Climate Change Potential Biological Consequences

1
Climate Change Potential Biological Consequences

• Alan Journet
• Department of Biology Environmental Science
  Program Southeast Missouri State University
• E-mail ajournet_at_semo.eduWeb
  http//cstl-csm.semo.edu/journet
• Whats New?

2
Minimum Arctic Sea Ice
1979
http//www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/
2003/1023esuice.html
3
Minimum Arctic Sea Ice
2003
Greenland
Canada
Data U.S. Defense Meteorological Satellite
Program (DMSP) Special Sensor Microwave Imager
(SSMI). Credit NASA
http//www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/
2003/1023esuice.html
4
September 2008 NASA's Aqua satellite
Arctic perennial sea ice has been decreasing at a
rate of 9 per decade.
If Greenland ice cap totally melts ? 20 ft sea
level rise
http//www.cbc.ca/technology/story/2008/09/10/ice-
passage.html
5
http//nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_im
ages/N_timeseries.png
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Al Gores An Inconvenient Truth
Polar Bears
Winter on frozen ice flows feeding on seals.
7
Gives the concept of Ice Fishing a whole new
meaning
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Polar Bears
Winter on ice flows feeding on seals that come to
ice holes
Spring Summer ice melts bears move to land
SummerMaintain themselves and nourish cubs off
the winter fat
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Summer on land giving birth
http//www.alaskastock.com/resultsframe.asp?gs1t
xtkeys1PolarBeartitlePolar20Bear20pictures2
0-20photos20of20Polar20Bears20by20Alaska20S
tock20Images
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Polar Bears
Winter on ice flows feeding on seals that come to
ice holes
Spring Summer ice melts bears move to land
Fall / Autumn return to Ice again
SummerMaintain themselves and nourish cubs off
the winter fat
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http//www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2007/mar/04/
climatechange.activists
Because ice flows are melting feeding
habitatis diminishing.
Bears cannot find sufficient ice drown while
searching, do not fatten enough tosurvive
summer, More bears are seen near human
habitations searchingfor food.
http//www.alaskastock.com/resultsframe.asp?gs1t
xtkeys1PolarBeartitlePolar20Bear20pictures2
0-20photos20of20Polar20Bears20by20Alaska20S
tock20Images
12
Global Temperatures 1880 2005Goddard Institute
for Space Studies
IPCC 2007 11 of the last 12 years are among
twelve hottest on record
BUT WHY?
http//data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2005/
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The Keeling Curve 1958 - 2008
Photosynthesis gtRespiration
Respiration
1700s 275 ppm
http//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keeling_Curve
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http//www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/a
r4-wg1-spm.pdf
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Other Anthropogenic Gases
METHANE Fossil fuel production Livestock Rice
cultivation Burning biomass wood etc. Waste
management
CH4
But CO2 is not the only gas increasing since
1750
So what, you may ask?
To answer that a little physical detour is
needed
N2O
NOxFossil fuel combustion Fertilizers Nitrogen
fixing plants
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The Greenhouse Effect
And your car as well.
Why the glasshouse heats up
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IT ALL STARTS WITH INCOMING SOLAR RADIATION
Higherenergy

• The atmosphere absorbs some of the incoming
  solar radiation
• Ozone is especially important.

