[e-mail]

1
???????? ? ????-??????
?.?. ?????????
?????????? ?????????? ???????? ???? ????????
????? ???????? ??. ?.?. ???????? ???
rubanovich_at_vigg.ru
????? ??????????? ????? ??????? ?? ????? ?????
www.vigg.ru
2
????-?????? ?????????????? ????????????
????????????
????-?????? ????????? (?????? ???????????)
?????!
??????????? ????????? ?????? ??? ?????????
Coxen, 1970 Smith, 1981 Hunter,
1982 Schmidt, 1982 Jackson, 1982 Rosenthal,
1984
???????? ????????
????? ?????????????? ?????????? ???????, ???
???????, ????????????? ?????????
????? ???????, ?? ? ?????? ???????????? ????
???????
??? ?????????? ?????? ???????? ? ??????????
????????? ??? ????? ??????? ? ?????????? ?
??????? ???????? ????????
3
???? (Charles) ?????? (1857 1936)
1903 ?????? ????-???????????? ????? ?????
?????????? ? ??????????? ?? ???????? ???? ?????
?????? ?????????? ????? ? ????? ? ??????
p, r, ?2
11 ???????????? ????????????? ??????? ??????
????
5 ???????????? ?????????????? ????? (r 0.23) 6
???????????? ?????????? ? ?????????? (r 0.19)
????? ??????? ?????????? ??????? ??????, ? ??
???????????? ??????? ??????, ????? ?????????????
???????????? ??????? ??? ???????????? ???? ?
?????????? ??????.
????? 90 ??? ???? ????? ????? ???????????
4
??? ??????? ?????? ????? (1890-1962)
?????? ?????????? ????? ????????????????? ?
??????? ??????????! ?? ??? ??????? ????????
???????? ????????
??????????? ?????? ???? ?????? ? p0.001 ?????
???????, ??? 10 ????? ? p0.1 ? p0.0008
????????, ????? ? 3 ?????????????
df df df df
?2 5 6 7 8
16 0.0068 0.0138 0.0251 0.0424
17 0.0045 0.0093 0.0174 0.0301
18 0.0029 0.0062 0.0120 0.0212
19 0.0019 0.0042 0.0082 0.0149
20 0.0012 0.0028 0.0056 0.0103
21 0.0008 0.0018 0.0038 0.0071
22 0.0005 0.0012 0.0025 0.0049
23 0.0003 0.0008 0.0017 0.0034
24 0.0002 0.0005 0.0011 0.0023
???????????? ? 0.0025
????? -2ln(0.061)-2ln(0.003)-2ln(0.020) 20.24
df 236
5
??? ??? ?????, ??? ?????? ???????? ???????
?????????? ?????????? ??????? ?? ?????????
????????????
??? ??????? ??????????? ????????
??? ??????????? ???????????? ??????? ????????
???! ?????? ?????
???????????? (??????????????????)
??????? ?????????? ?????-????????????? ??????????
?????????, ??????! ? ????????? ???? 70 ??????
??????????? SNP ????????????? ? ?????????????
(plt0.05)
?????????? - ???? ????!
???????? ????????
6
???????? ???????? (1951)
???????? ????????? ????? ???????!
10 ??????????? (5 ????????? ? 5 ???????)
????????? ? ???
???????? ????????? ???? ???????
5 ????????? 5 ???????
?????? ????????? 3 ?? 4 (75) ????????? 1 ?? 1 (100)
?????? ????????? 0 ?? 1 (0) ????????? 1 ?? 4 (25)
????? 3 ?? 5 (60) 2 ?? 5 (40)
gt
?????? ????????? ? ????????? ???? ??????
(1899), ?????? ??? (1903)
?????????, ??????!
7
??? ?? ?????????! ??? ?????????
?????????? ?????? ???? ?????????????
? ????? ????????????? ????? ??????? ??????? ???
? ???????? ????, ??? ? ????????
????? ??????? ??????? ??????? ??? ? ???????? ?
???????? ????!
?????? ????? ??????? ??? ? ??????????? ????????
(? ?????? ?????? 3/100)
?????????, ??????!
8
???????? ???????? ??? ??????????? ??????????????
??????
????????????? ?????????? ????? ???????????? ?
???????? ???????!
??????????? ?? ???? ? ??????????? ?? ???????
??????????????
???????-?????????? ????? ????
?????????, ??????!
9
????????? ???? ????? ?? ???????? ?????????
??????????? ?? 100 ??????? ?? ????????
6 ?????????
??? ?????????
??? ?????????
????? ??????? ????????? ???????
???????? 100 100?100 0 0
??????????????? 100 100?100 6 0.0006
0 ?? 5 1 ?? 7 2 ?? 9 ..........
??? ?????????? ????? ????????????? ???????
?????????? ??????? ??????? ?????? ?? ?????
?????????
?? ??????? ????? ? ???????????
1 ?? 100 ?????? 0 ?? 100 p0.5 (one-tailed
Fisher)
?? ??????? ?????????
p0.014 (one-tailed Fisher)
6 ?? 10 000 ?????? 0 ?? 10 000
?????? ?????????????, ????????? ????????? ???????
?????????, ?????????? ??? ????????? ? ?????? ?
????? ?? ????? ????? ????????????? ???????
????????? ?????????????? ?????? ????????? ??
????? ?????-????? p0.317
?????????, ??????!
10
???????? ????-??????? (GlassCohen, 70-s)

