TAIWAN INDEPENDENCE

1
SCENARIOS FOR CROSS-STRAIT RELATIONS I. PEACEFUL
OUTCOME
PRE-CONDITIONS
IMPLICATIONS
TAIWAN INDEPENDENCE
STATUS QUO
NEGOTIATED REUNIFICATION
Unilateral
Negotiated
Authoritarian China
Democratic China
.Taiwan afraid of consequences of declaring
independence . China afraid of risks of assault
on Taiwan . US remains engaged, increases
arms sales to Taiwan
. China weak, divided . Major toughening of
US policy vs China
. Chinese democratization . Chinese economic,
military decline
. China liberalizes politically . Taiwan
agrees to reunify with democratic mainland
. Taiwan coerced by superior Chinese
military force . Latter also intimidates US
. Regime stabilized, self-confident .
Finlandization . Growing Chinese hegemony
Sino-Jap. Tensions . US discredited . Cold
peace efforts to balanceChina
. Regime crisis? . Temporary respite
only? . Tense divided? . Deep engagement .
New Cold War? . Global organizations
paralysed?
. Stable cuddly . Democratic secure .
Greater Chinese (vs East Asian) Union .
Diminishes . One world (Fukuyama)
. Risk of instability? . Relatively secure vs
China . Détente, closer integration .
Diminishes . Incr. Reglization tripolar
world
. Continuity . Permanent nervousness .
Unstable, only loose integration . Remains
central . Fluctuating, but manageable
tensions US primacy
CHINA
TAIWAN
E ASIA
US ROLE
WORLD