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What Happens to this Radiation?
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The Actual Greenhouse Effect
Solar light rays pass through glass.
Solar rays hit surfaces ? turn to infra red
heat ? absorbed ? radiated back as heat.
Glass is barrier to heat radiation.
Protected from convection currents i.e wind
the greenhouse interior heats up.
This is why your car gets unbearably hot in the
parking lot during summer.
A decent starting point or model but not
totally parallel.
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The Atmospheric GreenhouseEffect"
NOTE Problem is in loweratmosphere which is
where we live
Infra-red heat
Gases in loweratmosphere absorbthe heat and
retain it does not escape into space as
readily.
Visible light
Earth
Current ave. temp app 15oC or 59oF
Warming
Warming
Without these gases temp -150C to -300C
Cooling
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Positive and Negative Atmospheric
CO2
N2O
CH4
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400,000 years of CO2
Nearly ? today
http//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming
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400,000 years of CO2
and last 1000 years
http//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming
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The CO2 / Temp Pattern
1940-1970Slight Cooling
Temperature
Carbon dioxide
Aerosols releasedafter WWII
http//www.globalchange.umich.edu/globalchange1/cu
rrent/lectures/samson/climate_patterns/
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Carbon dioxide now and futureAl Gores An
Inconvenient Truth
CO2 Possible Future
600
CO2 Now
If the CO2 ?Temperaturerelationship holds, what
will the temperature be?
We can nowgo back 650,000years
Temperature Now
300,000
200,000
100,000
Now
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Finally Definitive, Irrefutable, Confirmation
of Global Warming
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Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC
Established by U.N. Environment Programme and
World Meteorological Union.Composed of thousands
of atmospheric scientists and climate scientists
throughout the world who review literature,
evaluate what is happening, and provide
consensussummaries.

• AR-4 Fourth Assessment Report Feb 2007
• Warming of the climate system is unequivocal
  
• Most of the observed increase in globally
  averaged temperatures since the mid 20th century
  is very likely due to the observed increase in
  anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.
  
• Very likely gt 90

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Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC

• The understanding of anthropogenic warming and
  cooling influences on climate has improved since
  the Third Assessment Report TAR 2001 leading to
  very high confidence that the globally averaged
  net effect of human activities since 1750 has
  been one of warming, with a radiative forcing of
  1.6 (range 0.6 2.4)
• very high confidence gt 90

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Is There a Scientific Consensus?

• Scientific consensus develops from the judicious
  evaluation of data by knowledgeable experts
• This is the study of discernible reality.
• The test of consensus is the peer-reviewed
  scientific literature where researchers
  communicate and exchange ideas and subject
  conclusions to expert review and evaluation.
• It is not based on the views of politicians and
  political commentators who maintain pre-conceived
  truths that evidence cannot shake.
• It is not what novelists or internet bloggers
  think.
• In the relevant peer-reviewed literature there
  simply is no published research contradicting the
  IPCC conclusions.

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Scientific Organizations Endorsing IPCC

• InterAcademy Council
• Joint Science Academies
• European Academy of Sciences and Arts 
• Network of African Science Academies
• U.S. National Academies
• U.S. National Research Council
• International Council for Science
• European Science Foundation
• American Association for the Advancement of
  Science
• Federation of American Scientists
• World Meteorological Organization
• American Meteorological Society
• U.K. Royal Meteorological Society
• Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic
  Society
• Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society
• Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society

Canadian Foundation for Climate and Atmospheric
Sciences International Union for Quaternary
Research American Quaternary Association Stratigra
phy Commission of the Geological Society of
London International Union of Geodesy and
Geophysics International Union of Geological
Sciences European Geosciences Union Canadian
Federation of Earth Sciences Geological Society
of America American Geophysical Union American
Astronomical Society American Institute of
Physics American Physical Society American
Chemical Society Engineers Australia U.S. Federal
Climate Change Science Program. Union of
Concerned Scientists
There is not one major professional organization
that rejects the IPCC consensus
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Carbon Dioxide in the Future
There are severalscenarios.
Without adequate responsethe future could be
bleak.
http//maps.grida.no/go/graphic/past_and_future_CO
2_concentrations
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Future Temperature Range
There is much doubt depends on what we do.
What does the PrecautionaryPrinciple urge?
The last Ice Age (20,000YBP) How much colder
was it?
Like a Cancer Diagnosis We know the disease
The prognosis dependson what we do.
http//epa.gov/climatechange/science/futuretc.html
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Warming is not EqualAl Gores An Inconvenient
Truth
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Overall Regional Trends
http//www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/wg1/fig2-9.htm
While global average increases, some areas
decrease.
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20th C Rainfall PatternsGores An Inconvenient
Truth
Note some areas suffer increased precipitation,
(i.e. floods) others decreased precipitation
(i.e. droughts).
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Biomes of the U.S.
Sierra Mtn.EvergreenForests
TransitionalConiferous Forests
Grasslands
Rocky Mtn. EvergreenForests
EasternDeciduousForests
Deserts
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What Determines These Biomes?

