Climate Change Science Career

1
Climate Change The Current Consensus
Alan Journet Department of Biology
Environmental Science Program Southeast Missouri
State University E-mail ajournet_at_semo.edu
The Condition Some Consequences The
Consensus?The Counter - personal political
Start by taking a trip.
Up!
2
Our atmosphere has layers.
You are here
http//wings.avkids.com/Book/Atmosphere/Images/atm
os_temp.gif
3
What is the most important atmospheric component
to us?

• Component Percent by Volume
• 1 Nitrogen 78.08
• 2 Oxygen O2 20.94
• 3 Argon 0.934
• 4 Carbon dioxide 0.035
• 5 Neon 0.00182
• 6 Helium 0.00052
• 7 Methane 0.00015
• 8 Krypton 0.00011
• 9 Hydrogen 0.00005
• Nitrous oxide 0.00005
• Xenon 0.000009
• Ozone 0.000004
• Water Vapor 0 4
• Chlorofluorocarbons 0.000000000750

Now
4
What is the most important atmospheric component
to us?

• Component Percent by Volume
• 1 Nitrogen As Now 78.08
• 2 Oxygen O2 As Now 20.94
• 3 Argon As Now 0.934
• 4 Carbon dioxide 0.0285 ? 0.035
• 5 Neon As Now 0.00182
• 6 Helium As Now 0.00052
• 7 Methane 0.00005 ? 0.00015
• 8 Krypton As Now 0.00011
• 9 Hydrogen As Now 0.00005
• Nitrous oxide 0.0000285 ? 0.00005
• Xenon As Now 0.000009
• Ozone As Now 0.000004
• Water Vapor As Now 0 4
• Chlorofluorocarbons ------- 0.000000000750

App. 1750 Now
5
Atmosphere and Temperature Moderation

• That some of the gases in our atmosphere are
  critical to maintaining our temperature is not in
  doubt.
• Tyndall (1861) demonstrated the absorptive and
  radiative capacities of carbon dioxide,
• Arrhenius (1896) warned of potential climatic
  consequences,
• Keeling (1960) published first keeling curve.
• Current global average app 570F or 15½0C,
• Without these gases ? 590F or 330C colder,
• Comparisons if CO2 1
• Methane 23, N2O 296, CFCs 5,000 - 10,000.

Atmospheric CO2
6
IT ALL STARTS WITH INCOMING SOLAR RADIATION
Higherenergy

• The atmosphere absorbs some of the incoming
  solar radiation
• Ozone is especially important.

7
What Happens to this Radiation?
8
The Atmospheric GreenhouseEffect"
NOTE Absorbency is in lower atmosphere which
is where we live
Meanwhile, the rest passes up and out
Infra-red heat
Gases in loweratmosphere absorbsome heat and
retain it does not escape into space as
readily.
Visible light
Earth
Current ave. temp app 15oC or 59oF
Warming
Warming
Cooling
Without these gases temp -150C to -300C
9
Other Planets??
Atmospheres Temperatures

• Venus

• Mars

• 90X more dense than Earth
• Carbon dioxide 0.97
• Nitrogen 0.02
• Oxygen 0.01
• Temperature 8900F

• 1 as dense as Earth
• Carbon dioxide 0.95
• Nitrogen 0.03
• Oxygen 0.01
• Temperature
• -1700F (night)
• - 500F (Day)

