Biological Consequences of Anthropogenic Carbon Dioxide Emissions

1
Biological Consequences of Anthropogenic Carbon
Dioxide Emissions

• Alan Journet
• Department of Biology Environmental Science
  Program Southeast Missouri State University

2
Outline

• 3 13 Arctic and Polar Bear Intro.
• 14 22 Global Temp Pattern, Why CO2 .
• 23 26 IPCC and future.
• 27 29 Temperature and Rainfall patterns.
• 30 41 Biomes.
• 42 43 Crops and temp increase. 6
• 44 68 Temperature Relations Ectotherms.
• 69 78 Elevated CO2 and insects.
• 79 94 Endotherms.
• 95 105 Glaciations and Missouri Patterns.
• 106 111 Missouri Communities.
• 112 125 Birds.
• 126 132 Herpetofauna.
• 133 142 Ocean Acidification.
• 143 146 Coral Bleaching.
• 147 149 Conclusion.

3
Minimum Arctic Sea Ice
1979
http//www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/
2003/1023esuice.html
4
Minimum Arctic Sea Ice
2003
Greenland
Canada
Data U.S. Defense Meteorological Satellite
Program (DMSP) Special Sensor Microwave Imager
(SSMI). Credit NASA
http//www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/
2003/1023esuice.html
5
September 2008 NASA's Aqua satellite
Arctic perennial sea ice has been decreasing at a
rate of 9 per decade.
If Greenland ice cap totally melts ? 20 ft sea
level rise
http//www.cbc.ca/technology/story/2008/09/10/ice-
passage.html
6
September 2009 NASA's Aqua satellite
The third lowest since 1979
http//nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/
7
http//nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_im
ages/N_timeseries.png
8
Polar Bear Ursus maritimus
9
Al Gores An Inconvenient Truth
Winter on frozen ice flows feeding on seals.
10
Gives the concept of Ice Fishing a whole new
meaning
11
Winter on ice flows feeding on seals that come to
ice holes
Spring Summer ice melts bears move to land
SummerMaintain themselves and nourish cubs off
the winter fat
12
Summer on land giving birth
http//www.alaskastock.com/resultsframe.asp?gs1t
xtkeys1PolarBeartitlePolar20Bear20pictures2
0-20photos20of20Polar20Bears20by20Alaska20S
tock20Images
13
Winter on ice flows feeding on seals that come to
ice holes
Spring Summer ice melts bears move to land
Fall / Autumn return to Ice again
SummerMaintain themselves and nourish cubs off
the winter fat
14
http//www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2007/mar/04/
climatechange.activists
Because ice flows are melting feeding
habitatis diminishing.
Bears cannot find sufficient ice drown while
searching do not fatten enough tosurvive
summer More bears are seen near human
habitations searchingfor food.
http//www.alaskastock.com/resultsframe.asp?gs1t
xtkeys1PolarBeartitlePolar20Bear20pictures2
0-20photos20of20Polar20Bears20by20Alaska20S
tock20Images
15
Other Polar Wildlife Species

• Walrus
• Caribou
• Reindeer
• Seals
• Penguins (Antarctic)

16
Two Thousand Years of Temperature
http//commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Image2000_Year_
Temperature_Comparison.png
17
Global Temperatures 1880 2008Goddard Institute
for Space Studies
BUT WHY?
IPCC 2007 11 of the last 12 years are among
twelve hottest on record
The ten warmest years all occur within the
12-year period 1997-2008.
http//data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2008/
18
IT ALL STARTS WITH INCOMING SOLAR RADIATION
Higherenergy

• The atmosphere absorbs some of the incoming
  solar radiation
• Ozone is especially important.

