CLIVAR SSG14 Development of a CLIVAR Road Map

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CLIVAR SSG-14 - Development of a CLIVAR Road Map

• Howard Cattle
• International CLIVAR Project Office
• National Oceanography Centre, Southampton, UK

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WCRP Strategic frameworkCoordinated Observation
and Prediction of the Earth System

• Reiterates WCRP objectives to determine the
  predictability of climate and the effect of human
  activities on climate
• Seeks to facilitate analysis and prediction of
  Earth System variability and change for practical
  applications of direct relevance, benefit and
  value to society

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WCRP Strategic Framework

• Move from physics-only to Earth-System models
  (with IGBP)
• Prediction across all timescales seamless
  prediction.
• Develop sustained climate observing system with
  GCOS, GEOSS
• Integration of models and data
• Use of data assimilation to initialize models
  over widest range of climate prediction
  timescales possible
• Synthesis through reanalysis (atmosphere, ocean,
  coupled)
• Link to applications through existing mechanisms
  (e.g. START, WCAP) new ones

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CLIVAR SSG-14, Buenos Aires, April 2006

• SSG-14 agenda built on outcomes of the CLIVAR
  Conference and the CLIVAR Assessment/SSG-13
  (Baltimore June 2004).
• SSG-13 refocussed CLIVAR onto the cross-cutting
  topics of
• ENSO and other modes of tropical variability
• Monsoons
• Decadal variability and the thermohaline
  circulation
• Anthropogenic climate change (ACC)

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SSG-14

• Sought development of CLIVAR Roadmap against
  science themes of ENSO/TV, Monsoons, Decadal/THC,
  ACC, Role of Oceans in Climate, Global Modeling
  Prediction.
• Was organized around a series of mini-assessments
  of current status of each themes.
• Background of sponsor/context setting WCRP, IOC,
  WMO, IGBP

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CLIVAR Road Map - key timescales/issues

• IPCC AR5, (Assume Report by 2013 with inputs by
  2011)
• CLIVAR sunset date of 2013 - what will be the
  legacy of CLIVAR
• What will follow CLIVAR (and sunsets of other
  WCRP Projects - issue for the JSC)

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SSG-14 - procedure for mini assessments

• For each theme area
• Theme Lead Overview State of science, current
  status, science directions, needs provided both
  as written papers presentations
• Roundtable contributions How is CLIVAR
  addressing this theme? Panel Working Group
  contributions to crosscut theme
• Theme Assessor Developing the road map, path
  ahead. Synthesis. Gap analysis, redundancies.
  What will we do by 2007, 2010, 2013? Where will
  we be at these milestones?

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CLIVAR Road Map - key elementsENSO and other
modes of tropical variability

• Tropical ocean observing system
• Develop and sustain the tropical ocean observing
  system implement the Indian Ocean array as a
  component of Indian Ocean observing system
  development
• Realise key planned CLIVAR field experiments,
• e.g. TACE, PUMP, .
• Improve representation of the background state,
  and of tropical modes of variability in coupled
  models for S-I prediction and in time for IPCC
  AR5
• Develop experimental decadal prediction for
  tropics.
• Establish sensitivity of ENSO to past climate
  change using paleoclimate proxies and coordinated
  modelling experiments

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CLIVAR Road MapENSO other modes of tropical
variability
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CLIVAR Road Map - key elementsMonsoons

• Build on CLIVAR VAMOS SALLJEX, NAME field
  experiments AMMA to help improve predictive
  model capabilities
• Progressive improvement and transition of
  predictive capabilities from research/experimental
  to operations and applications
• Improve understanding and representation in
  models of the diurnal cycle, intraseasonal
  variability and the tropical mean state
• Support for concept of year of coordinated
  observing, modeling and forecasting of the
  tropics for 2008, to address challenge of
  organised convection
• Develop understanding of the role of ocean
  variability for the monsoons, with ocean basin
  panels

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CLIVAR Road Map Monsoons
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CLIVAR Road Map - Monsoons
Coordinate with GEWEX on A-A Monsoon
(Monsoon-Asian Hydro-Atmospheric Scientific
Research and Prediction Initiative MAHASRI), CEOP
II/CIMS) GEWEX input to VOCALS
NAME
AMMA
MESA
MONSOON
LA PLATA
VOCALS
Existing GEWEX-CLIVAR Interactions
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CLIVAR Road Map - key elementsDecadal
variability and the THC

