEDiterranean Experiment on Cyclones that
produce High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean
WMO World Weather Research Programme
Specific objective 2 Diagnostic studies and
sensitive experiments (selected cases)
Case study by Romero et al. (UIB, Palma de
M.) applying piecewise PV inversion
technique PLINIUS CONFERENCE ON MEDITERRANEAN
STORMS
Two rotating upper-level positive PV
anomalies Strong low-tropospheric warm advection
Track, shape and intensity of the surface cyclone
and the corresponding rainfall pattern are very
sensitive to the embedded upper-level PV anomalies
13
MEDEX, MEDiterranean Experiment on Cyclones that
produce High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean
WMO World Weather Research Programme
Specific objective 2 Diagnostic studies and
sensitive experiments (selected cases)
Example of MEDEX-related activities at the
National Observatory of Athens (Kotroni,
Lagouvardos)
14-17 January 1995 multi-model case-study
14
MEDEX, MEDiterranean Experiment on Cyclones that
produce High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean
WMO World Weather Research Programme
Specific objective 2 Diagnostic studies and
sensitive experiments (selected cases)
Severe flood event of NW Italy, 13-16 Oct.
2000 example of hydrological-meteorological
model coupling (ISAO Bologna, Univ. of Genova,
Univ. of Brescia)
Observed and hindcasted runoff at Toce Candoglia,
using the DIMOSOP hydrological model, based on
BOLAM forecasts for the period 2000-10-13 to
200-10-17

• Accumulated precipitation exceeded 700 mm/96 hrs
  and 550 mm/48 hrs (14-15 Oct. 2000)

15
MEDEX, MEDiterranean Experiment on Cyclones that
produce High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean
WMO World Weather Research Programme
Specific objective 3 Identification of sensitive
areas for selected cases

• The objective is to identify areas where better
  initial conditions may lead to improved forecast
  of events of high impact weather connected with
  cyclones.
• The MEDEX project favours the case study approach
  on regional scale.
• The computation of sensitivities requires adjoint
  model code.
• In the case of the Mediterranean area, it is
  expected that diabatic processes will need to be
  included in the adjoint calculations.
• Preliminary to OSSE experiments and to
  identification of observational needs.

16
MEDEX, MEDiterranean Experiment on Cyclones that
produce High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean
WMO World Weather Research Programme
The EUCOS study on Climatology of Sensitive Areas
(Marseille Bouttier, 2000) give us an idea
about were are the most sensitive areas for
Southern Europe
17
6th Session of the Science Steering Committee
for WWRP Oslo, 15-19 Sep. 2003

• Responses to SSC/WWRP recommendations
• use the ERA40 reanalyses as quickly as possible
  to augment the cyclone data base.
• invite societal and economic experts to take part
  regularly in MEDEX committee discussions

18
6th Session of the Science Steering Committee
for WWRP Oslo, 15-19 Sep. 2003
References in the list of selected cases (MEDEX
DB) example
19
6th Session of the Science Steering Committee
for WWRP Oslo, 15-19 Sep. 2003
20
6th Session of the Science Steering Committee
for WWRP Oslo, 15-19 Sep. 2003
(From Homar Stensrud, 2003)
21
6th Session of the Science Steering Committee
for WWRP Oslo, 15-19 Sep. 2003
The MEDEX Data Base
22
6th Session of the Science Steering Committee
for WWRP Oslo, 15-19 Sep. 2003
23
This other example shows the evolution of the
surface circulation and of the ratio between
upper and lower level circulations during the
evolution of the main cyclone associated to the
high priority selected case of 9-13 Nov 01 In
this case, the main cyclogenesis seems to have
important low level contribution, later
increasing the upper level weight.
24
MEDEX, MEDiterranean Experiment on Cyclones that
produce High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean
WMO World Weather Research Programme
Work in progress on MEDEX case studies
HYDROPTIMET (Interreg III - MEDOCC)
BOLAM, 18 km 94 mm
BOLAM, 6 km 134 mm
MOLOCH, 2 km 162 mm
La Garde flood event, France, 9/9/2003
25
MEDEX, MEDiterranean Experiment on Cyclones that
produce High Impact Weather in the Mediterranean
WMO World Weather Research Programme
Work in progress on MEDEX case studies
HYDROPTIMET (Interreg III - MEDOCC)
BOLAM, 18 km 104 mm
BOLAM, 6 km 116/102 mm
Catalunia flood, 10/6/2000
26
5th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Storms
Ajaccio, Corsica, France 13 October 2003
Application of a nudging procedurefor rainfall
assimilationto the 2001 Algerian Flood
S. Davolio and A. Buzzi ISAC - Institute for
Atmospheric Sciences and Climate CNR - National
Research Council s.davolio_at_isac.cnr.it
INSTITUTE OF ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES AND CLIMATE ,
ISAC-CNR
27
(No Transcript)
28
Results
29
Impact on cyclone development and evolution
F
C
12 hours after the end of the assimilation