19
What Happens to this Radiation?
These are re- radiated outwards.
20
Outgoing Long-wave Radiation NASA CERES Data
http//www.exploratorium.edu/climate/atmosphere/in
dex.html
21
The Atmospheric GreenhouseEffect"
NOTE Absorbency is in lower atmosphere which
is where we live
Meanwhile, the rest passes up and out
Infra-red heat
Gases in loweratmosphere absorbthe heat and
retain it does not escape into space as
readily.
Visible light
Earth
Current ave. temp app 15oC or 59oF
Warming
Warming
Cooling
Without these gases temp -150C to -300C
22
Positive and Negative Atmospheric
CO2
N2O
CH4
23
Carbon dioxide now and futureAl Gores An
Inconvenient Truth
CO2 Possible Future
600
CO2 Now
If the CO2 ?Temperaturerelationship holds, what
will the temperature be?
We can nowgo back 650,000years
Temperature Now
300,000
200,000
100,000
Now
24
Finally Definitive, Irrefutable, Confirmation
of Global Warming
25
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC
Established by U.N. Environment Programme and
World Meteorological Union.Composed of thousands
of atmospheric scientists and climate scientists
throughout the world who review literature,
evaluate what is happening, and provide
consensussummaries.

• AR-4 Fourth Assessment Report Feb 2007
• Warming of the climate system is unequivocal
  
• Most of the observed increase in globally
  averaged temperatures since the mid 20th century
  is very likely due to the observed increase in
  anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.
  
• Very likely gt 90

26
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC

• The understanding of anthropogenic warming and
  cooling influences on climate has improved since
  the Third Assessment Report TAR 2001 leading to
  very high confidence that the globally averaged
  net effect of human activities since 1750 has
  been one of warming, with a radiative forcing of
  1.6 (range 0.6 2.4)
• very high confidence gt 90

27
Carbon Dioxide in the Future
There are severalscenarios.
Without adequate responsethe future could be
bleak.
http//maps.grida.no/go/graphic/past_and_future_CO
2_concentrations
28
Future Temperature Range
There is much doubt depends on what we do.
What does the PrecautionaryPrinciple urge?
The last Ice Age (20,000YBP) How much colder
was it?
Like a Cancer Diagnosis We know the disease
The prognosis dependson what we do.
http//epa.gov/climatechange/science/futuretc.html
29
Warming is not EqualAl Gores An Inconvenient
Truth
30
Overall Regional Trends
http//www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/wg1/fig2-9.htm
While global average increases, some areas
decrease.
31
20th C Rainfall PatternsGores An Inconvenient
Truth
Note some areas suffer increased precipitation,
(i.e. floods) others decreased precipitation
(i.e. droughts).
32
What Are Biomes?

• The name biologically given to the broad
  assemblages of plants and animals with which we
  are familiar
• ??????
• Arrayed around the U.S. and the world.

33
Biomes

• Desert

• Tundra

• Grassland
• Savanna
• Woodland
• Temperate Coniferous Forest
• Temperate Deciduous Forest
• Tropical Wet Forest
• Tropical Rain Forest

34
Biomes of the U.S.
Sierra Mtn.EvergreenForests
TransitionalConiferous Forests
Grasslands
Rocky Mtn. EvergreenForests
EasternDeciduousForests
Deserts
35
For A LittleMore Detail
36
U.S. Soil Groups
37
(No Transcript)
38
What Determines These Biomes?

• Ave.Temperature.
• Ave. Rainfall.

Biomes develop characteristic critical soils.
X
39
Future climatic optima
Paul Nelson MNRC 2009
40
So what, you might ask?
Biomes of the world.
These control the agricultural and forestry
potential of our land
Not only do these represent whereour flora and
fauna livebut
http//soils.usda.gov/use/worldsoils/mapindex/biom
es.html
41
While temp. and ppt. patterns can shift, soils
are stuck
http//soils.usda.gov/use/worldsoils/mapindex/biom
es.html
42
Ken McCarty MNRC 2009
43
Paul Nelson MNRC 2009
Urban Change in St. Louis Missouri Resource
Assessment Partnership
1999
1972
44
Crop Production Climate

• Just like natural biomes, crops are grown under
  optimal climatic conditions temperature
  precipitation.
• Rule of Thumbeach 10C temp. increase ? 10 crop
  yield reduction.
• Crops cannot just move north.
• Corn currently grows in Iowa, wheat in Kansas,
• Not only because of ideal climate which can
  move north,
• but also
• because of ideal soils and photoperiod which
  cannot move north.
• Corn is a water intensive crop.

Brown L.R., 2006 Plan B 2.0 Rescuing a Planet
Under Stress and a Civilization in Trouble. W.W.
Norton, Co. N.Y. London 365 pp.
Sharon Begley 2008 Heat Your Vegetables Newsweek
May 5, p. 48
45
U.S. Water Usage
Jeneen Interlandi Rivers Running Dry Newsweek
(April 28th) p. 48
46
How Do Organisms Respond to Climatic Temperature
Increases?

