SOME VIEWS ON THE LINKS BETWEEN

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SOME VIEWS ON THE LINKS BETWEEN GEWEX AND (US)
CLIVAR
US CLIVAR SUMMIT August 16, 2005
Rick Lawford Keystone, Colorado
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THE GLOBAL ENERGY AND WATER CYCLE EXPERIMENT
(GEWEX) INVOLVES THE DEVELOPMENT AND
APPLICATION OF PLANETARY EARTH SCIENCE,
OBSERVATIONS AND MODELS TO THE PROBLEMS OF
CLIMATE AND WATER RESOURCES

• THE PROGRAM ENTAILS
• - GLOBAL DATA SETS DERIVED FROM SATELLITE DATA,
  IN SITU
• DATA AND DATA ASSIMILATION CAPABILITIES,
• - MODEL DEVELOPMENT AND PREDICTABILITY STUDIES
• FIELD AND PROCESS STUDIES
• APPLICATIONS

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GEWEX Phase II Objectives (2003-2012)

• Produce consistent research quality data sets
  complete with error descriptions of the Earth's
  energy budget and water cycle and their
  variability and trends on inter-annual to decadal
  time scales, and for use in climate system
  analysis and model development and validation
• 2) Enhance the understanding of how energy and
  water cycle processes
• function and quantify their contribution to
  climate feedbacks
• 3) Determine the geographical and seasonal
  characteristics of the predictability
• of key water and energy cycle variables over
  land areas and through collaborations with the
  wider WCRP community determine the predictability
  of energy and water cycles on a global basis.
• 4) Develop better seasonal predictions of water
  and energy cycle variability
• through improved parameterisations
  encapsulating hydro-meteorological
• processes and feedbacks for atmospheric
  circulation models
• 5) Undertake joint activities with operational
  hydro-meteorological services and
• hydrological research programmes to
  demonstrate the value of new GEWEX
• prediction capabilities, data sets and tools
  for assessing the consequences
• of climate predictions and global change.

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WHO FUNDS GEWEX?
USA
GERMANY BALTEX, GPCC. GRDC GAPP,
GPCP, ISCCP, JAPAN
CEOP, GAME FOLLOWON SRB, GACP, GVaP?
AUSTRALIA MDB

FRANCE, EU AMMA JOINT US/JAPAN GLASS
GEF/ ARGENTINA
LPB US/AUSTRALIA GCSS
CANADA MAGS US/THE NETHERLANDS GABLS
- some US research dollars US/ BRAZIL LBA
ONE CLIVAR/ GEWEX DIFFERENCE ALTHOUGH A LARGE
NUMBER OF GEWEX PROJECTS TAKE PLACE IN THE USA OR
WITH USA FUNDING, THE PROGRAM HAS NEVER HAD A US
PROGRAM COORDINATED THROUGH A PANEL AND PROJECT
OFFICE. (HOWEVER, BETWEEN 1995 AND 2000 NOAA DID
FUND A GCIP PROJECT OFFICE AND NRC/NAS HAD A US
GEWEX REVIEW PANEL.) PROBABLY, GEWEX WOULD BE
LARGER AND MORE VIBRANT IF IT HAD A US GEWEX
PROJECT OFFICE AND A US PROGRAM STRUCTURE.
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HYDROMETEOROLOGY PANEL
CSEs
Data Management
Water and Energy Budget Studies
Stable Water Isotope Intercomparison Group
Worldwide Integrated Study of Extremes
Transferability
Water Resource Applications Project
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GEWEX HYDROMETEOROLOGY PANEL ACTIVITIES
WATER AND ENERGY BUDGETS ARE BEING CLOSED (AND
THE ERRORS ESTIMATED) FOR VARIOUS CSEs.
MC
P
E
N
W
A PROJECT HAS BEEN LAUNCHED TO LOOK AT PROCESSES
THAT CONTROL EXTREME EVENTS
A 10-YEAR (1986-1995) DATA SET OF SATELLITE
DERIVED LAND SURFACE DATA WAS COMPLETED AND THE
DATA SETS ARE BEING EVALUATED BEFORE FULL
PUBLIC RELEASE
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GEWEX/ CLIVAR COLLABORATIONIN THE GAPP CSE
CPPA
US CLIVAR Pan-America (PACS)
GEWEX Americas Prediction Project
Science Advisory Groups
Science and Implementation Plans
Funding
Funding
Agency Implementation
-ATM -OCE
CPPA
-Hydro -GEWEC
GEWEX GREATLY VALUES THE CONTRIBUTIONS THAT CPPA
AND NASA NEWS EFFORTS MAKE TO THE GAPP CSE. WILL
THERE BE A FOLLOW-ON?
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WATER RESOURCES APPLICATION PROJECT http//ecpc.uc
sd.edu/projects/ghp/Wrap_web/

