Vulnerability of Food Systems GECAFS approach

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Vulnerability of Food Systems GECAFS approach

• Polly Ericksen
• GECAFS Science Officer
• 17 May 2006

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GECAFS Vision
A food-secure future for those most vulnerable to
environmental stress.
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Food Security

• exists when all people, at all times, have
  physical and economic access to sufficient, safe,
  and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs
  and food preferences for an active and healthy
  life.
• (definition from the World Food Summit)
• is determined by multiple factors.

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Components of Food Security Key Elements
FOOD UTILISATION
FOOD ACCESS

• Affordability
• Allocation
• Preference

• Nutritional Value
• Social Value
• Food Safety

FOOD AVAILABILITY

• Production
• Distribution
• Exchange

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• Food security is a function of multiple stresses

Misselhorn 2005 Global Environmental Change
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Generally food systems comprise a number of human
activities involved in..

• Producing food
• Processing packaging food
• Distribution retailing food
• Consuming food

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Trends / transformations in food systems

• On the production side yield growth,
  technology advances and concentration,
  smallholder vs large farms, env. concerns
• Processing, packing and distribution long,
  involved food chains, standardization,
  concentration and globalization
• Consumption price declines, dietary transition,
  urbanization, CNCDs, etc.

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Trends in Food Systems
Traditional Food Systems Modern Food Systems
Employment in food sector In production of raw commodities In food manufacturing and retail
Supply Chain Short Long with many food miles and lots of nodes
Typical food consumed Basic staples Processed food with a brand name More animal products
Purchased food bought from Small, local shop or market Large supermarket chain
Nutritional issues Under-nutrition Chronic dietary diseases
Main source of national food shocks Poor rains production shocks International price and trade problems
Main source of household food shocks Poor rains production shocks Income shocks leading to food poverty
Environmental concerns Soil degradation, land clearing Nutrient loading, chemical runoff, water demands, energy requirements
Source Adapted from Maxwell and Slater, 2004.
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Global Environmental Change Changes in the
biogeophysical environment caused or strongly
influenced by human activities
For example changes in
Land cover soils Atmospheric composition
Climate variability means Water availability
quality
Nitrogen availability cycling Biodiversity Sea
currents salinity Sea level
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Why a systems approach?

• Lends a generic view food systems underpin food
  security but in multiple ways
• Link multiple activities to multiple outcomes
• Incorporate dynamism and feedbacks
• Identify key processes in spite of the complexity
• Allow for structure (determinism) and agency

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GEC Food System Interactions
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Food Systems Research integrates Food System
Activities and Outcomes
Food System ACTIVITIES Producing food natural
resources, inputs, technology Processing
packaging food raw materials, standards,
consumer demand Distributing retailing food
marketing, advertising, trade Consuming food
preparation, consumption
Food System OUTCOMES Contributing to
Source Ericksen, P. (2006) Conceptualizing Food
Systems for GEC Research (in prep for Food Policy)
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Evaluating affordability of food
Characteristics of food security outcome for Site X Major Determinants of food security outcome Linked to FS Activity? Or Other Outcome?
Staple grains are cheap if imported expensive if local. Costs of local production higher than foreign. Determined primarily by the activities under Producing.
Fruits and vegetables cheap and available in rural areas. Increasing numbers of farmers moving into horticulture so is surplus. Determined primarily by the activities under Producing.
Fish and beef are luxury foods. Chicken is every day food in urban areas. Fish increasingly scarce because waters over-fished. Beef is for the export market. Poultry is a new growth sector and so is available everywhere. Processing centered near urban areas. Incomes differences between urban and rural areas important (social welfare). Aquatic systems reaching their threshold (natural capital). Beef and chicken price and availability determined by Producing, Processing and Retailing.
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Tradeoffs among outcomes for two different food
systems
Food available from local production
Food available from local production
Income
Biodiversity
Biodiversity
Fresh water for aquatic systems
Nutrient stocks in soils
Food affordable
(after de Fries et al 2005)
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Vulnerability

• Vulnerability implies HARM or a negative
  consequence from which is difficult to recover
• Involves social values
• Function of exposure to hazards, sensitivity AND
  social dimensions of coping capacity (internal
  and external)
• Coping capacity includes access to assets,
  diversity of options, institutional, policy and
  market structures
• Vulnerability is dynamic and differential

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Global environmental change

• Adds to existing stresses
• Has previously been addressed in terms of single
  impacts, primarily production
• Has various interactions with food systems
  (activities and outcomes)
• Production to consumption

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GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE (GEC) Change in type,
frequency magnitude of environmental threats
Capacity to cope with /or recover from GEC
FOOD SYSTEM SECURITY / VULNERABILITY
Exposure to GEC
SOCIETAL CHANGE Change in institutions, resource
accessibility, economic conditions, etc.
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Adaptive capacity social

• Social ability or capacity or opportunity to
  modify processes or characteristics so as to
  better cope with existing or anticipated external
  stresses
• Function of assets
• Access to them
• Ability to take action/ change behavior

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Adaptive capacity- ecological

• Ecological resilience
• How much shock system can take without change
• Functional attributes
• Ability to self-organize
• Ability to adapt and learn
• Often determined by slow variables, such as
  reservoirs of nutrients, ecosystem diversity or
  heterogeneity

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Vulnerability of food systems

• Any component can be vulnerable
• Multiple expressions
• Arises through activities/ processes
• May be masked if we only look at outcomes
• Is fundamentally about systems NOT delivering
  food security in an equitable and sustainable
  manner
• Feedbacks link today to the future

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Potential determinants food system vulnerability

• Low diversity in assets or entitlements
• Inequity in access to resources and capacity to
  take action
• Institutional weaknesses/ inflexible structures
• Market failures
• Distance between production and consumption
• Cross-scale interactions leading to surprise
• Policy failures

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Integrating FS Vulnerability Research examples
for food utilisation water availability
Key determinant Determinant characteristics Sensitivity to water availability Vulnerability to water availability
NUTRITIONAL VALUE  
Food diversity Rice, lentil, milk Cows need four months rain to produce milk High Mild drought makes milk scarce as no dairy market
Primary protein Lentils Lentils need two months rain Low Severe drought makes lentils scarce but buffered by market
SOCIAL VALUE Community celebrations cohesion Special foods for key celebrations, e.g. onset of monsoon Increased variability of monsoon disrupts and diminishes role of celebrations Medium Significance of celebration foods declines leading to reduced social cohesion
Kinship / Etiquette Luxury foods (e.g. eggs) for guests NA NA
FOOD SAFTEY Storage conditions Low-quality, water-pervious baskets Baskets can get damp / flood High Toxic build-up (e.g. aflotoxins) in stored food
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Integrating FS Vulnerability Research in the
IGP example for Nutritional Value component of
Food Utilisation
Determinant food diversity milk
Determinant principal protein lentil
GEC Issue Increased incidence of drought
GEC Issue Increased incidence of drought
FS VULNERABILITY RE FOOD DIVERSITY HIGH
Exp. to GEC
FS VULNERABILITY RE PRINCIPAL PROTEIN LOW
Exp. to GEC
Cap. to cope
Cap. to cope
Socec. Issue Strong lentil market
Socec. Issue Weak dairy market
Source Multi-authored analysis of IGP food
system vulnerability to GEC. GECAFS Report. In
prep.
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What about scale?

• It influences who / what is vulnerable
• Institutions, governance and policies vary with/
  depend upon it
• Cross-scale interactions create heterogeneity and
  SURPRISE (and conflict)
• Tradeoffs fundamentally are across space and time
• Subsidies, gains versus costs