Outreach

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Outreach Exponentials in a Flat World
Extreme Collaboration

• Thomas J. Greene, Outreach officer
• MIT CSAIL
• January 17, 2006

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WHY REACH OUT ? WHY COLLABORATE ?
A pragmatic answer
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My premise isThe basic rules for 6 billion
humans are different (or soon will be)

• For people in developed and (for many rapidly
  developing countries) each period in the human
  life cycle is very different
• Birth Surviving birth is not the problem
• Education Personal, online at any time
• Work Information for collaboration and 5 careers
  in 40 years
• Recreation More leisure timeso entertainment is
  a focus
• Death Live 90 years, 1/3 of this in a new model

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Globalization

• Innovate without emigrate
• Distance is not an issue
• Language is not an issue
• Design can occur any where
• THE WORLD IS FLAT (T. Friedman)

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What is truly new?--IT

• Instant Communication
• Ideas leap barriers of distance and language
• Ideas leap the time barrier using
  IT(internet,telcom,digital media)
• Accelerated Change
• Not print , but now ezines, blogs, virtual
  communities.
• Technology change not at automobile speed but at
  light speed
• Networked global sized people and information
• Instant transportation(almost) and instant
  information

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Outline

• A review
• A brief history of population change
• A brief history of technology change
• What to do
• Conclusion

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A Review of some ideas
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Not linear- (but exponentials) Not lines - (but
j-curves)

• The web is 10 years old, the computer is 50 years
  old, the jet plane is 70 years old and the ocean
  liner is 100 years old.
• Technology creation has been accelerating. It is
  approaching exponential and those human
  activities coupled to technology also rapidly
  changing. (Exponetially?)
• Thomas Malthus, an 18th century English scholar,
  observed in an essay written in 1798 that the
  growth of the human population is fundamentally
  different from the growth of the food supply to
  feed that population. He wrote that the human
  population was growing geometrically i.e.
  exponentially while the food supply was growing
  arithmetically i.e. linearly. He concluded that
  left unchecked, it would only be a matter of time
  before the world's population would be too large
  to feed itself.

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A Review(we know this, but it is important here
, so let us review and ponder it )

• Consider
• Linear change F ax
• vs.
• Exponential f ax
• For example if a2 and x2 then
• (F23 6) but (f 23 222 8)
• And if a4 and N3 then
• (F43 12) but (f 43 444 64)
• For bigger numbers the difference is huge

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• Constant Linear Growth
• Start with 1 object at time zero
• At time 1 you have 2
• At time 2 you have 3
• At 3 4
• At 4 5
• At 5 6
• At time 6 you have 7

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4
3
2
1
t 0
1
2
3
4
6
5
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• But for an exponential growth such as
• Algae cell division
• Geometric growth

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64

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2
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t 0
1
2
3
4
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6
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f(x) ax
Graphically
f(x) x
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A brief history of people (Is this a truly
special time for humanity?)
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Population Time - The Growth rate - a phase
change?