• Working group of GEWEX Hydrometeorology Panel
  (GHP)
• Representatives from all CSE/CSAs, ISLSCP, HELP,
  WWAP, IAHS, WMO
• Mandate
• Collaborate with water resources agencies to
  develop better hydrometeorological predictions
  using GEWEX models and data
• A paper summarizing past accomplishments and
  future opportunities is in progress.

Water Resources Applications
cf. Sorooshian
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Climate Model vs Observed Precipitation

Global Intensification of the hydrological cycle
?

Models indicate trend -- observations dont
confirm

Errors dont allow proof
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GEWEX RADIATION PANEL
DATA SETS DERIVED FROM LONG-TERM SATELLITE
RECORDS ARE BEING USED IN CLIMATE STUDIES (E.G.
GEWEX/ IGWCO/UNESCO WORKSHOP ON TRENDS IN WATER
CYCLE VARIABLES)
SATELLITE DATA
(BUT CARE IS ADVISED WHEN USING DATA SETS WHICH
HAVE NOT BEEN DEVELOPED FOR TREND ANALYSIS)
GRP HAS BEEN LEADING ASSESSMENTS OF RADIATIVE
FLUXES AND OTHER SATELLITE PRODUCTS FOR CLIMATE
TREND ANALYSIS.
GEWEX IS HELPING TO BUILD THE GLOBAL
CLIMATE OBSERVING SYSTEM BY PROVIDING THE
BASELINE SURFACE RADIATION NETWORK.
Now Available Implementation Plan for
theGlobal Observing Systems for Climate GCOS
welcomes the WCRP/GEWEXBaseline Surface
Radiation Network Also availableSecond
Report on the Adequacy of the Global Observing
Systems for Climate (April 2003)
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GRP HAS DEVELOPED GLOBAL SCALE PERSPECTIVES AND
DATA SETS FROM OPERATIONAL SATELLITES FOR
AEROSOLS
AEROSOLS
SATELLITE DATA
CLOUDS
CLOUDS
WATER VAPOR
WATER VAPOR
PRECIPITATION
PRECIPITATION
While global trends do not appear to exist for
precipitation GPCP products indicate that
regional trends do occur.

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GEWEX MODELING AND PREDICTION PANEL
KAIN-FRITSCH (15 km)
CSRM (2 km)
GCSS STUDIES HAVE SHOWN THE EFFECTS OF MODEL
RESOLUTION ON SIMULATED CLOUD FIELDS.
GLASS (GSWP2) HAS PRODUCED TEN-YEAR SIMULATIONS
(1986- 1995) OF SOIL WETNESS AND OTHER WATER
CYCLE VARIABLES BASED ON A NUMBER OF MODELS.
GABLS ADDRESSES ISSUES RELATED TO THE BOUNDARY
LAYER
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Multi-Model Analysis
A major product of GSWP2 is a multi-model land
surface analysis for the ISLSCP II period. There
is a climatological annual cycle data set, and a
larger data set for the entire series. Compiling
the results of multiple LSSs to produce a single
analysis provides a model-independent result.
Of particular value uncertainty estimates can
be put on all of the fields, based on the
inter-model spread.
Example of the multi-model mean and spread in
evapotranspiration over North America from GSWP1.
Over some regions the models are in good
agreement, but in others the spread among models
exceeds the mean of the models (color scale is
the same for both plots).
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Future Plans
An Element of WCRP initiated by GEWEX