• Temperature Relationships
• Ectotherms obtain heat from environment.
• Endotherms generate their own heat from
  metabolic processes.

47
Ectotherms cold-blooded creatures are
temperature dependent.
Ambient temp,body temp, and metabolic
rate relationships of a typicalEctotherm.
48
The Consequence, for example..
Cabbage white caterpillar, Pieris
rapae,development is temperaturedependent.
49
Cabbage white caterpillar, Pieris
rapae, requires 174day degrees above
10.5oC. At 11.5oC takes 174 days At 12.5oC
takes 87 days
50
Consequences
As planet warms they move
And to HigherElevations
51
For plant development the same principles apply
growth rate is temperature dependent
But, for plants and animals rather thanaverage
temperature, seasonal extremes may be more
important.
52
SaguaroCereus giganteus -Northern limit
of distribution is where a day without
thawing occurs. Can withstand a night of
freezing,but must thaw next day.
53
Closed circlesat least 0.5 days w/o thawing
Open Circles No days w/o thawing
ARIZONA
54
Wild madderRubia peregrina,in Europe.N. limit
is Januaryisotherm of 4.5oC - Average conditions
What happens if the planet warms?
55
Range Expansion
Africanized honeybeesWhen conditions
areappropriate, species expand their ranges -
at a rate allowedby the mobility of their
dispersal phases.
Molles 2002 Ecology
56
Range Adjustment -Bay Checkerspot
butterflyEuphydryas editha bayensis
Threatened west coast species Elimination of
populations at southern end of range has shifted
mean location north 92 km.
57
Malaria
Potential problems are not trivial.
45 spp. of Anopheles

• Protozoan Plasmodium spp.
• Vector Anopheles mosquitoes
• Limitations
• Cooler seasons (Plasmodium falciparum cannot
  complete growth cycle below 20oC (68oF)
• High altitudes and latitudes

From Melanie Dow,BI489, Fall 2008
58
From Melanie Dow,BI489, Fall 2008
http//maps.grida.no/library/files/climate_change_
and_malaria_scenario_for_2050.jpg
59
Dengue Fever
Aedes aegypti
Not deadly
But Dengue Heamorrhagic fever into which it
may develop.can be!
From Melanie Dow,BI489, Fall 2008
60
Lyme Disease

• Bacteria Borrelia burgdorferi
• Vector Blacklegged tick
• Principal species Ixodes scapularis

http//www.cdc.gov/ncidod/dvbid/lyme/images/039_bl
acklegged110107b.jpg
From Melanie Dow,BI489, Fall 2008
61
Bark beetle damage
Millions of acres in Alaska and B.C.The insect
was previously slowed by cold winters.

• In addition,
• Drought stresses trees
• But tree stress response often involves
• an increased free amino acid pool in cells
• ?making foliage more nutritious
• enhances insect development rate
• exacerbates outbreak

Gores An Inconvenient Truth
62
Distribution of Yellow birch Betula
alleghaniensis follows the 2000/5300 DEGD lines
Too few dd
Too hot
63
Tree dispersal since last ice age20,000 ybp
Molles 2002 Ecology
64
What About the Future?
Tree species are limited by climatic conditions
A common tree here now but MO may no longer
be in range
65
As the optimum range of tree species is adjusted,
so is that for other spp., biotic communities,
and forestry and agricultural systems.
66
Biome Climate Shifts
Climatic optimum forall will shiftNorth but
soilswill stay where they are. If biomes move
N,so will fauna.
67
Eastern U.S. Current Forest Map
http//www.nrs.fs.fed.us/atlas/tree/trees_alltoget
her.htm l
68
Eastern U.S. Future Forest Map
http//www.nrs.fs.fed.us/atlas/tree/trees_alltoget
her.htm l
69
BorealForestDistributionRange - N. Pole View
70
Changing U.S Growth Cold Hardiness Zones
http//www.arborday.org/media/map_change.cfm
71
Increased CO2 is Beneficial?