10
Carbon dioxide now and futureAl Gores An
Inconvenient Truth
CO2 Possible Future
600 or more???
CO2 Now
If the CO2 ?Temperaturerelationship holds, what
will the temperature be?
CO2
Temperature Now
Temperature
300,000
200,000
100,000
Now
11
Anthropogenic CO2 Sources
Burning coal oil
From where does all this CO2 come?
Starting from the Industrial Revolution in mid
18th C
http//www.epa.gov/climatechange/emissions/co2_hum
an.html
12
Carbon dioxide by NationThe Top Ten in 2006
China
v
Rest of World
v
v
USA
Russia
Italy
India
U.K
South Korea
Canada
Germany
Japan
http//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_
carbon_dioxide_emissions
13
Carbon dioxide by Nation 2006
http//www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science_and_i
mpacts/science/each-countrys-share-of-co2.html
http//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_
carbon_dioxide_emissions
14
Carbon Dioxide in the Future
There are severalscenarios.
Without adequate responsethe future could be
bleak.
http//maps.grida.no/go/graphic/past_and_future_CO
2_concentrations
15
Global Temperatures 1880 2008Goddard Institute
for Space Studies
IPCC 2007 11 of the last 12 years are among
twelve hottest on record
The ten warmest years all occur within the
12-year period 1997-2008.
http//data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2008/
16
Future Temperature Range
There is much doubt depends on what we do.
The last Ice Age (20,000YBP) How much colder
was it?
Like a Cancer Diagnosis We know the disease
The prognosis dependson what we do.
http//epa.gov/climatechange/science/futuretc.html
17
METHANE 23X CO2 Fossil fuel production Livestock
Rice cultivation Burning biomass wood
etc. Waste management
CH4
But CO2 is not the only GHGincreasing since 1750
So what, you mightreasonably ask?
N2O
NOx 296X CO2 Fossil fuel combustion Fertilizers
Nitrogen fixing plants
18
Biomes of the U.S.
Some Consequences..
Sierra Mtn.EvergreenForests
TransitionalConiferous Forests
Grasslands
Rocky Mtn. EvergreenForests
EasternDeciduousForests
Deserts
19
What Determines These Biomes?

• Ave.Temperature.
• Ave. Rainfall.

X
20
So what, you might ask?
Biomes of the world.
these climatic zones provide the agricultural
and forestry potential that support us.
Not only do these represent whereour flora and
fauna livebut
http//soils.usda.gov/use/worldsoils/mapindex/biom
es.html
21
Changing U.S Growth Cold Hardiness Zones
Climate is shifting rapidly but biomes cannot.
http//www.arborday.org/media/map_change.cfm
22
Malaria
Disease.
45 spp. of Anopheles

• Limitations
• Cooler seasons (Plasmodium falciparum cannot
  complete growth cycle below 20oC (68oF).
• Will be able to survive at higher altitudes and
  latitudes.

From Melanie Dow,BI489, Fall 2008
23
Warming ?Drought, Fire, and Bark beetles
Millions of acres in N.A. (esp. Alaska and
B.C.)have suffered Climate Change consequences
Double whammy
Drought promotes fire. Warmer winters promote
Bark beetles previously decimated by cold winters.

• Then
• Drought stresses trees
• Stressed tree response often involves an
  increased free amino acid pool in cells
• Foliage ? more nutritious
• Insect development rate ? enhanced
• Outbreak ? exacerbated
• Trees ? further weakened.
• And the drought and stressed trees directly ?
  promote forest fires.

Yellowstone N.P. 2009
24
Carbon Dioxide and the Oceans
Atmosphere
CO2
CO2
CO2
Fossil Fuel Combustion
Vegetation
Oceans
H2O CO2 ? H2CO3 ? H HCO3 Water
Carbon dioxide ? carbonic acid
Half the CO2 released since 1750 has ended up
here
From Stephanie Long,BI489, Fall 2008
http//earthtrends.wri.org/updates/node/245
25
Past, Present and Future?
NOTE A 0.1 drop in pH doubling of H
http//earthtrends.wri.org/updates/node/245
From Stephanie Long,BI489, Fall 2008
26
Problems for Marine Life - 1

• Calcium Carbonate Needed for skeletons or shells.
• Carbonic Acid releases Hydrogen ions (bad)
• -Carbonate Ion binds with Hydrogen ? becomes
  unavailable.
• Shell-building organisms can not use this ion for
  synthesis

Krill
From Stephanie Long,BI489, Fall 2008
27
Acidosis
Problems for Marine Life - 2

• Acidosis build-up of carbonic acid in body
  fluids
• Disrupts growth, respiration, reproduction.
• Affects Fish, squid, and countless other
  organisms.

From Stephanie Long,BI489, Fall 2008
28
Climate Change Threatens

• Agriculture i.e. our food source,
• Forests i.e. our building materials,
• Fisheries i.e. our food source.
• Risk
• Probability of an event
• Times
• Severity should it occur.
• These potential consequences are not trivial.
• The cost should global warming happen will
  likely be immense.
• Lets explore the scientific consensus .

