Global Climate Change: Implications for Digital Government Research

1
Global Climate Change Implications for Digital
Government Research

• Digital Government Society Conference
• 22 May 2007
• Robert C. Worrest

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What Changes Will Likely Occur,and Why

• Diverse perspectives
• Science
• Economics / Technology
• Policy

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What Changes Will Likely Occur,and Why

• Diverse perspectives
• Science
• Economics / Technology
• Policy

4
What Changes Will Likely Occur,and Why

• Diverse perspectives
• Science
• Economics / Technology
• Policy

5
Science Background

• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
• Established in 1988 (WMO UNEP)
• Assess the scientific, technical, and
  socioeconomic information relevant to
  understanding the risks associated with
  human-induced climate change
• Bases assessments on published and peer-reviewed
  scientific and technical literature

6
Science Background

• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
• Established in 1988 (WMO UNEP)
• Assess the scientific, technical, and
  socioeconomic information relevant to
  understanding the risks associated with
  human-induced climate change
• Bases assessments on published and peer-reviewed
  scientific and technical literature

7
Science Background

• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
• Established in 1988 (WMO UNEP)
• Assess the scientific, technical, and
  socioeconomic information relevant to
  understanding the risks associated with
  human-induced climate change
• Bases assessments on published and peer-reviewed
  scientific and technical literature

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Major components needed to understand the climate
system and climate change
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Science Background

• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
• Working Group I (scientific aspects of the
  climate system and climate change)
• Working Group II (vulnerability of socioeconomic
  and natural systems to climate change, negative
  and positive consequences of climate change, and
  adaptation options)
• Working Group III (options for limiting
  greenhouse gas emissions and otherwise mitigating
  climate change)

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Science Background

• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
• Working Group I (scientific aspects of the
  climate system and climate change)
• Working Group II (vulnerability of socioeconomic
  and natural systems to climate change, negative
  and positive consequences of climate change, and
  adaptation options)
• Working Group III (options for limiting
  greenhouse gas emissions and otherwise mitigating
  climate change)

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Science Background

• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
• Working Group I (scientific aspects of the
  climate system and climate change)
• Working Group II (vulnerability of socioeconomic
  and natural systems to climate change, negative
  and positive consequences of climate change, and
  adaptation options)
• Working Group III (options for limiting
  greenhouse gas emissions and otherwise mitigating
  climate change)

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Science Background

• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth
  Assessment Report (2007)
• 2500 Scientific Expert Reviewers
• 800 Contributing Authors and
• 450 Lead Authors from
• 130 Countries
• 6 years work
• 1 report

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Working Group I

• Contribution to Fourth Assessment Report
• Climate Change 2007 The Physical Science Basis
• Global atmospheric concentrations of CO2, CH4,
  and N20 have increased markedly as a result of
  human activities since 1750
• Far exceed pre-industrial values determined from
  ice cores spanning thousands of years
• Global increases in CO2 concentration due
  primarily to fossil fuel use and land-use change
• Global increases in CH4 and N20 primarily due to
  agriculture

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Working Group I

• Contribution to Fourth Assessment Report
• Climate Change 2007 The Physical Science Basis
• Global atmospheric concentrations of CO2, CH4,
  and N20 have increased markedly as a result of
  human activities since 1750
• Far exceed pre-industrial values determined from
  ice cores spanning thousands of years
• Global increases in CO2 concentration due
  primarily to fossil fuel use and land-use change
• Global increases in CH4 and N20 primarily due to
  agriculture

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Working Group I

• Contribution to Fourth Assessment Report
• Climate Change 2007 The Physical Science Basis
• Global atmospheric concentrations of CO2, CH4,
  and N20 have increased markedly as a result of
  human activities since 1750
• Far exceed pre-industrial values determined from
  ice cores spanning thousands of years
• Global increases in CO2 concentration due
  primarily to fossil fuel use and land-use change
• Global increases in CH4 and N20 primarily due to
  agriculture

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Working Group I (cont.)