• ??????? ??????? ???????????. ????????? ??????
  ?? ????????? ?????????? ???? ? ??????, ???????
  ?????? ???? ??????????????? ??????? ???????.

META
Inverse variance method (Glass, 1976)

• ???????, ?????????? ? ????????? ?????????????
  ?????????? ????????????????? ????? ???????, ?????
  ?? ????? ???? ?????????? ???? ? ??????.

????????? Effect Size (Cohen, 1970)
? ???????????, ??? ???????, ????????? ??????
??????????, ? ??????? ????????????????
?????????? ??????????????? ????????????
11
?????????????? ???????? ? ?????? ??????????????
?????????
Effect size ??? ???????? ??????? ? ????????
???????????? ??????????
??????????? ?????????? ??? ???????????? ???????
????????????
?????????????? ?????? ES

Coxen (1970)
t-??????????
F-?????????? (????????????? ????????????? ??????)
??????? ????????????? ??????? ??????? ?
????? ? ? ????????
????? ??????????, ?? ??? ?????????? ????????!
????????????? ?????? (1970)
?????? ES ??????????
????????? 0.2 ???? ???????? ??????? ??? Ngt200
??????? 0.5 ???????? ??????? ??? Ngt32
??????? 0.8 ???????? ??????? ???? ??? N12
12
??????????????????? ?????? ?? ??????? ?? ??????
???????
???????????? ?????????? ?????????? ?? ??????????
??????? ? ?????? ??????????. ????? ????????
??????
????? ???????????? ???, ????????, ?????????
??????
4/?2560.25
2/?64 0.25
1/?16 0.25
???? N t-?????????? ?
1 256 4.0 0.000008
2 64 2.0 0.049
3 16 1.0 0.374
?? ????? ???? ??????? ?????????!
13
??????????????????? ?????? (ES) ?????? ???????
?? ???????? ??????
? ????? ?? ????????????? ?????? ?? ?????????????
????? (ES) ?????
??? ?? ?????? ???, ??? ?? ???????!
? ???????? ???????? ???????? ???? ???? ????
? N0 s0 N1 s1
1 100 1.0?0.3 100 2.0?0.4
2 300 1.0?0.4 300 3.0?0.5
3 25 1.0?0.3 25 2.0?0.4
?x
1
2
1
s01