• Seek to reduce uncertainties regarding mechanisms
  of MOC variability and views on whether its is
  changing/slowing
• Sustained monitoring the MOC (including
  identification of proxies for monitoring)
• Improve understanding of mechanisms of
  decadal-interdecadal MOC variability
• Establish extent to which decadal prediction is
  possible
• Move to initialization-based approaches to
  decadal predictability studies

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CLIVAR Road MapDecadal variability and the THC
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CLIVAR Road Map - key elementsAnthropogenic
climate change (1)

• Develop Earth System Models through WGCM with
  IGBP for input to AR5 coordination of AR5 runs
• Understand feedbacks introduced by new components
  and reduce uncertainties in their representation
• Develop Climate Change Detection and Monitoring
  Studies
• Key effort on ocean indices inputs to AR5
• Synthesis of Climate Change Detection and
  Monitoring indices as part of CLIVAR legacy

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CLIVAR Road Map - key elementsAnthropogenic
climate change (2)

• Climate change - The CLIVAR perspective
• 2007 - pan-CLIVAR review paper on assessment of
  anthropogenic forcing on natural models of
  variability, based on AR4 integrations
  atmosphere/ocean data analysis
• 2013 repeat, but based on IPCC AR5 (Earth System
  Model) integrations
• 2010
• Pan-CLIVAR assessment of the merits of the WCRP
  seamless prediction strategy (weather to long
  term climate change)
• Viewpoint on best way of organizing ACC research
  post-CLIVAR

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CLIVAR Road MapAnthropogenic Climate Change
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CLIVAR Road Map - key elementsModelling (1)

• WGCM lead in Earth System model development (with
  IGBP) realisation in AR5 runs
• Development of decadal predictions
• TFSP global seasonal prediction experiment
• There is currently untapped seasonal
  predictability due to interactions ( memory)
  among all the elements of the climate system
• Analysis of outcomes improved prospects for
  seasonal prediction. Continued experimentation
  realisation in operational centres
• Coordinated Ocean Reference Experiments ocean
  model development activities analysis of
  outcomes input to AR5 state of the art ocean
  models

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CLIVAR Road Map - key elementsModelling (2)

• Development of ocean reanalyses coupled
  reanalysis concept (with WOAP) including d/a
  aspects Realization of multiple model
  reanalyses input to AR5 development of coupled
  reanalyses Syntheses as part of CLIVAR legacy
  initial coupled reanalyses
• Various MIPS/numerical experiments (e.g. CFMIP,
  GLACE etc). Spin off to AR5 models inputs to
  operational centres
• CLIVAR role in development of WCRP seamless
  prediction concept (through WMP)

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CLIVAR Road MapModelling
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Ocean observations/CLIVAR legacy (1)

• Continue close cooperation with OOPC others
  through CLIVAR Basin Panels and CLIVAR Global
  Synthesis Observation Panel to develop
  sustained ocean observing system
• Complete validate multiple global reanalyses in
  time for IPCC AR5 assess ocean component of
  coupled reanalyses
• Stimulate international activity to evaluate the
  current state development vector of the global
  ocean observing system (revisit OceanObs99 in
  2008 timeframe?)
• Aim by the end of CLIVAR to have
• Developed a global description of subsurface
  ocean variability
• Have in place a truly global ocean observation
  system

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Ocean observations/CLIVAR legacy (1)

• Subgroup of SSG to work on 2013 vision/legacy
  develop data management requirements
• Choose a few foci crafted around the oceans role
  in climate e.g.
• Exchange (with atmosphere) including joint
  global flux project (with GEWEX) focused around
  water cycle
• Storage (heat/salt/CO2)
• Transports
• and utilise new observing capabilities to
  develop key datasets for CLIVAR legacy
• Develop common climate indices for
  models/observations as component
• Develop concept of post-CLIVAR activity (with
  GEWEX/IGBP). Possible theme of data synthesis
  decade post-CLIVAR

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CLIVAR Road MapOceans Climate/CLIVAR legacy
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Performance metrics for CLIVAR

• ??New resources enabled by leveraging off of
  CLIVAR efforts, (e.g. 15M GEF funding of LPB,
  ESF MedCLIVAR, Climate Process Teams, AR4
  analyses)
• ??Improvements in
• 1. the spectral character (i.e. spectral power,
  frequency) and
• 2. predictability of ISO, seasonal, interannual,
  and decadal variability in coupled models
• ??Number of global ocean observation deployments
• and
• transition of process study and research
  observations to operational status (e.g.TAO)
• ??Reduction of uncertainty in climate models,
  bias reduction, and the number of new
  parameterizations incorporated into operational
  models (e.g. CPT on marine stratus, VOCALS)
• ??Metric tracking capacity building within and
  incorporation of developing nations into CLIVAR
  activities (e.g. efforts within VAMOS, VACS,
  AAMP)
• ??Global and regional data products enabled by
  CLIVAR (e.g., global ocean data renalyses,
  African Climate Atlas)