• Ave.Temperature.
• Ave. Rainfall.

Biomes develop characteristic critical soils.
X
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Biomes of the world.
So what, you might ask?
These control the agricultural and forestry
potential of our land
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Increased CO2 is Beneficial?
Plant and animal cells differ
Plant Cell
Animal Cell
C6H12O6 6O2 ? 6H20 6CO2
6CO2 6H20 ? C6H12O6 6O2
Mitochondrion
Chloroplast
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Increased CO2 is Beneficial?

• Skeptics Argument
• Plants use CO2 in photosynthesis.
• Animals produce CO2 in respiration.
• Increased CO2 must be beneficial to plants.
• Indian agricultural productivity has increased.
• See any problems???
• 1 and 2 are typical half truths
• Plants both photosynthesize respire
• Naïvely assumes CO2 is limiting factor in all
  plant growth.
• Assumes all plant species in a community will
  increase the same, i.e. no competitive
  differences exist amongst them.
• But increased temperature decreases crop yield.
• Is Indian increase due to CO2? Why accept this?

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Von Liebigs Law of the Minimum Plant growth
is limited by the critical factor that Is in
shortest supply. In fact in most cases , soil
nutrients Nitrogen (N), Phosphorous (P),
Potassium (K),
CO2 enrichment affects annual plant communities
both in terms of productivity and species
composition and the affect of CO2 on such
systems may depend upon other resources such as
light and nutrients. Zangerl and Bazzaz 1984
Oecologia 623. 
Plant species that seem to respond best are early
successional species (disturbed area invaders),
spp we call weeds. So consequence may be
.more herbicides
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Crop Production Climate

• Just like natural biomes, crops are grown under
  optimal climatic conditions temperature
  precipitation.
• Corn is a water intensive crop.
• Rule of Thumbeach 10C temp. increase ? 10 crop
  yield reduction.
• Crops cannot just move north.
• Corn currently grows in Iowa, wheat in Kansas,
• Not only because of ideal climate which can
  move north,
• but also
• because of ideal soils and photoperiod which
  cannot move north.

Brown L.R., 2006 Plan B 2.0 Rescuing a Planet
Under Stress and a Civilization in Trouble. W.W.
Norton, Co. N.Y. London 365 pp.
Sharon Begley 2008 Heat Your Vegetables Newsweek
May 5, p. 48
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Ectotherms cold-blooded creatures are
temperature dependent.
And to HigherElevations
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Why is that?
Ambient temp,body temp, and metabolic
rate relationships of a typicalEctotherm.
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Cabbage white caterpillar, Pieris
rapae,development is temperaturedependent.
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Cabbage white caterpillar, Pieris
rapae, requires 174day degrees above
10.5oC. At 11.5oC takes 174 days At 12.5oC
takes 68 days
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SaguaroCereus giganteus -Northern limit
of distribution is where a day without
thawing occurs. Can withstand a night of
freezing,but must thaw next day.
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Closed circlesat least 0.5 days w/o thawing
Open Circles No days w/o thawing
ARIZONA
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Wild madderRubia peregrina,in Europe.N. limit
is Januaryisotherm of 4.5oC - Average conditions
What happens if the planet warms?
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Ectotherm Range Expansion
Africanized honeybeesWhen conditions
areappropriate, species expand their ranges -
at a rate allowedby the mobility of their
dispersal phases.
Molles 2002 Ecology
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Bay Checkerspot butterflyEuphydryas editha
bayensis
Threatened west coast species Elimination of
populations at southern end of range has shifted
mean location north 92 km.
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Distribution of Yellow birch Betula
alleghaniensis follows the 2000/5300 DEGD lines
Too few dd
Too hot
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Tree dispersal since last ice age20,000 ybp
Molles 2002 Ecology
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What About the Future?
Tree species are limited by climatic conditions
A common tree here now but we will no longer
be in range
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As the optimum range of tree species is adjusted,
so is that for other spp., biotic communities,
and forestry and agricultural systems.
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Biome Climate Shifts
Climatic optimum forall will shiftNorth but
soilswill stay where they are. If biomes move
N,so will fauna.
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Eastern U.S. Current Forest Map
http//www.nrs.fs.fed.us/atlas/tree/trees_alltoget
her.htm l
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Eastern U.S. Future Forest Map
http//www.nrs.fs.fed.us/atlas/tree/trees_alltoget
her.htm l
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BorealForestDistributionRange - N. Pole View
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U.S. Water Usage
Jeneen Interlandi Rivers Running Dry Newsweek
(April 28th) p. 48
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Changing U.S Growth Cold Hardiness Zones
http//www.arborday.org/media/map_change.cfm
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Do Endotherms Respond?

