CLIVAR SSG 14 Buenos Aires, Argentina

1
CLIVAR SSG 14Buenos Aires, Argentina

• Introduction and Welcome

2
CLIVAR (Climate Variability and Predictability)
CLIVAR is an interdisciplinary research effort
within the World Climate Research Programme
(WCRP) focusing on the variability and
predictability of the slowly varying components
of the climate system. CLIVAR investigates
the physical and dynamical processes in the
climate system that occur on seasonal,
interannual, decadal and centennial time-scales.
http//www.clivar.org
3
CLIVAR Mission

• To observe, simulate and predict Earths climate
  system, with focus on ocean-atmosphere
  interactions, enabling better understanding of
  climate variability, predictability and change,
  to the benefit of society and the environment in
  which we live.
• Science lt-gt Applications

4
CLIVAR Goals and Objectives

• Understand the physical processes responsible for
  climate variability and predictability on
  seasonal, interannual, decadal, and centennial
  time-scales
• Extend the range and accuracy of seasonal to
  interannual climate prediction
• Extend the record of climate variability
• Understand, predict and detect the anthropogenic
  modification of the natural climate signal.

5
CLIVAR SSG 14Buenos Aires, Argentina

• Introduction and Welcome
• Agenda
• Review of SSG 13
• Summary of JSC XXVII, Pune India
• Purpose of this meeting

6

• Agenda

7
CLIVAR SSG-14 AGENDA WEDNESDAY 19 APRIL AM
8
CLIVAR SSG-14 AGENDA WEDNESDAY 19 APRIL PM
9
CLIVAR SSG-14 AGENDA THURSDAY 20 APRIL AM
10
CLIVAR SSG-14 AGENDA THURSDAY 20 APRIL PM
11
CLIVAR SSG-14 AGENDA FRIDAY 21 APRIL AM
12
CLIVAR SSG-14 AGENDA FRIDAY 21 APRIL PM
13
CLIVAR SSG-14 AGENDA SATURDAY 22 APRIL AM
14

• Review of SSG 13

15
(No Transcript)
16
Conference Statistics

• 650 Attendees - the largest WCRP Conference
  ever!
• 56 Countries
• 650 Posters
• 35 Oral presentations
• 9 Discussants
• 4 Press briefings
• 17 panelists, 5 moderators
• Several stories went to print
• 80 students, 16 poster awards
• 14 Major sponsors

17
CLIVAR Assessment

• Organised by
• CLIVAR streams (GOALS, DecCen, ACC) referenced to
  the Science Implemenation Plans and ToRs of
  Panels WGs
• Unifying streams of Data Modelling
• Overall programme structure the ICPO

18
CLIVAR - Principal Research Areas
19
CLIVAR Assessment

• Organised by
• CLIVAR streams (GOALS, DecCen, ACC) referenced to
  the Science Implemenation Plans and ToRs of
  Panels WGs
• Unifying streams of Data Modelling
• Overall programme structure the ICPO
• Team of 6 assessors and SSG liaisons
• Inputs
• Panel Working Group responses to questionnaire
• CLIVAR web pages documents
• Reviewer/Panel WG interactions
• CLIVAR Conference
• Written oral reports to CLIVAR SSG-13
• Subsequent analysis of outcomes

20
Key outcomes of CLIVAR to date

• Creation of a sustained demand for global ocean
  and atmospheric climate observations, in situ
  remotely-sensed
• St Raphael Conference (Oceanobs99) and
  definition of the approach to global ocean
  observations, e.g.,
• Extension of buoy arrays into the Atlantic Ocean
• Developing Indian Ocean climate observing system
• New focus on ocean climate re-analysis
• Global ARGO deployment
• Stimulated climate model development, e.g., CPT
• Routine operational seasonal forecasts, forecast
  system intercomparisons and development of
  ensemble prediction methods
• Experimental decadal prediction
• Global change model scenarios underpinning IPCC
• Focus on American monsoon systems and processes
  (VAMOS NAME MESA)