• Direct observations of recent climate change
• Understanding of anthropogenic warming and
  cooling influences improved since the Third
  Assessment Report, leading to a very high
  confidence (90 chance of being correct) that
  global average net effect of human activities
  since 1750 has been one of warming
• Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as
  is now evident from observations of increases in
  global average air and ocean temperatures,
  widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising
  global average sea level

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Working Group I (cont.)

• Direct observations of recent climate change
• Understanding of anthropogenic warming and
  cooling influences improved since the Third
  Assessment Report, leading to a very high
  confidence (90 chance of being correct) that
  global average net effect of human activities
  since 1750 has been one of warming
• Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as
  is now evident from observations of increases in
  global average air and ocean temperatures,
  widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising
  global average sea level

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Working Group I (cont.)

• Direct observations of recent climate change
• At continental, regional and ocean basin scales,
  numerous long-term changes in climate have been
  observed, including changes in arctic
  temperatures and ice, widespread changes in
  precipitation amounts, ocean salinity, wind
  patterns and aspects of extreme weather
  (droughts, heavy precipitation, heat waves,
  intensity of tropical cyclones)

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Working Group I (cont.)

• Paleoclimatic perspective
• Paleoclimatic information supports the
  interpretation that the warmth of the last half
  century is unusual in at least the previous 1,300
  years
• Last time the polar regions were significantly
  warmer than present for an extended period (about
  125,000 years ago), reductions in polar ice
  volume led to 4 to 6 m of sea level rise

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Working Group I (cont.)

• Paleoclimatic perspective
• Paleoclimatic information supports the
  interpretation that the warmth of the last half
  century is unusual in at least the previous 1,300
  years
• Last time the polar regions were significantly
  warmer than present for an extended period (about
  125,000 years ago), reductions in polar ice
  volume led to 4 to 6 m of sea level rise

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Working Group I (cont.)

• Understanding and attributing climate change
• Most of the observed increase in global average
  temperatures since the mid-20th century is very
  likely (gt90) due to the observed increase in
  anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions (advance
  since TAR gt66)
• Discernible human influences now extend to other
  aspects of climate, including ocean warming,
  continental-average temperatures, temperature
  extremes and wind patterns

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Climate model simulations of the Earths
temperature variations compared with observed
changes
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Working Group I (cont.)

• Understanding and attributing climate change
• Most of the observed increase in global average
  temperatures since the mid-20th century is very
  likely (gt90) due to the observed increase in
  anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions (advance
  since TAR gt66)
• Discernible human influences now extend to other
  aspects of climate, including ocean warming,
  continental-average temperatures, temperature
  extremes and wind patterns

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Working Group I (cont.)

• Projections of future changes in climate
• For the next two decades, a warming of about
  0.2C per decade is projected for a range of IPCC
  Special Report on Emission Scenarios
• Continued greenhouse gas emissions at or above
  current rates would cause further warming and
  induce many changes in the global climate system
  during the 21st century that would very likely be
  larger than those observed during the 20th
  century

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Working Group I (cont.)

• Projections of future changes in climate
• For the next two decades, a warming of about
  0.2C per decade is projected for a range of IPCC
  Special Report on Emission Scenarios
• Continued greenhouse gas emissions at or above
  current rates would cause further warming and
  induce many changes in the global climate system
  during the 21st century that would very likely be
  larger than those observed during the 20th
  century

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Working Group I (cont.)

• Projections of future changes in climate
• Even if greenhouse gas concentrations were to be
  stabilized, anthropogenic warming and sea level
  rise would continue for centuries due to the time
  scales associated with climate processes and
  feedbacks

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Working Group II

• Contribution to Fourth Assessment Report
• Climate Change 2007 Impacts, Adaptation and
  Vulnerability

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Working Group III

• Contribution to Fourth Assessment Report
• Climate Change 2007 Mitigation of Climate
  Change

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Economics / Technology Background

• "Stabilization Wedges Solving the Climate
  Problem for the next 50 Years with Current
  Technologies
• Pacala and Socolow (2004)
• The Economics of Climate Change The Stern
  Review
• Nicholas Stern (2007)
• U.S. Climate Action Report-2006
• Fourth National Communication of the United
  States of America Under the United Nations
  Framework Convention on Climate Change (2007)
• Growth and Responsibility in the World Economy
• G8 Summit 2007 Draft Summit Declarations