• A Skeptic Argument
• Plants use CO2 in photosynthesis.
• Animals produce CO2 in respiration.
• Increased CO2 must be beneficial to plants.
• Indian agricultural productivity has increased.
• See any problems???
• 1 and 2 are typical half truths
• Plants both photosynthesize respire
• Naïvely assumes CO2 is limiting factor in all
  plant growth.
• Assumes all plant species in a community will
  increase the same, i.e. no competitive
  differences exist amongst them.
• But increased temperature decreases crop yield.
• Is Indian increase due to CO2? Why accept this?

Reich, PB, Hungate BA, Luo Y 2006. Annual Review
of Ecology Systematics. 37 611-636.
72
Von Liebigs Law of the Minimum Plant growth
is limited by the critical factor that Is in
shortest supply. In fact in most cases, soil
nutrients Nitrogen (N), Phosphorous (P),
Potassium (K),
CO2 enrichment affects annual plant communities
both in terms of productivity and species
composition The effect of CO2 on such systems
may depend upon other resources such as light
and nutrients. Zangerl and Bazzaz 1984
Oecologia 62 (3) 412 417.
Plant species that seem to respond best are early
successional species (disturbed area invaders),
spp we call weeds. So consequence may be
.more herbicides.
73
What about Carbon dioxide elevated level and the
plant herbivore interface?
74
Leaf Nitrogen
ns p gt 0.05 0.05 gt p gt 0.01 0.01 gt p
gt 0.001 p lt 0.001
Mustard
Collard

A E A E Carbon Dioxide
A Ambiental E Elevated
Courtesy John Landosky, University of
Missouri- St. Louis
75
Leaf Water
ns p gt 0.05 0.05 gt p gt 0.01 0.01 gt p
gt 0.001 p lt 0.001
Mustard
Collard

In a review of 16 studies considering 22 species,
59 of species showed reduced leaf water, while
the rest showed no effect.
A E A E Carbon Dioxide
Courtesy John Landosky, University of
Missouri- St. Louis
76
Chemical Defenses
ns p gt 0.05 0.05 gt p gt 0.01 0.01 gt p
gt 0.001 p lt 0.001
Mustard
Collard
ns ns
A E A E Carbon Dioxide
Courtesy John Landosky, University of
Missouri- St. Louis
77
Mechanical Defense
Radish

• p0.008

Trichomes/cm2
Lindroth et al., 1993, but see Dury et al., 1998
CO2 level
Courtesy John Landosky, University of
Missouri- St. Louis
78
Efficiency of Ingested Food To Biomass
PD-USGOV-USDA-FS
Mustard
Collard

A E A E Carbon Dioxide
Kinney et al., 1997
Courtesy John Landosky, University of
Missouri- St. Louis
79
Consumption
ns p gt 0.05 0.05 gt p gt 0.01 0.01 gt p
gt 0.001 p lt 0.001
Mustard
Collard

A E A E Carbon Dioxide
Stiling et al., 2003
Courtesy John Landosky, University of
Missouri- St. Louis
80

• Elevated CO2
• Lower quality food.
• Lower herbivore performance.
• Increased consumption.

Courtesy John Landosky, University of
Missouri- St. Louis
81
Do Endotherms Respond?

• Ectotherms generally fluctuate with external
  temperatures
• But
• Endotherms generate their own heat.
• Are they climate dependent?

82
Thermoneutral zone patterns
Molles M, 2002 Ecology
83
Vampire Bats
The common vampire bat Desmodus rotundusN.
limit is mean January isotherm of 10oC
http//www.arkive.org/media/F24D1381-854B-492C-A82
E-1AF761A3246E/Presentation.Large/photo.jpg
84
Common vampire bat Desmodus rotundus
Several Years Ago
10oC isotherm
85
Vampire BatDesmodus rotundas
More recently
86
Virginia OpossumDidelphis virginiana
A Tropical Species

• Can maintain body temp of 340C in ambiental temp
  ? -70C.
• At -100C can only maintain body temp. for 20
  minutes

87
Nine-Banded ArmadilloDasypus novemcinctus
A Tropical Species

• Northern limit
• Mean January temperature gt 20C.
• lt 24 annual freeze-days.
• 38 cm annual precipitation.
• Inc. temp ? expand range N.

http//www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j
.1365-2699.1996.tb00024.x
88
Armadillo Cont.
Predicted range expansion of nine-banded armadillo
https//www.msu.edu/nixonjos/armadillo/expansion.
html
89
Southern Flying SquirrelsGlaucomys volans

• Historically, Southern flying squirrel
  populations have been pushed to the tops of
  mountains in Mexico.
• They have formed distinct and separate
  populations, at the tops of those mountains, as
  lower elevation habitats shrink due to increased
  temperature.