29
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC
Established by U.N. Environment Programme and
World Meteorological Union.Composed of thousands
of atmospheric scientists and climate scientists
throughout the world who review literature,
evaluate what is happening, and provide
consensus summaries. Reported 1990. 1995, 2001,
and 2007

• AR-4 Fourth Assessment Report Feb 2007
• Warming of the climate system is unequivocal
  
• Most of the observed increase in globally
  averaged temperatures since the mid 20th century
  is very likely due to the observed increase in
  anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.
  
• Very likely gt 90

30
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC

• The understanding of anthropogenic warming and
  cooling influences on climate has improved since
  the Third Assessment Report TAR 2001 leading to
  very high confidence that the globally averaged
  net effect of human activities since 1750 has
  been one of warming, with a radiative forcing of
  1.6 (range 0.6 2.4)
• very high confidence gt 90

31
Overall Regional Trends
http//www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/wg1/fig2-9.htm
While global average increased, some areas
decreased.
This is why climate change is a better term
than global warming.
32
Is there a Consensus?

• If we are to accept that a scientific consensus
  exists, what proportion of climatologists should
  agree with the IPCC conclusions?
• 2009 Survey by Peter Doran and Maggie Zimmerman
  of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University
  of Illinois at Chicago
• EOS 90 (3)22
• 97 of responding active climatologists agree.

http//tigger.uic.edu/pdoran/012009_Doran_final.p
df
33
Is there a Consensus?

• If we are to accept that a scientific consensus
  exists, what proportion of professional
  scientific societies and academies of science
  (incorporating the national academies of science
  of the industrialized nations) that have
  developed statements should agree with the IPCC
  conclusions?
• 100

http//www.ucsusa.org/ssi/climate-change/scientifi
c-consensus-on.html
http//www.climateark.org/shared/reader/welcome.as
px?linkid37628
http//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_opinion_on
_climate_change
34
Is there a Consensus?

• If we are to accept that a scientific consensus
  exists, what should the U.S. National Academy of
  Science have concluded following a review of TAR,
  the Third IPCC Assessment Report (2001)?
• "Greenhouse gases are accumulating in Earth's
  atmosphere as a result of human activities,
  causing surface air temperatures and subsurface
  ocean temperatures to rise."

http//www.climateark.org/shared/reader/welcome.as
px?linkid37628
35
Is there a Consensus?

• If there were a scientific challenge to this
  earlier IPCC conclusion, of a sample of
  peer-reviewed publications in the major
  scientific research journals, what percentage
  should we find not agreeing with the IPCC view?
• Oreskes reported in the premier research
  journal Science ?0

http//www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/306/570
2/1686
36
Is there a Consensus?

• If we are to accept a consensus - between 2000
  and 2008 what percentage of research manuscripts
  submitted to the major scientific research
  journal (Science) might have disagreed with the
  IPCC view?
• 0

Kennedy 2009 personal communication
37
Why Do Some Of Us Think There is Not a Consensus?

• Mainstream Media
• Consistently promote controversy even when it
  doesnt exist.
• Seek to offer balance even when there is no
  credible contrary view.
• Handful of contrarian scientists.
• About half a dozen current or retired scientists
  funded by energy corporations.
• Corporate funded institutes and think tanks.
• Do they have a consensus?

38
The Contrarian Consensus?

• There is no global warming.
• We actually have global cooling!
• But if there is warming, Carbon dioxide is not a
  problem water vapor is a more effective
  greenhouse gas.
• and theres more of it.
• Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide will be
  great for agriculture.
• There is global warming but its a natural cycle.
• There is global warming but it will be good for
  us.
• There is global warming it will not be good, but
  it will be more effective if we just adapt.

39

• So far focus on a summary of what the best
  available scientific evidence suggests.
• Now What Do We Do?
• Either personal choice,
• or collective political responses
• Indeed, now we have to get political.

