Foundation for the Study of Cycles

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Foundation for the Study of Cycles

• Cycle Synchronies

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Cycle Synchronies

• The Founding of FSC the Legacy of E.R. Dewey
• The Discovery of Cycle Synchronies
• Interdisciplinary Cycle Research
• Synchronies The clustering of turning points of
  varied phenomena

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The 9.2 Year Cycle
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Time Series in the 9.2-year Cycle
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The 18.2 year Cycle
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The 22-year cycle
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The 54-year cycle
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The 164-year Cycle
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The Concept of Sequences
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Completing a Cycle AnalysisProjecting in Time

• The Art and Science of Cycle Analysis
• The Cycle Model sine waves
• The concept of inversions
• The Use of Cycles Forecasting and Decision
  making

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Integrating the analysis with related time series

• Develop the context of the projection
• Integrating the analysis into the context
• Create what-if scenarios
• Develop sign posts for projection
• Develop contrary indicators and signs

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Major Synchronous Factors in Wheat Prices

• Demographic Growth
• Cycles in Innovation
• Cycles in Interest rates
• Solar Cycles
• Cycles in Climate

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Wheat, a checklist

• Innovation not likely to effect production
• Cost of production will rise
• Interest Rates are due to rise
• Continued growth of population will add to the
  trend
• Climate Cycles are bullish for wheat prices

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The Future Moving from Observation to Causes

• A climate connection to the economy politics
• Innovation, money flows and economic development
• Understanding economic life in context
• Moving from quantity to quality the next 100
  years
• A Case Study - Climate Wheat Prices

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Cycles in Business Activity
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Long cycles in Interest Rates
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Solar cycle and Climate
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Climate Cycles in Commodity Prices
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Wheat and Climate Cycles
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The 59-year cycle is Yields
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Population and price growth
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Wheat and economic systems

• Economic system changes and prices manorial,
  mercantile, capitalist, and floating currencies

Currency
Capitalist
Mercantile
Manorial
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Innovations effect on prices
Period of Innovation no price growth
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The Trend in Wheat Prices

• Trend will continue to be bullish as population
  and new customers grow
• A Recession is due in North America in 2008 will
  hamper commodity price growth but not stop it
• Climate cycles can be effected to some extent by
  human activity although good growing conditions
  should persist for another decade
• Interest Rates argue for more inflation in the
  next decade
• It is not likely that new innovations in planting
  and growing will change the availability of wheat
  - keeping prices higher
• Changes in the economic system will only change
  in a catastrophic economic cycle which is not
  expected in the next decade