90
OTHER EXAMPLES.
http//www3.interscience.wiley.com/journal/1187841
59/abstract?CRETRY1SRETRY0
Bighorn Sheep Ochotona princeps metapopulation
analysis in California population decline
correlates with decreased ppt and increased
temperature.
91
The Pika Ochotona princeps an Alpine species
with dense fur and a rounded body cannot tolerate
high temperature confined to Mountain top
islands in the Great Basin (Colorado, Utah,
Nevada)
http//www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2005/12/05122
9110345.htm and http//www.sciencedaily.com/relea
ses/2004/12/041219160938.htm
92
Whats Happening at Yosemite National Park?
Mammalogist/ Ecologist Joseph Grinnell and
colleagues studied area in early 20th
C. Recently U.C. Berkeley emeritus Professor Jim
Patton returned to the area and undertook repeat
sampling.
93
Pinyon MousePeromyscus truei
http//www.berkeley.edu/news/media/releases/2008/1
0/09_grinnell.shtmlmontane
Alpine ChipmunkTamias alpinus
- Previously found below 7,800 ft. - Now not
found below 9,800 ft.and running out of real
estate.

• Previously found in Eastern slope in Pinyon pine
  / juniper belt.
• Now in higher elevation montane pine forest.

94
https//exchange.semo.edu/exchange/ajournet/Inbox/
RE20Science20article20on20Yosemite20Mammal2
0shifts.EML/261.pdf/C58EA28C-18C0-4a97-9AF2-036E93
DDAFB3/261.pdf?attach1
28 Species
Green Significant Expansion Red Significant
Contraction
Of 28 species, Some expanded range upwards while
others contracted from lower part of range. May
seem ok but competition viz-a-viz other spp,
running out of real estate?
95
Eastern Phoebe Sayornis phoebe,limited by
average conditionsthe 4oC isotherm
96
The 4oC isotherm, with range deviations shaded.
97
Four glaciations struck N.A. in the Pleistocene
Most recent Wisconsin
Beringian Land Bridge
20,000 years ago YA or YBP
X- Cape Girardeau
98
18,000 - 20,000
Over the last2 millions years4 glaciations have
occurred
170,000 120,000
480,000 230,000
800,000 600,000
99
18,000 BP
Ken McCarty
100
Fig 1 p. 4
Nelson 2005 Edition
101
Missouri Annual Average Temperature (1895-2006)
1938
1921
1954
1931
1946
1904
1924
1917
1979
1895
Warm Period
Cool Period
Courtesy Pat Guinan, University of Missouri-
Columbia
102
Missouri Average Winter Temperature
(Dec-Jan-Feb,1895-2006)
1931-32
91-92
99-00
97-98
01-02
Temperature (F)
Warm Period
Cool Period
1935-36
1904-05
1917-18
1977-78
1978-79
Courtesy Pat Guinan, University of Missouri-
Columbia
103
Missouri Average Spring Temperature (Mar-Apr-May,
1895-2007)
1977
1991
1946
2007
1938
1983
1947
1924
1984
1960
Warm Period
Cool Period
104
Missouri Average Summer Temperature (Jun-Jul-Aug,
1895-2007)
1934
1936
1901
1980
1954
1992
2004
1927
1950
Warm Period
1915
Cool Period
105
Missouri Average Autumn Temperature (Sep-Oct-Nov,
1895-2006)
1931
1963
1998
1938
1971
1951
1896
1996
1993
Warm Period
1976
Cool Period
106
Missouris Future
Higher Average Temperature w/o more rain ? ?
Courtesy Pat Guinan, University of Missouri-
Columbia
107
As goes Illinois - so goes Missouri.
Now
By 2030summer
By 2030winter
By 2095 winter
By 2095 summer
108
Potential Climate Change Consequences for Missouri

• Increased CO2 ? More Biomass
• Higher Temperature Drought More Biomass ?
• More Fire

