1950: 2'5 billion people

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1950 2.5 billion people
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2000 6 billion people
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2050 9.2 billion people
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The top 8 commodities, such as corn, wheat, soy
and rice, provide more than 80 of human
calories.
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All commodities have followed the same basic
pattern.
prices
yields
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These patterns put more marginal land into
production -- and increase the use of chemicals,
fossil fuels, and water.
Global Fertilizer Use
1950
2000
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Since 1945, severe or extreme soil degradation
has affected an area larger than India and China.
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THE UN MILENNIUM ASSESSMENT, 2005
Stark warning that the ability of the planets
ecosystems to sustain future generations can no
longer be taken for granted Recommends radical
changes in the way nature is treated at every
level of decision-making.
Resilience and abundance can no longer be
confused with indestructibility and infinite
supply.
Source Living Beyond Our Means Natural Assets
and Human Well-Being. Statement from the Board
of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. March
2005
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Limits To Growth Study, 1972 2004
Natural Resources Industrial Output Food
Population Pollution
Source Dennis Meadows, 2004
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MODERN DAY MYTHS
Externalities are real, but because they are
not on our PLs or Balance Sheets, they dont
exist and no one is accountable.
The earth has infinite resilience and
productivity to meet whatever humans need
The earth is a subsidiary of our economies
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USA WASTES MORE ENERGY THAT JAPAN USES
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HUBBERTS PEAK IS NEAR OR HERE
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COST OF OIL 1978 - 2008
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STATE OF THE WORLD 2008 WAVES OF INNOVATION
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RENEWABLE ENERGY COST TRENDS Levelized cost of
energy in constant 2005
Cost of Oil In cents/kwh
Source NREL Energy Analysis Office
(www.nrel.gov/analysis/docs/cost_curves_2005.ppt)
1These graphs are reflections of historical cost
trends NOT precise annual historical data. DRAFT
November 2005
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STONYFIELD FARM GHG EMISSIONS
Metric Tons CO2
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RE-MOOABLE ENERGY

• Wanner Dairy Farm
• Navron, Pennsylvania, USA
• Anaerobic digester for manure from 600 cows feeds
  an electric generator
• Environmental benefits
• Avoids methane emissions from manure
• Replaces local coal-generated electricity
• Eliminates propane and oil use on the farm
• Provides watershed protection from reduced runoff
• Economic benefits to the farm
• Two new commodities for sale electricity
  carbon offsets
• Financial credits for reduced runoff
• Reduced and predictable on-farm heat and power
  costs
• Digested and dried manure reduces animal bedding
  costs
• Positive PR value for the farm

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BRAZIL SUGAR A BIG ECOLOGICAL AND FINANCIAL
SUCCESS STORY

• Sustainable agricultural practices
• Cane is green harvested, not burned
• Waste streams from production recycled for soil
  building or power generation
• Biological pest control program uses beneficial
  insects and natural predators
• Fields reconfigured to prevent soil erosion
• Payoffs
• Green harvesting saves 40K tonnes CO2/yr 3.5
  million liters water/hr at mill
• 90 reduction in pest damage
• Increased biodiversity (189 species of birds,
  reptiles, and mammals)
• Increasing groundwater quality and volume

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Comparing Organic vs Conventional Pay Price
Organic Milk Conventional
Milk Org. Milk Budget. 07
Conv. Milk Budget 07
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