21
CLIVAR - global view
22
Key issues of the CLIVAR Conference and
Assessment Science Foci

• Regional analysis of global model outputs and
  feedback
• Global synthesis observation links
• Strengthen CLIVAR activity in ACC
• Links between process studies model improvement
• Cross CLIVAR effort on climate indices
• Ocean observing strategy including hydrography
  carbon links
• Ocean reanalysis activity related data
  management issues
• Pan WCRP monsoon activity (with GEWEX)
• Applications of CLIVAR science

23
(No Transcript)
24
Key issues of the CLIVAR Conference and
Assessment Summary Response

• On an annual basis CLIVAR progress will be
  assessed against four major global themes ENSO,
  Monsoons, THC/Decadal and ACC. Each year a
  topical workshop will be held for one of the four
  themes.
• ACC representation to be increased on SSG
• Global perspective/framework to be provided by
  GSOP, WGSIP, WGCM, WGOMD, and CCD
• Global to regional perspective provided by
  Monsoon Panels for VAMOS, VACS, and AAMP and
  Ocean Basin Panels for Atlantic, Pacific, Indian,
  and Southern Oceans

25
Key outcomes of the CLIVAR Conference and
Assessment Management Foci

• Continued programme assessment
• Annual workshops against the 4 science foci in
  turn (ENSO, ACC, Monsoons, Decadal/THC)
• Overall CLIVAR structure
• CLIVARs globalltgtregional panel interactions
• CLIVAR visibility and networking
• Overall CLIVAR data and information management
• Web site development
• New structure for the ICPO

26
(No Transcript)
27
Progress Since SSG 13

• GSOP (unto its own, as predecessor to WOAP)
• Basin panels metric input to GSOP
• Climate Process Team (CPT) concept
• USCLIVAR/WCRP analyses of AR4
• Joint CLIVAR-GEWEX Monsoon meeting on behalf of
  JSC
• New web site
• Renewal of ICPO NERC Grant

28

• Summary of JSC XXVIII

29
Summary of JSC XXVII
X

• COPES

30
Summary of JSC XXVII

• Task Forces 2 years
• Sea Level TF, June 2006 meeting
• TFSP ? CLIVAR/WGSIP post 2007 meeting
• ENSO definition
• POC for CLIVAR-GEWEX Monsoon Coordination
• CLIVAR VACS East African Workshop
• USCLIVR/WGCM AR4 Analysis Workshop
• WCRP-IGBP Joint Session, SPARC and IGAC to
  develop Climate and Chemistry initiative
• CLIVAR asked to review GEWEX MAHASRI and CEOP II
• WGCM encouraged to consider decadal
  predictability

31
Summary of JSC XXVII

• All projects requested to submit program
  metrics

32
Performance metrics for CLIVAR

• ? New resources enabled by leveraging off of
  CLIVAR efforts, (e.g. 15M GEF funding of LPB,
  ESF MedCLIVAR, Climate Process Teams, AR4
  analyses)
• ? Improvements in
• 1. the spectral character (i.e. spectral power,
  frequency) and
• 2. predictability of ISO, seasonal, interannual,
  and decadal variability in coupled models
• ? Number of global ocean observation deployments
• and
• transition of process study and research
  observations to operational status (e.g.TAO)
• ? Reduction of uncertainty in climate models,
  bias reduction, and the number of new
  parameterizations incorporated into operational
  models (e.g. CPT on marine stratus, VOCALS)
• ? Metric tracking capacity building within and
  incorporation of developing nations into CLIVAR
  activities (e.g. efforts within VAMOS, VACS,
  AAMP)
• ? Global and regional data products enabled by
  CLIVAR (e.g., global ocean data renalyses,
  African Climate Atlas)

33
Summary of JSC XXVII

• All projects requested to submit program
  metrics
• CLIVAR metrics adopted by essentially all the
  other projects
• WCRP Road Map
• Project by Project
• JSC and WCRP as a whole

34
Summary of JSC XXVII

• Where does CLIVAR fit into this state space?
• Current State. How does CLIVAR currently
  populate this space
• Future Physical Climate System. How and where
  does CLIVAR intend to grow physical climate
  science so that we are seen to identify,
  encourage and facilitate the best research in the
  world?
• Future Seamless Prediction Goal. How does CLIVAR
  plan to move our current climate science towards
  our stated goal of seamless climate prediction?
• Future Earth System Contribution Target. How
  does CLIVAR plan to move our current climate
  science toward the desired aim of contributing to
  Earth System projection and interpretation?
• Benefits Delivery. How and to whom are CLIVAR
  research benefits delivered?