Courtesy Modified from Tim Nigh, Missouri
Department of Conservation
109
Current
Climate Change
Very Low
Low
Medium
High
Very High
Woodland Potential This will likely - increase
in Hilly, Rugged and Floodplain Landscapes This
will likely - decrease in higher, flatter, Upland
Prairie Plains Landscapes
Courtesy Tim Nigh, Missouri Department of
Conservation
110
Courtesy Tim Nigh, Missouri Department of
Conservation
Savanna Woodland Wildlife
Savanna Woodland Communities
111
Very Low
Low
Medium
High
Very High
Prairie Potential This will likely - increases
in all Landscapes moving from Upland Flats and
Dissected Plains into adjacent Hills
Courtesy Tim Nigh, Missouri Department of
Conservation
112
Courtesy Tim Nigh, Missouri Department of
Conservation
Grassland Wildlife
Prairie Communities
Courtesy Courtesy Tim Nigh, Missouri Department
of Conservation
113
-Moist Climate Change
Pine-Oak Woodland Ecosystem Dispersal Under
Warm-Dry Climate Change
Increase Prevalence within Current
Distribution Expand its Range
Underline Climatic conditions but can
communities relocate
Courtesy Tim Nigh, Missouri Department of
Conservation
114
Habitat Similarity (1950-1999) compared to
(2050-2099)
Courtesy Dennis Figg, Missouri Department of
Conservation
115
Vegetation Types (Current)
Vegetation Types (Future)
Courtesy Dennis Figg, Missouri Department of
Conservation
116
How might Missouri be affected?
Courtesy Dennis Figg, Missouri Department of
Conservation
117
Case Study Hotspot Analysis
Picking a pilot hotspot
Courtesy Dennis Figg, Missouri Department of
Conservation
118
Range ShiftClimate Change and the American
goldfinch
If floral habitats shift North also, presumably
will fauna
119
Wetland habitat loss / alteration
BIRD PROBLEMS
Particularly for wetland speciespermanent
residents
Courtesy Bill Eddleman, Southeast Missouri State
University
120
or migrants
Courtesy Bill Eddleman, Southeast Missouri State
University
121
Asynchronous Migrant Arrival and Food Availability

• Long-distance migrants appear less likely to
  alter migration timing, but food is available
  much earlier
• Migrants often respond to photoperiod but
• Insect food at nesting location responds to
  day-degrees.so food surge is earlier and
  precedes nesting.

Courtesy Bill Eddleman, Southeast Missouri State
University
122
Bird Behavior Gores An Inconvenient Truth
Historical Pattern1980
Current Pattern
123
Shift in Migration Timing

• Numerous examples world-wide
• e.g. Of 96 species of migrant birds in Manitoba
  in a 63-year study, 27 now arrive significantly
  earlier in spring, only 2 later
• Of 13 species in a North American study, 6 now
  delay fall departure
• Some species are foregoing migration at higher
  rates

Courtesy Bill Eddleman, Southeast Missouri State
University
124
Change in Clutch Initiation Date

• Multiple examples from field studies
• Tree Swallows have advanced clutch initiation 9
  days in the last 30 years, on average
• one of the earliest biological consequences
  reported

Courtesy Bill Eddleman, Southeast Missouri State
University
125
NWF-ABC Report and Model(Developed by Jeff Price)
The Birdwatchers Guide to Global Warming

• Bird distributions from Breeding Bird Survey
• Coupled with climatic variables (temperature,
  precipitation, extremes)
• Project future climate, assuming a doubling of
  CO2.

http//www.abcbirds.org/newsandreports/globalwarmi
ng/Missouri.pdf
Courtesy Bill Eddleman, Southeast Missouri State
University
126
Species whose future climatic range mayexclude
Missouri in summer

• Acadian Flycatcher
• Willow Flycatcher
• Least Flycatcher
• Tree Swallow
• Bank Swallow
• Black-capped Chickadee
• Carolina Chickadee
• House Wren
• Sedge Wren
• Gray Catbird
• Yellow-throated Vireo
• Warbling Vireo
• Red-eyed Vireo
• Yellow Warbler
• Chestnut sided Warbler
• Prairie Warbler

• Cerulean Warbler,
• American Redstart,
• Ovenbird, Kentucky Warbler,
• Hooded Warbler,
• Summer Tanager,
• Scarlet Tanager,
• Rose-breasted Grosbeak,
• Indigo Bunting, Chipping
• Sparrow, Vesper Sparrow,
• Savannah Sparrow,
• Grasshopper Sparrow,
• Song Sparrow, Bobolink,
• Yellow-headed Blackbird,
• Baltimore Oriole, Pine
• Siskin
• American Goldfinch.

