Climate Change Some Critical Biological Consequences

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Climate Change Some Critical Biological
Consequences

• Alan Journet
• Department of Biology Environmental Science
  Program Southeast Missouri State University
• E-mail ajournet_at_semo.eduWeb
  http//cstl-csm.semo.edu/journet
• Whats New?

2
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC

• AR-4 Fourth Assessment Report Feb 2007
• Warming of the climate system is unequivocal.
• Observed increase in globally temperatures since
  the mid 20th century is very likely due to the
  observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas
  concentrations. Very likely gt 90
• There is very high confidence that the net effect
  of human activities since 1750 has been a
  radiative forcing of 1.6 Wm2. Very High
  Confidence gt 90

3
Global Temperatures 1880 2008Goddard Institute
for Space Studies
IPCC 2007 11 of the last 12 years are among
twelve hottest on record
The ten warmest years occurred within the 12-year
period 1997-2008.
http//data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2008/
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Carbon Dioxide in the Future
There are severalscenarios.
Without adequate responsethe future could be
bleak.
http//maps.grida.no/go/graphic/past_and_future_CO
2_concentrations
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Future Temperature Range
There is much doubt depends on what we do.
The last Ice Age (20,000YBP) How much colder
was it?
Like a Cancer diagnosis We know the disease
The prognosis dependson what we do.
http//epa.gov/climatechange/science/futuretc.html
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Minimum Arctic Sea Ice
1979
http//www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/
2003/1023esuice.html
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Minimum Arctic Sea Ice
2003
Greenland
Canada
Data U.S. Defense Meteorological Satellite
Program (DMSP) Special Sensor Microwave Imager
(SSMI). Credit NASA
http//www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/
2003/1023esuice.html
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September 2008 NASA's Aqua satellite
Arctic perennial sea ice has been decreasing at a
rate of 9 per decade.
If Greenland ice cap totally melts ? 20 ft sea
level rise
http//www.cbc.ca/technology/story/2008/09/10/ice-
passage.html
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Polar Bear Ursus maritimus
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Al Gores An Inconvenient Truth
Winter on frozen ice flows feeding on seals.
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Gives the concept of Ice Fishing a whole new
meaning
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Winter on ice flows feeding on seals that come to
ice holes
Spring Summer ice melts bears move to land
SummerMaintain themselves and nourish cubs off
the winter fat
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Summer on land giving birth
http//www.alaskastock.com/resultsframe.asp?gs1t
xtkeys1PolarBeartitlePolar20Bear20pictures2
0-20photos20of20Polar20Bears20by20Alaska20S
tock20Images
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Winter on ice flows feeding on seals that come to
ice holes
Spring Summer ice melts bears move to land
Fall / Autumn return to Ice again
SummerMaintain themselves and nourish cubs off
the winter fat
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http//www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2007/mar/04/
climatechange.activists
Because ice flows are melting feeding
habitatis diminishing.
Bears cannot find sufficient ice drown while
searching do not fatten enough tosurvive
summer More bears are seen near human
habitations searchingfor food.
http//www.alaskastock.com/resultsframe.asp?gs1t
xtkeys1PolarBeartitlePolar20Bear20pictures2
0-20photos20of20Polar20Bears20by20Alaska20S
tock20Images
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Finally Definitive, Irrefutable, Confirmation
of Global Warming
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Overall Regional Trends
http//www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/wg1/fig2-9.htm
While global average increases, some areas
decrease.
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20th C Rainfall PatternsGores An Inconvenient
Truth
Note some areas suffer increased precipitation,
(i.e. floods) others decreased precipitation
(i.e. droughts).
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Biomes?

• The name biologically given to the broad
  assemblages of plants and animals with which we
  are familiar
• ??????
• Arrayed around the U.S. and the world.

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Biomes of the U.S.
Sierra Mtn.EvergreenForests
TransitionalConiferous Forests
Grasslands
Rocky Mtn. EvergreenForests
EasternDeciduousForests
Deserts
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What Determines These Biomes?

• Ave.Temperature.
• Ave. Rainfall.

X
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U.S. Biomes
U.S. Soils
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So what, you might ask?
Biomes of the world.
These control the agricultural and forestry
potential of our land
Not only do these represent whereour flora and
fauna livebut
http//soils.usda.gov/use/worldsoils/mapindex/biom
es.html
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While temp. and ppt. patterns can shift, soils
are stuck.
http//soils.usda.gov/use/worldsoils/mapindex/biom
es.html
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Crop Production Climate

• Just like natural biomes, crops are grown under
  optimal climatic conditions temperature
  precipitation.
• Rule of Thumbeach 10C temp. increase ? 10 crop
  yield reduction.
• Crops cannot just move north.
• Corn currently grows in Iowa, wheat in Kansas,
• Not only because of ideal climate which can
  move north,
• but also
• because of ideal soils and photoperiod which
  cannot move north.
• Corn is a water intensive crop.