• 35 BCE-Julius Caesar -- 1 Million people
• 2000 A.D. -- 6 Billion people

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World population distribution-an Imbalance
USCANADA310M (5)
ASIA3.68B (61)
EUROPE729M (12)
AFRICA784M (13)
LATIN AMERICA519M (9)
OCEANIA 30M (.01)
SOURCE - HTTP//WWW.UN.ORG/DEPTS/UNSD
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An Imbalance-The world pyramid
By C.K. Prahalad A. Hammond
SOURCE HBR, SEPT 2002, SERVING THE WORLDS
POOR PROFITABLY,
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If the world was a village of 100 people
52 would be women, 48 would be men,30 would be
children,70 would be adults.7 would be aged.
90 would be heterosexual, 10 would be
homosexual, 70 would be nonwhite, 30 would be
white 61 would be Asian, 13 African, 13
from North and South America, 12 Europeans, one
from the South Pacific. 33 would be
Christians, 19 believers in Islam, 13 would be
Hindus, and 6 would follow Buddhist teachings. 5
would believe that there are spirits in the
trees and rocks and in all of nature. 24 would
be believe in other religions, or would believe
in no religion. 17 would speak Chinese, 9
English, 8 Hindi and Urdu, 6 Spanish, 6 Russian,
and 4 would speak Arabic. That would account for
half the village. The other half would speak
Bengal, Portuguese, Indonesian, Japanese, German,
French, or some other language.
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Of the 100 people in this village,
o 20 are under nourished, 1 is dying of
starvation, while 15 are overweight. o
Of the wealth in this village, 6 people own 59
(all of them from the United States), 74 people
own 39, and 20 people share the remaining 2.
o Of the energy of this village, 20 people
consume 80, and 80 people share the remaining
20. o 75 people have some supply of
food and a place to shelter them from the wind
and the rain, but 25 do not. 17 have no clean,
safe water to drink. o If you have
money in the bank, then you are among the richest
8. o If you have a car, you are among
the richest 7. o Among the villagers, 1
has a college education. 2 have computers. 14
cannot read. o 48 can NOT speak and act
according to their faith/conscience without
harassment, Imprisonment, torture or death,
o 20 live in fear of death by bombardment,
armed attack, landmines, or of rape or kidnapping
by armed groups, In one year, 1 will die, but
in the same year, 2 will be born, so at the
year's end the of village will be 101.
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A brief history of technology. (Is this a truly
special time for humanity?)
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Technology Time - The Growth rate

• 3000 BCE --ABACUS
• 1450 -- GUTTENBERG PRESS
• 1837 -- TELEGRAPH
• 1876 -- TELEPHONE
• 1948 -- TRANSISTOR
• 1994 -- WWW GOES GRAPHIC
• 2000 -- DRAFT OF HUMAN GENOME
• 2006 -- ?

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1900-2000

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The pressure Forcing Faster Change

• The cause is Information Technology (IT)
• Ideas as information explode across space in zero
  time , crossing traditional cultural and language
  barriers
• For example, In India, help desks and now course
  tutors serve the english-speaking world
• Information is free? Instantaneous, and global?

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Information Space Change -Is it now in a Phase
Change?

• A water molecule can exist in different phases,
  as it changes phases its world is very different
  , but only in hind-site
• Solid----gt
• Liquid----gt
• Gas ----gt?

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Butterfly- Network effect
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Generation Gap--accelerating change effects?

• "The Generation Gap at Work," studied
  co-existence of four different generations of
  workers within the U.S. workforce and frequently,
  within small offices. To find a framework for
  understanding the gaps across generations and
  offered tips to manage these sometimes baffling
  and tense relationships smoothly.They divided the
  workforce into
• "Matures," born between 1909 and 1945---Matures
  are the silent generation. They value sacrifice,
  commitment, and financial and social
  conservatism. They remember the Depression.
  They're the 'Establishment.'"
• "Boomers," born between 1946 and
  1964---"Boomers value themselves. They're
  competitive, anti-authority. They grew up with
  Vietnam, Watergate, Woodstock. They have high
  expectations. They're diplomatic, loyal and want
  validation. And they value privacy.
• "Gen Xers," born between 1965 and 1978---"Gen
  Xers were the first latchkey kids. They're
  entrepreneurial, pragmatic, straightforward. They
  grew up with AIDS, MTV, PCs, divorce.
• "Millennials," born from 1979 onward.---The
  Millennials are neotraditionalists, optimistic
  and very community-centered. They're
  technologically adept and busy, busy. They grew
  up with the O.J. Simpson trial, Columbine and
  9/11. They're versatile. They write blogs about
  their lives," said Jones.
• What this means to us is that co-workers may have
  fundamentally different approaches to work,
  teamwork, privacy, respect and authority.
• SOURCEFebruary 2, 2005 issue of MIT Tech Talk
  (Volume 49, Number 16).

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3 things are very, very different.
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Informationis free (almost?)

• The Web is Billions of pages,
• Search engines retrieve information instantly.
  (Google is now a dictionary word)?