127
Species whose climatic summer ranges in Missouri
might contract

• Purple Martin
• Cliff Swallow
• Tufted Titmouse
• White-breasted Nuthatch,
• Brown Thrasher
• Northern Parula
• Louisiana Water thrush
• Common Yellowthroat
• Field Sparrow.

128
Species whose climatic summer ranges in Missouri
might expand

• Pine Warbler
• Blue Grosbeak
• Painted Bunting
• Lark Sparrow
• Western Meadowlark
• Great-tailed Grackle

• Western Kingbird
• Scissor-tailed Flycatcher
• Bewicks Wren
• Loggerhead Shrike
• White-eyed Vireo
• Bells Vireo
• Yellow-throated Warbler

129
Species whose future climatic summerranges might
include Missouri

• Vermilion Flycatcher
• Ash-throated Flycatcher
• Chihuahuan Raven
• Cactus Wren

• Black-headed Grosbeak
• Cassins Sparrow
• Bullocks Oriole
• Lesser Goldfinch.

130
Species whose climatic summer ranges in Missouri
might undergo little change

• EasternWood-Pewee
• Eastern Phoebe
• Greatcrested Flycatcher
• Eastern Kingbird
• Horned Lark,
• Northern Rough-winged Swallow
• Barn Swallow,
• Blue Jay
• Carolina Wren
• Eastern Bluebird,
• Northern Mockingbird

• Black-and-white Warbler,
• Prothonotary Warbler
• Yellow-breasted Chat,
• Northern Cardinal
• Dickcissel
• Eastern Towhee
• Redwinged Blackbird
• Eastern Meadowlark
• Common Grackle
• Brown-headed Cowbird
• Orchard Oriole
• House Sparrow.

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As the temperature across the U.S. has gotten
warmer, the purple finch has been spending its
winters more than 400 miles farther north than it
used to.
The National Audubon Society report based on the
Christmas bird annual count indicates that half
of 305 selected bird species in North America --
a sample that includes robins, gulls, owls and
other common species -- are on average spending
winter about 35 miles farther north than they did
40 years ago.
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HerpetofaunaGeneral patterns of response

• Range shifts
• Changes in developmental phenology
• Behavioral or morphological changes
• Shifts in genetic frequencies

Courtesy Bethany Williams, University of
Missouri, Columbia
140
Meta-analyses

• Parmesan and Yohe 2003
• Range limit shifts
• 6.1 km/decade polewards or 1m/decade upwards
• Birds, butterflies, alpine herbs (99 species)
• Phenology shifts
• Development advance of 2.3 days earlier/decade
• Herbs, shrubs, trees, birds, butterflies,
  amphibians (172 species)
• Root et al. 2003
• 143 species
• 80 of species with change show shifts in
  expected direction

Courtesy Bethany Williams, University of
Missouri, Columbia
141
Amphibians
Reptiles

• Desiccate easily
• Shell-less eggs laid in water or damp places
• Many depend on ephemeral wetlands

• Resist desiccation
• Eggs with leathery shell to reduce water loss
• For some, sex of offspring depends on incubation
  temperature

Courtesy Bethany Williams, University of
Missouri, Columbia
142
Breeding phenology

• Warming trend since 1900 correlated with earlier
  anuran calling in NY (Gibbs and Breisch 2001)
• British amphibians breeding earlier over past 17
  years (Beebee 1995)
• But pattern not universal (Blaustein et al. 2001)

Courtesy Bethany Williams, University of
Missouri, Columbia
143
Wetland hydroperiod

• Importance of temporary waters
• Intermediate hydroperiods best
• Early drying may result in zero recruitment

Courtesy Bethany Williams, University of
Missouri, Columbia
144
Temperature-dependentsex determination

