What is

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What is Global Environmental Change? Changes in
the biogeophysical environment caused or strongly
influenced by human activities
For example changes in
Land cover soils Atmospheric composition
Climate variability means Water availability
quality
Nitrogen availability cycling Biodiversity Sea
currents salinity Sea level
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• Some examples of
• human activities leading to GEC

Agricultural intensification Freshwater
extraction Fisheries overexploitation Waste
production
Deforestation Fossil fuel consumption
Urbanisation Land reclamation
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Fundamental Questions

• How will Global Environmental Change affect the
  vulnerability of food systems in different
  regions?
• How might food systems be adapted to cope with
  GEC so as to enhance food security?
• What would be the consequences of adaptation
  options for environmental and socioeconomic
  conditions?

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GECAFS Goal
To determine strategies to cope with the impacts
of GEC on food systems and to assess the
environmental and socioeconomic consequences of
adaptive responses aimed at improving food
security.
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What isFood Security?

• A state or condition when all people, at all
  times, have physical and economic access to
  sufficient, safe, and nutritious food to meet
  their dietary needs and food preferences for an
  active and healthy life.
• (definition from the World Food Summit, 1996)

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Change of research scope from agronomy
Crop Stands
Production Systems
Food Systems
Farming Systems
Crop Productivity
Food Production
Food Security
How will GEC affect farm regional production?
How will GEC affect crop yield?
How will GEC affect food security?
Key questions

• Relations to soil N and water
• Micronutrients
• Stand establishment
• Losses to weeds
• Mechanistic coupling of pests and diseases
• Simulation of quality

• Linking sole crop models
• Farm-level databases including management
  variables
• Inclusion of other crops, livestock fisheries,
  etc
• Using model outputs to analyse system performance

• Food Systems and vulnerability concepts
• Regional-level scenarios
• Integrated socioeconomic-biophysical models
• Feedbacks of management scenarios to
  socioeconomic and environmental conditions

Key Research Issues
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GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE (GEC) Change in type,
frequency magnitude of environmental threats
FOOD SYSTEM SECURITY / VULNERABILITY
Exposure to GEC
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GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE (GEC) Change in type,
frequency magnitude of environmental threats
Capacity to cope with /or recover from GEC
FOOD SYSTEM SECURITY / VULNERABILITY
Exposure to GEC
SOCIETAL CHANGE Change in institutions, resource
accessibility, economic conditions, etc.
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GECAFS Research Approaches
I. Conceptual methodological research on
generic topics based on science and policy issues
identified in regional projects.
II. Policy-relevant research at regional-level on
impacts, adaptation and feedbacks based on
improved conceptual understanding and methods.

• Food Systems Concepts
• Vulnerability Concepts
• Scenario Construction
• Decision Support

• Indo-Gangetic Plain
• Caribbean
• Southern Africa
• Others?

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Research Approaches 1 conceptual methodological
research
Food Systems, to improve understanding of the
interactions between food systems and
GEC Vulnerability, to integrate social and
natural science concepts of the vulnerability of
food systems to GEC Scenarios, to construct
plausible futures of socioeconomic and
environmental conditions for food system
analyses Decision Support, to improve dialogue
between scientists and policy-makers on the
interactions between food security and environment
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Research Approaches 2 conceptual and
methodological research integrated with regional
studies
Caribbean
Indo-Gangetic Plain
Key Policy Issues Food security and
self-sufficiency Trade policies and
competitiveness Exporting quality produce
processed products Poverty in rural communities
Main GEC Issues Climate variability extreme
events Water availability Land degradation Sea
currents level
Main GEC Issues Climate variability Glacier and
snow melt Water availability quality Nitrogen
availability cycling GHG emissions
Key Policy Issues Increased agric.
production Limiting env. degradation Improved
socioecon. conditions Reduced labour migration
Southern Africa
Main GEC Issues Climate variability
ENSO Climate mean values Water availability
quality Land degradation Biodiversity loss
Key Policy Issues Food security and
self-sufficiency Regional integration and
trade Rural infrastructure and market
access Disaster response and safety nets
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GECAFS Key Points

• Food systems, not only food production or
  agriculture
• GEC, not just climate change
• GEC in the context of socioeconomic change, not
  in isolation
• Management and policy options, not predictions
• Participatory decision making, not just research
  outputs
• Regional scale, not global or household/plot
• Interdisciplinary, not disciplinary networks