ES



w
48.0
147.6
11.6
ES?w
13.9
37.7
6.6
4.0
8.7
2.0
3.53
7.85
1.77
3
6.9
1.5
0.283
0.255
0.566
208.2
58.1
?????
?? ???? ????? ??????? ???????????? ??????
? ???? ????? ?????? ???????? ???????????
???????????? ?????? ?? ???? ?????????? ????????
??????
14
????????????? ??????????? ????-??????? Forest
plot
????? ????? ??? ???????? ????????????
??????? ? ?????????????? ???????????
?????? ????? ?????????????? ?????? ???????
Effect size
??????? ??????
15
????????? ????? ?? ???????? ??????? (????????)
??????????????????? ?????? (ES) ??? ????????????
(??????????????) ?????????
????????? ?????? ??????????? ???????? ?
??????????? ?????????
??????? ??????? ???????????? ???????? ??????????
????????-??????? ????????-?????????? ?????????-???
???
??????? ????????????? 2?2
?????????? OR
??? ??????? ? ????????
???????? a b
???? c d
???????


???????
N0ab
N1cd
?????


ORRR1 -
??? ??????? OR, RR gtgt 1 ??? OR, RR ltlt 1 -
??????? ??????
????????? ????? (p1) ? ????????? (p0)
OR ? RR ??? p0, p1lt 0.1
????? ???? ?? ??????, ? ???????? ?
16
FAQ ?????? OR, ? ?? RR ?
?????? ??????? ? ??????? ?????? ??????? ?????????
???????? 99 1 100 0.01 0.99
???? 95 5 100 0.05 0.95
?? ?????????? ????????? ?????? RR
0.05/0.015
?? ???????????? ????????? ?????? RR
0.99/0.951.04
????????? ?????? ? ????? ?????? ????? OR
5?99/95?1 5.21
17
???????? ???????? ??? ????????????? OR
?????????? ???????? ? ??????? ????????
???????
??????? 50 ?? 150 (33.3)
???????? 1 ?? 51 (2)
???????
50 ?? 51 (98)
100 ?? 150 (66.7)
??? ??????
100 ?? 201 (49.8)
101 ?? 201 (49.8)
OR25
OR25
OR0.98
???? ?? ?? ???????????? ????????????? ??
????????, ?? ??????????, ??? ? ????????
?????????? ???????? ?????? ????, ??? ? ??????????
?????????, ??????!
18
??? ????????? OR ? ???????? ????????? ?????????
?????? Mantel Haenszel (1959)
META
a b
c d
??? ??????????? ???????
??????? ??????? ??? ??????
??????? 50 ?? 150 (33.3) 50 ?? 51 (98) 100 ?? 201 (49.8)
???????? 1 ?? 51 (2) 100 ?? 150 (66.7) 101 ?? 201 (49.8)
?????? ???????-???????
50 1
100 50
50 100
1 50
19
????????? ??????? ? ???? ??? ??????????
??????? ? ????-??????? ES w
?????????????? ??????? x1 (????) ?????? x0 (????????)
???????????? ??????? p1 (????) ?????? p0 (????????) OR
??? ??? ??????? ?????????. ????? ???? ????????,
??? w N ?. ?. ??? ???????????
?????? ??????????? ??????, ???? ?????? ?????????!
?? ????? ??????? ????!
20
???????? ???????????? ?????? ? ????-???????
???? ?????????????? ???????????? ???????

• Q-?????????? ??? ????????????? ????????
  ??????? ??? Cochrane Q-test
• ???????????? ??? ?2 ? dfk-1 (k
  ???????).
• ??????? ????????? ??? ? gt 0.1 (?? 0.05!)

??? ??????, ???? ??????? ??????????? ?? ?????????

• I2 - ???? ????????????, ?????????????
  ??????????????? ???????.
• ??? I2 gt 50 ??????? ????????? ?????????????