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The Economics of Climate Change The Stern
Review

• Conclusions
• There is still time to avoid the worst impacts of
  climate change, if we take strong action now
• Climate change could have very serious impacts on
  growth and development
• The costs of stabilizing the climate are
  significant but manageable delay would be
  dangerous and much more costly

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The Economics of Climate Change The Stern
Review

• Conclusions (cont.)
• Action on climate change is required across all
  countries, and it need not cap the aspirations
  for growth of rich or poor countries
• A range of options exists to cut emissions
  strong, deliberate policy action is required to
  motivate their take-up
• Climate change demands an international response,
  based on a shared understanding of long-term
  goals and agreement on frameworks for action

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Growth and Responsibility in the World Economy
(G8 Summit 2007)

• Climate Change and Energy Efficiency Challenge
  and Chance for the World Economy
• Fighting Climate Change
• Technology
• Carbon Markets
• Reducing Emissions from Deforestation
• Adapting to Climate Change
• Sustainable Buildings
• Transportation
• Power Generation

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Growth and Responsibility in the World Economy
(G8 Summit 2007)

• Climate Change and Energy Efficiency Challenge
  and Chance for the World Economy
• We understand that tackling climate change is an
  imperative not a choice. We firmly agree that
  resolute and concerted international action is
  urgently needed in order to reduce global
  greenhouse gas emissions and sustain our common
  basis of living.
• We are committed to taking strong and early
  action to tackle climate change in order to
  contribute our fair share to limit global warming
  to 2C.
• We acknowledge that the UN climate process is
  the appropriate forum for negotiating future
  global action on climate change.
• we will increase the energy efficiency of our
  economies so that energy consumption by 2020 will
  be at least 20 lower, compared to a
  business-as-usual scenario.

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Growth and Responsibility in the World Economy
(G8 Summit 2007)

• Climate Change and Energy Efficiency Challenge
  and Chance for the World Economy
• We understand that tackling climate change is an
  imperative not a choice. We firmly agree that
  resolute and concerted international action is
  urgently needed in order to reduce global
  greenhouse gas emissions and sustain our common
  basis of living.
• We are committed to taking strong and early
  action to tackle climate change in order to
  contribute our fair share to limit global warming
  to 2C.
• We acknowledge that the UN climate process is
  the appropriate forum for negotiating future
  global action on climate change.
• we will increase the energy efficiency of our
  economies so that energy consumption by 2020 will
  be at least 20 lower, compared to a
  business-as-usual scenario.

40
Growth and Responsibility in the World Economy
(G8 Summit 2007)

• Climate Change and Energy Efficiency Challenge
  and Chance for the World Economy
• We understand that tackling climate change is an
  imperative not a choice. We firmly agree that
  resolute and concerted international action is
  urgently needed in order to reduce global
  greenhouse gas emissions and sustain our common
  basis of living.
• We are committed to taking strong and early
  action to tackle climate change in order to
  contribute our fair share to limit global warming
  to 2C.
• We acknowledge that the UN climate process is
  the appropriate forum for negotiating future
  global action on climate change.
• we will increase the energy efficiency of our
  economies so that energy consumption by 2020 will
  be at least 20 lower, compared to a
  business-as-usual scenario.

41
Growth and Responsibility in the World Economy
(G8 Summit 2007)

• Climate Change and Energy Efficiency Challenge
  and Chance for the World Economy
• We understand that tackling climate change is an
  imperative not a choice. We firmly agree that
  resolute and concerted international action is
  urgently needed in order to reduce global
  greenhouse gas emissions and sustain our common
  basis of living.
• We are committed to taking strong and early
  action to tackle climate change in order to
  contribute our fair share to limit global warming
  to 2C.
• We acknowledge that the UN climate process is
  the appropriate forum for negotiating future
  global action on climate change.
• we will increase the energy efficiency of our
  economies so that energy consumption by 2020 will
  be at least 20 lower, compared to a
  business-as-usual scenario.