• Sex ratios of turtles can be highly correlated
  with air temperatures (Janzen 1994)
• Most nests produce a single sex
• Eggs gt 30oC ? females lt 30oC ? males
• Behavioral or physiological compensation?
• Nest site selection and phenology (Doody et al.
  2006, Ewert et al. 2005)
• Change in pivotal temperatures (Ewert et al.
  2005, but not Doody et al. 2006)

Courtesy Bethany Williams, University of
Missouri, Columbia
145
Additional factors
Climate change
Decreased female body condition and length
Reduced pond depth
Increased exposure to UV-B
Reduced egg production
Increased susceptibility to disease
Increased female mortality
Amphibian declines
Modified from Reading 2007 and Pounds 2001
Courtesy Bethany Williams, University of
Missouri, Columbia
146
Carbon Dioxide and the Oceans
Atmosphere
CO2
CO2
CO2
Fossil Fuel Combustion
Vegetation
Oceans
H2O CO2 ? H2CO3 ? H HCO3 Water
Carbon dioxide ? carbonic acid
Half the CO2 released since 1750 has ended up
here
From Stephanie Long,BI489, Fall 2008
http//earthtrends.wri.org/updates/node/245
147
Acidification of the Oceans
NOTE A 0.1 drop in pH doubling of H
http//earthtrends.wri.org/updates/node/245
From Stephanie Long,BI489, Fall 2008
148
Past, Present and Future?
http//earthtrends.wri.org/updates/node/245
From Stephanie Long,BI489, Fall 2008
149
So what?

• Marine Calcifiers (create shell or skeleton out
  of calcium carbonate)
• Mollusks
• Crustaceans
• Reef-forming Corals
• Some Algae
• Some Phytoplankton

From Stephanie Long,BI489, Fall 2008
150
Obstacles for Marine Calcifiers - 1

• Calcium Carbonate Needed for skeletons or shells.
• Carbonic Acid releases Hydrogen ions (bad)
• -Carbonate Ion binds with Hydrogen ? becomes
  unavailable.
• Shell-building organisms can not use this ion for
  synthesis

Krill
From Stephanie Long,BI489, Fall 2008
151
Obstacles for Marine Calcifiers - 2
Critical in many food chains

• Shells that have managed to form are now more
  likely to dissolve under low pH.
• Lower waters naturally more acidic
• Saturation Horizon expected to rise

From Stephanie Long,BI489, Fall 2008
152
Acidosis
Obstacles for Marine Calcifiers - 3

• Acidosis build-up of carbonic acid in body
  fluids
• Disrupts growth, respiration, reproduction.
• Affects Fish, squid, and countless other organisms

From Stephanie Long,BI489, Fall 2008
153
Loss of Habitat

• Many Marine Calcifiers provide shelter for other
  oceanic organisms.

http//valleasoleado.com/assets/images/coral_reef_
5.jpg
From Stephanie Long,BI489, Fall 2008
http//buy.tickets.streamintech.com/admin/EventIma
ges/CoralReef3.jpg
154

• Krill
• Phytoplankton
• Algae

From Stephanie Long,BI489, Fall 2008
155
Doesnt just disrupt the Ocean
Terrestrial
Marine
From Stephanie Long,BI489, Fall 2008
http//www.absc.usgs.gov/research/seabird_foragefi
sh/marinehabitat/home.html
156
Munday et al (2009) PNAC. At pH 7.8 Clownfish
become unable to orient and locate habitat
157
Healthy Coral
From Travis Holland,BI489, Fall 2008
158
Coral Growth factors

• Nutrients
• Salinity
• Irradiance
• Turbidity
• Sedimentation
• Temperature
• pH
• Calcium Carbonate Saturation

Like swamps in rivers coral reefs are oceanic
nurseries.
From Travis Holland,BI489, Fall 2008
159
Coral BleachingProgression with time
From Travis Holland,BI489, Fall 2008
160
Bleached Coral
A marine desert
From Travis Holland,BI489, Fall 2008
161
Biological Consequences of Climate Change

• I hope I have convinced you of one point
• The potential biological consequences are NOT
  trivial.
• A Last Thought
• Risk (f)
• Risk (f) Probability
• Risk (f) Probability Severity

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We Have Choices..
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Southeast Green Coalition
Southeast Missouri Climate Protection
InitiativeSEMOCPI
End