Fall tendency of Total Fertility Rate

1
Fall tendency of Total Fertility Rate
The latest value in 2003
Hyogo Prefecture1.25 Japan whole country1.29
2.25
2.09
Hyogo prefecture
Japan whole country
2.00
2.05
1.75
1.50
1.29
1.25
1.25
1.00
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2
Estimation value of Total fertility rate(Hyogo
Prefecture)
The estimation value of low grade in 1999
corresponds the estimation value of middle rank
in 2004
Estimation value in 1999
Estimation value in 2004
DateThe view research project team of the Hyogo
native mouth reduction society estimates using
the following data //The estimation value
in1999?? A simulation over a long period of time
which continues till 2003?(Hyogo Prefecture)?The
estimation value in2004?National Institute of
Population and Social Security Research?Future
estimation population of Japan?(Jan/02)and?Future
estimation population classified by all
prefectures?(Mar/02)
3
Arrival of population reduction society

• Reduction of the total population
• About 1 million people decrease in number
• Change of population compositionFrom temple
  bell type to inverted pyramid
• AgingOne person is elderly people to three
  persons
• One person is aged people requiring
  care to eight persons
• Multi-death society is coming
• Decrease in the birthrate30,000 people / year
• Reduction in productive populationto 50
• Change of a space distribution of populationA
  city part also decreasing
• Reduction of a household number
• The average household number is 2.2
  persons
• The increase in the number of single-person
  householdsto 40

4

• Population decreasing 20
• (The total prefecture population)

It will decrease with a peak of 2010.They will be
4,550,000 people in 2050 that is fewer than the
population in 2000 about 1 million people!
(Unit104 people)
400,000 more people decrease in number in low
grade estimation!
Total fertility rate 1.40(in2050)
?1million people
Standard estimation
Low grade estimation
Total fertility rate 1.08(in2050)
5
Population compositionFrom temple bell type to
inverted pyramid

In 2000
In 2050
Post-baby-boomers junior?
?Post-baby boomers
?Post-baby-boomers junior
6
(Reference estimation)Population of Hyogo
Prefecture in 2100 Population 2,600,000 people
structurehigh-hipped Jar
The stationary state of population It will
generate around 2065 when a post-baby-boomers
junior will become extinct mostly.
In 2100
If the total fertility rate passes on the level
of 1.3 for a long period of time,It becomes
population composition like An arrogant jar,
and is stabilized. However, this jar continues
becoming thin.
7

• The rate of aging will increase to 36

The rate of aging increases more than twice,from
17(in2000) to 36(in2050)!
Elderly people's ratio is from 1/5 (in2000) to
1/3(in2050)!
100
6.8
10.2
13.7
17.2
18.0
17.0
22.4
10.2
11.8
36.4
13.5
80
11.8
15.5
14.0
60
68.1
83.9
60.3
59.5
40
55.3
52.7
20
15.0
12.5
14.0
11.5
11.3
10.9
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Second-half elderly people (over 75 years old)
First half elderly people (6575 years old)
Productive population (1564 years old)
Juvenile population(014years old)
8

• One person is aged people requiring care at eight
  persons of the people of Hyogo prefecture.

570,000 in the people of the prefecture(12.5)
are aged people requiring care.(One person needs
care for three elderly people.)
9

• Arrival of multi-death society

The death toll per 1000 people becomes 7.6
persons in2000.
15.0 persons' peak will be reached in 2040,it
will become 14.8 persons 205014.8?(To 1.9 times
in 2000)
10

• The child who decreasing in number

The number of birthFrom 54,455people(in2000) to
30,735people(in2050) (56 of in 2000 )
The number of birth per 1000 persons9.6people(in2
000)?6.8people(in2050)(70 of in2000)
11

• Productive population decreasing to 50

Into the society which bears one person by one
person from the society which bears one person by
two persons
12

• Not only country area but city area
  population-decreases

A city part 13 reduction (comparing with 2000)
A district 39 reduction (comparing with 2000)
13
It super-ages throughout a prefecture
-15
15-20
20-25
-30
25-30
30-35
30-35
35-40
35-
40-
14
The number of households which greets a peak and
The decreasing household number
The number of households will increase even to
2,200,000 households in 2025,result in 2,040,000
households 2050
The average number of household members decreases
from 2.73(in 2000) persons to 2.23(in2050)
persons!
10,000 households
people/Household
Average number of household members
Reduction of the average number of household
members by the increase in an independent
household
Number of households
The increase in the number of households by the
increase in an independent household
Reduction of the number of households by
population reduction
15

• The generations who do not have living alone and
  a child increase in number.