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Policy Background

• Meeting the Climate Challenge
• Recommendations of the International Climate
  Change Taskforce (2005)
• Agenda for Climate Action
• Pew Center on Global Climate Change (2006)
• The Path to Climate Sustainability
• Global Roundtable on Climate Change (2007)
• A Call for Action
• Consensus Principles and Recommendations from the
  U.S. Climate Action Partnership - a business and
  NGO partnership (2007)

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Policy Background (cont.)

• National Security and the Threat of Climate
  Change
• Military Advisory Board, the CNA Corporation
  (2007)
• Global Climate Change Security Oversight Act
  the Senate and House Intelligence Authorization
  Bills
• Director of National Intelligence Mike McConnell
  believes it is "appropriate" for global climate
  change to be considered in future National
  Intelligence Estimates

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Meeting the Climate Challenge

• Recommendations
• A long-term objective be established to prevent
  global average temperature from rising more than
  2C above the pre-industrial level, to limit the
  extent and magnitude of climate-change impacts
• A global framework be adopted that builds on the
  UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol, and enables all
  countries to be part of concerted action on
  climate change at the global level in the
  post-2012 period, on the basis of equity and
  common but differentiated responsibilities
• G8 governments establish national renewable
  portfolio standards to generate at least 25 of
  electricity from renewable energy sources by
  2025, with higher targets needed for some G8
  governments

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Meeting the Climate Challenge

• Recommendations (cont.)
• G8 governments increase their spending on
  research, development, and demonstration of
  advanced technologies for energy-efficient and
  low- and zero-carbon energy supply by two-fold or
  more by 2010, at the same time as adopting
  near-term strategies for the large-scale
  deployment of existing low- and no-carbon
  technologies
• The G8 and other major economies, including from
  the developing world, form a G8 Climate Group,
  to pursue technology agreements and related
  initiatives that will lead to large emissions
  reductions accepted by G8 Summit 2005

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Meeting the Climate Challenge

• Recommendations (cont.)
• The G8 Climate Group agree to shift their
  agricultural subsidies from food crops to
  biofuels, especially those derived from
  cellulosic materials, while implementing
  appropriate safeguards to ensure sustainable
  farming methods are encouraged, culturally and
  ecologically sensitive land preserved, and
  biodiversity protected
• All developed countries introduce national
  mandatory cap-and-trade systems for carbon
  emissions, and construct them to allow for their
  future integration into a single global market

47
Meeting the Climate Challenge

• Recommendations (cont.)
• Governments remove barriers to and increase
  investment in renewable energy and energy
  efficient technologies and practices through such
  measures as the phase-out of fossil fuel
  subsidies and requiring Export Credit Agencies
  and Multilateral Development Banks to adopt
  minimum efficiency or carbon intensity standards
  for projects they support
• Developed countries honor existing commitments to
  provide greater financial and technical
  assistance to help vulnerable countries adapt to
  climate change, including the commitments made at
  the seventh conference of the parties to the
  UNFCCC in 2001, and pursue the establishment of
  an international compensation fund to support
  disaster mitigation and preparedness

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Meeting the Climate Challenge

• Recommendations (cont.)
• Governments committed to action on climate change
  raise public awareness of the problem and build
  public support for climate policies by pledging
  to provide substantial long-term investment in
  effective climate communication activities

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A Call for Action

• Recommendations
• Congress needs to enact legislation as quickly as
  possible
• Maintain environmental goal
• Take a stepwise, cost-effective approach
• Cap and trade is essential
• Establish short- and mid-term GHG emission
  targets
• Complimentary policies and measures will be
  necessary

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A Call for Action

• Recommendations (cont.)
• Scope of coverage and point of regulation of the
  cap and trade program
• Emission offsets
• Emission allowance allocations
• Cost control measures
• Inventory and registry
• Credit for early action

51
National Security and the Threat of Climate
Change

• Recommendations
• National security consequences of climate change
  should be fully integrated into national security
  and national defense strategies
• U.S. should commit to a stronger national and
  international role to help stabilize climate
  change at levels that will avoid significant
  disruption to global security and stability
• U.S. should commit to global partnerships that
  help less developed nations build the capacity
  and resiliency to better manage climate impacts