• Ectotherms generally fluctuate with external
  temperatures
• but
• Endotherms generate their own heat.
• Are they climate dependent?

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Thermoneutral zone patterns
Molles M, 2002 Ecology
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The common vampire bat Desmodus rotundusN.
limit is mean January isotherm of 10oC
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Common vampire bat Desmodus rotundus
10oC isotherm
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Vampire BatDesmodus rotundas
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Virginia OpossumDidelphis virginiana
A Tropical Species

• Can maintain body temp of 340C in ambiental temp
  ? -70C.
• At -100C can only maintain body temp. for 20
  minutes

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Nine-Banded ArmadilloDasypus novemcinctus
A Tropical Species

• Northern limit
• Mean January temperature gt 20C.
• lt 24 annual freeze-free days.
• 38 cm annual precipitation.
• Inc. temp ? expand range N.

http//www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j
.1365-2699.1996.tb00024.x
69
Whats Happening at Yosemite National Park?
Mammalogist/ Ecologist Joseph Grinnell and
colleagues studied area in early 20th
C. Recently U.C. Berkeley emeritus Professor Jim
Patton returned to the area and undertook repeat
sampling.
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Pinyon MousePeromyscus truei
http//www.berkeley.edu/news/media/releases/2008/1
0/09_grinnell.shtmlmontane
Alpine ChipmunkTamias alpinus
- Previously found below 7,800 ft. - Now not
found below 9,800 ft.and running out of real
estate.

• Previously found in Eastern slope in Pinyon pine
  / juniper belt.
• Now in higher elevation montane pine forest.

Of 28 species, half expandedrange upwards while
others shifted range May seem ok but
competition?
71
https//exchange.semo.edu/exchange/ajournet/Inbox/
RE20Science20article20on20Yosemite20Mammal2
0shifts.EML/261.pdf/C58EA28C-18C0-4a97-9AF2-036E93
DDAFB3/261.pdf?attach1
Tamias alpinusAlpine chipmunk
Neotoma cinereaBushy-tailed woodrat
Peromyscus trueiPinyon mouse
72
https//exchange.semo.edu/exchange/ajournet/Inbox/
RE20Science20article20on20Yosemite20Mammal2
0shifts.EML/261.pdf/C58EA28C-18C0-4a97-9AF2-036E93
DDAFB3/261.pdf?attach1
28 Species
Green Significant Expansion Red Significant
Contraction
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Eastern Phoebe Sayornis phoebe,limited by
average conditionsthe 4oC isotherm
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The 4oC isotherm, with range deviations shaded.
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Primary Information Sourcefor Missouri and
Biological Consequences

• Missouri Chapter of the Society for Conservation
  Biology
• Missouri Natural Resources ConferenceJanuary
  February at Tan-Tar-A, Osage Beach
• Workshop The Potential Impact of Climate Change
  on Missouri Biodiversity.