???? I2 lt 50 , ?? ???????????? ?????? ?????????,
? ??????????? ???????? ???????? ????????
(??????? ? ?????????? ?????????)
? ????? ??????? Q1.05 ??? df2, p0.59
ES
w
? ???????? ???????? ???????? ???? ???? ????
? N0 s0 N1 s1
1 100 1.0?0.3 3 100 2.0?0.4 4.0
2 300 1.0?0.4 6.9 300 3.0?0.5 8.7
3 25 1.0?0.3 1.5 25 2.0?0.4 2.0



0.283
0.255
0.566
48.0
147.6
11.6
21
?????? ? ?????????????? ? ?????????? ?????????
???, ??? ?? ????????? ?? ??? ??? ???
????-?????? ? ?????? ?.?. ?????? ?
?????????????? ?????????
Forest plot
I2 lt 25
I2 gt 50
??? ???? ????? ??????? ?????????. ????????
????????
? ????????? ????????????? ????? ???? ??????
???????. ????????????? ???????? ?? ?????????????.
???????????? ????????? ?????? ??????? ??? ??????
??? fixed model ? ??? random model
? ?????? ?? ?????????? ????????? ??? ???????
???????? ? ????, ?????? ???????? ????
??????????????
DerSimonian and Laird (1986)
22
???????????? ????????? ??? ????-??????? ?????????
??? ????? ??????????
????? ???? ? ???? ?????? ?????????????? ???
????????????
Binary or numerical (continues)?
?????????? ???????? ???????, ?????? ? ??????????
??? ?????? ? ?????????????? ?????????
Fixed effects Mantel-Haenszel
???????? ?????????????? ?????????? Q, I2
Measures of heterogeneity Q and I-squared,
?????????? ???????? ??????? ??? ?????? ??
?????????? ?????????
Random effects DerSimonian-Laird
23
Soft ??? ?????????? OR ? ??????????
????-????????????
???????? ???????????? ??????????? ??????.
????????? ??????????. ???????????? ?
?????????????? ????????. ????????????? ?
????????? ??????? ??? ????????.
???????????? ? ?????????????? ????????. ??????????
??? ? ????????? ??????? ??????? (forest plot,
funnel plot)

• MetaWin, Comprehensive MA, EasyMA
  Commercial

???????????? ????????? ? ??????????? ???????
????-????????
24
?????? ?????? ?? ???????????!
25
??????? ??????????? ?. ??????? (1903)
????????????? ???????? ?????? ????
???????????? OR 95 CI 95 CI
Hospital staffs 0.328 0.209 0.516
Ladysmith Garrison 0.127 0.091 0.179
Methuens column 0.432 0.288 0.649
Single regiments 0.931 0.671 1.290
Army in India 0.575 0.461 0.717
??????? ??????????????!
I2 95.3 ? 50
????????????? ?????? 0.370 0.322 0.425
????????? ?????? 0.397 0.200 0.787
26
? ????? ????? ?? ???? ????????? ????-???????
??????????? ?????????? ?????????
?????? ????-?????? ???????? ????? ????????????
?? ????????? 20 ????

• ?????????? ?????????? ?????????? ?? ?????????
  ???????? ?????????
• - ??????????? ? ??????? ??????
  ???????????????? ???????????
• - ??????????? ? ?????????? ???????????
  ??????? ????????
• - ?????? ?????????? ???? ? ????????????
  ??????

• ?????? ??????? ?????? ??????? ? ?????????
  ????????????
• - ??????? ????? ??? ?????????
• - ??????? ???????????????? ?????
• - ???? ????????????? ???

• ????????????? ???????????? ????????????
  ???????????????????.
• ??????????? PCR-??????????????? ? ???????
  ???????? ???????
• ?????????????? ???????????? (GWAS)

27
??????? ?????? Rind contraversy
Rind, B., Tromovitch, P., Bauserman, R. A
meta-analytic examination of assumed properties
of child sexual abuse using college samples.
Psychological Bulletin, (1998).
American Psychological Association (APA)
??????? ?? ??????? ???????????? ??
????-??????? ??????? Misinformation
concerning child sexual abuse (2001)
????-???????????? ??????????? CSA (Child Sexual
Abuse)
????-?????? 59 ???????????? ??????????? ???????
15 000 ????????? ????????? ???????/????????????
CSA ? ??????????? (18 ???????????????????
???????????)