• Part-II(2007-2010)
• Implement the CEOP-II Enhanced Observation
• Improve the CEOP Data Integration Systems
• Water and Energy Simulation and Prediction
  Extension
• Transferability and Down-scaling
• Extreme Events
• Cold Region
• Semi-arid Region
• Monsoon Studies Extension
• Closely related with the pan WCRP Monsoon Study
• Intra-seasonal Variation
• Aerosol-Monsoon interaction

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End-to-End Prediction is a Joint CLIVAR/ GEWEX
Challenge
Decisions
Source S. Sorooshian GEWEX-SSG
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AREAS OF CLIVAR/ GEWEX COLLABORATION

• SOME COMMON AREAS OF INTEREST
• DIURNAL CYCLE
• SURFACE FLUXES (E.G.SEAFLUX)
• PRECIPITATION PROCESSES
• SEASONAL PREDICTIONS
• PREDICTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH
• LAND STATES (E.G. GLACE)

• JOINT PROJECTS
• NAME (AND CPPA)
• LPB
• AMMA
• GAME FOLLOWON?

• PRIORITIES FROM THE PAN-WCRP MONSOON WORKSHOP
• (HELD IN JUNE 2005 AT UCI)
• DIURNAL CYCLE OF PRECIPITATION
• MODELING OF SURFACE FLUXES, PBL AND CLOUDS
• INTRASEASONAL OSCILLATION
• ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE DISTRIBUTION AND TRANSPORT
• PROCESS STUDIES OF THE MARITIME CONTINENT AND
  THE INDIAN OCEAN
• SENSITIVITY OF MODELS WHEN SIMULATING MULTISCALE
  INTERACTIONS
• IN MONSOON SYSTEMS.

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GEWEX Contributes Towards a Global Observing
System of Systems
GEO IS DEVELOPING A PLAN FOR AN INTEGRATED
GLOBAL EARTH OBSERVING SYSTEM OF SYSTEMS (GEOSS)
IGOS-P IS DEVELOPING THE STRATEGY
FOR INTEGRATING OBSERVATIONAL SYSTEMS
GEWEX, ESSP, ETC ARE CARRYING OUT THE
RESEARCH NEEDED TO DEVELOP A PREDICTION AND
INFORMATION SYSTEM
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GEWEX ROLE IN COORDINATING SATELLITE ACTIVITIES

• GILLES SOMMERIA (JPS OF WCRP) HAS PROVIDED INPUT
  TO THE
• WMO HIGH LEVEL SATELLITE COMMITTEE AND
  GEOSS.
• 2. IGPO HAS LED THE INTEGRATED GLOBAL WATER CYCLE
  OBSERVATIONS
• (IGWCO) SINCE ITS INCEPTION (THE PLAN IS TO
  TRANSITION
• FROM WCRP/GEWEX TO WMO IN APRIL 2006)
• 3. GEWES HAS PROVIDED
• LEADERSHIP FOR THE WATER
• RESOURCES SOCIETAL BENEFIT
• AREA TEAM LEADER (NOW BEING
• COORDINATED THROUGH IGWCO)
• 4. GEWEX (AND IGWCO) ON BEHALF
• OF WCRP ARE HELPING TO
• IMPLEMENT ELEMENTS OF THE
• GCOS IMPLEMENTATION PLAN.

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SOME THINGS CLIVAR COULD DO FOR GEWEX

• GEWEX DOES NOT HAVE A COUPLED GLOBAL MODEL FOR
• TESTING THE SENSITIVITY OF GCMS TO ITS NEW
  PARAMETERIZATIONS.
• COULD US CLIVAR PROVIDE THIS PLATFORM?
• 2. CLIVAR COULD HELP ADDRESS THE QUESTION OF A
  TRUE GLOBAL
• WATER AND ENERGY BUDGET BY PROVIDING THE
  WATER AND
• ENERGY FLUXES AND STORES OVER OCEANS.
• 3. GEWEX INTERESTS IN WATER RESOURCE APPLICATIONS
  AND
• ITS STUDIES OF EXTREMES WOULD BENEFIT FROM
  ACCESS TO
• EXPERIMENTAL CLIMATE PREDICTIONS AND CLIVAR
  COLLABORATION.
• 4. CLIVAR COULD PROVIDE FEEDBACK ON THE
  WEAKNESSES AND
• LIMITATIONS OF GEWEX DATA SETS.