Living alone increases to 40 !The household in
which a child is not increases to about 60.
Pic A-2-2 The household rate classified by family
type
16

• Sex role consciousness dilutes and role-ization
  of many one person progresses

Housekeeping related time increases a male and
women decrease in number
Housekeeping related time on the first (week
whole)
?Men?
?Wemen?
327min
?128min
276min
whole 67min
whole 199min
224min
50min
50min
23min
17min
?The equal nature of a housekeeping assignment
made the value in 2050 the Sweden average which
progressed most.
17

• How to spend individual time is diversified

Leisure time (3rd activity time) increases
3rd activity time on the first (week whole)
min
32min
328min
335min
337min
305min
18

• The whole life active-service age comes

As for a life expectancy, man and woman exceed 80
years old
Energy (independence) elderly people also exceed
1 million people
2000?? ??84.6? ??77.6?
19

• The rate of increase and decrease of
  population19502000
• The increase in a city part, Reduction of a
  district part

20

• The rate of increase and decrease of
  population20002050
• Although it decreases throughout within the
  prefecture, it decreases notably especially in a
  district part

21
Comparison with the present population1925,1950
It is the population of the district part which
were a long time ago,there are also twice as many
cities, towns as this.
22
Comparison with the present population1975,2050
The city part which returns to old population?The
district part included in a new stage
23
Changes of population density1920,1950The
distribution of population changes fromAverage
to Maldistribution-izing
24
Changes of population density2000,2050It
becomes strong?Maldistribution-izing ?,city
concentration,The district part to fully automate
25
Housing estimation
The residence not decreasing in number 2,300,000
houses are maintained In order that the number of
households may not decrease, new housing supply
continues and number of housing units changes by
leveling off.
The vacant room increasing in number It increases
by about 1.5 times Since a vacant room increases,
it is expected that the use conversion
(conversion) by reconstruction progresses.
26
Move estimation
Broadening of a sphere of life Move distance per
one person 2000?2050 16.3km?20.1km
Move means The tendency of on foot reduction and
the increase in an automobile does not
stop. 2000?2050 The rate of automobile
use 9increase
27

• Renewal expense estimation of social-capital
  stock maintenance

The renewal expense of maintenance increases from
425,300 million yen (2000) to 1,278 billion
yen(2050).
The rate of occupying in the total social-capital
related investment amount increases from 30.5 in
the 2000 fiscal year every year, and will reach
to 100 in the 2041 fiscal year. ?The social
capital it becomes impossible to be able to
finish carrying out renewal of maintenance occurs.
??????0??
28
Reduction in a worker
It is 30 percent of reduction to twenty-percent
reduction of population.
29

• Reduction of an economic scale

The reduction in labor force offsets improvement
in labor productivity.
With a peak of 23,380 billion yen in 2020, it
reduces and the gross product within the
prefecture will result in 19,940 billion yen
(level around 1990) 2050.
30

• Reduction of primary industry

Although the amount of production of primary
industry continues reduction till the 2025 time,
it serves as a stop-of-the-decline leveling-off
tendency henceforth.
31

• Secondary industry is also reduced.

Till the 2025 time, although the amount of
production of secondary industry maintains the
present production scale, henceforth, it begins
to decrease and will become the scale of about 80
percent 2050.
32
Expansion of tertiary industry
Expansion of services corresponding to a life
style or less children aging, such as silver
related service, housekeeping related service,
and care, childcare relation service
33
The amount of production increases per one worker
person
However, per one population person, it hardly
goes up.
34
A worker's aging
1975 The work force centered on 2529 years old.
35
A worker's aging
The center of the work force aged at 5054 years
old in 2000.
36
A worker's aging
A 50 or older-year worker will come to account
for 40 percent in 2050.
37
The increase in the foreign people live in the
prefecture
It increases from 103,000 people to 158,000
people (from 1.3 to 3.5 of the people of the
prefecture).
38
Reduction of scale of central and local public
finance and rigidity increase
2050 are 74 in 2000 The rate that social
security payment occupies goes up from 24 to 45
39
Cultural Facility Result of AHP