Keith Tovey M'A', PhD, CEng, MICE

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Rotary Club of Wymondham 11th August 2003
Hard Choices Ahead
Keith Tovey M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE Energy
Science Director Low Carbon Innovation
Centre School of Environmental Sciences
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Future Global Warming Rates
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Range of predicted temperatures
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Local impacts

• Norfolk in that part of the UK which is likely to
  be most impacted.
• Re-distribution of rainfall lower summer
  rainfall.
• Landscape/agriculture changes
• Lower summer riverflows reedbeds under stress

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Government Response

• Energy White Paper aspiration for 60 cut in
  CO2 emissions by 2050
• Will require unprecedented partnership activity
  in local communities to ensure on track by 2020s
  ( but no indication of how this will be
  undertaken)

There will be much more local generation, in
part from medium to small local/community power
plant, fuelled by locally grown biomass, from
locally generated waste, and from local wind
sources. These will feed local distributed
networks, which can sell excess capacity into the
grid. - Energy White Paper February 2003
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The CRed ambition

• To engage, enthuse and empower a large, diverse
  community to debate, plan and execute a programme
  to reduce carbon emissions by up to 60 by 2025
• Can a local community take on the responsibility
  for starting to confront the challenge of climate
  change and make a difference?
• Or will it continue to be - someone/somewhere
  else?
• Can we encourage politicians/officials to be
  bolder on our behalf?
• exemplar for the world

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The CRed Community

• Participatory/inclusive
• Partnerships
• Modes of participation (targets/methods)
• Matrix of modes of participation representative
  of real-world complexity
• Spark imaginations
• Centred on Norwich/Norfolk, but links across the
  region, country, the world.

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• The right language?
• 5 hot air balloons full of CO2 per person per
  year
• (4 million per year over Norfolk)

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How do we know the CRed community represents our
region?
Liftshare
Suffolk C. Council
Strattons
Global Commodities
Powergen
Deepdale Farm
SLP Energy
Woodys
Diocese of Norwich
Eastern Heatpumps
Banham Poultry
Camelot Craft
Norwich Union
EEDA
Kingswood School
NEWS
Norwich 21
Farmers link
Norwich Colour Print
Norfolk C.Council
LEA
SERCO
The Broads Auth.
May Gurney
The RSPB
BPS
100
Sth Norfolk D. C.
Alpha Schools
R.Bilbie
SUSTRANS
AEEAC
Amicus
Jarvis
LSI
SMS
EDP
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Norfolk C.Council
Suffolk C. Council
LEA
Norfolk C.Council
Norwich City
Sth Norfolk D. C.
Powergen
Banham Poultry
Norwich Union
EDP
Anglia Rwys
SLP Energy
Anglia Rwys
NEWS
Nitex
Global Commodities
Liftshare
Norwich Colour Print
Strattons
Deepdale Farm
SMS
Woodys
Eastern Heatpumps
Camelot Craft
Woodfordes
BPS
Jarvis
Kingswood School
Alpha Schools
LEA
Maswood Jalil
100
Farmers link
RNAA
NFU
Individual Farmers
SERCO
LSI
R.Bilbie
AEEAC
May Gurney
Norwich 21
The Broads Auth.
SUSTRANS
Amicus
Renewables East
BRE
Powergen
The RSPB
EEDA
Norwich Diocese
EST
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Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 -
Non-Renewable Methods
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Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 -
Renewable
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Despite Government announcements last month we
still need significant development of onshore
wind.
GOVERNMENT EFFORTS to quadruple power generated
from offshore wind farms by 2010 will fail
because it is assuming unproven technology will
deliver higher capacity turbines, contractors
warned this week.
There have been many proposals in past (e.g. off
Wells, 1988), but only Blyth has been completed,
and only one other is under construction.
Offshore wind looses up to 8 of electricty
compared to onshore.
New Civil Engineer 17th July 2003
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Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 -
Renewable
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Our Choices They are difficult

• Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e
  onshore/offshore wind and biomass.
• If our answer is NO
• Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power
• Are we happy on this and the
  other attendant risks?

• If our answer is NO
• Do we want to return to using coal?
• then carbon dioxide emissions will rise
  significantly
• unless we can develop carbon sequestration
  within 10 years which is unlikely

If our answer to coal is NO Do we want to leave
things are they are and see continued
exploitation of gas for both heating and
electricity generation? gtgtgtgtgtgt
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Our Choices They are difficult
If our answer is YES By 2020 we will be dependent
on around 70 of our heating and electricity from
GAS which will have to be imported from countries
like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Algeria Are
we happy with this prospect? gtgtgtgtgtgt
If not We need even more substantial cuts in
energy use which could affect both industry and
our ability to heat an light our homes in the
future. Unless we are prepared to sacrifice our
future to effects of Global Warming
Do we wish to reconsider our stance on
renewables? Inaction or delays in decision making
will lead us down the GAS option route and all
the attendant Security issues that raises.
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WEBSITE www.cred-uk.org/
This presentation is now posted on the WEB
at www2.env.uea.ac.uk/cred/creduea.htm