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SOME THINGS GEWEX COULD DO FOR US CLIVAR

• WITH ITS HYDROLOGICAL EXPERTISE, GEWEX COULD
• PROVIDE AN APPLICATIONS RESEARCH ARM FOR
  CLIVAR
• PRODUCTS IN THE WATER RESOURCES SECTOR.
• 2. THROUGH ITS LINKS WITH SPACE PROGRAMS GEWEX
  COULD
• PROVIDE A VOICE FOR CLIVAR REMOTE SENSING
  NEEDS
• RELATED TO THE WATER CYCLE. IT CAN ALSO
  PROVIDE
• LINKAGES TO iLEAPS AND GWSP.
• 3. THROUGH A JOINT INITIATIVE, CLIVAR AND GEWEX
  (WITH
• THORPEX COLLABORATION) COULD ADDRESS THE
• WEATHER IN CLIMATE ISSUE.
• 4. THE GEWEX PLATFORM (E.G. THE GAPP CORE
  PROJECT) FOR
• TRANSFERING RESEARCH RESULTS (IMPROVED
• PARAMETERIZATIONS) TO OPERATIONS COULD SERVE
  AS A
• MECHANISM FOR CLIVAR PROCESS
  PARAMETERIZATIONS.

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OTHER CHALLENGES
THE INCLUSION OF COMPLEX TERRAIN AND MOUNTAIN
PROCESSES IN GLOBAL CLIMATE MODELS
THE PREDICTION OF PRECIPITATION ON ALL TIME
SCALES.
THE TECHNIQUES AND LIMITATIONS OF ENSEMBLE
PREDICTION TECHNIQUES IN CLIMATE AND
HYDROLOGIC MODELING.
QUANTIFICATION OF THE FLUXES AND STORES IN WATER
AND ENERGY BUDGETS FOR THE GLOBE.
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PRECIPITATION CHALLENGES
PRECIPITATION IS NEITHER PREDICTED NOR
OBSERVED AT SUFFICIENTLY HIGH RESOLUTION TO MEET
THE NEEDS OF THE HYDROLOGIC AND WATER
RESOURCES COMMUNITIES.
EXTREMES IN PRECIPITATION EVENTS (OR THE ABSENCE
OF PRECIPITATION EVENTS) NEED TO BE UNDERSTOOD IN
TERMS OF THEIR CAUSES, TERMINATION AND IMPACTS.
THE ROLE OF AEROSOLS IN CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.
Smoky
Pristine
(Andreae et al., 2004)
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SOME POTENTIAL AREAS FOR COLLABORATION

• GLOBAL WATER AND ENERGY BUDGETS (NEED A TRULY
  GLOBAL
• BALANCE)
• MONSOONS
• REGIONAL MODELING FOR DOWNSCALING
• DEVELOPMENT OF A JOINT STRATEGY FOR APPLICATIONS
• PREDICTION OF PRECIPITATION AT CLIMATE TIME
  SCALES
• REPRESENTATION OF THE DIURNAL CYCLE IN GLOBAL
  MODELS
• DEVELOPMENT OF HARMONIZED DATA POLICIES
• SOURCES OF PREDICTABILITY IN THE CLIMATE SYSTEM.

CAUTION WE CANT DO IT ALL AT ONCE WE NEED TO
AGREE ON PRIORITIES.
POSSIBLE ISSUES FOR DISCUSSION 1. WOULD A US
GEWEX OFFICE/ COORDINATOR FACILITATE
INTERACTIONS BETWEEN US CLIVAR AND GEWEX (AND
COULD WE CONVINCE AGENCIES THAT THE INVESTMENT IS
WORTH IT?) 2. WHAT IS THE BEST WAY TO PROMOTE
COLLABORATION? 3. IN ADDITION TO CONTRIBUTIONS TO
GEWEX, WHAT CONTRIBUTIONS CAN US CLIVAR MAKE TO
CEOP AND IGWCO?