Brown L.R., 2006 Plan B 2.0 Rescuing a Planet
Under Stress and a Civilization in Trouble. W.W.
Norton, Co. N.Y. London 365 pp.
Sharon Begley 2008 Heat Your Vegetables Newsweek
May 5, p. 48
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How Do Organisms Respond to Climatic Temperature
Increases?

• Temperature Relationships
• Ectotherms obtain heat from environment.
• Endotherms generate their own heat from
  metabolic processes.

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Ectotherms cold-blooded creatures are
temperature dependent.
Ambient temp,body temp, and metabolic
rate relationships of a typicalEctotherm.
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The Consequence, for example..
Cabbage white caterpillar, Pieris
rapae,development is temperaturedependent.
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Cabbage white caterpillar, Pieris
rapae, requires 174day degrees above
10.5oC. At 11.5oC takes 174 days At 12.5oC
takes 87 days
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Consequences
As planet warms they move
And to HigherElevations
1/3
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For plant development the same principles apply
growth rate is temperature dependent
But, for plants and animals average
temperature may be less critical than seasonal
extremes.
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SaguaroCereus giganteus -Northern limit
of distribution is where a day without
thawing occurs. Can withstand a night of
freezing,but must thaw next day.
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Closed circlesat least 0.5 days w/o thawing
Open Circles No days w/o thawing
ARIZONA
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Range Adjustment -Bay Checkerspot
butterflyEuphydryas editha bayensis
Threatened west coast species Elimination of
populations at southern end of range has shifted
mean location north 92 km.
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Vector Anopheles mosquitoes Limitations Cooler
seasons (Plasmodium falciparum cannot complete
growth cycle below 20oC (68oF) With global
warming ? higher altitudes and latitudes
From Melanie Dow,BI489, Fall 2008
http//maps.grida.no/library/files/climate_change_
and_malaria_scenario_for_2050.jpg
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Bark beetle damage
Millions of acres in Alaska and B.C.The insect
was previously slowed by cold winters.

• In addition,
• Drought stresses trees
• But, tree stress response often involves
• an increased free amino acid pool in cells
• ?making foliage more nutritious
• enhances insect development rate
• exacerbates outbreak

Gores An Inconvenient Truth
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Plants and Insect Herbivores

• Elevated CO2
• Lower quality food.
• Lower herbivore performance.
• Increased consumption.
• Increased pesticide use?

Courtesy John Landosky, University of
Missouri- St. Louis
38
Speaking of elevated CO2

• Have you heard the one about how increasing CO2
  will enhance agriculture
• Forgets the Law of the Minimum
• that plants are generally N, P, K limited.
• Also
• If any plants respond to CO2
• Its not the crops..its the weeds
• So most likely result would be
• More herbicides.

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Distribution of Yellow birch Betula
alleghaniensis follows the 2000/5300 DEGD lines
Too few dd
Back To Temperature And the Degree Day
Phenomenon
Too hot
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Lets Take A Trip Backwards
18,000 - 20,000
Over the last2 millions years4 glaciations have
occurred
170,000 120,000
480,000 230,000
800,000 600,000
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Most recent Wisconsin
Beringian Land Bridge
20,000 years ago YA or YBP
X- Cape Girardeau
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18,000 BP
Ken McCarty
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Tree dispersal since last ice age20,000 ybp
Molles 2002 Ecology
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Changing U.S Growth Cold Hardiness Zones
http//www.arborday.org/media/map_change.cfm
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What About the Future?
Tree species are limited by climatic conditions
A common tree here now but MO may no longer
be in range
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Future climatic pattern
Paul Nelson MNRC 2009
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Do Endotherms Respond?

• Ectotherms generally fluctuate with external
  temperatures
• But
• Endotherms generate their own heat.
• Are they climate dependent?