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Four glaciations struck N.A. in the Pleistocene
Most recent Wisconsin
Beringian Land Bridge
20,000 years ago YA or YBP
X- Cape Girardeau
77
Missouri Annual Average Temperature (1895-2006)
1938
1921
1954
1931
1946
1904
1924
1917
1979
1895
Warm Period
Cool Period
Courtesy Pat Guinan, University of Missouri-
Columbia
78
Missouri Average Winter Temperature
(Dec-Jan-Feb,1895-2006)
1931-32
91-92
99-00
97-98
01-02
Temperature (F)
Warm Period
Cool Period
1935-36
1904-05
1917-18
1977-78
1978-79
Courtesy Pat Guinan, University of Missouri-
Columbia
79
Missouri Average Spring Temperature (Mar-Apr-May,
1895-2007)
1977
1991
1946
2007
1938
1983
1947
1924
1984
1960
Warm Period
Cool Period
80
Missouri Average Summer Temperature (Jun-Jul-Aug,
1895-2007)
1934
1936
1901
1980
1954
1992
2004
1927
1950
Warm Period
1915
Cool Period
81
Missouri Average Autumn Temperature (Sep-Oct-Nov,
1895-2006)
1931
1963
1998
1938
1971
1951
1896
1996
1993
Warm Period
1976
Cool Period
82
Missouris Future
Higher Average Temperature w/o more rain ? ?
Courtesy Pat Guinan, University of Missouri-
Columbia
83
As goes Illinois - so goes Missouri.
Now
By 2030summer
By 2030winter
By 2095 winter
By 2095 summer
84
Potential Climate Change Consequences for Missouri

• Increased CO2 ? More Biomass
• Higher Temperature Drought More Biomass ?
• More Fire

Courtesy Modified from Tim Nigh, Missouri
Department of Conservation
85
Current
Climate Change
Very Low
Low
Medium
High
Very High
Woodland Potential This will likely- Increase in
Hilly, Rugged and Floodplain Landscapes Decrease
in higher, flatter, Upland Prairie Plains
Landscapes
Courtesy Tim Nigh, Missouri Department of
Conservation
86
Courtesy Tim Nigh, Missouri Department of
Conservation
Savanna Woodland Wildlife
Savanna Woodland Communities
87
Very Low
Low
Medium
High
Very High
Prairie Potential This will likely - Increases
in all Landscapes moving from Upland Flats and
Dissected Plains into adjacent Hills
Courtesy Tim Nigh, Missouri Department of
Conservation
88
Courtesy Tim Nigh, Missouri Department of
Conservation
Grassland Wildlife
Prairie Communities
Courtesy Courtesy Tim Nigh, Missouri Department
of Conservation
89
-Moist Climate Change
Pine-Oak Woodland Ecosystem Dispersal Under
Warm-Dry Climate Change
Increase Prevalence within Current
Distribution Expand its Range
Courtesy Tim Nigh, Missouri Department of
Conservation
90
Range ShiftClimate Change and the American
goldfinch
If floral habitats shift North also, presumably
will fauna
91
NWF-ABC Report and Model(Developed by Jeff Price)

• Bird distributions from Breeding Bird Survey
• Coupled with climatic variables (temperature,
  precipitation, extremes)
• Project future climate, assuming a doubling of
  CO2 - Canadian Climate Center data.
• Models general patterns, not specifics

The Birdwatchers Guide to Global Warming
http//www.abcbirds.org/newsandreports/globalwarmi
ng/Missouri.pdf
Courtesy Bill Eddleman, Southeast Missouri State
University
92
Habitat Loss / Alteration
BIRD PROBLEMS
Courtesy Bill Eddleman, Southeast Missouri State
University
93
Courtesy Bill Eddleman, Southeast Missouri State
University
94
Hypothesized Mechanisms Asynchronous Arrival and
Food Availability

• Long-distance migrants appear less likely to
  alter migration timing, but food is available
  much earlier
• Migrants often respond to photoperiod but
• Insect food at nesting location responds to
  day-degrees.so food surge is earlier and
  precedes nesting.