52
National Security and the Threat of Climate
Change

• Recommendations
• National security consequences of climate change
  should be fully integrated into national security
  and national defense strategies
• U.S. should commit to a stronger national and
  international role to help stabilize climate
  change at levels that will avoid significant
  disruption to global security and stability
• U.S. should commit to global partnerships that
  help less developed nations build the capacity
  and resiliency to better manage climate impacts

53
National Security and the Threat of Climate
Change

• Recommendations
• National security consequences of climate change
  should be fully integrated into national security
  and national defense strategies
• U.S. should commit to a stronger national and
  international role to help stabilize climate
  change at levels that will avoid significant
  disruption to global security and stability
• U.S. should commit to global partnerships that
  help less developed nations build the capacity
  and resiliency to better manage climate impacts

54
National Security and the Threat of Climate
Change

• Recommendations (cont.)
• Department of Defense should enhance its
  operational capability by accelerating the
  adoption of improved business processes and
  innovative technologies that result in improved
  U.S. combat power through energy efficiency
• Department of Defense should conduct an
  assessment of the impact of U.S. military
  installations worldwide of rising sea levels,
  extreme weather events, and other projected
  climate change impacts over the next 30 to 40
  years

55
National Security and the Threat of Climate
Change

• Recommendations (cont.)
• Department of Defense should enhance its
  operational capability by accelerating the
  adoption of improved business processes and
  innovative technologies that result in improved
  U.S. combat power through energy efficiency
• Department of Defense should conduct an
  assessment of the impact of U.S. military
  installations worldwide of rising sea levels,
  extreme weather events, and other projected
  climate change impacts over the next 30 to 40
  years

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Letter to President George W. Bush

• Fifteen Committee Chairs from the U.S. House of
  Representatives
• U.S. leadership is critical to tackling this
  global threat. Congress is now preparing to do
  its part. Support is growing for aggressive
  legislation to cap global warming pollution and
  cut it dramatically over the coming decades.