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Vampire Bats
The common vampire bat Desmodus rotundusN.
limit is mean January isotherm of 10oC
From Mike Robins,BI489, Fall 2008
http//www.arkive.org/media/F24D1381-854B-492C-A82
E-1AF761A3246E/Presentation.Large/photo.jpg
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Common vampire bat Desmodus rotundus
Several Years Ago
10oC isotherm
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Vampire BatDesmodus rotundas
More recently
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Virginia OpossumDidelphis virginiana
A Tropical Species

• Can maintain body temp of 340C in ambiental temp
  ? -70C.
• At -100C can only maintain body temp. for 20
  minutes

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Nine-Banded ArmadilloDasypus novemcinctus
A Tropical Species

• Northern limit
• Mean January temperature gt 20C.
• lt 24 annual freeze-days.
• At least 38 cm annual precipitation.
• Inc. temp ? expand range N.

http//www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j
.1365-2699.1996.tb00024.x
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Armadillo Cont.
Predicted range expansion of nine-banded armadillo
https//www.msu.edu/nixonjos/armadillo/expansion.
html
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Whats Happening at Yosemite National Park?
Mammalogist/ Ecologist Joseph Grinnell and
colleagues studied area in early 20th
C. Recently U.C. Berkeley emeritus Professor Jim
Patton returned to the area and undertook repeat
sampling.
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https//exchange.semo.edu/exchange/ajournet/Inbox/
RE20Science20article20on20Yosemite20Mammal2
0shifts.EML/261.pdf/C58EA28C-18C0-4a97-9AF2-036E93
DDAFB3/261.pdf?attach1
28 Species
Green Significant Expansion Red Significant
Contraction
Upward relocation can occur until they run out of
real estate.
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Eastern Phoebe Sayornis phoebe,limited by
average conditionsthe 4oC isotherm
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The 4oC isotherm, with range deviations shaded.
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Missouri Annual Average Temperature (1895-2006)
1938
1921
1954
1931
1946
1904
1924
1917
1979
1895
Warm Period
Cool Period
Courtesy Pat Guinan, University of Missouri-
Columbia
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Missouris Future
Higher Average Temperature w/o more rain ? ?
Courtesy Pat Guinan, University of Missouri-
Columbia
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Climatically - as goes Illinois so goes
Missouri.
Now
By 2030summer
By 2030winter
By 2095 winter
By 2095 summer
2/3
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Potential Climate Change Consequences for Missouri

• Increased CO2 ? More Biomass
• Higher Temperature Drought More Biomass ?
• More Fire

Courtesy Modified from Tim Nigh, Missouri
Department of Conservation
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Current
Climate Change
Very Low
Low
Medium
High
Very High
Woodland Potential This will likely - increase
in Hilly, Rugged and Floodplain Landscapes This
will likely - decrease in higher, flatter, Upland
Prairie Plains Landscapes
Courtesy Tim Nigh, Missouri Department of
Conservation
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Very Low
Low
Medium
High
Very High
Prairie Potential This will likely - increases
in all Landscapes moving from Upland Flats and
Dissected Plains into adjacent Hills
Courtesy Tim Nigh, Missouri Department of
Conservation
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-Moist Climate Change
Pine-Oak Woodland Ecosystem Dispersal Under
Warm-Dry Climate Change
Increase Prevalence within Current
Distribution Expand its Range
Underline Climatic conditions but again, can
communities relocate?
Courtesy Tim Nigh, Missouri Department of
Conservation
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Range ShiftClimate Change and the American
goldfinch
If floral habitats shift North also, presumably
will fauna
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Wetland habitat loss / alteration
BIRD PROBLEMS
Particularly for wetland speciespermanent
residents
Courtesy Bill Eddleman, Southeast Missouri State
University
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or migrants
Courtesy Bill Eddleman, Southeast Missouri State
University
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Asynchronous Migrant Arrival and Food Availability

• Migrants often respond to photoperiod but
• Insect food at nesting location responds to
  day-degrees.so food surge is earlier and
  precedes nesting.

Courtesy Bill Eddleman, Southeast Missouri State
University
69
Bird Behavior Gores An Inconvenient Truth
Historical Pattern1980
Current Pattern
Egg Hatch
Caterpillars
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NWF-ABC Report and Model(Developed by Jeff Price)
Summer ContractionsTufted titmouseWhite-breaste
d nuthatch 7 others
The Birdwatchers Guide to Global Warming
Summer Losses Chickadees House WrenAmerican
GoldfinchIndigo buntingScarlet tanagerSummer
tanager26 others
Summer GainsCactus wrenBlack-headed grosbeak
6 others
Summer ExpansionScissor-tailed
flycatcherPainted buntingBlue
grosbeakGreat-tailed grackle 9 others
http//www.abcbirds.org/newsandreports/globalwarmi
ng/Missouri.pdf
Courtesy Bill Eddleman, Southeast Missouri State
University
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HerpetofaunaGeneral patterns of response

