AAMP report to SSG15

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AAMP report to SSG-15

• Contributions to WCRP cross cutting topics
• Contributions to CLIVAR science
• Cooperation with IGBP projects
• New activities
• Expected legacy at the end of CLIVAR
• Issues for SSG

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AAMP Contributions to WCRP cross cutting
topicsMonsoons

• Playing active roles in planning AMY08.
• AAMP and MAHASRI working together
• co-Chair ing the AMY08 Science Steering
  Committee
• Drafting AMY08 Science Plan.
• Help organizing two AMY meetings
• 1st April 22-24 2007, Beijing
• 2nd Sept. 3-4 2007, Bali

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AMY ParticipantsNational/Regional Projects

• JAPAN JEPP, JAMSTEC/IORGC, ARCS-Asia,
  JAMSTEC/FRCGC, PRAISE
• CHINA AIPO, SCHeRex, TORP, SACOL, NPOIMS
• Chinese Taipei SoWMEX, EAMEX
• INDIA STORM, CTCZ, IIMX/Rain, CAIPEX
• USA- JAMEX, SMART-COMMIT, TiMREX
• Korea-Japan PHONE08
• Thailand Malaysia Vietnam Indonesia
  Philippines Bangaladesh, Nepal Mongolia

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AAMP Contributions to WCRP cross cutting
topicsMonsoons
AAMP contributed to PAN-WCRP International
Monsoon Study (IMS) Scoping Meeting, Bali,
Indonesia, 5 September 2007 This meeting aimed
to scope scientific issues surrounding the
concept of a 5 year International Monsoon Study
(IMS) 2007-2011 and to discuss a issues and
objectives in preparation of a strategic plan for
such an activity.
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AAMP Contributions to WCRP cross cutting
topicsSeasonal Prediction
AAMP-WGSIP-TFSP Interactions

• Participation in SMIP/HFP Seasonal Prediction
  Expts
• Organized APCC/CliPAS project, Coordinated
  25-year (1981-2005) hindcast experiments with 12
  paticipanting models
• Evalustion of 17 DEMETER and APCC hindcast
  experiments (1981-2001) to determine the current
  skill in monsoon prediction.
• WCRP Seasonal Prediction Workshop (Barcilona
  2007) Monsoon session organized by AAMP

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Activity Model Descriptions of CliPAS System
APCC/CliPAS Tier-1 Models
APCC/CliPAS Tier-2 Models
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ACC Skill of Precipitation
AAM (40-160E) moderate skill land monsoon
region little skill
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AAMP Contributions to WCRP cross cutting
topicsOther topics

• THORPEX/WCRP/ICTP Workshop
• Organization and Maintenance of Tropical
  Convection and the Madden Julian Oscillation.
  ICTP, Trieste (Slingo,.)
• Contribution to YOTC The panel endorsed and is
  fuly supporting the YOTC project will provide
  advice for coordination of modelling activities
• Collaborated with US CLIVAR/MJOWG on designing
  Metrics for evaluating Model simulation and
  prediction of MJO. (Waliser and Sperber,)
• Encouraged study of new strategies, such as slow
  manifold approach, air-sea coupling, for
  improving dynamical model's capacity of MJO
  prediction.
• Promote high-resolution modeling (NICAM, NASA,
  SNU, MRI,) of MJO and TCs.

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Concept of Multi-Scale Interrelation In Monsoon
ISO
Slingo 2006 THORPEX/WCRP Workshop report
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Year of Tropical Convection
This proposed activity arose out of a
recommendation by the THORPEX/WCRP/ICTP Workshop
on Organisation and Maintenance of Tropical
Convection and the MJO, held in Trieste in March
2006. It was presented at the WCRP/CLIVAR SSG
Meeting in Buenos Aires in April 2006. Based on
positive feedback from the WCRP Director and the
SSG, the SSG asked that the proposal be developed
in cooperation with THORPEX, GEWEX, CEOP, AAMP,
WOAP, WMP, etc.
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High-frequency, observed SST forcing and the
intraseasonal oscillation

• Objective
• To determine the influence of high frequency SSTs
  on intraseasonal monsoon variability.
• SST forcing dataset
• Feb. 20052006 reanalysis from the Met Office
  GHRSST project.
• Assimilates satellites (e.g., TRMM) and in situ
  buoys.
• Available as daily analyses at 1/20 spatial
  resolution.
• Substantial intraseasonal (30-70 day)
  variability during the monsoon.