Courtesy Bill Eddleman, Southeast Missouri State
University
95
Bird Behavior Gores An Inconvenient Truth
Historical Pattern1980
Current Pattern
96
Hypothesized Mechanisms Shift in Migration Timing

• Numerous examples world-wide
• e.g. Of 96 species of migrant birds in Manitoba
  in a 63-year study, 27 now arrive significantly
  earlier in spring, only 2 later
• Of 13 species in a North American study, 6 now
  delay fall departure
• Some species are foregoing migration at higher
  rates

Courtesy Bill Eddleman, Southeast Missouri State
University
97
Hypothesized Mechanisms Change in Clutch
Initiation Date

• Multiple examples from field studies
• Tree Swallows have advanced clutch initiation 9
  days in the last 30 years, on average
• one of the earliest biological consequences
  reported

Courtesy Bill Eddleman, Southeast Missouri State
University
98
Species whose future climatic range mayexclude
Missouri in summer
Species whose climatic summer ranges in Missouri
might contract
Species whose climatic summer ranges in Missouri
might expand
Species whose future climatic summerranges might
include Missouri
Species whose climatic summer ranges in Missouri
might undergo little change
99
HerpetofaunaGeneral patterns of response

• Range shifts
• Changes in developmental phenology
• Behavioral or morphological changes
• Shifts in genetic frequencies

Courtesy Bethany Williams, University of
Missouri, Columbia
100
Meta-analyses

• Parmesan and Yohe 2003
• Range limit shifts
• 6.1 km/decade polewards or 1m/decade upwards
• Birds, butterflies, alpine herbs (99 species)
• Phenology shifts
• Development advance of 2.3 days earlier/decade
• Herbs, shrubs, trees, birds, butterflies,
  amphibians (172 species)
• Root et al. 2003
• 143 species
• 80 of species with change show shifts in
  expected direction

Courtesy Bethany Williams, University of
Missouri, Columbia
101
Amphibians
Reptiles

• Dessicate easily
• Shell-less eggs laid in water or damp places
• Many depend on ephemeral wetlands

• Resist dessication
• Eggs with leathery shell to reduce water loss
• For some, sex of offspring depends on incubation
  temperature

Courtesy Bethany Williams, University of
Missouri, Columbia
102
Breeding phenology

• Warming trend since 1900 correlated with earlier
  anuran calling in NY (Gibbs and Breisch 2001)
• British amphibians breeding earlier over past 17
  years (Beebee 1995)
• But pattern not universal (Blaustein et al. 2001)

Courtesy Bethany Williams, University of
Missouri, Columbia
103
Wetland hydroperiod

• Importance of temporary waters
• Intermediate hydroperiods best
• Early drying may result in zero recruitment

Courtesy Bethany Williams, University of
Missouri, Columbia
104
Temperature-dependentsex determination

• Sex ratios of turtles can be highly correlated
  with air temperatures (Janzen 1994)
• Most nests produce a single sex
• Eggs gt 30oC ? females lt 30oC ? males
• Behavioral or physiological compensation?
• Nest site selection and phenology (Doody et al.
  2006, Ewert et al. 2005)
• Change in pivotal temperatures (Ewert et al.
  2005, but not Doody et al. 2006)

Courtesy Bethany Williams, University of
Missouri, Columbia
105
Additional factors
Climate change
Decreased female body condition and length
Reduced pond depth
Increased exposure to UV-B
Reduced egg production
Increased susceptibility to disease
Increased female mortality
Amphibian declines
Modified from Reading 2007 and Pounds 2001
Courtesy Bethany Williams, University of
Missouri, Columbia
106
Biological Consequences of Climate Change

• I hope I have convinced you of one point
• The consequences are NOT trivial