• ???????????? ????????????? ES ? ??????????????
  ??????

????? ?????????? ????????? (-0.04?0.13)!
11 ??????? ? 37 ?????? ??????? ? ?????????????
???????????? CSA

• ???????? ???????? ???? ?????????? ????????
  ??????? ????

??????? ????????? Dr. Laura Schlessinger
(??????????? ? ??-???)
Meta-analysis is a meaningless technique that
involves putting a bunch of questionable findings
together. I had never heard of a real scientist
using this method. This is a junk science at its
worst!
????????????? ???????

• Rind ? Bauserman ????? ????????????? ?
  ??????????? ????????
• ??????? Paidika, ? ??????? ?????????
  ??????????????????
• ????????????? ? ?????????

??????? ?? ???????, ????? ????????? ??????
???????????? ???? ?????
???????? ?????
2-?????? ??????? ???????? ????????????
???????????, ????? 100 ?????????? ??????????,
???????? APA, ???????????? ? ????? ???????
????????? ???
?????????? ???????!
28
?????? ????-?????? ???????? ????? ????????????
?? ????????? 20 ????

• ?????????? ?????????? ?????????? ?? ?????????
  ???????? ?????????
• - ??????????? ? ??????? ??????
  ???????????????? ???????????
• - ??????????? ? ?????????? ???????????
  ??????? ????????
• - ?????? ?????????? ???? ? ????????????
  ??????

• ?????? ??????? ?????? ??????? ? ?????????
  ????????????
• - ??????? ????? ??? ?????????
• - ??????? ???????????????? ?????
• - ???? ????????????? ???

• ????????????? ???????????? ????????????
  ???????????????????.
• ??????????? PCR-??????????????? ? ???????
  ???????? ???????
• ?????????????? ???????????? (GWAS)

29
????-?????? ??????????, ????????? ?
?????????????? ????????? ?????????
Mobile Phone Use and Risk of Tumors A
Meta-Analysis Seung-Kwon Myung et al. Journal of
Clinical Oncology (2009)
?? 465 ?????????? ???????? 23 ???????????? ????
case-control 12 344 ??????? (??????? ?????) ?
25 572 ????????
???????????? ?????????????? ?????? 8 ?????
????????? ???????? ????????????? ?????? 15
????? ????????? ???????? ?????????????
(????????????) ??????
????? ?????? ?? ???? ??????? ???????,
???????????? ????????? ????????, ??????
????????, ?? ???????????? ?????????
???????? OR0.98 (95CI0.89-1.07) ?? ?????? ??
?????????? ?????????
???????? ???????-??????????? ????????, ??????????
??????????
?????????? ? ???????? ????????????? ?????????
????????? (????? 10 ???) 13 ????? ?????????
???????? ????????????? ?????? OR1.18
(95CI1.04-1.34)
30
????-?????? ?????? ??????? ???????? ???
?????????? ?????? ?????????????? ????? (ELF-EMF)
?????? winner's curse - ??????????? ???????????
?????????????????? ? ????????????? ????????????
?????????!
31
?????????? GSTM1
??? ???????????? ????????????? ??????? (18 ??) ?
???????????? ????????? ? 50
??????? ????????????? ? ???????????????????? ?
?????? ????????????????? ?????????????
? ????? ? ?????????? ???????? ?????????!
32
Chromosomal aberrations under basal conditions
and after treatment with X-ray in human
lymphocytes as related to the GSTM1 genotype
B. Karahalil, S. Sardas, et al. Mut. Res., 515
(2002)
?????????, ?????????????? 1 ?? GSTM1 0/0 gt GSTM1