Standard deviation of 30-70 day SSTs for June
September.Line contours give percentage of
variability explained.
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AAMP Contributions to WCRP cross cutting
topicsOther cross cutting topics
Anthropogenic impact on A-AM

• Collaboration with MAIRS to coorganize the
  preparation of a workshop on Anthropogenic Impact
  on Asian Monsoon in 2008

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Highlights of AAMP contributions to CLIVAR science
Key Areas of A-AM Activity

• Intraseasonal Variability (ISV) and
  Predictability
• Interannual Variability (IAV) and predictability
• Modelling of Monsoon
• Dynamic seasonal predictions
• Interdecadal variation (IDV) and ACC
• Observing and monitoring

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Highlights of AAMP contributions to CLIVAR science
Key Questions AAMP is addressing

• What cause monsoon Intraseasonal Variability
  (ISV)? How to overcome the major challenges to
  modeling and predicting monsoon ISV?
• What is the current accuracy and how to improve
  the dynamic monsoon seasonal predictions? What
  roles do land surface initialization and
  atmosphere-land interaction play?
• What determines the structure and dynamics of the
  annual cycle (AC) and diurnal cycle (DC) of the
  coupled atmosphere-ocean-land system? How to
  remedy the major weaknesses of climate models in
  simulation of the AC and DC?
• What are the major modes of interdecadal
  variation of the monsoon system?
• How and why will monsoon system change in a
  global warming environment?
• What is priority for future field study and
  improving observing and monitoring strategy of
  the monsoon system?

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Highlights of AAMP contributions to CLIVAR science
ISV and Predictability

• Activity
• Major modes of the Monsoon ISV (30-50Day and
  10-20 day, onset, active/break events)
• Critical processes causing Monsoon ISV
• Major challenges to modeling and predict MJO and
  MISV
• What roles does atmosphere-ocean-land interaction
  play in Monsoon ISV?

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Understanding the mechanism of boreal summer
monsoon ISO
Satellite Observed Boreal Summer ISO (1998-2005)
Numbers four phases, phase interval 8 days

• Northward propagation in Bay of Bengal (Yasunari
  1979, 1980, Sikka and Gadgel 1980) and
  northwestward propagation in WNP (Nitta 1987)
• Formation of NW-SE tilted anomaly rain band
  (Maloney and Hartmann 1998, Annamalai and Slingo
  2001, Kemball-Cook and Wang 2001, Lawrence and
  Webster 2002, Waliser et al. 2003)
• Initiation in the western EIO (60-70E) (Wang,
  Webster and Teng 05)
• Seesaw between BOB and ENP and between EEIO and
  WNP.

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ISO Potential Predictability
Air-Sea Coupling Extends the Predictability
of Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillation
ATM Forecast Error
CPL Forecast Error
Signal
ATM 17 days, CPL 24 days
Fu et al. 2006
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Highlights of AAMP contributions to CLIVAR science
IAV and Predictability

• Activities
• Determine the dominant modes of IAV of A-AM
  system and their causes
• Assess how well the state-of-the-art coupled
  climate models capture the dominant modes of IAV.
• Role of the Indian Ocean and Western Pacific
• Role of the Tibetan Plateau and land surface
  processes
• Teleconnection and global impacts.