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CLIVAR - THE ROLE OF THE OCEANS IN CLIMATE

• Observations and Synthesis
• ROADMAP

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2007

• What will be CLIVARs legacy?
• A set of CD-ROMs? (viable, lasting data?)
• What global products vs basin?
• Sustained observations and research to
  investigate, observe, predict oceans role in
  climate reporting of indices governmental
  commitments?
• Improved models? (judged how)
• Final workshop, report?
• Support for products, applications?
• Follow on research program?
• Joint with GEWEX, IGBP?

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2007

• Choose few foci crafted around oceans role in
  climate?
• Example Rethink an approach to investigating
  oceans impact on atmosphere
• Aerosol/SOLAS
• Atmospheric observations (GPS limb sounding,
  satellite, in-situ)
• Fidelity of atmospheric models, surface fluxes
• Fidelity of surface fluxes in coupled models
• Partner with GEWEX on global surface fluxes
• Global water cycle (E, P)
• Tie ocean radiation obs to land
• Work on better ocean surface radiation

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2007

• Prioritize process studies
• Only a few left
• How linked to model improvement?
• Incremental? High impact on understanding oceans
  role in climate?

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2007

• Evaluate approach to assessing ocean storage
• Space/time variability
• Uncertainty
• What quantities - partnering with IGBP
• GSOP - basin panel - model WG joint effort
• Evaluate approach to quantifying ocean transports
• Mean advective and eddy
• Bndy currents
• Key locations
• THC/MOC
• GSOP - basin panel - model WG joint effort

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2007/2010

• Build the foundations for the CLIVAR legacy
• Data management
• Data synthesis
• Assertion of the role of research in sustained
  observation of the coupled climate system
• CLIVAR outreach to IOOS, GEOSS
• CLIVAR outreach to governments, intergovernmental
  organizations
• The next generation of people engage now
• Funding targeting syntheses, obs/model
  comparisons,
• Entrain young PIs

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2013

• Operational research on climate predictability
• How to nurture CLIVAR activities - results from
  TOGA COARE continued for 10 yrs after the
  fieldwork - A CLIVAR synthesis program 2013-2023?

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SSG-14 Actions for GSOP

• 26. Lend CLIVAR support to the campaign to
  create an Ocean
• Observation System Centre (to be expanded in
  discussion of roadmap) (SSG co-chairs, ICPO).
• This is an item which arose in Ed Harrison's
  OOPC.
• 27. Remind CLIVAR researchers of the need to
  submit all data in real time for model
  evaluation, etc. (via Exchanges) (ICPO)
• What is needed is a short article in CLIVAR
  Exchanges written by someone involved in using
  the real time data stream.

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• 28. GSOP to identify and and coordinate
  development of CLIVAR
• reference data sets, including error bars where
  possible, and
• develop ideas on how to make them widely
  accessible. (GSOP)
• Was the subject of recent input to WOAP via a
  paper (attached)
• initially put together by Nico with modifications
  by Howard and Detlef.
• 29. GSOP to work with Atlantic Panel on
  Atlantic synthesis in
• cooperation with IOCCP. (Request D Stammer to
  refine). How we best go about this needs to be
  defined.

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• 30. Develop plans for an "OceanObs 200X" and
  consult potential sponsors regarding sponsorship.
  To be seen as part of CLIVAR annual workshop
  devoted to the Oceans' role in climate include
  issues such as Ocean Obs Data Centre, measurement
  of ocean currents and transports, etc. (GSOP)
• Aiming to evaluate the current state and vector
  of the global observing system with reference
  back to OceanObs'99. Ed Harrison suggested there
  is an initial need to discuss just what the
  workshop/conference goals might be in the light
  of the SSG discussion.
• 31. Establish need for a hydrography planning
  and oversight group with reference to outputs
  from recent Hydrography workshop (ICPO to
  coordinate with Weller and Hood). ICPO to
  continue its support to the international
  hydrography and carbon research community.
  (ICPO)
• Arose out of the Hydrography workshop and there
  was quite a bit of activity on this afterwards.
  List of members established, though David Lelger
  felt that the group needed to be much higher
  level and to have different foci.

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SSG-14 Actions for GSOP

• 32. Ask Basin panels and other working groups
  to analyze ocean
• synthesis products and feed back to GSOP. (GSOP)