Assessment of individual sensitivity to ionizing
radiation and DNA repair efficiency in a healthy
population F. Marcona, C. Andreoli, et al. Mut.
Res., 541 (2003)
?????????, ?????????????? 2 ?? GSTM1 0/0 lt GSTM1

33
????-?????? ?????? ???????????????? ????????? ???
??????? ? ????????????? ????????? ?? GSTM1
????????? ????????, ??, ???
??????? ???????? FR1,03?0,02
?????????? ??????? ???????????????? ?????????
??? ????????????? ????????? ?? GSTM1 ??
????????? ? ???????? ???????????? ?0,11
(Z-???? ??? ???????? FR1 )
34
?????? ????-?????? ???????? ????? ????????????
?? ????????? 20 ????

• ?????????? ?????????? ?????????? ?? ?????????
  ???????? ?????????
• - ??????????? ? ??????? ??????
  ???????????????? ???????????
• - ??????????? ? ?????????? ???????????
  ??????? ????????
• - ?????? ?????????? ???? ? ????????????
  ??????

• ?????? ??????? ?????? ??????? ? ?????????
  ????????????
• - ??????? ????? ??? ?????????
• - ??????? ???????????????? ?????
• - ???? ????????????? ???

• ????????????? ???????????? ????????????
  ???????????????????.
• ??????????? PCR-??????????????? ? ???????
  ???????? ???????
• ?????????????? ???????????? (GWAS)

35
???????? ?????? ????-??????? ?????????????
???????????? ???????????? ???? CCR5 ?
???-??????????????
??????????? ???????? CCR5 (??-???????? ?
????????? CD4)
??????? CCR5-?32 ??????? 32 ?.?. (??. 2),
?????????? ? ???????? ???, ????????????
???????????? ???? ? ???-??????????????? (N.
Samson et. al., Nature, 1996)
??????????? ?-?????????
10-25 ?????????? ????????????? ?? ??????? ?32.
?????????? ?? ?? ???? ?? ????????? ?????? ??
???-??????????????
?/? ??????? ?????? ?? ????????? ??? ? ????? w/?
???????? ???????? ????? (?? ? 2 ????)
??????? ????????????? ??????? CCR5-?32 ??????? ????????????? ??????? CCR5-?32
???????? ?????? 14-17
????? ?????? 4-8
??????, ???? 0
36
??????? ??????????? ?? CCR5-?32 ????? ??????????
?? ???-????????????? (?? ?????? 18 ???????)
?????? ? 3 ???????? ?? 18 ??????? ???????????
w/? ? ??? ????, ??? ? ???-
?????? ?????????? ?????????????! ????????????
w/? ???? ??????????? ????? ???- ?? ????? OR?
?????????? ??????? ????????? ?. ?????????
(????), ???. ?.?. ????????? (????? ???)
???? ?????????? ???, ?? ?????? ??????-??????
?????? ?????????? ? ???????????? ½
37
???????????? ???????? ???????????? w/? CCR5
??????????, ?? ?? ?????? OR1.15
CCR5-?32 with WinPepi ??????????
??????? ???? ??????? ??? ????-???????
????-?????? OR RR p / p- ?p p- - p
Unadjusted ?????? (?? ???? ??????) 0.78 0.801 0.027
Mantel-Haenszel ?????? 0.867 (1.15) 0.887 0.016
95-?????. ???????? 0.77 - 0.97 0.81 - 0.98 0.007-0.023
DerSimonian-Laird ?????? 0.858 0.881 0.015
I2, 22.6 24.8 0.0
?????????? ?????????????? (?) 0.131 0.236 0.451
???????? ?????????? ???????? (Fishers two-tailed) 0.014 0.014 0.014
?????? ? ?????????????? ?????????
?????? ?? ?????????? ?????????
?????????????? ?? ???????. ?????? ??? ?????
??????? ?????????
38
Forest plot ??????? ??????????????? ?? ???????
?32 ?? ???? ???-????????????? (OR ? 95CI)
????????? ?? ??????? ??? ?????? ?? ??????????
?????????
??????? ??? ?????? ? ?????????????? ?????????
39
???????, ?????????? ? ??????? ? ????-???????
40
Publication bias ????????????? ??????????
????????? ????, ??? ????????????? (???????)
????????? ????????? ????????????? ? ????????????
????????????
Funnel plot ?????? ??????? ??????????? ??????
- ????? ???????
??? ??????? publication bias ? ????????????
?????, ?????????? ????-?????????
CCR5-?32 funnel plot
?????????? ?????????!
?????????????? ??? ??????? funnel plot -
?????????? ??????? ??????!
41
?????? winner's curse
? ?????? ??????????? ??????? ?????? ????????
?????? ????????????? ??? ????-??????? ???????????
?????? ??????????, ????????, ???? ??? ??????
?????? ?? ????????????
?? ?????????? ???????? ?????, ??????? ????????
??????? ??????????.
19 - ???????? ??????? ??? ?????? ????????
?????????? ? ?????? ?? ???????????
20 ?????????????? ?????????? ?????? ?????????
1 - ??????? ??????? ????????????? ?????? ?
??????????? ???? ?????? (1/200.05)
Eeles et al., Nat. Gen., 2008
????????????? ???????????? ???? ???????? (GWAS)
SNP Discovery 1854 cases/1894 controls Discovery 1854 cases/1894 controls Replication 3268 cases/3354 controls Replication 3268 cases/3354 controls
SNP OR 95CI OR 95CI
rs2660753 1.52 1.30-1.77 1.18 1.06-1.31
rs9364554 1.28 1.16-1.41 1.17 1.08-1.26
rs6465657 1.30 1.19-1.43 1.12 1.05-1.20
rs7920517 1.39 1.27-1.53 1.22 1.14-1.31
rs10993994 1.62 1.47-1.78 1.25 1.17-1.34
rs7931342 1.39 1.23-1.57 1.03 0.94-1.14
gt
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42
????-????-??????
??????? ????????????? ?? ?????????? ????????
?????????? ? ????????????? ????????????
??????????????????? ? ?????? ????????????????
????????????