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Highlights of AAMP contributions to CLIVAR science
Factors determining the IAV

• Remote forcing from El Nino/La Nina
• Monsoon-warm pool ocean Interaction
• --Equatorial Bjecknes positive feedback
  (IOD/IOZM) (Webster et al. 1999, Saji et al.
  1999)
• --Off-equatorial Rossby Wave-SST feedback either
  positive or negative, depending on background
  annual cycle (Wang et al. 2000, 2003)
• --Negative feedback by monsoon-induced anomalies
  (Lau and Nath 2000, Webster et al. 2002,
  Loschnigg et al. 2003,).
• --Memories of ocean mixed layer/land (Meehl
  1994, 1997)
• Regulation of the annual cycle (indirect role of
  continent)
• --Regulation of the monsoon-ocean interaction
  (Nicholls 1983)
• --Modify monsoon response to remote ENSO (Wang
  et al. 2003)

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Asian-Australian Monsoon Predictability
S-EOF of Seasonal Mean Precipitation Anomalies
The First Mode 30
The Second Mode 13
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Highlights of AAMP contributions to CLIVAR science
Monsoon Modeling Activity

• Endorsed the approach identified at the 1st
  pan--WCRP Monsoon Modeling Workshop (Irvine
  California, 15-17 June 2005) for key studies of
  the diurnal cycle and support the Model
  systematic Error Workshop, Feb 2007 by focusing
  on AAM region. (Sperber and Yasunari)
• Developing a Monsoon Metrics for validation of
  the models annual cycle and interannual
  variability (in collaboration with CLIVAR/WGSIP)

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10 CGCM MME hindcast of Global Monsoon Errors in
WNP
Number of Model
The monsoon precipitation index (shaded) and
monsoon domain (contoured) captured by (a) CMAP
and (b) the one-month lead MME prediction. (c)
The number of model which simulates MPI over than
0.5 at each grid point.
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Highlights of AAMP contributions to CLIVAR science
Dynamic Seasonal Prediction

• Activity
• Promoting Asian-Pacific Economic Cooperation
  Climate Center (APCC) Climate Prediction and its
  Societal Application (CliPAS) project and
  contributing to WGSIP/SMIP.
• Promote coordinated studies on determining the
  A-AM seasonal predictability in coupled models
  using SMIP-II datasets

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Highlights of AAMP contributions to CLIVAR science
IDV and Future Change

• Activity
• Diagnostic studies focusing on the observed
  long-term changes of the monsoon precipitation
  and circulation in the past.
• Determine how will the leading modes of AAM
  system and extreme events change and how will the
  monsoon-ENSO relationship changes.

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Global Monsoon Changes (1948-2004)
Wang and Ding 2006, GRL
In the last 56 years global land monsoon shows a
weakening trend. However, in the last 25 years,
Oceanic monsoon rainfall increases while land
monsoon unchanged.
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The increasing trend in Seoul JJAS precipitation
and extreme venets reflect a trend in large scale
East Asian monsoon rain belt, which appears to be
related to strong trends in northern Indian ocean
SST.
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Future Scenarios for Summer Monsoon Rainfall and
Annual Temperature over South Asia under A2
Scenario

• The general conclusion that emerges of the
  diagnostics of the IPCC AR4 simulations Asian
  summer monsoon rainfall is likely to be enhanced.

From Kumar et al.
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Cooperation with IGBP projects
Institute on The Asian Monsoon System
Prediction of Change and Variability   Co-Sponso
red by START, APN, CLIVAR, IPRC, MAIRS   Jan 2-12
2008   East-West Center, University of Hawaii,
Honolulu, Hawaii 96822, USA  
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Cooperation with IGBP projects
AAMP participation in PAGES WG on global
monsoons
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New activities (AAMP-8)

• AAMP role in the Pan-WCRP monsoon activity.
• AAMP involvement in the planning and
  organization of the AMY08 and the Joint
  WCRP/THOPEX Year of tropical convection
• A collaborative activity between AAMP and PP
  MJO- ENSO interaction experiments
• A collaborative activity between AAMP and IOP a
  joint process study of IOD predictability
• AAMP endorsed Schuberts proposal and will help
  organize the coordinated experiments on High
  resolution modeling of MJO and TC. The first
  workshop has been held in COLA in mid-August
  2007.