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1 . Global Climate Change Security Oversight Act
(Introduced in Senate)S.1018.IS2 . Global
Climate Change Security Oversight Act (Introduced
in House)H.R.1961.IH3 . Expressing the sense
of Congress regarding the need for the United
States to address global climate change through
the negotiation of fair and effective
international commitments. (Introduced in
House)H.CON.RES.104.IH4 . Expressing the sense
of the Senate regarding the need for the United
States to address global climate change through
the negotiation of fair and effective
international commitments. (Introduced in
Senate)S.RES.30.IS5 . Expressing the sense of
the Senate regarding the need for the United
States to address global climate change through
the negotiation of fair and effective
international commitments. (Reported in
Senate)S.RES.30.RS6 . Climate Change Education
Act (Introduced in Senate)S.1389.IS7 .
Commending Vice President Al Gore on his
well-deserved recognition for the Academy
Award-winning documentary, An Inconvenient
Truth'. (Introduced in House)H.RES.197.IH8 .
Climate Stewardship Act of 2007 (Introduced in
House)H.R.620.IH9 . Climate Stewardship and
Innovation Act of 2007 (Introduced in
Senate)S.280.IS10 . Electric Utility Cap and
Trade Act of 2007 (Introduced in
Senate)S.317.IS11 . Global Warming Reduction
Act of 2007 (Introduced in Senate)S.485.IS12 .
Energy Policy Reform and Revitalization Act of
2007 (Introduced in House)H.R.2337.IH13 .
Global Warming Pollution Reduction Act
(Introduced in Senate)S.309.IS14 . Clean Air
Planning Act of 2007 (Introduced in
Senate)S.1177.IS15 . Safe Climate Act of 2007
(Introduced in House)H.R.1590.IH16 . TEAM up
for Energy Independence Act (Introduced in
House)H.R.182.IH17 . Save Our Climate Act of
2007 (Introduced in House)H.R.2069.IH18 .
Salmon Economic Analysis and Planning Act
(Introduced in House)H.R.1507.IH19 . Whereas
the United States is a Pacific nation (Engrossed
as Agreed to or Passed by House)H.RES.355.EH20
. Expressing the sense of the Congress that there
should be enacted a mandatory national program to
slow, stop and reverse emissions of greenhouse
gases. (Introduced in House)H.CON.RES.96.IH21
. Intelligence Authorization Act for Fiscal Year
2008 (Reported in House)H.R.2082.RH22 .
Hurricanes Katrina and Rita Environmental Justice
Act of 2007 (Introduced in House)H.R.1602.IH23
. Whereas the year 2007-2008 is the 50th
anniversary of the International Geophysical Year
(IGY) of 1957-1958 (Engrossed as Agreed to or
Passed by House)H.CON.RES.76.EH24 . Honoring
the 50th Anniversary of the International
Geophysical Year (IGY) and its past contributions
to space research, and looking forward to future
accomplishments. (Referred to Senate Committee
after being Received from House)H.CON.RES.76.RFS
25 . Recognizing and welcoming the leaders of
the Pacific Islands to Washington, D.C., and
commending the East-West Center for hosting the
Pacific Islands Conference of Leaders.
(Introduced in House)H.RES.355.IH26 . Whereas
the global celebration of World Water Day is an
initiative that grew out of the 1992 United
Nations Conference on Environment and Development
in Rio de Janeiro (Engrossed as Agreed to or
Passed by House)H.RES.196.EH27 . Honoring the
50th Anniversary of the International Geophysical
Year (IGY) and its past contributions to space
research, and looking forward to future
accomplishments. (Introduced in
House)H.CON.RES.76.IH28 . Whereas the global
celebration of World Water Day is an initiative
that grew out of the 1992 United Nations
Conference on Environment and Development in Rio
de Janeiro (Introduced in House)H.RES.196.IH29
. Intelligence Authorization Act for Fiscal Year
2008 (Referred to Senate Committee after being
Received from House)H.R.2082.RFS30 .
Intelligence Authorization Act for Fiscal Year
2008 (Engrossed as Agreed to or Passed by
House)H.R.2082.EH31 . Polar Bear Protection
Act of 2007 (Introduced in House)H.R.2327.IH32
. Ethanol Infrastructure Expansion Act of 2007
(Introduced in Senate)S.859.IS33 . Designating
April 20, 2007, as National and Global Youth
Service Day'. (Agreed to by Senate)S.RES.158.ATS
34 . Resolved, (Engrossed as Agreed to or Passed
by House)H.RES.202.EH35 . Clean Power Act of
2007 (Introduced in Senate)S.1201.IS36 .
Advanced Geothermal Energy Research and
Development Act of 2007 (Introduced in
House)H.R.2304.IH37 . Clean Air/Climate Change
Act of 2007 (Introduced in Senate)S.1168.IS38
. To provide a reduction in the aggregate
greenhouse gas emissions per unit of energy
consumed by vehicles and aircraft, and for other
purposes. (Introduced in House)H.R.2215.IH39 .
EAT Healthy America Act (Introduced in
House)H.R.1600.IH40 . Improved Passenger
Automobile Fuel Economy Act of 2007 (Introduced
in Senate)S.183.IS41 . United States-Brazil
Energy Cooperation Pact of 2007 (Introduced in
Senate)S.1007.IS42 . Northern Rockies
Ecosystem Protection Act (Introduced in
House)H.R.1975.IH43 . National Fuels
Initiative (Introduced in Senate)S.162.IS44 .
Oceans Conservation, Education, and National
Strategy for the 21st Century Act (Introduced in
House)H.R.21.IH45 . National Defense
Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2008 (Reported
in House)H.R.1585.RH46 . Border Security and
Immigration Reform Act of 2007 (Introduced in
Senate)S.330.IS47 . Comprehensive Immigration
Reform Act of 2007 (Placed on Calendar in
Senate)S.1348.PCS
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Robert C. Worrest, Ph.D. Chief Scientist National
Biological Information Infrastructure U.S.
Geological Survey rworrest_at_usgs.gov and Senior
Research Scientist Associate Director -
Washington Operations CIESIN, Columbia
University rworrest_at_ciesin.columbia.edu