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It is only information (--and it is free)

• Books --3x1000 to 10x1000
• (to 1000x1000)
• The Million Book Project -CMU, China, India

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Blogs
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2. Language is not a barrier
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35 languages
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3. Knowledge is easily accessed.

• Information Structure Knowledge
• Open Course Ware _at_ MIT-- 1200 courses
• --on-line --free!
• The OCW project has been empowering students of
  all ages, world-wide, with the courses of MIT.
• (Other Universities are joining this effort and
  publishing their courses)

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Open research?

• Project Dspace is spreading--

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The flat world

• is covered with a tightly woven
• information fabric.
• An incident anywhere on the planet
• can effect everything.
• Incidents may be
• Economic
• Political
• Agricultural
• Ecological, etc.

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What to do.
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Collaborative Business Processes
The Network is the Value-Delivery System
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Wisdom enough

• Upon this gifted age, in its dark hour,
• Rains from the sky a meteoric shower
• Of facts they lie unquestioned , uncombined.
• Wisdom enough to leech us all our ill
• Is daily spun,but there exists no loom
• To weave it into fabric -
• ---Edna St Vincent Millay, ( 1892-1950 )

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The Challenges

• Extreme competition
• Globalization
• Rapidly changing technologies
• Forces beyond your control (world events are now
  directly coupled to your activity)

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A New Model?-- (Business Week -- China India)
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Extreme competition

• Established companies should brace themselves for
  a future of extreme competition, which will make
  the pressures of the 1980s and 1990s look tame by
  comparison. Incumbents must understand how
  powerful forces are aggregating once-distinct
  product and geographic markets, enhancing
  market-clearing efficiency, and increasing
  specialization in the supply chain. They should
  respond by adopting a new approach to
  strategyone that combines speed, openness,
  flexibility, and forward-focused thinking.
• Mature companies must learn to be young at heart.
  Boundless new opportunities await executives who
  recognize that the days of slow change are over
• SOURCE Mckinsey Quarterly, 23 May 2005
• http//www.mckinseyquarterly.com/article_abstract.
  aspx?ar1564L221L3114

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Asias edge
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New Economy -No Borders?
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A turning point .
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SCIAM
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Scientific American -Sept. 2005
Economics in a Full World The global economy is
now so large that society can no longer safely
pretend it operates within a limitless
ecosystem. Developing an economy that can be
sustained within the finite biosphere requires
new ways of thinking ------- By Herman E. Daly
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Perhaps we now have the second major enabling
transform?

• Work
• and
• Food,clothing, etc.
• gt
• MONEY -
• Economics?
• Competition

• Instant communication and Text
• and
• Pictures, sound, etc.
• gt
• BITS -
• A Distribution of wealth?
• Collaboration?

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A turning point .
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Extreme collaboration?

• Established companies should brace themselves for
  a transformation of collaboration with
  competitors?
• In a Global Economy
• Where profits can be made by many people who
  think outside the box.
• Some boxes to avoid
• Sell only to the rich or rich countries
• Innovation occurs only in developed countries,(
  or in a western language)

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An Imbalance-The world pyramid
SOURCE HBR, SEPT 2002, SERVING THE WORLDS
POOR PROFITABLY,
By C.K. Prahalad A. Hammond
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New Rules are here now

• Old rules
• People - 1 job for a lifetime
• Government- make decisions in private, explain
  them muchlater
• Compete and monopolize
• (sell a little for a lot)

• New rules
• 5 jobs per 40 years
• The whole world is watching
• Collaborate and reach out
• (sell lots for a little)

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WHY REACH OUT ? WHY COLLABORATE ? WHY NOT?
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Conclusion
Globalized Information Technology may soon
mean Commerce works by selling lots of items to
everyone, (design and build it very well, and get
rich!) Government works by assuming everyone
knows what you are doing, ( so get it right the
first time) Education works by people finding
their passion and learning about it (so learn to
learn) (for 5 careers?) This all can work by
Globalized reaching out and Globalized
collaborating for personal gain Solve the
problem quickly, Because you leave no genius
behind!
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A boy born in Cambridge Mass once wrote
your permanent address is tomorrow
-ee.cummnings