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AAMP expected legacy at the end of CLIVAR

• AMY will be a milestone in study of Asian
  monsoon, jointly supported by CLIVAR and GEWEX
  through AAMP-MAHASRI collaboration with many
  Asian countries, Australia and USA.
• Plan to organize Coordinated AGCM/CGCM
  intraseasonal prediction experiments focus on
  summer monsoon onset, break/active cycles.

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AAMP expected legacy at the end of CLIVAR

• AAMP has organized an AGCM intercomparison
  project focusing on monsoon predictability during
  1997-1998 El Nino
• Seasonal prediction of monsoon through enhance
  the APCC/CliPAS project. In colaboration with
  GEWEX/MAHASRI to determine the role of land
  initialization in improvement of the Asian summer
  monsoon precipitation forecast

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Issues for the SSG

• AAMP is planning its 9th panel meeting in
  conjunction with the WMO IWM4 in late October
  2008 hosted by China. AAMP will help to organize
  a WWRP monsoon meeting including AAMP- relevant
  science sessions.
• AAMP propose to hold a major international
  monsoon symposium focusing on AMY08 and Global
  monsoon study. This will contributes to WCRP
  Cross-cutting theme through CLIVAR and GEWEX.
  Proposed venue Beijing (local support from CMA)
  and joint sessions with WMO IWM-4.
• High-resolution modeling

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Thank you for comments
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AAMP Contributions to WCRP cross cutting
topicsSeasonal Prediction
Challenge of Dynamics Seasonal Prediction - High
Resolution Modeling - In-Sik Kang
Efficiency
Easy for Parallelizing
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Very High resolution GCM simulation 20km
resolution

• 97 JJA precipitation

CMAP
20km FVGCM
300km FVGCM
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Very High resolution GCM simulation 30km
resolution

• Annual mean precipitation(9699)

CMAP
30km FVGCM
300km FVGCM
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AGCMs simulate climatology poorly over the WNP
heat source region
Kang et al. 2002, Cli Dyn
Wang et al. 2004, Cli Dyn
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Highlights of AAMP contributions to CLIVAR science
Monsoon Modeling Isuues

• What determines the structure and dynamics of the
  annual cycle (AC) and diurnal cycle (DC) of the
  coupled atmosphere-ocean-land system?
• What are the major weaknesses of the climate
  models in simulation of the AC and DC?
• Do models getting DC and AC right will improve
  the modeling of low-frequency variability
  (intraseasonal to interannual)?

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Highlights of AAMP contributions to CLIVAR science
Dynamic Seasonal Prediction

• Issues
• What is the current accuracy of the dynamic
  monsoon seasonal predictions?
• How predictable is the monsoon interannual
  variability (IAV)?
• What roles does atmosphere-land interaction play?
  
• How to improve Multi-model Ensemble (MME)
  predictions?

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APCC/CliPAS Research Team
APCC
SNU
COLA
IPRC
NCEP
IAP
FSU
FRCGC
NASA
GFDL
BMRC
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Description of the 10 Coupled Models
Table 1 Description of 10 coupled
atmosphere-ocean models.
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Highlights of AAMP contributions to CLIVAR science
IDV and Future Change

• Issues
• What are the major modes of interdecadal
  variation of the monsoon system?
• How will monsoon system change in a global
  warming environment?
• What are sub-seasonal to interannual factors that
  influence extreme events?
• What is the sensitivity of the monsoon to
  external and anthropogenic climate forcing?

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Land and Ocean GM precipitation
(GPCP)
In the last 25 years, Oceanic monsoon rainfall
increases while land monsoon unchanged
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Leading EOF Pattern of Change in AR
ARI
Wang and Ding 2006
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CLIVAR/GOOS IOP Observing System Design
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Physical basis and strategy for seasonal
prediction of Summer monsoon precipitation
5-AGCM EM hindcast skill (21Yr)

• Two-tier system was unable to predict ASM
  rainfall.
• TTS tends to yield positive SST-rainfall
  correlations in SM region that are at odds with
  observation (negative).
• Treating monsoon as a slave to prescribed SST
  results in the failure.

OBS SST-rainfall correlation
Model SST-rainfall correlation
(Wang et al. 2005)
Wang et al. 2005