35
Purpose of this meeting

• Somewhat abbreviated SSG given SHAMS
• Sponsor/Context setting WCRP, IOC, WMO, IGBP
• New approach to SSG meeting (still some kinks,
  input welcome)
• Focus on ENSO/TV, Monsoons, Decadal/THC, ACC,
  Role of Oceans, Global Modeling
• In contrast to long series of possibly
  disconnected panel reports
• Organized into a series of mini-assessments (SSG
  engagement is crucial)
• Development of CLIVAR Roadmap

36

• Template for reporting for CLIVAR SSG-14
• Panel or Working Group
• Contributions to CLIVARs 4 major themes
• 2.1 ENSO and other modes of tropical
  variability
• 2.2Monsoons
• 2.3 Decadal variability and the thermohaline
  circulation
• 2.4 Anthropogenic climate change
• 3. Summary of contribution to annual thematic
  workshop(s)
• 4. Contributions to the additional theme of the
  oceans role in climate (where not covered under
  the 4 themes)
• 5. Highlights of contributions to wider areas of
  climate science, including modelling,
  observational and synthesis studies

37

• New activities being planned
• 6.1 Modelling activities, including activities
  related to regional assessment of global model
  outputs
• 6.2 Synthesis activities
• 6.3 Coordinated field programmes and other
  observational activities
• 6.4 Workshops etc
• 6.5 Links to applications
• 6.6 Other
• Cross Panel and Working Group Links
• Cross WCRP/COPES links
• Data management activities

38
CLIVAR - global view
39
Purpose of this meeting

• Theme Lead Overview State of science, current
  status, science directions, needs
• Roundtable How is CLIVAR addressing this theme.
  Panel contributions to crosscut theme.
• Theme Assessor Developing the road map, path
  ahead. Synthesis. Gap analysis, redundancies.
  What will we do by 2007, 2010, 2013? Where will
  we be at these milestones? (Note also JSC
  matrix.)
• Report back on Saturday

40
Purpose of this meeting

• ENSO and Tropical Variability Theme Lead
  Overview Michele Rienecker
• Roundtable Pacific, Atlantic, AAMP, WGSIP, etc.
• Theme Assessor Axel Timmermann

41

• Synthesis

monsoon
Meridional mode
Meridional mode
ENSO
Atlantic Nino I,II
IOZDM
42

• Synthesis

Indian Monsoon
Meridional mode Pacific
Meridional Mode Atlantic
IOZDM
ENSO
Atlantic NINO
Indian monopole
Which interactions need to be resolved
further? What data do we need to understand these
links? What numerical experiments ought to be
done to elucidate the mechanisms?
43
Purpose of this meeting

• Monsoon Theme Lead Overview Bin Wang
• Roundtable VAMOS (NAME, MESA,VOCAL, LPB/PLATIN),
  VACS (AMMA), AAMP, IOP, GEWEX
• Theme Assessor Duane Walliser

44
Purpose of this meeting

• Decadal Variability and THC Theme Lead Overview
  Jochum Marotzke
• Roundtable Atlantic, Pacific, Southern, WGCM,
  IOP, etc.
• Theme Assessor Wilco Hazeleger

45
Purpose of this meeting

• ACC Theme Lead Overview Tatsushi Tokioka for
  Bryant McAveney
• Roundtable WGCM, ETCCD, PAGES
• Theme Assessor Jerry Meehl

46
Purpose of this meeting

• Global Modelling Theme Lead Overview Jerry Meehl
• Roundtable WGCM, WGOMD, WGSIP
• Theme Assessor Pedro Silva Dias

47
Purpose of this meeting

• Oceans Role in Climate Theme Lead Overview Ed
  Harrison
• Roundtable GSOP, Atlantic, Pacific, Southern,
  IOP
• Theme Assessor Bob Weller

48

• Thanks!