40
So, What Should We Do?

• Personal
• Be the change you wish to see in the world.
• Mahatma Gandhi
• The cumulative impact of millions of painless
  choices can be immense.
• Energy and climate change conference, 2007

41
So, What Should We Do?

• Personal
• Focus on energy and make choices that reduce our
  energy / resource consumption.
• Local
• Join groups and work with others to reduce energy
  / resource consumption
• Campus (Southeast) Green Coalition (meets today
  in Kent 335 following this talk)
• Community Southeast Missouri Climate Protection
  Initiative (http//cstl.semo.edu/semocpi) meets
  Thursday October 22nd 700 p.m. Broadway Books
  Coffee Roasting Co, 605 Broadway.

42
Federal Legislation
So, what is being proposed to address the problem?

• HR 2454 The American Clean Energy and Security
  Act of 2009 (ACES)
• aka The Waxman-Markey Bill.
• A Cape Trade Proposal approved by the U.S.
  House of Representatives on June 26, 2009 by a
  vote of 219-212.
• Cash for Clunkers was an amendment to this.

43
Federal Legislation

• THE CAP
• HR 2454 Would reduce United States' GHG
  emissions
• 3 of 2005 level by 2012
• 17 of 2005 level by 2020
• 42 of 2005 level by 2030,
• and 80 of 2005 level by 2050.

http//www.grist.org/article/2009-06-03-waxman-mar
key-bill-breakdown/
44
Federal Legislation

• Who Is Covered?
• Stationary sources emitting over 25,000 tons GHG
  per year,
• Refineries and importers of petroleum fuels,
• Natural gas distributors,

http//www.pewclimate.org/docUploads/Waxman-Markey
-short-summary-revised-June26.pdf
45
Federal Legislation

• The Cap component allocates 85 of GHG emissions
  permits free (reducing over time) amongst which
• 30 go to utilities but they want more,
• 10 go to state governments,
• 9 go to natural gas companies,
• 3 go to the auto industry,
• THE TRADE
• If a company cuts emissions beyond limit of
  permits
• can bank them for future use, or
• sell them on open market to companies unable to
  achieve required reductions.
• If company exceeds limits, fine is twice market
  value of permits needed.

http//www.grist.org/article/2009-06-03-waxman-mar
key-bill-breakdown/
46
Carbon Credits or Offsets

• Or companies allowed to purchase offsets
• Carbon Offsets occur when an individual or
  company contributes funds to ventures that
  sequester or capture carbon to the extent that
  the offending company produces it.
• e.g.
• Forestation or forest protection,
• Renewable energy generation (averting fossil fuel
  combustion),

47
Federal Legislation

• The final 15 (increasing over time) up for
  auction,
• Revenue used to
• Offset low-income family costs,
• Prevent international deforestation,
• Adapt to negative effects of Climate Change,
• RD ? clean energy and energy efficient
  technologies,
• International assistance in responding to CC.
• Assist workers in transition.

http//www.grist.org/article/2009-06-03-waxman-mar
key-bill-breakdown/
48
Other Components of HR2454

• Promote enhanced energy efficiency in buildings,
  appliances and electricity generation.
• Coal-fired power plants
• Plants built between 2009 2020 adopt carbon
  capture and sequestration technology (when
  available) .
• By 2025 all power plants built after 2005 must
  capture 50 of carbon emissions,
• Plants built after 2020 must capture 65,
• Cash for clunkers,
• Promotion of electric vehicles and PHEVs.
• Promotes electricity grid and transmission
  improvements.

49
Other Components

• Includes a Renewable Electricity Standard that
  requires utilities providing over 4 million MW to
  produce 20 of electricity from renewable fuels
  by 2020 (5 can be from increased efficiency).

50
COST

• Congressional Budget Office estimate of
  individual economic consequence
• Average household annual cost 175.00.
• Households in lowest 20 income range benefit
  40.00.
• Environmental Protection Agency estimate
• Household cost of 80.00 - 111.00.
• U.S. Energy Information Administration estimate
• Household cost of 83.00 per year.

http//mediamattersaction.org/factcheck/2009092800
05
http//www.pewclimate.org/docUploads/Waxman-Markey
-short-summary-revised-June26.pdf
51
THE BALANCEGores An Inconvenient Truth
52
But Does It Do Enough?