• Range shifts
• Changes in developmental rate
• Behavioral or morphological changes
• Shifts in genetic frequencies

Courtesy Bethany Williams, University of
Missouri, Columbia
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Amphibians
Reptiles

• Desiccate easily
• Shell-less eggs laid in water or damp places
• Many depend on ephemeral wetlands

• Resist desiccation
• Eggs with leathery shell to reduce water loss
• For some, sex of offspring depends on incubation
  temperature

Courtesy Bethany Williams, University of
Missouri, Columbia
73
Wetland hydroperiod

• \Importance of temporary waters
• Intermediate hydroperiods best
• Early drying may result in zero recruitment

Courtesy Bethany Williams, University of
Missouri, Columbia
74
Temperature-dependentsex determination

• Sex ratios of turtles can be highly correlated
  with air temperatures (Janzen 1994)
• Most nests produce a single sex
• Eggs gt 30oC ? females lt 30oC ? males
• Behavioral or physiological compensation?
• Nest site selection and phenology (Doody et al.
  2006, Ewert et al. 2005)
• Change in pivotal temperatures (Ewert et al.
  2005, but not Doody et al. 2006)

Courtesy Bethany Williams, University of
Missouri, Columbia
75
Carbon Dioxide and the Oceans
Atmosphere
CO2
CO2
CO2
Fossil Fuel Combustion
Vegetation
Oceans
H2O CO2 ? H2CO3 ? H HCO3 Water
Carbon dioxide ? carbonic acid
Half the CO2 released since 1750 has ended up
here
From Stephanie Long,BI489, Fall 2008
http//earthtrends.wri.org/updates/node/245
76
Acidification of the Oceans
NOTE A 0.1 drop in pH doubling of H
http//earthtrends.wri.org/updates/node/245
From Stephanie Long,BI489, Fall 2008
77
Past, Present and Future?
First point
http//earthtrends.wri.org/updates/node/245
From Stephanie Long,BI489, Fall 2008
78
At pH 7.8 Clownfish become unable to orient and
locate habitat.
Munday et al (2009) PNAC.
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What else?

• Marine Calcifiers (create shell or skeleton out
  of calcium carbonate)
• Mollusks
• Crustaceans
• Reef-forming Corals
• Some Algae
• Some Phytoplankton

From Stephanie Long,BI489, Fall 2008
80
Obstacles for Marine Calcifiers - 1

• Carbonic Acid releases Hydrogen ions (bad)
• Carbonate Ion binds with Hydrogen ? becomes
  unavailable.
• Shell-building organisms can not use this ion for
  synthesis

Krill
From Stephanie Long,BI489, Fall 2008
81
Obstacles for Marine Calcifiers - 2
Critical in many food chains

• Lowered pH
• Formed shells more likely to dissolve.
• Lower waters naturally more acidic.

From Stephanie Long,BI489, Fall 2008
82
Acidosis
Obstacles for Marine Calcifiers - 3

• Acidosis build-up of carbonic acid in body
  fluids
• Disrupts growth, respiration, reproduction.
• Affects Fish, squid, and countless other organisms

From Stephanie Long,BI489, Fall 2008
83
Loss of Habitat

• Many Marine Calcifiers provide shelter for other
  oceanic organisms.

http//valleasoleado.com/assets/images/coral_reef_
5.jpg
From Stephanie Long,BI489, Fall 2008
http//buy.tickets.streamintech.com/admin/EventIma
ges/CoralReef3.jpg
84
Doesnt just disrupt the Ocean
Terrestrial
From Stephanie Long,BI489, Fall 2008
Marine
http//www.absc.usgs.gov/research/seabird_foragefi
sh/marinehabitat/home.html
85
Healthy Coral
From Travis Holland,BI489, Fall 2008
86
Coral Growth factors
From Travis Holland,BI489, Fall 2008

• Nutrients
• Salinity
• Irradiance
• Turbidity
• Sedimentation
• Temperature
• pH
• Calcium Carbonate Saturation

Like swamps wetlands along rivers coral reefs
are oceanic nurseries.
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Coral BleachingProgression with time
From Travis Holland,BI489, Fall 2008
88
Bleached Coral
From Travis Holland,BI489, Fall 2008
A marine desert
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Biological Consequences of Climate Change

• I hope I have convinced you of one point
• The potential biological consequences are NOT
  trivial.
• A Last Thought
• Risk (f)
• Risk (f) Probability
• Risk (f) Probability Severity

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We Have Choices..
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Southeast Green Coalition
Southeast Missouri Climate Protection
InitiativeSEMOCPI Climate Change Educational
Programs
TheEnd