Global Monsoon Team Lead

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The Climate Prediction CenterGlobal Monsoon
Monitoring Activity
Wassila M. Thiaw Climate Prediction Center

• Global Monsoon Team members
• Yun Fan
• Jon Gottschalck
• Wayne Higgins
• Vern Kousky
• Vadlamani Kumar
• Kingtse Mo
• Jae Schemm
• Wanqiu Wang
• Pingping Xie
• Soo-Hyun Yoo
• Qin Zhang

• Global Monsoon Team Lead
• Song Yang
• Regional Monsoon Group Leads
• Africa Wassila Thiaw
• Asia-Australia Muthuvel Chelliah
• North America Wei Shi
• South America Viviane Silva

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Outline

• Objectives
• Global monsoon briefing page features
• Climate risk assessments
• Domestic and International Outreach
• Future Development and challenges

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Climate Prediction CenterMission Statement

• We deliver climate monitoring, assessment, and
  prediction products for timescales from weeks to
  years to the Nation and the global community for
  the protection of life and property and the
  enhancement of the economy.

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Objectives

• Consolidate climate monitoring efforts at CPC
• Better understand the global monsoon systems
• Improve forecasts
• Provide advanced notice on potential climate and
  weather related hazards

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Current Data

• CPC unified gauge-based precipitation data
• Other CPC precipitation data sets
• NCEP reanalysis
• NCEP global forecast system and ensembles
• NCEP coupled forecast system
• Data from international partners

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Global Monsoon Web-Page Features
2. Current Status

• Recent evolution total and anomalies (Last 90,
  30, and 7 days)
• Sea surface temperature
• Winds (200 and 850 hPa)
• Velocity potential (200 hPa)
• Soil moisture
• Precipitation
• Outgoing longwave radiation
• Temperature 2 meter
• Regional monsoons briefing web pages

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Global Monsoon Monitoring Website
Global Patterns
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/global_monsoons/
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Velocity Potential and Precipitation Anomalies11
Jul 8 Oct 2008
200 hPa Velocity Potential Anomalies
Precipitation Anomalies
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Regional Monsoon Web-Page Features
2. Current Status

• Animation of weekly OLR, 200 hPa streamlines, and
  850 hPa winds
• Recent evolution (Last 180, 90, 30, and 7 days)
• Precipitation maps and time series
• Temperature 2 meter
• SST and soil moisture
• Winds and water vapor flux
• Weekly monsoon updates (PPT)
• Highlights (last 7 days)
• Recent evolution (Last 180, 90, 30, and 7 days)
• Week1 Week2 outlooks
• Summaries
• GFS Forecasts
• Seasonal monsoon summaries
• Annual monsoon reports

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Regional Precipitation Anomalies
90-day P anomaly Jul 9 Oct 7
90-day P anomaly Jul 11 Oct 9
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Global and RegionalClimate Risk Assessment
NOAA-USDA Joint Agricultural Weather Facility
(JAWF) Weekly Crop Bulletin
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Domestic and InternationalOutreach Potentials

• Email list
• Weekly ppt updates sent to over 400 people
• US Military
• Advance warning for coastline erosion
• Fishery protection
• NHC
• Advance warning of potential for Atlantic
  hurricane activity
• NWS WFOs
• Academic institutions

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Domestic and InternationalOutreach Potentials

• USAID Famine Early Warning System Network
• Support FEWSNET humanitarian assistance Africa,
  Afghanistan, and Central America
• USAID Asian Flood Network Africa Programs
• Support USAID/OFDA capacity building efforts
• National Meteorological Services
• Knowledge of the state of the global climate
• Improve local climate monitoring and predictions

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Future Development and Challenges

• Develop monsoon indices for all regions
• Develop forecast forums for monsoon regions
• Develop customer tailored products
• Challenges
• Limited predictability on both subseasonal and
  seasonal time scales
• Limited resources for Research and Development
• Inconsistency in current precipitation data

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The 2008 Global Monsoon Poster CPC Monsoon
Working Group

• During JJAS 08, both southwest US (AZ/NM) and
  NAM core area received above-average
  precipitation.
• Onset date July 04 (based on rainfall data) in
  AZ/NM region (average July 03).
• Very wet July associated with active tropical
  cyclone activities in the eastern equatorial
  Pacific and Gulf of California moisture surges.

Indian Monsoon
Global Monsoons Webpage http//www.cpc.ncep.noaa.
gov/products/Global_Monsoons For questions or
comments, please contact Song.Yang_at_noaa.gov (for
general issues about the CPC Global Monsoons
products) Muthuvel.Chelliah_at_noaa.gov (Asian-Austr
alian monsoons) Wei.Shi_at_noaa.gov (North
American monsoon) Viviane.Silva_at_noaa.gov (South
American monsoon) Wassila.Thiaw_at_noaa.gov (African
monsoons)

• The southwest summer 2008 monsoon rainfall over
  the Indian subcontinent was near to slightly
  above normal.
• Early season torrential rains along a broad
  swath of the Gangetic plains in the foothills of
  the Himalayas contributed to flooding in the
  region and positive anomalies in the seasonal
  mean map. Below normal rainfall occurred farther
  south in the peninsular region. However, later
  in the season the situation tended to reverse,
  leading to an overall near-normal rainfall season
  for the country as a whole.
• A prominent aspect of the large-scale pattern of
  precipitation in the region was a pronounced
  E-W dipole in the tropical Indian Ocean (not
  shown) with a positive anomaly center in the
  western Indian Ocean. In addition, an SST dipole
  was observed in the tropical Indian Ocean. The
  possible effects of these on the Indian monsoon
  rainfall, especially the flooding in northeastern
  India, are not clear and need to be studied.