• UN report concludes global impacts are arriving
  faster than IPCC predicted.
• Dr. James Hansen , Climatologist and Head, NASA
  Goddard Institute for Space Studies
• Used to be thought.550 ppm would be ok,
• Then thought that.450 ppm would be ok,
• Now a growing concern that 350 ppm might be
  required.
• http//stage.350.org/ October 24th
• International Day of Climate Action

53
Senate Bill

• Barbara Boxer (D-CA) Committee on Environment
  Public Works John Kerry (D-MA) Foreign
  Relations Committee No .
• Clean Energy Jobs and American Power Act
• 10 billion investment to develop Carbon Capture
  and Sequestration (CCS) technology for coal.
• Promotes natural gas.
• Promotes cautious development of nuclear
  energy.
• Promotes Renewable Energy Energy Efficiency.

http//www.realclearpolitics.com/politics_nation/2
009/09/kerry_boxer_climate_change_bill.html
54
Senate Bill

• Targets
• 20 below 2005 level by 2020
• 80 by 2050.
• Producers of gt 25,000 tons CO2 per year.
• Affects 2 of U.S. businesses, not including
• Agriculture 98 of U.S. businesses.

http//kerry.senate.gov/cfm/record.cfm?id318435
http//www.realclearpolitics.com/politics_nation/2
009/09/kerry_boxer_climate_change_bill.html
55
American Energy Act Republican Response

• Promotes oil drilling in Continental Shelf
  Wildlife Refuges (such as Arctic national
  Wildlife Refuge),
• But (drill, baby, drill!) oil is the problem
  not the solution.
• Fast tracks nuclear plant construction,
• OK so long as we have caution and safety in mind.
• Promotes oil refinery construction (e.g. in
  closed military bases),
• But (again) oil is the problem not the
  solution.
• Promotes oil shale technology,
• But (yet again) oil is the problem not the
  solution, and this technology is energy
  inefficient and destructive.
• Does not address any Greenhouse Gas issues.

http//www.gop.gov/energy
56
Environmental Protection Agency Action

• April 2nd 2007 the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that
  GHGs (including CO2) are air pollutants covered
  by the CAA.
• September 30th 2009 EPA issued a Proposed Rule
• Addresses nearly 70 of stationary source
  emissions (inc. power plants, refineries, cement
  producers),
• Does NOT address small farms, restaurants, small
  businesses,
• Targets 6 major GHGs
• Carbon dioxide
• Methane
• Nitrous Oxide
• Hydrofluorocarbons flame retardants, refrigerant,
  propellants CFC replacements
• Perfluorocarbons refrigerant, CFC replacements,
  several medical procedures
• Sullfur hexafluoride electrical industry

http//epa.gov/nsr/fs20090930action.html
57
Environmental Protection Agency Action

• Operating permits to be required for emitters of
  25,000 tons per year (tpy) CO2e.
• Prevention of Significant Deterioration (PSD)
  portion of New Source Review (NSR) regs
  standards.
• Current emitters without planned modifications
• After 5 years (standard cycle) need to include
  GHG data in applications,
• New or Modified emitters
• Need to apply for revisions that incorporate best
  available control technology and energy
  efficiency measures,
• Controls to be determined on case-by-case basis.
• Criteria Pollutant Rules
• If standards not approved, GHG thresholds become
  100 250 tpy.

http//epa.gov/nsr/fs20090930action.html
58
International Action

• 1997 Kyoto Protocol
• By 2007 175 countries had endorsed
• Only two developed nations had not
• Australia
• signed Dec 2007.
• United States
• Resistance by Congress and campaign of deception
  and suppression by Bush Administration.

59
International Action

• 2009 U.N. Climate Conference in Copenhagen,
  Denmark - COP15
• How much are the industrialized countries willing
  to reduce their emissions of greenhouse gases? 
• How much are major developing countries such as
  China and India willing to do to limit the growth
  of their emissions? 
• How is the help needed by developing countries to
  engage in reducing their emissions and adapting
  to the impacts of climate change going to be
  financed?
• How is that money going to be managed?