• ????????????????? ??????????? 10
• ?????????????????? ??????????? 3
• ?????????? 7
• ???????? 4
• ?????? 3
• ???? -7

?? ?????? 50 ????-???????? ????????????
??????????????????? ? ?????? ????????????????
???????????? (J. Ioannidis 2007, 2009)
??????? ??? ????? ?????????? ? ????-??????? ??????????
1 ACE ??????????? 1 6 731
2 MTHFR ?????-?????-?????-????? ????????? 5 729
3 APOE ????????????? ? 5 905
4 GSTM1 ?????????-S-??????????? 3 538
5 DRD3 ???????? ???????? D3 3 65
43
????-?????? ??????????? ?? 40 ???!
??? ??? ????????????? ?????????? ?? ????? ??????
??? ??? ??????? ?????
44
???? ???????,
? ????????? ?????????????? ????????

• ????-?????? ??? ????? ??????!

• ????????? ????-????????????! ???? ?? ??????
  ?????????!

• ????-?????? ?????? ?????????? ???????
  ?????????!

• ????-?????? ??? ????????? ???????? ???
  ??????
• ?? ????????? ???????!

• ????? ??????! ???????????? ??????? ????????
  ?????????
• ???????? ? ????????? ????????????!

????? ??????????? ????? ??????? ?? ????? ?????
www.vigg.ru
45
????????????? ?????????? ???????? OR
?????? ?????????????
3000 ???????????? ????????? ?????????? OR ??????
???????? (100) - ??????? ??????? 0.1 ??????
??????? (100) - ??????? ??????? 0.2
??????????? ? ???????????? ?????? OR ? ???????
?? 30 ???? ????????? ????????!
25
20
15
???????,
10
? ???? ???? ? ????? ???????? 50 ???????? OR
5
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
??????? ???????? OR2.92
OR
???????? ???????? OR2.25