60
So, What Should We Do?

• Political
• Contact State and Federal Representatives to urge
  them to support effective, real, meaningful
  climate change legislation that will reduce GHG
  production
• To send an e-letter to Senators Bond and
  McCaskill visit the Union of Concerned Scientists
  sitehttp//action.lcv.org/campaign/energy_oct09/
  6k3i774vjjwne6e
• To submit a written letter use local
  addressSenator Kit Bond 555 Independence St
  1500Cape Girardeau, MO 63703-6235(573)
  334-7044 http//bond.senate.gov/public/

61
So, What Should We Do?

• Political
• To submit a written letter use local
  addressSenator Claire McCaskill 555
  Independence StCape Girardeau, MO
  63703-6235(573) 651-0964 http//mccaskill.senat
  e.gov/contact/
• Congresswoman JoAnn Emerson 339 Broadway StCape
  Girardeau, MO 63701-7330(573) 335-0101http//www
  .house.gov/emerson/

62
The Contrarian Consensus?

• There is no global warming.
• We actually have global cooling!
• But if there is warming, Carbon dioxide is not a
  problem water vapor is a more effective
  greenhouse gas.
• and theres more of it.
• Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide will be
  great for agriculture.
• There is global warming but its a natural cycle.
• There is global warming but it will be good for
  us.
• There is global warming it will not be good, but
  it will be more effective if we just adapt.

63
1)There is no global warming.
Michael Crichtons U.S. Temperature Graph
1) Michael Crichtons State of Fear was
published in 2004, so the data used could have
been more recent than the last century.
2) But Crichton stopped the 5 year running mean
the darker line in 1995.
3) So, lets extend the lines to include more
current data.
When does the line terminate?
64
U.S Average Temperature Trend
Updated
The Crichton Graph
The pattern is revealed
http//data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/
65
There isnt a global temperature increase its
just a function of the Urban Heat Island effect
A composite of hundreds of satellite images all
taken at night.
If this were the case, at what latitudes would
the temperature anomalies be?
http//gristmill.grist.org/story/2006/10/26/224634
/48
66
So, where is it?
http//gristmill.grist.org/story/2006/10/26/224634
/48
Anyway, actually the planet is cooling.
67
The Contrarian Consensus?

• There is no global warming.
• We actually have global cooling!
• But if there is warming, Carbon dioxide is not a
  problem water vapor is a more effective
  greenhouse gas.
• and theres more of it.
• Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide will be
  great for agriculture.
• There is global warming but its a natural cycle.
• There is global warming but it will be good for
  us.
• There is global warming it will not be good, but
  it will be more effective if we just adapt.

68
Global Temperatures 1880 2008Goddard Institute
for Space Studies
IPCC 2007 11 of the last 12 years are among
twelve hottest on record
The ten warmest years all occur within the
12-year period 1997-2008.
http//data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2008/
69
The temperature is actually declining
Christopher (Lord) Monckton of Brenchley
Data from the Hadley Center University of
Alabama (Huntsville) show a cooling planet.
70
http//data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/Fig.C.lrg
.gif
71
Is the Hadley Center suggesting cooling?
Apparently not
http//hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcrut3/diagnostics/c
omparison.html
72
And what does the University of Alabama
(Huntsville) conclude?
June 2008 Newswise Global trend since Nov. 16,
1978 0.13 C per decade A La Niña Pacific
Ocean cooling event continues to drive tropical
and global temperatures.
2) Water vapor is more important than CO2.
3) Increased CO2 will be beneficial.
4) Its all a natural cycle.
73
The Contrarian Consensus?

• There is no global warming.
• We actually have global cooling!
• But if there is warming, Carbon dioxide is not a
  problem water vapor is a more effective
  greenhouse gas.
• and theres more of it.
• Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide will be
  great for agriculture.
• There is global warming but its a natural cycle.
• There is global warming but it will be good for
  us.
• There is global warming it will not be good, but
  it will be more effective if we just adapt.

74
What is the most important atmospheric component
to us?

• Component Percent by Volume
• 1 Nitrogen As Now 78.08
• 2 Oxygen O2 As Now 20.94
• 3 Argon As Now 0.934
• 4 Carbon dioxide 0.0285 ? 0.035
• 5 Neon As Now 0.00182
• 6 Helium As Now 0.00052
• 7 Methane 0.00005 ? 0.00015
• 8 Krypton As Now 0.00011
• 9 Hydrogen As Now 0.00005
• Nitrous oxide 0.0000285 ? 0.00005
• Xenon As Now 0.000009
• Ozone As Now 0.000004
• Water Vapor As Now 0 4
• Chlorofluorocarbons ------- 0.000000000750

App. 1750 Now
75
Problem

• Mainly - -
• It is true that water vapor has a GH effect by
  stabilizing and warming locally, but
• Unlike other components, water vapor has a short
  life expectancy a few days cf. years, decades,
  or centuries for other GHG components, and
  finally
• Water vapor is a short term local response to
  climate change not a cause.

76
The Contrarian Consensus?

• There is no global warming.
• We actually have global cooling!
• But if there is warming, Carbon dioxide is not a
  problem water vapor is a more effective
  greenhouse gas.
• and theres more of it.
• Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide will be
  great for agriculture.
• There is global warming but its a natural cycle.
• There is global warming but it will be good for
  us.
• There is global warming it will not be good, but
  it will be more effective if we just adapt.

77
Increased CO2 is Beneficial?

• A Skeptic Argument
• Plants use CO2 in photosynthesis.
• Animals produce CO2 in respiration.
• Increased CO2 must be beneficial to plants.
• Indian agricultural productivity has increased.
• See any problems???
• 1 and 2 are typical half truths
• Plants both photosynthesize respire
• Naïvely assumes CO2 is limiting factor in all
  plant growth.
• Assumes all plant species in a community will
  increase the same, i.e. no competitive
  differences exist amongst them.
• But increased temperature decreases crop yield.
• Is Indian increase due to CO2? Why accept this?

Reich, PB, Hungate BA, Luo Y 2006. Annual Review
of Ecology Systematics. 37 611-636.
78
Von Liebigs Law of the Minimum Plant growth
is limited by the critical factor that Is in
shortest supply. In fact in most cases, soil
nutrients Nitrogen (N), Phosphorous (P),
Potassium (K),
CO2 enrichment affects annual plant communities
both in terms of productivity and species
composition The effect of CO2 on such systems
may depend upon other resources such as light
and nutrients. Zangerl and Bazzaz 1984
Oecologia 62 (3) 412 417.
Plant species that seem to respond best are early
successional species (disturbed area invaders),
spp we call weeds. So consequence may be
.more herbicides.
79
The Contrarian Consensus?

• There is no global warming.
• We actually have global cooling!
• But if there is warming, Carbon dioxide is not a
  problem water vapor is a more effective
  greenhouse gas.
• and theres more of it.
• Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide will be
  great for agriculture.
• There is global warming but its a natural cycle.
• There is global warming but it will be good for
  us.
• There is global warming it will not be good, but
  it will be more effective if we just adapt.

80
Coincidence in the three cycles

• When all the Milankovitch cycles (alone) are
  taken into account, the present trend should be
  towards a cooler climate in the Northern
  Hemisphere, with extending glaciation.

81
Isnt it all Solar Activity?
Data reported in The Great Global Warming
Swindle (2007) seem to suggest so. But why
stop in 1980?
Because if we dont the argumentfalters.
82
Recent Solar Activity
If its all solar activity, what should be
happening now?
http//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming
83
The Contrarian Consensus?

• There is no global warming.
• We actually have global cooling!
• But if there is warming, Carbon dioxide is not a
  problem water vapor is a more effective
  greenhouse gas.
• and theres more of it.
• Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide will be
  great for agriculture.
• There is global warming but its a natural cycle.
• There is global warming but it will be good for
  us.
• There is global warming it will not be good, but
  it will be more effective if we just adapt.

84
Jeez!.....

• Where have you been?

85
The Contrarian Consensus?

• There is no global warming.
• We actually have global cooling!
• But if there is warming, Carbon dioxide is not a
  problem water vapor is a more effective
  greenhouse gas.
• and theres more of it.
• Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide will be
  great for agriculture.
• There is global warming but its a natural cycle.
• There is global warming but it will be good for
  us.
• There is global warming it will not be good, but
  it will be more effective if we just adapt.

86
Jeez!.....

• Where have you been?

87
And Then

• 5) It will be good for us.
• 6) Better to adapt than resist.